Weekly Analysis

Is A Lockout Looming?

Wednesday, 27 July, 2005

Drew Rosenhaus may be the ultimate negotiator in the NFL, but he may be the instigator of a future NFL lockout. Hearing the word “holdout” in the past five to seven years was never a major cause for concern. Approaching the 2005 season though, there is an alarming jump with new agreements not even close. Is this going to be good or bad for the future of the NFL?

This test group of athletes holding out for bigger demands will be the true indicator of how far player’s can test franchises. With the salary cap in affect in the NFL, it’s difficult for franchises to make everyone happy and maintain a great NFL team. It just can’t happen, and the greed needs to exit from player’s heads to realize that. The pay cuts and sacrifices are going to have to be made in order to keep their team on a level of Super Bowl contention.

Terrell Owens is a prime example. His main objective currently is more money. It’s looking highly doubtful that will happen, and if I were the Philadelphia Eagles general manager I wouldn’t budge either. Yet, Owens is needed for the immediate future as he was the main key ingredient in the offenses success last season. This was a team that nearly knocked off the Patriots and should be poised to head back. Instead this side show is going to throw them off a little bit, and likely make way for teams like the Falcons or Vikings.

What happened to athletes caring more about a ring as they get older? The will to winning has taking a backseat to money. Instantaneous success is what athletes want; both in their pockets and on the field. I guarantee if Owens were to get a new huge contract and the Eagles were to have a 5-11 season, Owens would be back in the news demanding a trade. The loyalty to franchises is being abused just as much on the player’s side of things, as from the front office to its players.

The tug of war battles can only be pulled back and forth so much, before one side breaks for good and is unhappy. The revenue in sports has resulted an increase in contracts since the early to mid 90’s, to where it is at today. Contracts have been stipulated by franchises to fit the criteria they fill should fit the bill of that athlete.

What it all boils down to, is that this contract was agreed upon from the get go. Athletes act like they’ve signed a life long contract, when it was a year or two ago that they put their signature on that piece of paper. Honoring that contract and earning every penny of it, should be their primary goal. Instead squabbling to earn millions of more dollars is in their head.

Dollar signs, dollar signs, and more dollar signs. That’s it.

This current stage is going to give the ten to twelve athletes currently holding out their joy. They’ll get signed, but its precedent is only going to cause ramifications in the very near future. The tip of the ice is just breaking, and when more and more athletes decide to holdout next season, the ice is going to crack. The year after that, it may break and that’s when a lockout may be lurking.

It’s outrageous that it will happen, but it’s the best reality show in tell in sports right now. The media and fans are watching the disputes occur back and forth like a childish argument.

Terrell Owens was recently on Sportscenter stating that NFL athletes should have a complete guaranteed contract like they do in the NBA. Wrong, with a roster as big as the NFL just times the “busts” of the Derek Anderson’s, Allan Houston’s, etc times three. The only guarantees should be the ones already implemented into NFL contracts, and those are incentives.

Maybe adjusting from the regular yearly incentives and turning it into recurring would be better. That way if an athlete keeps having Pro Bowl seasons, every season their bonus adds interest upon the bonus they received the previous.

Figuring out a new idea could be tossed around for days, months, and years, but until the ugliest of the situations occurs no one is going to actually sit down.

Get Out The Way

Wednesday, 13 July, 2005

Holdout. That’s the one word you can hear an agent yelling. Specifically Drew Rosenhaus telling his clients to do after a successful season. Rosenhaus’s aggressive tactics have been favorable among athletes, and caused nightmares for general managers. The increased pace of athletes holding out is starting to get to a ridiculous level. An agent’s number one job from the start is to get his athlete the best contract. So once that contract is signed, the player should just abide to it. If the athlete suddenly doesn’t feel he is earning enough money, too bad. Someone didn’t do their job, and that’s why the athlete is stuck in that predicament. Your market value can only reach the level of your ability, that’s the whole purpose of a contract. Sustaining, raising, or dropping your value is what happens during the duration of that contract.

Every athlete is a grown man and needs to make a conscious decision before suddenly listening to their agent. Rosenhaus has had plenty of athletes holdout in the past, and this year alone has Javon Walker, Grady Jackson, and Terrell Owens threatening. It could all just be a clever trick by Rosenhaus to see if the franchises will take the bait. Once August 1st roles around, we’ll see if they all stick to their guns.

One athlete that has chosen to be smart about his current situation is Anquan Boldin. Boldin is in the last year of his rookie contract, and since he was drafted in the second round he isn’t making anywhere near the type of money he should be. It was the main reason why he fired his agent and jumped over to Rosenhaus. Automatically rumors were floating around that Boldin would holdout, and supposedly he was advised by Rosenhaus to do so. Boldin though, decided to do his job like a man and has been attending workouts. Even though his partner Larry Fitzgerald is signed to a mega million dollar contract, Boldin knows his time is just around the corner. If the Cardinals are dumb enough to let Boldin go, then that’s their own fault. The Cardinals loss would be someone else’s gain.

