Stretching the Field Post Week Five

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Keenan Allen
You can classify Allen as a one week wonder based on his statistics Sunday. He was able to pick on rookie cornerback DJ Haden and a poorly ranked Raiders secondary to average over nineteen yards a catch Sunday. Allen’s rise Sunday won’t be a weekly occurrence. He should finish the year around 800 yards receiving with three to four touchdowns.

Alshon Jeffrey
Jeffrey tore apart a secondary that has held up solidly for four games. Cutler went into 2012 throw it up any play, any down like he would to Brandon Marshall. Jeffrey is coming into his own. Defenses are shielding Marshall which is allowing Jeffrey’s to flourish. For week six lines head to NFL Odds at TopBet.eu Sportsbook. Sunday, Jeffrey averaged 21 yards a catch with over 200 yards receiving. He’ll likely see more attention now from defenses after back to back great weeks.

TY Hilton
We found out who was more successful in practices at Stanford. Andrew Luck ripped apart the Seahawks secondary and Richard Sherman. They did it by using their speed receiver Hilton, who got behind the Seahawks secondary time after time. He finished the day with his best game of the season with five catches for over 140 yards with two big touchdowns.

Jimmy Graham
Recommendations are always great to look back upon when you hit a home run off of them. Back when fantasy drafts were ongoing I recommended to draft Graham as high as you can, and preferably in the first part of second rounds. No one from a receiving standpoint is coming close to Graham’s stats. He is seven yards away from 600 yards with six touchdowns. With eleven more games to play he is going to put up record numbers at the position. He finished Sunday with fourteen yards a catch.

Donnie Avery
Alex Smith is just one of those unlikeable players that continues to get things done his way. Avery is one of the Chiefs unheralded players that is getting it done alongside Smith on a weekly basis. He made a big key sideline catch in which he roasted the Titans defender with his speed on that play. They don’t throw it long often but Avery is the one catching the balls over Dwayne Bowe.

James Jones
Kill shots are expected when you have a gunslinger like Aaron Rodgers. They use to go to the likes of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Substituting more than admirably has been James Jones. He got a step on the outside of his defender and gave the Packers the comfort they needed to separate from the Lions. Four catches for over 130 yards with that long touchdown isn’t a bad afternoon.

DeSean Jackson
I was one off the Jackson band wagon heading into October. He has shown the inconsistencies to carry on a strong September through the rest of the season. It looks like he has fully embraced Chip Kelly’s offense. Maybe it’s because he is a main cog in it with his speed. Whatever it may be it is working as Jackson had another big day with nearly 19 yards a catch.

Torrey Smith
Smith seems to be on here every week. Joe Flacco threw yet another ill-advised pick six interception in the fourth quarter against Miami. This time he was able to stave off that poor play mentally and deliver the Ravens a game winning field goal. Having Smith as a receiver adds to the ills and thrills of Flacco as a Raven quarterback. Flacco is going to continue unleashing deep ball throws to Smith. They connected on six passes that resulted in over 120 yards for Smith.

Josh Gordon
Gordon’s name is on the trade market but the Browns may want to keep Gordon if they plan on drafting a new quarterback of the future next year. Gordon possesses speed to get open on any down he wants. Success with Hoyer and Weeden in back to back weeks is a strong sign the Browns need to keep him.

Others That Did Well: Julius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Terrance Williams.

Fantasy Injury Update: Quarterbacks Hoyer and EJ Manuel

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Rules were inputted to protect quarterbacks from getting drilled in the pocket. Injuries are going to occur. For the most part though pocket passers have remained absent of injury in 2013. It’s the scrambling quarterback that has seen the effect of unfortunate injuries. Terrelle Pryor took a lick a few weeks ago that cost him a week of action. Jake Locker wasn’t scrambling necessarily but is a threat with his legs.

Thursday EJ Manuel and Brian Hoyer fell to injuries. Both will miss time with Hoyer out for the season and Manuel out for a minimum of two games. Neither Manuel or Hoyer were fantasy football darlings but they were on the radar. It’s not necessarily what impact this has individually from a fantasy football standpoint, but rather the talent on their offenses.

For the Cleveland Browns they know what degree of change their offense is going to get from Brandon Weeden. Weeden lost his job to Hoyer because Hoyer made quicker decisions and made a difference in the win/loss column. Ups and downs by Weeden are something you can expect in a game and that’s impactful when every series matters. His strengths are his arm which can extend secondaries out to play the deep ball.

That was his main asset in a comeback win at home against Buffalo yesterday. But his inconsistencies to stay accurate for four quarters are going to be a burden for the Browns. Without the threat of a strong running game, Weeden’s going to have an uphill battle to climb. We already saw Thursday that he tends to hold onto the football too long waiting for an open target. The Browns organization has already offered enough hints to Weeden that they’ll likely go in another direction next season.

