You’ve Got to be Kidding Me.

Another Gear, Speed Kills

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

Follow @cimini

When talent evaluation occurs for NFL prospects an area of focus tends to be an athlete’s forty yard dash speed. Al Davis was notorious for heightening the speed at combine’s and over reaching for athletes in the NFL draft. He wanted speed on the field and when a match occurs with talent, it’s deadly on the football field.

For us in the fantasy sports world there are scales of receivers that have speed, but are they worth drafting? Year after year the draft occurs and some of these names may have fallen off your rememberance track. Get them back in your fantasy view.

Tavon Austin- St. Louis
In college Austin was a mismatch seemingly as soon as he stepped onto the field. Years from now people may forget the link of Austin to quarterback Geno Smith, but Austin had a lot to do with Smith’s success. St. Louis and Sam Bradford are hoping the same will translate to the NFL. His size at just 5’8, and near 180 pounds could be a cause for alarm.

Calvin Johnson- Detroit
Yes Megatron is who he is, and will appear on almost every freak list, because he is just that. He possesses the strength, speed, and leaping ability to destroy secondaries with what ever weapon he chooses to.

Travis Benjamin- Cleveland-
The second year pro had a semi-decent rookie year with the Browns adjusting to a new quarterback and running back. By bringing in Norv Turner, Benjamin could see even more of a spike in production. He is primarily a speed threat, but Turner will figure out a way for Benjamin to have a niche in his offense.

DeSean Jackson- Philadelphia Eagles
One has to wonder if at this point in Jackson’s career if he would be better suited to be a wide receiver two in the NFL. With McNabb and Vick years ago, Jackson could get away with the deep route plays against almost any corner in the league. Nowadays it’s tougher for Jackson and that diminishes his value on the football field, and hurts the offense. From a fantasy perspective, Jackson has to be looked at as a WR3, due to his unreliability on a week to week basis.

Mike Wallace- Miami Dolphins
Wallace got his payday with Miami in the off-season. Watchful contract eyes will now be on Wallace. Will the payday cause a retreat in his performance on the field, or will he catapult the young Ryan Tannehill to another level? Wallace’s average yards per catch is sky-high and will not go away. As long as Wallace does not disappear in games and can catch around 70 to 80 balls, he will be a constant in the top twenty and likely shoot closer to the top ten/twelve fantasy wide receivers.

Others With Speed, but Not Fantasy Football Worthy
Jacoby Ford- Oakland Raiders
Trindon Holiday- Denver Broncos
Darrius Heyward-Bey- Indianapolis Colts

Top 60 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings

Tuesday, 20 August, 2013

Follow @cimini

Did you hold your fantasy draft back in June or July and now are left staring at a roster you believe to be the best possible? There can only be one hype man of your team and that’s you. By week one you may find yourself needing to upgrade. Rankings by your fantasy league via rotisserie stats are meaningless. Pay attention to weekly rankings here.

After the second week of the preseason here are where the running backs rank.

