Weekly Analysis

Quarterbacking Turnovers

Sunday, 16 October, 2005

The constant switch of emotions on Sunday were escalated rapidly by the amount of turnovers. It didn’t matter which game you were watching on the dish. The trail of turnovers had a boomerang latitude swirl. For a change, the majority of the turnovers didn’t have to do with sloppy plays. Defenses were just forceful in pursuit as well as aggressive in the secondary.

Offenses are truly not as functional explosively as they’ve been in prior years. The versatility of defenses has caused a tremendous amount of lackluster performances from offenses. Performances that NFL fans aren’t use to. So what gives with the quarterbacks struggling? Are the defenses too much for them, or were NFL prognosticators getting ahead of themselves?

On Sunday there were plenty of quarterbacks that could have camouflaged with the world ugly. Ugly enough that their careers may be in jeopardy with the word buried. Let’s analyze where quarterbacks Jake Delhomme, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, and Gus Frerotte.

Jake Delhomme
Critics can say Delhomme has cost the Panthers more than he has helped this season. He blew a game earlier this season to Miami, by throwing an interception when a game winning field goal was practically lined up. Sunday, he threw two gut wrenching touchdowns to the Detroit Lions. He seems to be way to lenient towards stud receiver Steve Smith. The magnetism of Smith is great, but sometimes you have to stray away to others. Delhomme took a serious lick and had to leave the Panthers last drive. It’s sad to say, but if he would have stayed in, we don’t think he would have done what Chris Weinke did. Delhomme is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league at keeping his composure for an entire drive. He is at the state that Jake Plummer use to be at.

Daunte Culpepper
Never again will fantasy owners look deep into one season. Blame Culpepper’s errors on a number of problems with Minnesota, but his own are prevalent. The team has went from Super Bowl aspirations to the worst of worst teams in the NFL. The nightmare he is in is going to continue. Minnesota needs a lot of changes, and Culpepper is going to have to stay through them. With all of the losing ahead for him, his play may become built in for a long time.

Aaron Brooks
Aaron is a display of a different quarterback every week. He can put up the performances that wow a crowd, and then others that will make them want to be reimbursed. He is still a young quarterback, but impatience is settling in with everyone in the Saints organization. Against Atlanta Sunday he did an amazing job in hitting receivers, and at times looked unstoppable. When his accuracy is on, he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. The downside that has always stayed with Brooks, is that he is easy to get out of a groove. One hit, a dropped pass, or any type of negative play can throw him off for a length of time.

Gus Frerotte
The veteran hasn’t been getting enough credit. He placed the ball in the right spots against Tampa Bay but Miami couldn’t hang onto the ball. Either that or they were penalizing themselves. For the past two weeks that has been the story with Miami, and for Frerotte that can only boil over. The team is now 2-3 and in serious danger of being stuck in a bad losing streak. Turnovers are never a teams friend, and Miami is making that their own worst enemy.

The collaboration of quarterbacks being torn apart is strikingly high. Even Peyton Manning is being held in check. Call it what you want, but it’s just not a quarterback friendly year. It may be a trend that continues from season to season, or could be a one time thing. Surely, you’ll always need a reliable quarterback for your fantasy team. The key may be to just wait a duration of rounds before jumping on a starting quarterback. Daunte taught us all a valuable lesson.

No Reason To Talk

Wednesday, 28 September, 2005

Running your mouth and then demanding a trade happens regularly in the NFL. More running the mouth than demands. When a trade demand is made though, shouldn’t that athlete’s game excel like their mouths did? Case in point, with last years trade of Santana Moss and Lavernues Coles. One is showing that he gave one team the upper hand on the deal, while the other is dropping balls like a baseball outfielder blinded by the sun.

It has been a tale of two completely different seasons for Lavernues Coles and Santana Moss. Lavernues fantasy value heading into this season was way above Moss’s. All the fantasy checklists for success were in Coles favor, but conversely that has changed to Moss’s checks.

Coles was fully recovered from his foot injury and going back to a Jets team in which he had his best season in the NFL. The remarriage figured to elevate Pennington’s game and bring Coles back to his great level of play. Well, the blame early was on Pennington’s arm, but game footage would show Coles dropping numerous balls and a few touchdowns.

He has been under performing and that could end up down under in a moment. With a shaky quarterback in Brooks Bollinger, Coles value is out of the top twenty five. Indicating anything other than that will all rest on Bollinger’s arm, or should we say shoulder for Jets quarterbacks. One thing that can’t happen is Vinny Testaverde starting. If that happens Coles value drops another ten to fifteen spots. Testaverde showed last year that he should have retired a few years ago. Re-flushing is what the Jets need to do with Testaverde by cutting him again, and signing someone that can actually throw the football.