The remainder of this season is basically an audition for Weeden to get reevaluated by other NFL teams. From a fantasy standpoint he will keep the talent of Greg Little, Jordan Cameron, and Josh Gordon effective. For his sake though Weeden is not a viable fantasy football talent until he proves he can play for four quarters without the hiccups of turnovers.

The effect of a quarterback injury is much more drastic for Buffalo. Jeff Tuel showed Thursday that he cannot be an adequate fill in for a length of time as a starter. He may be a practice type capable backup quarterback, but he does not have the talent to win with his arm as a starter. Evidenced by his slow reads and pick six sealer in defeat to the Browns yesterday.

Bills head coach Doug Marrone hinted that the Bills will look to sign a free agent. In all likelihood that quarterback will get reps as the Bills fill in starter until Manuel clears. With Stevie Johnson nursing a sore back, the weapons at receiver are going to be a daunting task for any quarterback to succeed with.

The Bills strength is going to reside at running back. CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even Tashard Choice will likely see an increase in their work load over the next two to three games. Continue to play Jackson and Spiller. At receiver the only Bill worthy of fantasy consideration besides Stevie Johnson was Robert Woods. I’d keep Woods out of deeper league lineups for a stretch of games until we see Manuel get back on the field healthy.

Stretching the Field Post Week Four

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Reggie Wayne
I documented Wayne’s success since 2006 against the Jaguars. 14 games and he has had over 1400 yards receiving. He maintained his average of over 100 yards each game with another 100 with a touchdown Sunday. Remarkable numbers and he finished the day with twenty yards a catch.

Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings
It didn’t take long for the Vikings to see their true assets at receiver in Jennings and Simpson. The formula the Vikings thought they had with AP running the ball, and a duo at receiver to help alleviate the pressure off of AP didn’t help with Christian Ponder at quarterback. Instantly with Cassel the Vikings found success as both Simpson and Jennings had averages of over seventeen yards a catch.

Michael Floyd
While Larry Fitzgerald has played through a nagging hamstring injury, Floyd has been able to step up on the field. He had another solid day with five catches and a near 90 yards receiving. Arizona has played on the road against two strong defenses in the Saints and Bucs. With home games upcoming, Floyd should see an even higher rise in production.

Victor Cruz
The Giants gave more effort in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. They had a shot to pull it out up until the last part of the third quarter. Special team’s coverage proved to be the back breaker to this Giants loss. Eli moved around a bit more and Cruz had a typical game by his standards with ten catches and over 160 yards.

Alshon Jeffrey
The Bears have weapons all over the field and Jeffrey’s appears to be the latest weapon to step up. He got a lot of his yardage with the Bears down 40-16, but helped erase that lead to 40-32. As teams keep doubling up Brandon Marshall, Jeffrey’s will have more opportunities to be a fantasy asset. Keep in mind he missed some games last year due to injury.

Torrey Smith
There was no doubt that Smith should post quality numbers against a Bills secondary with injuries and susceptible to the long ball. Even with Flacco struggling Sunday, Smith had a strong enough game to almost carry the Ravens to victory. He averaged over 30 yards a catch and finished with over 160 yards on the day.
Robert Woods
EJ Manuel and the Bills offense has been up and down for four weeks. They’ve done just enough to capture two close wins at home. It’s far from being even a top twenty offense right now. Some of that has to do with CJ Spiller not rushing as a top five back thus far. Woods had himself a fair game with four catches for eighty yards, including the lone big pass play touchdown of the day.

Best Targets to Catch Ratios From Week Four

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Jerome Simpson
Simpson has had a couple of solid games this year. The first was in week one against the Lions. Fantasy owners were waiting to see if he would build on that performance. It didn’t happen with Ponder at quarterback, but he re-ignited this week with Cassel at quarterback. He caught seven passes on eleven targets and should be a prime waiver wire pickup this week.

Antonio Brown
The big plays were limited by the Vikings but it didn’t stop Brown from catching balls. He caught twelve receptions on thirteen targets. An astounding percentage. The Steelers are getting closer to their first win and Brown may be the difference when they do.

Anquan Boldin
Boldin got back into the fold after a few weeks of struggling with five catches for ninety yards on seven targets. He’ll have his ups and downs but should still be considered a top 25 fantasy wideout.

Jordan Cameron
It’s a small sample but Cameron is on the verge of solidifying himself undoubtedly as the number two fantasy tight end in football. He is having his way with secondary’s in all he is doing is mimicking what Jimmy Graham does. Jump ball catches in the red zone and speed to flourish against any secondary on regular passing downs have been the norm for four weeks from Cameron. He caught ten balls on twelve targets Sunday, and was the key component to their victory over the Bengals from an offensive standpoint.