! Denotes On The Rise
^ Denotes On The Decline

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin !- Owners and soon-to-be draftees worry not. Martin did not sustain a concussion on his knee to the head in week two of the preseason.
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster ^- Foster has not let little nagging injuries in the past few seasons deter his fantasy success. One can escape a couple of times, but the injury bug is calling Foster’s name. Precautions seem to be the main reason he is missing preseason. For fantasy owners Foster is the top ten back that has the most question marks.
6. CJ Spiller
7. Ray Rice
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Alfred Morris
10. Chris Johnson
11. Trent Richardson
12. Stevan Ridley
13. Ryan Matthews
14. MJD !- MJD is quickly falling out of the top tier of fantasy backs. As we’ve seen with top fantasy backs of the past, once the fall begins, the drop descends rather quickly from fantasy relevancy.
15. Matt Forte
16. Frank Gore
17. Darren McFadden
18. David Wilson !- The Giants just have a knack for having that steady backfield. Manning’s had Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw who have all been fantasy studs at one point or another.
19. Steven Jackson
20. Lamar Miller
21. DeMarco Murray
22. Andre Brown
23. Reggie Bush
24. Chris Ivory
25. Vick Ballard
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ^- Green-Ellis’s biggest impact for fantasy owners were his mauler runs for six in the red zone. Still Ellis was an every down back that could provide chunks of yards to those plungers. Giovanni Bernard has been electric in games and in practice. Carries will be taken away from Ellis slowly but surely, and likely a higher fashion of split carries than Ellis has seen in quite awhile.
27. Darryl Richardson
28. Rashard Mendenhall
29. Darren Sproles
30. Le’Veon Bell
31. Mikel Leshoure
32. Bryce Brown !- The fast pace expected from the Eagles has to come with movement of backup players at key positions. Running back is at the top of the list as the Eagles will do all they can to protect Vick’s health.
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Eddie Lacy
35. Ronnie Hillman
36. Giovani Bernard
37. Mark Ingram
38. Shane Vereen
39. Ben Tate
40. Jonathan Stewart
41. Bernard Pierce
42. Montee Ball
43. Fred Jackson
44. Jonathan Dwyer
45. Ahmad Bradshaw
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Joseph Randle
48. Isaac Redman
49. Jacquizz Rodgers
50. Fred Helu
51. Donald Brown
52. Mike Bush
53. Mike Goodson
54. Pierre Thomas
55. Alfonso Smith
56. Joique Bell
57. Jonathan Franklin
58. Denard Robinson ^- Each year there is a new wrinkle unfolded by franchises to muster yards on the football field. Robinson’s use as a Jaguar should be one of the more curious developments in the early weeks of the season. This will not be like the Pat White experiment Miami tried. Robinson will get direct carries from the backfield as he has in the first couple weeks of preseason and at Michigan last year.
59. Knile Davis
60. Daniel Thomas

Know The Commish

Monday, 5 August, 2013

Follow on Twitter @cimini

The days of summer can last just as long as they use to when you were out of school as a youngster. It’s the down time of the year typically, and for a sports fan is ever so toned down. You pick up your Sports Illustrated or favorite sports magazine and your reading snippets on previews of your favorite teams and teams that are dangerous. Just like the previews at the theatre you have to wait that extra three to four months before the show begins.

Just like movie previews the snippets from the article sometimes can be a total 360 of the actual outcome. Just like over/under NFL team total outcomes which can be viewed along with week one NFL lines and NFL totals

From a fantasy sports perspective hopefully you’ve come to the annual decision to limit yourself to a certain amount of leagues. You’re not only doing yourself a disservice but your fellow buddies as well if you join an over abundance of leagues. Fantasy leagues are more competitive than ever and there is nothing worse than an owner not as active as the other eight to thirteen fantasy owners.

Seeding is on the line each and every week. The phrase “tanking the season” is illustrated in the professional sports world in arguments that teams are chasing a draft pick rather than concentrating on the finish line. The same happens in fantasy football when an owner gets over committed in leagues and ditches a sure losing team for more concentration in a different cash league.

If you’re the commissioner develop rules in place that can limit that from happening, or develop a keeper league that forces almost all owners to have solid interest for an entire fantasy season.

One other area I want to touch on while were in the month of many fantasy drafts being conducted. Know your commissioner especially if you’re going to join a money league. How many times have you been approached by a buddy of a buddy that wants to see if you want to join a money league? All of you more than likely.

When it comes down to payment or payout you connection with the commissioner might end up being as drawn out as the A-Rod and biogenesis pending suspensions.

I’ve heard all too often of people never seeing the money they put into a league. You have to figure that payouts in fantasy leagues come right after Christmas and the holiday season. If you do not have a trustworthy commissioner you will not see a penny of it back. Pressing after a week or two in a low-stakes money league becomes an after thought by you, and that is that. You’ve got an avatar league title to show for your money league victory.

Go into a league knowing your commissioner 100 percent. If you do not know your commissioner all too well, than make sure there is assurance of payout. Sites like LeagueSafe and other ventures should be much safer than handing over cash to a buddy to deliver to an alleged commissioner.