Over in Washington D.C, Santana Moss is making the Moss name even bigger. So far he has had the best stretch of any receiver, with his closing finish against Dallas on Monday Night football. His stats after only two games should make Coles and the Jets management want to hide. Moss is an electrifying receiver. He has Dante Hall speed but is an actual receiver. That combined is a deadly punch that has deathly attached to it. With Mark Brunell now the Redskins quarterback, airing it out will be easier. Brunell has a great deep ball, that we all saw back in his hey days with the Jaguars and Jimmy Smith.

The main reason why Moss was rated so low in preseason rankings, was because of the poor play of Patrick Ramsey and Brunell last season. Accordingly there was no reason to see a change in the future. Ramsey had no excuses, but for Brunell it could have been pointed on not having a receiver like Santana Moss. That’d make Lavernues Coles feel even worse, but in his favor, he was slowed up a bit by his foot.

Clinton Portis’s game should elevate more, while Curtis Martin’s seems to be on the down side. Another check to Moss, as opening the running game with Portis is going to mean more big scores for Moss.

Lavernues, Lavernues, this is going to be a year where you have a lot of to do’s and don’t on your New Year’s resolution list. The to don’t list, number one note will be to not run his mouth for reporters. He is a good quality receiver and young. Young athletes need to learn a little more on how to talk in performance on the field.

Weird Week in Football

Monday, 19 September, 2005

From Daunte Culpepper to Peyton Manning week two in the NFL was full of disappointments. The top two quarterbacks last season combined for zero touchdowns and six interceptions. The running game continued to be hit or miss for many teams as backs like Shaun Alexander went for 144 yards and one touchdown while Ahman Green could only manage 54 yards. The oddities weren’t limited to the offensive side of the ball. Baltimore’s vaunted defense was completely overmatched, while Indy’s revamped defense only allowed three points to Jacksonville’s young emerging offense.

When Randy Moss was traded to Oakland in the off-season many thought that the Vikings offense would be able to survive with Culpepper as their unquestioned leader. However after just two games it is very obvious that this Minnesota offense is nothing like it has been in the past. Whether it is due to the absence of Moss or the lack of running game due to the suspension of Ontarrio “The Whiz” Smith, it is clear that Culpepper is just not the same quarterback. It could be easy to blame last week’s 3 interceptions on the tough Tampa defense, but this week’s five interceptions to Cincinnati? The only reason for that is Culpepper just has way to much pressure on his shoulders being Minnesota’s only scoring threat. He won’t be this bad all season and he can still be counted on to go off for a huge game on any week, but he is no longer one of the premiere fantasy players.

It is definitely too early to be concerned about Peyton Manning but this week was just weird. For starters it was only the fifth time in one hundred plus starts that he did not complete at least 50% of his passes. I know Jacksonville’s defense is good, but Manning passing for 122 yards with no touchdowns and 1 interception has got to be one of the biggest surprises of this young season. Look for Manning to get back on track next week as Indy goes to Cleveland to take on the Browns suspect passing defense.

Running backs either went big this week or they couldn’t manage much. Shaun Alexander rushed for 144 yards and a touchdown, Cadillac Williams had another great game with 128 and 1 TD. On the other side were Ahman Green, 54 yards, and Corey Dillon, 36 yards. I’m not sure why established backs are having such difficulties getting on track this year. LaDainian Tomlinson was the consensus number one fantasy player, but has only managed 108 yards and two touchdowns this season. Dillon, Green, and Stephen Jackson have not gotten on track yet and have looked pretty rusty so far. They are all good backs with good quarterbacks and should be able to turn it around soon.

As surprising as Culpepper has been this year Baltimore’s defense might be as big a surprise. They played a solid first half against Indy but then allowed 24 points in the second half. Against a young inexperienced Tennessee they allowed 25 points, although 7 were on an interception return, and only managed 1 sack and no takeaways. In their two games this year they have given up 49 points and have only managed one sack and no takeaways. Baltimore’s defense was supposed to offset their anemic offense and lead them back to the playoffs. They have the same core of quality players but they are just not able to prevent big plays. If they keep playing like this their team is in big trouble and any fantasy team that has them for a defense is in trouble also.

While Baltimore has had trouble with their defense it looks like Indy’s defense has taken that next step towards putting them in the Super Bowl. In two games they have allowed 10 points while registering 9 sacks and three interceptions. Their defense has been incredible for fantasy players who were willing to take a chance on them. With Dwight Freeny on the end applying constant pressure they don’t need to blitz their linebackers so they are able to defend the pass also. With this defense and the way Manning can throw the ball it looks like Indy has a great chance to beat New England and finally make it to the big game.

