Stretching the Field Post Week Seven

Follow@cimini

Eric Decker
The Colts employed a different tactic to keep Manning from ripping apart their secondary. They decided to blitz and apply pressure frequently to minimize Manning’s pocket. It was a great move as Manning looked uncomfortable. On several plays he had to roll out or step up in the pocket just to get a pass off. All of Manning’s receivers still had great games and Decker was the top dog with eight catches for over 150 yards.

Vincent Jackson
Many wanted to exclude Jackson from their fantasy rosters two to three weeks ago. He had been nearly non-existent since week one. Things were looking even bleaker with Mark Glennon at quarterback. Yet he has sprung back to life with two great back to back weeks. Sunday was his best game of the year, hauling in ten catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns.

Harry Douglas
Douglas was already on a lot of fantasy teams due to the injury woes the Falcons have suffered. Tampa Bay though winless has been a decent team defensively. Douglas though excelled Sunday and was the biggest shining fantasy stud that people wouldn’t have thought to do as well. Douglas finished with an average of over twenty one yards a catch with seven in total.

AJ Green
You can say that AJ Green and Calvin Johnson both wanted to prove that they were the best individual wideout in football. Sunday they both finished with identical yardage with 155 yards receiving. Green catapulted his team to a road victory and bestowed confidence in his quarterback, Andy Dalton. Not even Johnson could match Green’s 25 yards a catch average.

Alshon Jeffrey
It looks like Jeffrey’s is here to stay as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver. After a couple of solid games he was still ranked right outside the top twenty. Now there is no reason that he can be left out of your starting lineups. The Bears are one of the higher scoring teams in football. With the way their defense is playing, it looks like they’ll have to run a high pass volume offense all season.

Top Target to Catch Ratios From Week Five Follow@cimini Vincent Brown San Diego seems to have a rhythm to their offense that is leading to a ton of yardage. Sunday against the Raiders turnovers and a lack of a running game halted success in terms of points. But the Chargers have to be thrilled at how Vincent Brown and rookie Keenan Allen are performing without Malcolm Floyd. Brown caught eight of his nine targets Sunday and can be considered a solid number two/three fantasy wide receiver from here on out. Jimmy Graham There are silly quarterback to receiver/tight end in sync chemistries that are impossible to stop. Similar to how a basketball point guard knows when to throw a cross court alley oop or take over a game is how the connection with Drew Brees to Graham is. Basically Brees is the point guard throwing alley oops to Graham. Half of Graham’s touchdowns have came on jump ball/alley oop throws that Brees knows Graham can get. The Bears were the latest to prove incapable of defending Graham as he caught ten of his eleven targets. Kendall Wright Tennessee mustered a strong comeback effort to take a 17-13 lead in the fourth quarter. Things then unraveled quickly as the Titans couldn’t stop the Chiefs rally. Fitzpatrick struggled in his debut for the Titans for the first half before getting comfortable. Wright caught six of his eight targets with an average of over twelve yards a catch. Fitzpatrick can be a successful fantasy quarterback which means Wright’s chances of having solid weeks will be available over the next month. Reggie Wayne Wayne’s yards per catch are starting to diminish but his overall skillset still has some high strong suits. A few being his route running and hands. Andrew Luck is not going to stop looking for Wayne. He caught six of his nine targets Sunday. Hakeem Nicks 0-5, yes I’ll say that again, the NY Giants are 0-5. I feel bad for Tom Coughlin but the Giants are one of those great teams that fall via the talent pool they’ve kept. Teams are constantly revamping even as a champion. The Giants are learning the hard way that they should have done the same. Nicks has regressed tremendously but has had two good games out of five. Against the Eagles he caught nine of twelve target with over 140 yards receiving. Justin Blackmon Off the bat, Blackmon score a touchdown on a long catch against the Rams. Blackmon finished last season off strong and has the tools to be a top twenty five fantasy receiver. Due to the team he is on and coming off of a suspension many people didn’t know if he’d be in football shape. The Rams have given up a ton of yards this year but don’t be alarmed into thinking Blackmon is a one week wonder. He’ll put up his stats and caught five of nine passes against the Rams. Others That Did Well: Antonio Gates 7 catches/10 targets, DeNarius Moore 5 catches/8 targets, AlShon Jeffrey 10 catches/13 targets, Brandon Pettigrew 4 catches/5 targets, TY Hilton 5 catches/6 targets, Greg Olsen 5 catches/6 targets, Ted Ginn Jr. 4 catches/5 targets, Terrence Williams 4 catches/4 targets, Vincent Brown 8 catches/9 targets, Keenan Allen 6 catches/9 targets, Josh Gordon 4 catches/6 targets Performers That Did Poor: Danny Amendola 4 catches/9 targets, Golden Tate 5 catches/11 targets, Mike Wallace 7 catches/16 targets, Steve Smith 4 catches/10 targets, Larry Fitzgerald 3 catches/6 targets, Andre Johnson 3 catches/10 targets, Robert Woods 5 catches/13 targets