Receivers Terrell Owens and Javon Walker are making themselves look like fools. Walker had one great year, and has let it get to his head. The Packers organization isn’t going to budge on this situation, as they don’t have to. They still have Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson, and will likely please defensive tackle Grady Jackson instead. Walker is only endangering his chances of keeping his slight edge above Driver and Ferguson.

Owens needs to look himself in the mirror and think twice about this outrageous off-season demand. He went from having a miracle Super Bowl performance and talking about coming right back, to then saying he won’t step on the field until he has his contract reconfigured. What kind of picture does that paint from an outsiders perspective?

Just a little over a year ago, Owens knew exactly what his contract stated and was fine with it. It entailed a $10 million signing bonus, and a lengthy deal for seven years. It’s the type of contract that’s a retirement fund times ten.

Switcharoo, as Drew Rosenhaus stepped in and pointed out mistakes that Owens former agent apparently made. Rosenhaus and Owens main concern is the Eagles ultimate control to cut Owens if he gets hurt or production drops in the mid part of his deal. After Owens serious injury last season and being at the age of 33, all of those issues are a job security priority. Still, the risk of injury and being a salary cap casualty were all risks Owens knew of last season. Every person that signs up for military service knows that they have to fulfill their contract and deal with it. They can’t suddenly want out after two years of a four year enlistment.

No other sport has this bad of a problem, and it is going to cast a shadow over the sport soon. The general managers are going to have to come up with a better system to eliminate the alarming misguidance of agents. Look for a new clause of non restructuring to be included, or some sort of non changing agreement. This isn’t Burger King, every great athlete can’t have it their way.

Special Interest

Monday, 11 July, 2005

If anyone is going to invest in anything, they want to get top-notch capabilities in their new endeavor. In fantasy football the latest angle of notching owners is looking for multiple threats. Athletes, especially wide receivers that do more than just play their main position. There aren’t many out there, but a receiver that is in the top three rotation and a solid kick or punt returner is a huge plus. Considering that more and more leagues are adding points for return yardage, you can really bonus up by snagging a slash athlete. The compounding factors and rising use should reach a high point this year.

A receiver is probably the only position that would be worth looking at, if you are planning on going that route. The majority of running backs that see time on special teams are third string running backs. At wide receiver though, if they are in the top three or four on their roster, it’s one of the most attractive sleeper prospective decisions to make. All of these receivers are mid to late range draft choices, so the worries of a non-payoff is irrelevant. Expectations can’t be high if you don’t invest high. A gamble in the mid to late rounds is worth the risk.

Too many owners exaggerate over the value of every pick. It’s not the end of the world if a backup player isn’t producing. What do NFL franchises do when backup’s are ineffective? They cut the athlete in a heartbeat, and sign an athlete with the same type of potential. That’s exactly how a fantasy owner should look at their depth. Take big gambles that could payoff, and give them a short leeway to prove if they can be a boom or bust. If they bust, wow you can cut the athlete for another sub standard athlete or one that’s suddenly risen. If they boom, now you’re looked at as the elite owner in your league, and you can let your weekly bye week stresses die.

With Johnnie Morton being cut last month, the void left is going to be filled by Samie Parker. While the majority of fantasy owners are looking at Parker as a sleeper starter, the bigger sleeper is right underneath Parker on the depth chart. Dante Hall has dazzled audiences with his spectacular returning abilities, and has made his job look easy. People tend to forget though, that Hall was a running back at Texas A@M. He has had to adapt to changing to wide receiver, and has thrived on occasions when the Chiefs went into four and five wide receiver sets.

Hall’s speed and big play ability makes his percentage threat rise by a nice twenty to twenty five percent. With at least eight to ten more plays at wide receiver a game, his stock should be comparable to any major rookie. Don’t bank on Samie Parker or Eddie Kennison manning the starting spots all season long either. Kennison is an average receiver at best that just happens to mesh with Trent Green well. Parker is an inexperienced youngster that could struggle with a starting role.

Out in Pittsburgh, some Steeler fans were disappointed that the Steelers didn’t even attempt to resign Plaxico Burress. The demand Burress was seeking just wasn’t worth the Steelers expense. Burress’s motivation seemed to drop off when he wasn’t getting the looks that he should. A serious hungry athlete would have sought more looks by yelling at his quarterback or offensive coordinator. Burress instead seemed to be content as long as the check was coming.

