Fourth Quarter Killers For Week Three

Follow@cimini If your diving on your bench and clawing for fantasy points for week three, an area to always look to is players that may be in games that are routs. The value of garbage fourth quarter fantasy points is always there when a team is not giving a concerted effort on defense in the latter parts of games. From a handicapping standpoint it allows backdoor covers to happen. In the world of fantasy sports it gives you an extra six to ten fantasy points to pad to your total. Here is a look at player’s that should rise up this week as fourth quarter killers. Chad Henne Henne is not necessarily starting quarterback material. But he has had some big games when you would least expect it. A few years ago against the Patriots he threw for over 400 yards, and last year as 15 point underdogs against the Texans he threw for over 350 yards and four touchdowns. He has done it before and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Henne have a solid game Sunday. As twenty point underdogs Jacksonville has to be going into Seattle with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Their coach is the former defensive coordinator of the Seahawks and may have a few plays to expose the aggressive Seattle secondary. Andrew Luck Luck may throw for over 400 yards in this Sunday’s game against the 49ers. The high yards may equate to results Eli Manning has had over the last two weeks when he has been pressed to force the issue. The lack of running game from Indianapolis is going to put a huge burden on Luck. Expect the 49ers to get a ton of pressure on Luck and force him into mistakes early. By the time the latter part of the third quarter occurs, Indy, will be down a considerable amount of points, and forced to resort to Luck throwing the ball near fifty times. Vincent Jackson I expect the Buccaneers to keep staying in games and playing tough as they have against the Jets and Saints. Jackson’s last game against the Patriots as a Charger he had ten catches for over 170 yards and two touchdowns. For Josh Freeman to get his confidence back he is going to need a big game from Jackson. Tampa Bay’s defense is not the problem and may create opportunities for Freeman as they did last week against the Saints. TY Hilton If there is an area teams have attacked early this season against the 49ers it has been their secondary. In nickel packages, Nhamdi Asomugha has been exposed like he did as an Eagle. When TY Hilton comes into spread packages offensively for the Colts, they’ll be gearing to pick on the veteran Asomugha. Pierre Garcon When defenses let up, speed kills even more. For Garcon he has racked up a solid two games to start the season off of second half performances. Washington’s woes start with a defense that has been scorched by the Eagles and Green Bay. Thing don’t get easier this week against the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford. If DeSean Jackson and all three Green Bay wide receivers can have mega days, how on Earth can the Redskins attempt to contain Calvin Johnson? Look for Garcon and the Redskins to be trailing yet again in the second half. Cecil Shorts Shorts is the best asset to a Jacksonville offense struggling right now. He’ll have a tough time against a Seattle secondary that does not give up many yards. In order to achieve some success Shorts will have to utilize his speed and ability to run after the catch. Opportunities will present themselves for Shorts in the fourth quarter. Others: Andy Dalton, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Big Ben, Carson Palmer, Michael Floyd

Stretching the Field

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If you’re in a formatted league that gives points based on big plays, then you’re happy to have quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers that have great averages per throw, run, or catch. The impact on receivers that have high yards per catch alleviates the risk some if a player is limited to under five catches. Let’s look at some players that exceeded their positions in averages per pass attempt and per catch on Sunday.

Key Stat Filler Game of the Week: Packers vs 49ers

Both Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick put on a show Sunday. Kaepernick completed almost 70 percent of his passes. Some were blown coverages by the Packers and others were darts in tight windows. Kaepernick seems to not mind being a drop back passer if he needs to be. His yards per attempt was almost eleven, while Rodgers was near ten. Boldin and Vernon Davis had receiving averages of over sixteen yards a catch. For Green Bay, Rodgers had a nine yard average per attempt while Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb put up stellar yards per catch with Nelson over 18, and Cobb over 15.

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning
I won’t list all the Broncos receivers that Manning’s eleven yards per completion had to do with their monster yards per catch. Manning’s night went from basic to unreal in a matter of just an intermission. A special night all around, and one of the freakish fantasy games of all time.

Russ Wilson
Wilson was the sole reason that the Seahawks were able to do anything offensively, as the Panthers negated the Seahawks ground game. He only had eight incompletions on thirty three attempts, and averaged a few tenths beneath ten yards a completion. One of his best games to date.

Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill will always be in the shadow of Wilson, Luck, and RG3. His play though has Miami thinking they’re in good shape to over take the Patriots sooner than later. He averaged over seven yards a completion Sunday and this was with only one completion to Mike Wallace.

Matt Stafford
Detroit has been looking for a back since Jahvid Best had issues with concussions. They have found one in Reggie Bush, who did not waste anytime running wild Sunday. His 100 yards receiving helped pad Stafford’s yards per attempt at 8.3.

Andy Dalton
AJ Green put on a show on Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings and the entire Bears secondary Sunday. Dalton continues to elevate his game based on having AJ Green on the field. The big plays will not stop with the duo, and if Mohammed Sanu can become a suitable second receiver watch for Dalton’s numbers to continue to remain strong.