Week Five Fourth Quarter Killers

Follow@cimini

Jay Cutler and the Bears Offensive Weapons
The theme currently with the Bears is that their offense is causing the team to play from behind. Albeit from poor mistakes by Jay Cutler or slow starts. Soon that will shift to issues from the defense. They’ve been giving up a ton of yards that has yielded points. Turnovers can only bailout a team so much. Facing New Orleans will be the latest failure of a Bears defense susceptible to big plays. Expect Jay Cutler and his weapons to be gunning again late. A flurry of fantasy points will accumulate as a result.

Tony Romo
Blending any team against the Broncos right now is a recipe for fantasy success. Dallas has not been able to form a consistent offensive game plan and it has wreaked havoc for a consistent team. Well this week against the Broncos a true offensive game plan won’t matter. The secondary is once again in shambles and won’t be able to correct issues in seven days let alone against Peyton Manning. Romo gets a lot of unwarranted attention because he gets put in these type of 50 pass attempt games frequently. He’ll be a top four week five fantasy producer but be the aching Dallas Cowboys media topic basher at the same time.

MJD
Owners have been waiting for a game that MJD will surpass his team’s inefficiency offensively. This is the golden game where you’ll see a payoff. I actually believe the Jaguars are not too far off from where the Rams are talent wise. The gap is much closer than we’ve seen from the Jaguar opponents in the Chiefs, Colts, and Seahawks. Blaine Gabbert will use MJD more in this game with the ground attack and with quick screens. Once the game hits the fourth quarter, MJD will be the difference as he is the most talented player on the field.

Cam Newton
Reflecting on good moments in your career is hard to not think about once in awhile. Newton’s career is still a mere few years in but it all started in a phenomenal week one debut in Arizona. Now he is back to Glendale, Arizona with a new fire after the Panthers dismantled the Giants before the Panthers bye week. In the second half of that game you could see Cam Newton’s confidence spring back. He’ll put together a fantasy friendly game against a Cardinals defense that many fantasy owners would consider sitting Newton.

Grab my NFL or College plays this week. I went 4-1 in the NFL this past week in LVH’s Superbook Handicapping Contest. Currently I’m four games behind on the leaderboard after four weeks. Purchase my plays here or at kellyinvegas.com

Robert Woods
A quick turn around for a rookie quarterback may not be the best of things. EJ Manuel has done a decent job at home, but on the road he has struggled mightily. Cleveland’s defense will attack and likely force plenty of three and outs for the Bills. By the fourth quarter Cleveland should have a comfortable ten to thirteen point lead that will allot the defense to ease a bit. Woods is showing to be one of Manuel’s favorite targets, and should produce this week in the fourth quarter.

Titans Defense
Tennessee is not getting enough credit for what their defense has provided for an overall boost to their team. The injury to Jake Locker will leave bettors and fans discouraged to take the home dog Titans. Not me. Locker’s replacement in Ryan Fitzpatrick thrives in backup roles and has done it as a Ram, Bengal, and Bill. His payday was granted in Buffalo and now he has zero pressure on his shoulders. Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the other hand have heightened expectations that were not there just four weeks ago. The dink and dump offensive approach with Alex Smith is going to crack soon. It didn’t against the Jags, Cowboys, Eagles, or Giants. All of which are not considered top ten or even twenty defenses. Smith will cave and provide the Titans defense with plenty of fantasy points.

Others: Eagles and Giants offensive talent against each other’s poor defenses, Geno Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Dez Bryant

Best Targets to Catch Ratios From Week Four

Follow@cimini

Jerome Simpson
Simpson has had a couple of solid games this year. The first was in week one against the Lions. Fantasy owners were waiting to see if he would build on that performance. It didn’t happen with Ponder at quarterback, but he re-ignited this week with Cassel at quarterback. He caught seven passes on eleven targets and should be a prime waiver wire pickup this week.