The major reason why the Steelers let Burress go untouched, was because of Antwaan Randle El’s quick development as a receiver. He went from being a special team standout and fifth Steeler wide receiver, to jumping up the depth chart with rapid speed in less than two years.

Cedrick Wilson was brought in to challenge Randle El for the starting job, and the battle will be a very entertaining eye catcher. If Randle El can win, this may be the last year to expect major contributions from him in the special teams category. A lot of coaches will cutback a player once he has reached starting status. Don’t forget Cedrick Wilson also performed on special teams in San Francisco, so either way there could be a shakeup in the wide receiver or special teams area. Honestly though Randle El’s play was above Burress often last year, and he should get a shot at showcasing his full worth.

Those are the two best slash athletes to take a look at in your fantasy drafts. There may be a few others out there especially rookies, but those athletes are likely to go undrafted in fantasy football leagues. The main key is to keep an eye out in preseason to see who wins the returning jobs and if that’s worth corresponding with their depth chart position.

What's The Rush?

Tuesday, 14 June, 2005

Early excitement and curiosity are continual with football fans. Whether it be a signing, an early off-season injury, or just a topic in general. A football fan jumps into endeavors quicker than someone can blink. Of course football is America’s main sport, but why be so quick to jump into fantasy football leagues? It’s only June, and people are already doing serious drafts. If you’re looking to destroy that team than that is the route to go. Most experienced people will wait and hold off before they have premature drafts.

The number one thing a true fantasy football fan should be doing is planning. You need to be set on the potential ins and outs of all the NFL teams. Look at trends, schedules, depth charts, etc. all to prepare your mind for a grueling draft. It may sound funny but there are a lot of owners who get stuck and lost suddenly when the initial rounds go by. They get anxious and jumpy and may go after a kicker to early or reach for a rookie. Little mistakes like that can be costly.

Anybody is going to analyze that they had a good first four to five rounds drafting. The key is in the depth area, because those players will be needed. Poor play, injuries, or maybe a player that surpasses expectations are all reasons for a swap or insertion to begin. Heck, there will end up being a solid five to ten players that become regular starters that weren’t even drafted. The waiver wire is a very underrated key for fantasy football success.

It’s just comical the way owners are so hungry to begin drafting. Some owners will do as many leagues possible, but that takes the fun out of the game. Stick with maybe four to five competitive leagues, that way the enjoyment is still there. You don’t want to have every different star player on your wide variety of teams. It’s like going to a gas station and buying 25 scratch offs. One of those tickets is going to be a winner, but if you had bought two or three and won, it would have been more enjoyable.

Than of course if you’re in too many leagues, as soon as you’re unsuccessful your competitive edge is gone. It happens in every league, and takes a way from the game for other fantasy owners. No one that’s involved in a 12 team league wants it to turn out to be nine teams that are still active. Everyone goes through their losing seasons, and I don’t care if I’m 0-14, I’m going to play like a losing NFL team that has no pressure.

Any team that loses a lot always has key missing ingredients. They’re missing serious production from an area, and week by week they’ll try to restrategize. Often times it’s either too late or doesn’t work out, but the strategizing helps the owner in the future. They’ll learn from that area of concern and pursue it better in the next year’s draft. Maybe they were getting too much production from one area and not enough from others. That’s when you can go back and see if you waited to long to draft in a position, or just had a dud of a draft.

It’s just not the right avenue to go with early drafts. There are too many injuries and roster changes to go in draft mode. Not until mid to late August should any serious drafts begin. The only thing owners should be doing now is mock drafts.

No Turning Back

Friday, 3 June, 2005

Culpepper’s Adjustment
By Zack Cimini

The mark an athlete leaves in the record books is always distinguished with rave reviews and classic playbacks. Combinations of greats though are even rarer, and when they come along it adds another level of mystique. Jerry Rice and Joe Montana was the number one combo during their years, and today’s football world only one that comes to mind. That belongs to Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. They’ve had non-stop chemistry like a continuing assembly line that just keeps retuning and staying strong.

There was another budding combination brewing to be great, involving Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. Since Culpepper entered the league in 1999, the duo had a soaring fifty plus connections for touchdowns. They both fed off each other, and sometimes let their emotions get the best of each other. Still, the Moss ratio remained the Vikings game plan and there was nothing opposing defenses could do.

In the past, Culpepper was struggling with fumbling problems and making poor decisions at pivotal times. It looked like it would plague his career forever, until he finally grew up when his lifeline wasn’t there. When Moss went down mid way through last season, it looked bleak for Culpepper and the Vikings offense. Lets not forget, the Vikings were using a trio of running backs just to try to generate a rushing attack, and Marcus Robinson was now going to have to be a main option. Marcus Robinson hadn’t been heard from since his career year with Chicago.