The second week is too soon to make rash decisions on whether star players will not be able to perform like they have in the past. In a few weeks things we should have a better idea as to who will perform this year and who won’t. Until then just stay patient and hope you can stay competitive until the stars get back on track. On a final note, Jake “The Snake” Plummer looked much better this week. He had that interception but was much more accurate and led that final game winning drive.

J

Where's The Arm

Monday, 19 September, 2005

Change of the guard can happen so rapidly. Last week during Monday Night football the excitement of Atlanta vs. Philadelphia was at the same playoff level of their NFC championship game. Even before kickoff, emotions couldn’t wait for the first quarter to start. The fight ignited a quick start by the Falcon offense, and the defense was able to do the rest. Yesterday proved though the Falcons week one performance wasn‘t an indicator of Vick‘s overall game excelling.

Impressive as their win was against Philadelphia, there are some serious question marks with the Falcons offense. Not in the running game, and not even so much at wide receiver. It’s all in Mike Vick’s arm. John Madden and Al Michaels were animated when talking about Vick’s exceptional plays, and would focus on his great highlight plays. Notice that every play they would show, was involving Vick’s legs. Except for his deep throws to Michael Jenkins and Alge Crumpler, his passing game would have been as bad as David Carr’s week one performance. Picture this, without those two completions he would have had a mere seventy four yards passing. It’s true one or two big plays can change a game completely, but a championship team is going to need more than that. A quarterback can’t win a championship with his legs.

The Eagles are the type of team that get stronger as the season nears the playoffs, and there are also plenty of rising teams in the NFC. Atlanta on the other hand plays a similar style all season long. The same stats that happened last Monday night are similar to what happens every game. Great running by Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett, and Vick making plays with his legs is when the Falcons win. Subtract positive days from Dunn and Duckett and the Falcons lose. In all actuality, Warrick Dunn’s ground game is more beneficial to the Falcons offense than Vick is. If Dunn didn’t run the ball like he does, teams would harp on Vick even more.

Their defense is also underrated. For the over dominance in Monday’s game, the final score was only 14-10. The Eagles missed a field goal, and just didn’t capitalize enough on certain drives. The Falcons defense won that game, and has won plenty for the Falcons. They’ll need to stay strong all year to keep the Falcons in close games. They’re one of few NFL teams that are strong on the defensive line, line backing crew, and secondary.

So a week one victory looks great, but at the end of the year no one will remember that game. The only time it’ll be referenced, is if the Falcons and Eagles need to settle a tie breaker for home field. Even at that the Eagles haven’t had a problem winning on the road in the playoffs. Spreading the offense with Vick’s arm, needs to happen. That would scare defensive coordinators into a whirlwind of confusion, and light up scoreboards like a New Year’s celebration. Would scare and will is the dilemma Vick has been in with his arm for a prolonged time now.

Figured Out

Sunday, 18 September, 2005

It took almost five years, but the Ravens have been completely figured out. Either that or there are bigger problems that haven’t came to the surface yet. After two weeks of football, a season in which the Ravens were expected to be serious contenders, they are now 0-2. Early excuses are sometimes a factor, but that isn’t the case here. Baltimore is in serious trouble of having a dangerous setback year, that they may not come back out of for a few years.

Perhaps Jamal Lewis needs more time to get his feet and game conditioning back to Pro Bowl status, or maybe that wouldn’t change his route at all. Two years ago he had his infamous 2,000 yard season, and from there it has been a downhill slide. Lewis looks battered from injuries, personal issues, and being without a fresh contract. Gearing to shut him down has never been this easy, but it isn’t even ten percent of his fault.

After bringing in Derrick Mason and having a returned healthy Todd Heap, the Ravens were hoping to bring Kyle Boller’s right arm out of a cast. That arm must need special treatment as it hasn’t cooperated with its settings. His injury against the Colts may help him sit down and think about where he is at in his career. If he returns to the lineup and plays as the same low robotic quarterback than this team is history. As scary as this may sound, Baltimore’s season rides on Kyle Boller.

A team in the NFL that wants to be successful has to have a formidable passing attack. Running the ball well comes hand in hand if you can do the above. It’s a miracle that the Ravens were able to do what they did with Lewis a few years ago, but that isn’t going to happen anymore. The offensive line has aged and isn’t as stellar anymore, and defenses realize they can afford to leave the passing game open. Every time they do, Boller or Wright hasn’t been able to make the correct decisions. More than often it’s either a rushed throw, quick out, or to the other team.