Antonio Brown
The big plays were limited by the Vikings but it didn’t stop Brown from catching balls. He caught twelve receptions on thirteen targets. An astounding percentage. The Steelers are getting closer to their first win and Brown may be the difference when they do.

Anquan Boldin
Boldin got back into the fold after a few weeks of struggling with five catches for ninety yards on seven targets. He’ll have his ups and downs but should still be considered a top 25 fantasy wideout.

Jordan Cameron
It’s a small sample but Cameron is on the verge of solidifying himself undoubtedly as the number two fantasy tight end in football. He is having his way with secondary’s in all he is doing is mimicking what Jimmy Graham does. Jump ball catches in the red zone and speed to flourish against any secondary on regular passing downs have been the norm for four weeks from Cameron. He caught ten balls on twelve targets Sunday, and was the key component to their victory over the Bengals from an offensive standpoint.

Martellus Bennett
Many believed Bennett would decline and fade in a new environment. Instead he has been an upgrade over any Bears tight end over the last five years. Cutler is running the offense just like Trestman would like, minus the turnovers. Bennett knows his role and caught eight of twelve targets Sunday.

Antonio Gates
You have to respect the endurance Gates has shown. He played the last two to three years through injuries on the field. In 2013 he appears to be playing at his best health in quite some time. Philip Rivers completed all ten of his targets Gates way. That dagger came on a nifty throw that Gates hauled in for a long touchdown.

Tony Gonzalez
With Roddy White playing through injury teams have geared to shutdown Julio Jones and leave old man Tony Gonzalez alone. The Patriots changed their game plan late against Atlanta by doubling Gonzalez . It stopped the Falcons from forcing overtime but did not prevent Gonzalez’s twelve catches on fourteen targets.

Others: Deonte Thompson 4 catches/5 targets, Sean McGrath 5 catches/5 targets, Victor Cruz 10 catches/16 targets, Heath Miller 6 catches/8 targets, Coby Fleener 5 catches/7 targets, Andre Johnson 9 catches/12 targets, Terrence Williams 7 catches/8 targets, Julian Edelman 7 catches/9 targets, Kenbrell Thompkins 6 catches/11 targets, Pierre Garcon 6 catches/7 targets, DeMaryius Thomas 9 catches/10 targets

Not So Good: Jared Cook 4 catches/9 targets, Torrey Smith 5 catches/12 targets, AJ Green 7 catches/15 targets, Josh Gordon 4 catches/9 targets, Calvin Johnson 4 catches/10 targets, Brandon Marshall 7 catches/14 targets, Vincent Jackson 2 catches/11 targets

Follow@cimini

Rack up as many fantasy points as you can. To do so inserting some bottom tier fantasy players in poor matchups is a strategy implemented by many. Figuring out the proper players to pick for fourth quarter fantasy points can give you a leg up from a poor performing starter that week. Here are some players to take a key look at for week four.

Eli Manning
The panic button has been firmly pressed in New York, and it’s not on the NY Jets. I expect to hear the typical approach teams take when they’re losing unexpectedly. A team meeting. Grouping together is not going to help this team, it’s the personnel. One strength they still have is under center. Eli and the Giants are going to have design quicker pass plays to get their offense moving. Eli will be gunning all four quarters.

Ahmad Bradshaw
Here is a reverse of extra numbers you can get from a player with a big lead. Bradshaw and the Colts are heading to Jacksonville to face their divisional opponent that they’ve owned for years. The Colts are coming off a dominant win in San Francisco and did so with a reversal of their play calling a year ago. They ran the football well with three backs. Bradshaw did the most damage and did so in the fourth quarter. With a big lead in Jacksonville watch for Bradshaw to carry the load once again in the fourth.

Stevie Johnson
Johnson’s play has been fairly consistent to start the season. This week the Bills get another tough defense as they face the Baltimore Ravens. EJ Manuel had a rough time this past week against the Jets and may find himself in an early hole again against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense was ferocious against the Texans and should make things difficult for the Bills offense. Expect Johnson to tally some numbers in the fourth.

Michael Floyd
Last week the Cardinals offense was stymied in New Orleans. The Cardinals continue their road trip away from home by traveling to Tampa Bay. Carson Palmer has never excelled on the road, nor have the Cardinals as a team. Which ever quarterback limits their mistakes will get their team a victory. I’m expecting the Bucs defense to hold tough at home and create some points for their offense. Palmer behind loves to sling the football and may be able to hit Floyd in the fourth for a td and extra reception yards.