That’s all in this blog post. Follow me on twitter @cimini for tidbits daily in the sports world, and keep coming back to notjustagame.com for resourceful fantasy sports and handicapping information.

Which Second Year Starting Quarterback Will Regress?

Saturday, 3 August, 2013

Follow@cimini

Last years success by rookie quarterbacks was at a pinnacle of achievement compared to years past success. Ben Roethlisberger and some other quarterbacks have had success but not to the extent that Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 did in the same year. You can add Colin Kaepernick into that same discussion even though he was drafted a year earlier.

Defenses and NFL coaching staffs as a whole are all about adjusting to new looks. Advanced scouting sooner or later catches up to athletes. Just ask Mike Vick and the mini-success of the wildcat offense.

Of those five quarterbacks three will likely come down to Earth just a little bit, or experience more woes than they are accustomed to based on their success last season. All five can just ask Cam Newton how quick NFL defenses can adjust from year to year.

My suggestion is to not bank on any of the five from being your no questions asked number one fantasy football starter from day one in 2013.

Ranked from highest to lowest in order I believe they’ll finish statistically, with current value factored in as well

1. Andrew Luck
Luck made rookie mistakes mentally last year with his arm, but he had the best quarter to quarter progression of any of the rookie quarterbacks last year. The Colts never really held him down with play call management, and you would expect the Colts to compliment him a bit more with the running game this season.

2. RG3
There is a lot to be seen from RG3 from a health standpoint once he takes the field. Nowadays though a young athlete that trains at maximum capacity for rehabilitation you can’t expect the old adage, “it takes two years” to come back to full strength. Athletes are defeating science more and more and defeating that old adage. RG3 has already proven before at Baylor that a serious knee injury will not hurt his psyche. He understands the ins and outs of the game of football. With a quiet confidence amongst his head coach, Mike Shanahan, the two should develop nicely in year two

3. Ryan Tannehill
This is a surprise for most to see Tannehill sitting in the middle of the pack of the second year quarterbacks (besides Kap). Unlike the other four quarterbacks, Tannehill was held in check for the most part by the play calling of the Dolphins. They utilized their whole tandem of running backs, and game managed Tannehill. Expect Coach Philbin to trust his quarterback even more in year two. I honestly believe Tannehill was ready for more advanced play calling last season. These two have a history dating back to Tannehill’s college days. Miami might shock some people this year in the AFC East.

4. Russ Wilson
Wilson had the Tim Tebow factor as a rookie last season, in which he just found a way to win certain games. The Seahawks never appeared completely out of the game no matter what the circumstances were. Yet, I never became fully impressed with Wilson until the playoffs last year. In the regular season his quarterback play was erratic at times, and overvalued. Seattle has a great team overall and I think that bolsters Wilson’s presence on the team. An injury to big play receiver Percy Harvin does not bode well for Wilson either. I expect the competitive pressure from the rest of the division to hurt Wilson’s play as the season stretches beyond September.

5. Colin Kaepernick
He might prove me completely wrong, but I just do not like the sample size of Kaepernick’s games from a season ago. A full season of how he played and I’d be sky high on him like everyone else. His playoff performances were astounding as well, but the bulk of his success come on the read option. Defenses will figure that out to a better degree than the tactic the Ravens used in hitting Kaepernick. Speed has always been taken away from great running quarterbacks at some point (Vick, Newton, etc). Especially when it comes to the amount of volume break away runs over the course of a game. Kaepernick is going to need to do more with his arm than his legs in his second year as starter. I do not believe from a fantasy standpoint and his current projections that he will be able to live up to that billing.

Quarterback With The Most Off-Season Noise is Retired

Monday, 15 July, 2013

Follow @cimini

In the off-season of the NFL, off the wall remarks usually happen frequently and get fed to the media for hot topics. Surprisingly, this off-season has been quiet from an active players stand point. On the air though, Donovan McNabb has not been quiet on voicing his frustrations over player contracts. Both Tony Romo and Matthew Stafford inked extension deals with their respective teams.