Martellus Bennett
Many believed Bennett would decline and fade in a new environment. Instead he has been an upgrade over any Bears tight end over the last five years. Cutler is running the offense just like Trestman would like, minus the turnovers. Bennett knows his role and caught eight of twelve targets Sunday.

Antonio Gates
You have to respect the endurance Gates has shown. He played the last two to three years through injuries on the field. In 2013 he appears to be playing at his best health in quite some time. Philip Rivers completed all ten of his targets Gates way. That dagger came on a nifty throw that Gates hauled in for a long touchdown.

Tony Gonzalez
With Roddy White playing through injury teams have geared to shutdown Julio Jones and leave old man Tony Gonzalez alone. The Patriots changed their game plan late against Atlanta by doubling Gonzalez . It stopped the Falcons from forcing overtime but did not prevent Gonzalez’s twelve catches on fourteen targets.

Others: Deonte Thompson 4 catches/5 targets, Sean McGrath 5 catches/5 targets, Victor Cruz 10 catches/16 targets, Heath Miller 6 catches/8 targets, Coby Fleener 5 catches/7 targets, Andre Johnson 9 catches/12 targets, Terrence Williams 7 catches/8 targets, Julian Edelman 7 catches/9 targets, Kenbrell Thompkins 6 catches/11 targets, Pierre Garcon 6 catches/7 targets, DeMaryius Thomas 9 catches/10 targets

Not So Good: Jared Cook 4 catches/9 targets, Torrey Smith 5 catches/12 targets, AJ Green 7 catches/15 targets, Josh Gordon 4 catches/9 targets, Calvin Johnson 4 catches/10 targets, Brandon Marshall 7 catches/14 targets, Vincent Jackson 2 catches/11 targets

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Rack up as many fantasy points as you can. To do so inserting some bottom tier fantasy players in poor matchups is a strategy implemented by many. Figuring out the proper players to pick for fourth quarter fantasy points can give you a leg up from a poor performing starter that week. Here are some players to take a key look at for week four.

Eli Manning
The panic button has been firmly pressed in New York, and it’s not on the NY Jets. I expect to hear the typical approach teams take when they’re losing unexpectedly. A team meeting. Grouping together is not going to help this team, it’s the personnel. One strength they still have is under center. Eli and the Giants are going to have design quicker pass plays to get their offense moving. Eli will be gunning all four quarters.

Ahmad Bradshaw
Here is a reverse of extra numbers you can get from a player with a big lead. Bradshaw and the Colts are heading to Jacksonville to face their divisional opponent that they’ve owned for years. The Colts are coming off a dominant win in San Francisco and did so with a reversal of their play calling a year ago. They ran the football well with three backs. Bradshaw did the most damage and did so in the fourth quarter. With a big lead in Jacksonville watch for Bradshaw to carry the load once again in the fourth.

Stevie Johnson
Johnson’s play has been fairly consistent to start the season. This week the Bills get another tough defense as they face the Baltimore Ravens. EJ Manuel had a rough time this past week against the Jets and may find himself in an early hole again against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense was ferocious against the Texans and should make things difficult for the Bills offense. Expect Johnson to tally some numbers in the fourth.

Michael Floyd
Last week the Cardinals offense was stymied in New Orleans. The Cardinals continue their road trip away from home by traveling to Tampa Bay. Carson Palmer has never excelled on the road, nor have the Cardinals as a team. Which ever quarterback limits their mistakes will get their team a victory. I’m expecting the Bucs defense to hold tough at home and create some points for their offense. Palmer behind loves to sling the football and may be able to hit Floyd in the fourth for a td and extra reception yards.

Jordan Cameron
The Browns pulled out all the tricks in their victory over the Vikings. All the Browns need to do with Cameron is call his number. He is a legitimate top five fantasy tight end right now, and is a mismatch against any opposing defense. The Bengals have been terrific against the pass. With Pacman Jones recent arrest, it’ll be interesting to see how the secondary holds up. Cameron is going to get his catches. He is just too tall and a freak athlete to stop for four quarters.

Riley Cooper
Right now any opponent of Denver’s is going to find themselves in a hole quickly in less than can create turnovers. Philadelphia’s defense has been non-existent which puts even more pressure on the Eagles offense in a tough environment in Denver. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Chip Kelly yank Vick towards the end if things aren’t going well. Either way the air attack will be full throttle for the Eagles in the fourth period. DeSean Jackson tends to checkout when things aren’t going well, leaving the door open for Cooper to get some garbage stats.

Others: Chris Givens, Cecil Shorts III, DeAndre Hopkins, Ben Tate, and Pierre Garcon

Upgrades/Downgrades for Roster Flex, Bench Depth, and Borderline Starters Follow@cimini Do you have the guts to start demoting your personnel that’s useless? Don’t have the wait and see approach. If you’re 1-2 or 0-3 you need to be creating a plan now to get back into contention in your fantasy leagues.