Jordan Cameron
The Browns pulled out all the tricks in their victory over the Vikings. All the Browns need to do with Cameron is call his number. He is a legitimate top five fantasy tight end right now, and is a mismatch against any opposing defense. The Bengals have been terrific against the pass. With Pacman Jones recent arrest, it’ll be interesting to see how the secondary holds up. Cameron is going to get his catches. He is just too tall and a freak athlete to stop for four quarters.

Riley Cooper
Right now any opponent of Denver’s is going to find themselves in a hole quickly in less than can create turnovers. Philadelphia’s defense has been non-existent which puts even more pressure on the Eagles offense in a tough environment in Denver. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Chip Kelly yank Vick towards the end if things aren’t going well. Either way the air attack will be full throttle for the Eagles in the fourth period. DeSean Jackson tends to checkout when things aren’t going well, leaving the door open for Cooper to get some garbage stats.

Others: Chris Givens, Cecil Shorts III, DeAndre Hopkins, Ben Tate, and Pierre Garcon

Post Week Three: Stretching the Field

Follow@cimini Week three is in the books and it’s time to see which player’s did the most with their receptions. Yards after the catch and stretching the field reap the big rewards in terms of fantasy points. Here is a look at player’s that had success in week three. Antonio Brown I listed Brown as a fourth quarter killer for week two. He did much more than have a stellar fourth quarter statistically. He averaged over twenty yards a catch and added to the plethora of receivers that have scorched the Bears secondary to start the season. Nate Washington Days that a Tennessee Titans quarterback throws for over 250 yards you can expect Washington’s name to dot the fantasy spectrum of top performers. Sunday, Locker had an unordinary passing day that was brought to life by Washington’s 130 yards receiving on eight of ten targets. Will Locker find confidence in his arm, or will the Titans rescale back to a basic offense yet again? Josh Gordon Returning from suspension Gordon was the biggest impact player in the game even over Adrian Peterson. Gordon’s presence allowed Brian Hoyer to rip apart the Vikings atrocious secondary. Gordon hauled ten catches for nearly fifteen yards a catch. Donnie Avery Avery had a gem of a day with over twenty yards a catch against the hapless Eagles secondary. Kansas City has a package of plays called specifically for Avery. Alex Smith doesn’t look down the field much and a lot is expected of Avery and playmaker’s such as Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster to take Smith’s short passes for big gains. Avery has small value in PPR leagues and slim to none in others. Jimmy Graham Graham was the latest tight end to join the ranks of shredding the Cardinals secondary. Jared Cook did so week one, and the Lions had some success with their tandem as well in week two. Graham is paying strong dividends for those that went against the grain and drafted him in the second round of fantasy drafts. He had two touchdowns with a near 15 yards a catch average. Nate Burelson Detroit’s loss a week ago to the Cardinals came on a fourth and four in which Burelson could not break a tackle of Tyrann Mathieu. Sunday Burelson was a difference maker in getting the Lions their second victory of the season. He had right under twenty yards a catch with six catches. With him now out due to a broken arm in a car accident, Ryan Broyles will fill in and take a bump up in fantasy leagues. Tedd Ginn Jr The Panthers have enjoyed and welcomed the edition of Ginn Jr to their receiver group. He fits in perfect and relishes his role as the third receiver. Often times a team’s third receiver is a young player trying to work his way up to the number one receiver. For Ginn Jr. he knows that is not his main goal. He is just trying to show he can be an asset as a situational receiver. For the second straight week Ginn has caught a deep throw from Newton. His catches aren’t high but he is stretching the field for the Panthers. Torrey Smith Baltimore was in total disarray as their offense tried to figure out its way without Ray Rice in the first half Sunday. A pick six defensive touchdown and special teams touchdown seemed to relax the passing attack in the second half. Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith connected on a fabulous sideline throw, and Smith finished the day with five catches for just over ninety yards receiving. Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes The Jets resorted back to phase one of offensive 101 basics. Establish the run and the passing game will flourish. Hill and Holmes have hardly been as impactful as a Jet as they were Sunday. Limited receptions for both did not matter as Hill and Holmes received a few big pass plays from rookie Geno Smith. Holmes caught the game winner on a tough grab in which he outran the defender for a 69 yard touchdown. Cecil Shorts III Shorts was tagged as a must sit by many fantasy football analyst, in a tough matchup against the Seahawks. I had him listed as a fourth quarter killer but was impressed with the all around game Shorts had. With Justin Blackmon returning after another week, Shorts and the Jaguars overall passing attack should see vast improvement. Shorts finished Sunday with 8 catches and over 140 yards receiving.