The Vikings did lose a lot of close games, but it wasn’t Culpepper’s fault. He played brilliantly, and showed off his arm even more than Peyton Manning. He led the entire NFL with almost 4,800 yards passing. That was close enough to almost knock Dan Marino’s yardage totals out of the book. His vision just became clearer, and he reached that level where the pace of the game finally slows down in a quarterback’s head. He started seeing things that are only open for a split second, which only great quarterbacks see. The bonus of an above average offensive line, and his threat to scramble also helped tremendously.

Moss and Culpepper’s feuding in the off-season is nothing but bitter sentiment for each other. They both realize they’re great players, and could have had something special. There is no doubt that they both have eight to ten years left in them, and that would have put them in a stat book of their own. Now, it’s just a wishful thought, as we’ll never know what could have happened. The scary thing is that Culpepper’s skills are just starting to peak, and Moss will come into this year fully healthy. 2005 could have been a trademark year for both athletes, and in a different realm.

Change is always going to happen as things happen for a reason. Both athletes are going to miss each other, like a couple split that still has deep feelings for each other. Moss is going to have to adjust to a different scheme and quarterback for the first time in over five years. Any receiver and quarterback will tell you a bond isn’t there initially. Timing is off, and the sequential steps have to be taken again like a rookie. So in a sense, it may be harder for Moss to adjust than Culpepper.

A statistical dip for both athletes is likely to happen this season, and is a big risk for any fantasy owner to take with a first round pick. Becoming accustomed in a new setting doesn’t happen over night, and grasping a favorite go to guy doesn’t as well. Both will endure struggles that will have a hot and cold pattern all next season.

New Direction

Friday, 27 May, 2005

Sometimes the more severe consequences in life of being in self-confinement, can stir a different mind frame and personality to a person. In athletics crime is always a related statistic, and usually that player is never given another opportunity.

For Baltimore Ravens running back Jamal Lewis, the Ravens haven’t treated him with added baggage of a criminal athlete at all. He has been with the organization since 2000, and many people forget that he outplayed Priest Holmes as a rookie. Not only that, but the size and dominant speed of Lewis is unmatched in the league. The reverse psychology and support of the Ravens organization, has to make Lewis feel like he has a true family backing him and not just a place to work.

It isn’t the first time a Lewis in Baltimore has been in trouble with the law. Who can forget when Ray Lewis was in an orange jumpsuit, and facing murder charges? Jamal Lewis’s situation was totally different, and involved him making a drug deal over his cell phone. With the obvious evidence in his guilt, Jamal Lewis made the right decision by pleading guilty.

The punishment and severity of his crime obviously could have been a lot worse. But there is a lot of maturing and change Lewis went through from the year 2000. 2000, he was a pressured first round rookie with an unclear future, and made a bad mistake. In no way does that change the fact what he did, but the pattern of deals didn’t continue. If that were the case, Lewis would have been facing Nate Newton charges.

It’s still unclear why Lewis committed the act, as he was signed to a lucrative first round deal. The crime was indelible, like a permanent scar on one’s body from child hood. You have to admire how Lewis handled the whole situation, as he battled the duration of last season with the charges and still managed to have a solid year. The year also featured ups and downs for injuries for Lewis, which could have been a double dagger for him to give up. Instead he finished the year with a huge game against Miami.

When he was back the Ravens were soaring and came close to sneaking into the playoffs. The dexterity and definition of the Ravens without Lewis, is comparable to what the Dolphins were without Ricky Williams. With Lewis out of the lineup, Kyle Boller becomes a target as an adventure arcade experiment gone wrong. With Lewis in the lineup, Boller actually matured right in front of Brian Bellick and the Ravens as a quarterback. It took some time, but Boller’s confidence finally started to peep above with a representation of a leader that can follow, instead of Boller following a playbook with giddy steps.

The Ravens defense has remained strong, intact, and bread for battle for several years, but the finality of a breakdown is always around the corner. That won’t happen next season, but the repeat letdowns of offensive struggles have to disappear. Defense does win championships, but a little help from the offense goes a long way.

Jamal Lewis’s time in prison, has allowed him to re-find himself, and remember his roots. All the hard work he did to get where he is at was almost lost because of a stupid mindless mistake. Every human makes mistakes, but a mistake can propel into several or guide into perseverance. Word out of Baltimore camp is that Lewis has taken the time to his best use, and is mentally right and physically fit even more.

Lewis has been automatically a top five back every season, and notching the top three is a given this year. He averages almost five yards a carry, and has the blazing speed and vision to turn an opponent into a tipsy pretzel dominoe on the ground. New England and Indianapolis will have eyes glued on them, but the Ravens talent all around is hard not to stick near or around the Colts and Patriots.