In a league filled with an inordinate amount of young starting quarterbacks and an endless cycle of six to eight teams that are ever-changing the name of their starting quarterback, why wouldn’t those two teams ensure Romo and Stafford are kept aboard?

Syracuse fans are probably some of the most die-hard collegiate fans you will find across the country. I’m one myself. Donovan McNabb had a great career as a collegiate that extended until the age of roughly 33 in the NFL. His remarks and the way his career ended do not bode well with me. McNabb only 36 was basically forced into retirement as no other team took a chance on him after a botched last season with the Eagles, then the Redskins, and the awful ending in Minnesota.

Not to discredit McNabb’s entire career, but he got out of shape in the latter part of his career, when he should have been working to have somewhat of an edge on the field. Tom Brady is only a year younger than him, and Peyton Manning a year older. Neither has had their performance drop off as drastically as McNabb’s.

I hope McNabb’s bitterness of his football exit does not carry over to the booth. We’ll all see once the pre-season and regular season start in the NFL.

Contracts for mid-tier quarterbacks are not going to go away. They are the cornerstones of a franchise, even if an analyst such as McNabb does not agree. Sure, Romo and Stafford are not top tier quarterbacks but they both have more than enough capabilities of leading their teams without a running game. A balanced effort for both quarterbacks could pay dividends to success in terms of wins and losses, as well as cutting back their turnovers.

When Donovan McNabb is voicing proper feedback and analysis he can be a great asset to the NFL network. There will not be any other quarterbacks signing long term extensions in the preseason or regular season, so the next six months Donovan should be fine behind the microphone.

AP’s Week One an Anomaly

Tuesday, 11 September, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The percentage of fantasy football owners that likely sat AP week one over starting him was likely sky high. Minnesota kept it under wraps until near kickoff that Adrian Peterson would start. Even hearing that Peterson would start, the idea of him getting a significant amount of carries seemed minimal. Maybe ten carries if he looked okay on his first few carries.

For a player coming off a major knee injury and having zero reps in preseason, the precaution red flags were up for fantasy owners. Minnesota had barely let the team tackle him in practice leading up to the week one game. Peterson had set a goal to make it out on the field by week one when he first got hurt, and it looked like the Vikings were giving him the start to feed his appetite and fulfill his goal.

Not only did Peterson boost his teams confidence with his presence, he was one of the top fantasy backs of the weekend. Rushing for over eighty yards with two touchdowns. He had a burst through the line and though he did not make too many sharp cuts that were use to seeing, he had enough straight ahead runs to show that he had a very dedicated recovery to get back out onto the field.

Dedication and how the body responds after his first football game are going to be two different things. Bodies have a hard enough time responding to a football game when healthy. Now will see how the knee responds in week two and beyond. Many NFL players have said it takes a full two years to come back 100 percent from tearing up their knee.

A great deal of Peterson’s week one success likely could be attributed to adrenaline and his first appearance on the football field. That is going to go away sooner than later, as adrenaline can’t fuel the body alone. It’s hard to put Adrian Peterson on a fantasy wonder performance but week one may have been just that. Short yardage plunge touchdowns are one thing, but the amount of carries and impact in every down situations is going to be an up and down battle.

For most of the game Jacksonville had kept Peterson’s yards in check, until the fourth quarter and overtime was when Peterson started getting some longer runs.

So was week one a mirage from Peterson? I believe a fall off will occur with him over the next few games to a month. An athlete just cannot turn it on suddenly with minimal practice and a full nine months off the football field. Peterson is a freak athlete but even his body is going to go through the agony of pushing his knee to certain levels throughout the season.

Minnesota will likely tone down his practicing throughout the year, as he will need to continue to be monitored. Peterson is a tier one fantasy back from the standpoint that he will be a “Leroy Hoard” for touchdowns. Games of 130 yards or more that have been typical from Peterson just are not going to happen this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Peterson have more games with sixty to seventy yards rushing than he does of games over 130 yards.