Wide Receivers

Trio of Giants Receivers: All three Giants receivers reaped the dividends of a frustrating evening of playing from behind. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Reuben Randle all had averages of over twenty yards a catch. Those numbers surely will come down. With the Giants rushing woes it won’t be surprising to see Eli gunning the football through the air on a weekly basis.

Michael Floyd
Arizona provided Larry Fitzgerald with half of the touchdowns he had all season in one game Sunday. Floyd though had the best catch of week one, with an amazing one handed grab with a cornerback draped on his back. Floyd hauled in four catches for over eighty yards for a twenty yard average.

Antonio Brown
Brown had an average of just over fourteen yards a catch against the Titans. It looks like Brown will be used to try and fill the void left of big play potential without Mike Wallace. There are a lot of concerns with the Steelers offensive line and running game, which may hinder Brown’s overall value.

Torrey Smith
By now we have seen enough from the connection of Joe Flacco and Smith to know that these two are lethal on deep plays. Smith averaged over twenty yards a catch against the Broncos. That was on just four catches but his total was just over 90 yards.

Jerome Simpson
Simpson flourished with big plays two years ago as a Bengal. His summersault flip for a touchdown still makes people hit the replay button. With Christian Ponder’s struggles it will likely be an up and down battle for Simpson and Greg Jennings to have consistent numbers. Simpson did have an average of over 20 yards a catch Sunday.

Marques Colston
Colston is sort of like a tight end that complements Jimmy Graham. He is always in the stats sheets and he makes the over the middle type of catches that you’d expect from a tight end. He had five catches for nearly 70 yards near fourteen yards a catch.

Vincent Jackson
Jackson continues to shine as a Buccaneer, as he had his way with Antonio Cromartie Sunday. If you watched the game though it appeared more damage could have been done. On paper though Jackson had an average of 22 yards a catch week one. He’ll remain a top ten to twelve fantasy receiver all season.

Upgrades/Downgrades for Roster Flex, Bench Depth, and Borderline Starters

Follow@cimini The vital last few spots that you consider for your fantasy lineup can propel or derail your fantasy season. Each week I'll break down player's that you should upgrade or downgrade based on their value as a flex, borderline starter, or bench depth. Here is a look based on week one's performances.

Upgrades

Reggie Bush Bush has made big plays for fantasy owners since his days with Miami. Entering with a new team in Detroit it was not known how much he would be involved. After Sunday's all around stellar game, those questions are already quelled. Bush has to be seen as a huge upgrade on any team that he is owned on. Fred Jackson When CJ Spiller said he wanted to get 2,000 yards, Doug Marrone said they would give him every opportunity. After Jackson's thirteen carries to Spiller's seventeen Sunday, it looks like Marrone was bluffing. While coaching at Syracuse, Marrone was key on using a duel backfield heavily. So expect Jackson's week one carries to be similar to what he gets on a week to week basis. Shane Vereen The Patriots have to happy with the way their backfield is panning out. It grew by leaps and bounds with Vereen and Ridley over Woodhead/Green-Ellis. Vereen had another gear on Sunday and seems to be ready to blossom with whatever role the Patriots offer on a week to week basis. As a flex starter Vereen seems to fit the bill perfectly. Hakeem Nicks I was highly concerned on how NIcks would play early on in the season. He was limited throughout preseason and it looks like it was all precautionary to protect his health. The green light is back on Nicks for now. If you have great depth at wide receiver and are concerned about his longevity, see if you can earn a solid trade for him. Julian Edelman Brady loves to spread the ball around and at least early in the season it looks like Edelman has the nod over Aaron Dobson who had zero catches and Kenbrell Thompkins who had only four. It could shift as the season goes on, but Edelman should hold solid flex value currently. Kyle Williams He did not have a big game statistically but Williams was involved in the passing game more than you'd expect. Anquan Boldin is not going to have huge games every week, and that is going to leave the door open for someone like Williams. Williams has chemistry with Kaepernick from repitition last year and seems to have a leg up on the rest of the 49ers receivers. See if he is on the waiver wire and build your roster depth at receiver. Miles Austin It was only a few years ago that Austin made the most of his opportunity and pieced together incredible games. The past few years Austin took a step back due to injuries. Now he is in a different role as Dez Bryant has cemented himself as a top receiver. Austin can now feed off of Bryant's attention from defenses to still be a main threat. With DeMarco Murray's inconsistencies and Dallas's love of throwing the football, Austin is a highly rated WR3 or flex for your fantasy team.