Contracted behavior is a natural inhibited human trait. The fact that the offense fails to produce on every drive, is demoting to the mental state of the defense. Just because the defense and offense isn’t on the field together doesn’t mean they are two complete separate units. There is too much emphasis on individual positions and specific coordinators for each position. When a team is seeing part of it being useless and torn to an oblivion, it rubs off in a negative way.

That may not rub off on the defense every week, but there are going to be times like Sunday where it does. The offense failed to run the ball for more than twenty yards, while the passing game didn’t take a step across the bridge take off.

Motivation is what drives a defense. Imagine setting foot on the field with all the might in your drive to stop a team. Shutting down opponents is routine, but this time you give up an early touchdown. That 110 percent effort quickly withers down to 100, and so forth every time you start to realize that no matter what you do it doesn’t matter. Your offense doesn’t has a shot like Shaq making a free throw to put up any points on the scoreboard.

To act like this wouldn’t eventually come for the Baltimore defense is insane. They’ve been great for such a long time, and are still a force. It’s just that plays can be made on them, and in years prior that could only be a singular term with the word play. To expect their defense to hold the great AFC teams to under ten points anymore is reliance on prior history. Get past that and don’t let the fact that the team is giving up points stretch your mind from the real plague. A week ago Tennessee gave up ballooning amounts of yards on the ground and even through the air for the amount of throws Roethlisberger threw. Literally the Titans defense looks average again thanks to the Ravens.

The door will shut completely for the Ravens if Boller doesn’t come back a nerve ready quarterback. Before long their will be defensive captains that speak out on this matter from the Ravens. It wouldn’t be shocking to see someone like Ray Lewis voice his mind with a demand. Either bring in a capable starting quarterback or get rid of me.

Improved Stock

Thursday, 15 September, 2005

Downgrades due to surroundings are often the case for plenty of highly potential athletes. If your supporting cast is weak, than it’s just a part of the territory. The athlete that could be great on a strong team slips to a bench or free agent list in fantasy leagues. We all know how predictions can be wrong. Especially in today’s world of sports, where the change is so rapid that grasping a feel for a team is hard to do. Now that week one is over though, there are some opportunities. Players that stock were low a week ago have been placed into the radar category.

Quarterbacks

Byron Leftwich
Leftwich has always harbored around below average stats, even though he has played beyond them. The Jaguars have always kept Leftwich mistake free by letting him grow slowly. Last year he started to have the occasional glimpses of big fantasy play, only to back track the weeks following. It looks like Jacksonville is ready to let Leftwich utilize his arm fully. With the freedom to throw more, Leftwich should now become a mid to low range top ten quarterback in fantasy football.

Trent Dilfer
It’s hard to believe, but Dilfer did impress in his Browns debut. We don’t know how it happened, and don’t expect it to continue. Factoring in the Browns and Bengals usual no defense against each other, had to have been the reason. Still, Dilfer has jumped at least five to seven spots from being at the bottom of fantasy football rankings. That would still make him a non considerable fantasy football quarterback.

Mark Brunell
Here we go again. Brunell will get probably his last chance to be a true real NFL starter. Basically if he can prove something, the Redskins may use him for a few more years. If not, he’ll have to settle for back up duty else where. The Redskins have plenty of offensive talent. It’s time to see if Brunell can gut it out like he did back in Jacksonville.

Running Backs

Lamont Jordan
His first game was average at best, but he displayed what we all needed to see and that’s ability. He had a strong first half, before the Raiders offense folded completely. With Moss and a healthy Porter out there, Jordan will be able to break some long gains. The only problem that remains is Zack Crockett. Crockett showed that he still can do damage, and is likely still their short yardage guy.

Carnell Williams
All the talk about the Vikings improved defense proved to be a laughing matter. Rookies aren’t supposed to be able to make a mockery of a defense in their first game. It’s only going to get brighter for Williams, and the Buccaneers are truly deep, deep, dark horses in the NFC.

Wide Receivers

Plaxico Burress
Eli showed the maturation of someone with a little experience. Little is a key word, but should move into the phase intermediate soon. Manning has a big deep threat target in Burress, and they’ve already got chemistry on the field.

Chris Chambers
Chambers is probably the best talented receiver in the NFL that gets bogged down the most for being on a weaker team. He only had forty receiving yards in week one, but the fact that Miami showed on offense was promising. Chambers is a special receiver, that will make a ton of plays when given the opportunity. With Miami looking to actually throw, Chambers should return to the type of numbers he had a few years ago.

Steve Smith
Questions of recovering from injury were rethought, “I didn’t say anything”. Before anyone could even ask the question, Smith showed what he is all about. A legitimate top ten receiver, who probably has one of the best shots at beating out a Torry Holt, Moss, or Harrison for most yardage in the league.