Upgrades

Geno Smith Smith is going to continue to make the mistakes that cause you to gaffe out loud. Results are happening and the future seems in much better position for the Jets than it was a year ago. He has a creative element that Mark Sanchez did not have. New York seems to be calling better game plans as a result. Keep Smith stashed in deeper leagues and consider him a long term dynasty stasher in keeper leagues. Sam Bradford The Rams have been walloped early in their past two games. So why has Bradford cracked my upgrade list? His running game has been woeful the past two weeks. It can only get better. Bradford has avoided the mistakes we’ve seen him make, and seems to be growing comfortably with his new receivers. The matchup against the 49ers will be a big test for Bradford’s continued improvements in 2013. Jonathan Franklin The switch-a-roo maneuvers the Packers have had to do at running back just puts a staple of truth on the fact that running backs are devalued. They have had no problem inserting running backs. Jonathan Franklin appears to be a back that can add a different dimension to the Packers offense. The it-factor is one that any non-scout can see after limited game action. Franklin had that Sunday and should be bumped up considerably in all fantasy leagues. Giovanni Bernard The law firm in Cincinnati seems to be under new advisement from Green-Ellis to Bernard. Green-Ellis can still be counted on for tough yardage. Big plays are the contrary to what Bernard provides. You need that from your running game, and Ellis does not provide it. The Bengals seem to already be making a concerted effort to get Bernard his share of carries. Grab my NFL or College plays this week. I went 4-1 in the NFL this past week in LVH's Superbook Handicapping Contest. Currently I'm four games behind on the leaderboard after four weeks. Purchase my plays here or at kellyinvegas.com Josh Gordon Gordon was too fast for the Vikings secondary and has used that asset to become the top Cleveland Browns fantasy producer the last few seasons. The quarterback situation is not a problem for Gordon as he had a great connection with Brandon Weeden a year ago as well. Turnovers may be the only issue to worry about when Cleveland is in their opponents territory. Ryan Broyles With Nate Burelson now out with a broken arm, Broyles gets to step up in a role no one would have thought he’d be in a year ago. The loss of Burelson and last year’s third wideout, Titus Young, have opened the door for Broyles to be in a prominent role. He’ll be in a great position in one of the top offenses for passing yards in the NFL. Others: Kenbrell Thompkins, Santana Moss, Joique Bell, Ted Ginn Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Bilal Powell, Stevie Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darius Heyward-Bey, Cecil Shorts III, and Alshon Jeffrey.

Downgrades

Mike Vick The early bell rang on the Eagles once again. They looked splendid and ready to overtake the NFL with Chip Kelly’s dynamic offense. Only the rest of the NFL realized controlling the clock diminishes the Eagles plan in a hurry. It’s caused the offense to have a skirmish feel to it which has resulted in turnovers. Vick has been accustomed to being injury prone and one that doesn’t play well amidst adversity. This has the signs of Vick being exiled out of Philly the same way Donovan McNabb was. Christian Ponder After Sunday’s loss at home, Adrian Peterson poked a little humor into the loss starting on twitter that even his daughter was stupefied by it. The finger pointing when losses start to mount usually falls squarely on the shoulders over the quarterback and coach. Christian Ponder’s days as a Viking quarterback have been on the edge for quite awhile. He is getting zero protection from his offensive line. I believe he’ll be the next quarterback to sustain a lengthy injury because of it. Once he is out I don’t know if he’ll regain the job. Carson Palmer The same old Cardinals offensive line and running back issues are lurking its head again. There will be games that offensive guru Bruce Arians can use Palmer’s skillset to offset those issues. But it’s going to be too inconsistent to feel comfortable inserting Palmer in your fantasy lineups. Especially in road games where the Cardinals have notoriously struggled. Doug Martin Part of the blame for the Buccaneers offensive woes has to shoulder some on Doug Martin along with Josh Freeman. Martin has had a tough go and has been stifled to start the season. The former Boise State back is starting to get the predetermined label of a fantasy bust. He is quick switch back that can make up for his poor start with one great game. It needs to happen soon to propel the Buccaneers offense. For now Martin is on the fringe of a top ten fantasy back. David Wilson New York fans are not use to the performances they’re seeing from the Giants. Issues started with David Wilson’s fumbling issues week one against Dallas. Since the Giants have free falled in a new area every week. It was the offensive line this past week. If they’re not going to protect Eli, how is Wilson going to find holes? Anquan Boldin Coming into the season I was tough on Boldin in his role as a number one receiver at his age. Week one he made me eat my words, but it appears the last two weeks no 49er receiver is able to get separation in man to man coverage. Boldin is better suited as a wide receiver two with speed opposite him. If the 49ers don’t pull a trade it could be a long season for Boldin and the 49ers. Others: Josh Freeman and Matt Schaub