Downgrades

Ben Roethlisberger Just because someone has a name and history does not mean it will be his/her year. That seems to be the case with Big Ben as the Steelers seem to already be unraveling with frustration a week into the season. Coordinator Todd Haley and Ben are going to have to patch things together quickly or it might be one of the uglier years for Pittsburgh. Ben's old tricks of being a fantasy subsitute starter seem to be dismal for 2013. There are much better options to find than Big Ben at this point. Cam Newton We've seen this type of start from Newton last year. Newton feeds off of how he is performing. If he is playing poorly it'll be followed up by bad games, and vice versa. Fantasy owners must consider starting their backup quarterbacks over the next couple of weeks over Newton. If not he will dig you into an 0-3 hole just like he did a year ago. David Wilson Wilson's two fumbles Sunday may leave him in the tough minded head coach Tom Coughlin's dog house. You can not be a feature back and fumble the way Wilson has when he has been given a chance. Wilson's role in the future will surely be downgraded to a much lesser extent in the Giants offense. Ronnie Hillman It's only going to be a matter of time before Montee Ball takes over the head committee role that Hillman was supposed to have. Even Knownshown Moreno seems to be surpassing him. At this point, Hillman should be disregarded unless injuries occur in the Broncos backfield. TY Hilton The Colts are going to run more two tight end packages and that is going to hurt Hilton. Hilton struggled Sunday and had only twenty yards receiving. Teams know when he is on the field that they need to have the deep ball covered. Greg Jennings For fantasy drafts Jennings value was really up in the air. More than likely you got him for a bargain with upside. Well that upside is going to hinge on Christian Ponder, and Ponder is ranked towards the very bottom of all starting quarterbacks currently. Until Ponder shows a couple of games of successful starts, Jennings may need to be benched in your leagues.

Best Catches to Target Percentages Week One

Follow @cimini Often in games you will see announcers spotlight a defensive back in the amount of footballs thrown his way versus actual catches completed. Darrelle Revis only allowed one catch his way on four throws Sunday. Each week on Monday I will give you the reverse. For fantasy owners it is not all about the obvious stats that you should think about. Knowing how many targets versus actual catches is a necessity. Here are some key breakdowns of player's that fared well and one's that didn't when it came to targets there way. The top overall fantasy wide receivers in terms of targets and catches Anquan Boldin- Kaepernick looked Boldin's way often--17 times, and Boldin hauled in thirteen of those targets. Of course those type of numbers put Boldin at the top for both statistics this week. Reggie Wayne- Wayne was able to catch all of the eight targets that came his way. This is nothing new to Wayne as he is able to control his body and catch a ball in numerous ways. He had a fabolous one handed catch and a back of the endzone touchdown on Sunday. Danny Amendola- Filling Wes Welker's old role means Amendola should assume the piles of fantasy stats that Welker left. If he maintains his health ten catches on twelve targets may be on the low end of a week for Amendola. Brian Hartline- Hartline trailed Boldin just by two targets Sunday with fifteen. He only had nine catches though. Fifteen targets is awfully high. Miami had to resort the pass in the second half as the ground game just did not work. Jordan Cameron- Cleveland threw the ball enough to age Brandon Weeden another year Sunday. Cameron was one to benefit greatly from that with thirteen targets, and catching nine of those. Based on Cameron's preseason and his week one performance, he is now to be considered a top five fantasy tight end. Others that had strong outputs based on targets- Doug Baldwin 7 catches/8 targets, Jerome Simpson 7 catches/8 targets, AJ Green 9 catches/13 targets, Brandon Marshall 8 catches/10 targets, Andre Roberts 8 catches/9 targets, Jared Cook 7 catches/10 targets, Kellen Winslow 7 catches/8 targets, Julio Jones 7 catches/9 targets, Brandon Gibson 7 catches/10 targets, Vernon Davis 6 catches/9 targets, Emmanuel Sanders 7 catches/12 targets, Dallas Clark 7 catches/12 targets, Nate Burelson 6 catches/6 targets, Julian Edelman 7 catches/9 targets, Miles Austin 10 catches/12 targets, Jason Witten 8 catches/9 targets, Desean Jackson 7 catches/9 targets, Andre Johnson 12 catches/16 targets Others that did not handle their targets well Greg Olsen Olsen caught half of his ten targets. Carolina's mediocre offense is going to go on the shoulder's of Cam Newton. He needs to be more accurate and involve Olsen consistently on a week to week basis. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams The slant worked to perfection by the Buccaneers offense. Other routes the receivers seemed to be stifled a bit. Vincent Jackson had a big day on paper but it could of been much better. He had thirteen targets and only hauled in seven passes, while MIke Williams caught four of his eight. This is something that Josh Freeman has to get better with and so do his receivers at catchin the football. Greg Jennings It was a disappointing debut for Jennings as a Viking. He caught just three passes on seven targets. Maybe Green Bay was correct in letting Jennings walk via free agency. Eric Decker Decker seemed to be out of it a bit on Thursday, as he had a few drops. Fantasy owners should not expect just a paltry two catches on seven targets typically. He'll bounce back from his rough opening game. Kembrell Thompkins Thompkins showed why he was undrafted Sunday and struggled in his new unexpected role with the Patriots. He had only four catches on fourteen targets. Cecil Shorts Seemingly the only receiver with fantasy consideration with Justin Blackmon suspended is Shorts. He did well last year, but Sunday no one on Jacksonville was able to do much of anything. Shorts was targeted eleven times and only had three catches.

Austin Gives Rams Two More Wins

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