Over the last ten years the most consistent and best running backs are harder to name than you would think after being asked that question. Out of all the backs in the league there are only a couple left going on their tenth season plus as being an elite back. Curtis Martin just exited and was probably the best of them all. Quietly though at his small size, Warrick Dunn, has been right there to go along with Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor. Waiting for a downward season from Dunn hasn’t happened yet, but is it happening before it even starts heading into his eleventh season?

Just a little bit over a year ago the tandem in Atlanta for years was DVD. TJ Duckett was the bull rush compliment to Warrick Dunn, and Vick was doing what we’ve seen him do since college. The Falcons then parted ways with TJ Duckett. In what was thought to be a questionable move was erased quickly after Jerious Norwood filled in better than Duckett ever had. Now the allegations on Michael Vick are troubling enough to think that Vick’s days may be over not only with the Falcons but maybe in the NFL.

A day after Arthur Blank called a press conference on the issue, running back Warrick Dunn is now declared out three to four weeks after having back surgery.

Wala, all of the sudden the Falcons went from being a team that was going to have a hard enough time competing in the tough NFC South, to being a team without an identity. A back injury has to always be taken cautiously and at Dunn’s age maybe stretched out even further. The opening day for the Falcons is looking like a Joey Harrington, Jerious Norwood, and Joe Horn debut.

Bobby Petrino has to be ecstatic on how well this is shaping up after leaving Louisville to head into this mess of stress.

The impact of Dunn’s injury means that Norwood will be tested even more during preseason. The Falcons were planning on Norwood being more involved then last season, and now they’ll be able to see if he can be that guy. It’s almost an eerie situation to compare Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson. Faulk went from an All-Pro veteran to fading away to a limited role from injuries in a matter of a years time. The team was suddenly Jackson’s and Faulk decided to retire ultimately.

The good thing about this is that Dunn didn’t put off the discomfort in his back and ignore it entirely until a severe or lingering injury happened in the preseason or regular season. Now, Dunn may be able to come back at the estimated time table of three to four weeks. If so, he’ll be able to get in a game or two of preseason action.

Both backs have a shaky value in terms of fantasy, but more upside than you‘d think. Dunn had a great season last year but only had five touchdowns and a low yardage total of receiving yards. Norwood had a crazy average per carry and showed his incredible size, quickness, and open field speed. With Vick likely out of the lineup, 1,000 rushing yards or thirty to thirty five attempts from the quarterback position must happen.

Expect Petrino and his staff to decide to run the ball even more, and hope that will lead to big plays for the passing game. With Vick out of the lineup, Norwood should easily eclipse 1,000 yards and score between eight and ten touchdowns. As for Dunn draft him as a deep thought as a fourth running back. His value has always been steady and you‘ll be getting strong value with him. Plus, players that are hurt going to fantasy drafts usually slide more than they should. Grabbing him as your fourth running back will give you great depth and insurance if needed.

Week one wasn’t just an ugly week on the football field. With eleven road teams winning, Vegas sure as heck cashed in on lots of cash. Last year may have been the year to take favorites on a weekly basis, as they covered 59 percent of the time. If you had done any research though you would have found out that was also the first time that had happened since 1989.

So picking favorites as much as people did in week one is going to land you below .500 on your bets. Notjustagame.com went 10-5, and actually it was 11-4, but we did not change the Washington pick to Minnesota.

After a week like last week it is always key to review how Vegas beat you. There are two key things to look out for, in order to beat the spread. The most important is to not listen to the public. That could be your friends, television, newspaper, or whatever gets thrown into your ears. Secondly, don’t assume that a game is a lock. There is never such a thing.

We’ve broke down five games of last week and ranked them accordingly in Vegas gems of spreads. Also all five were Notjustagame wins.

1. Indianapolis Colts -3 at NY Giants
Looking at this spread all week it looked like the trickiest game on the board. The main reason in thinking that was because the spread was not moving. That means even money is keeping that spread from swaying either way. For those that bet on the Giants covering the three points had to of been sick. The Colts were a play away from kneeling the ball and running out the clock, but were stopped and forced to kick a field goal on a third and two. That was the difference in the Giants covering by a point, and losing by two.

2. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals -7 and above
If you bet on this game early on in the week then you got the spread at the wrong time. It kept jumping and jumping as high as nine points. Everyone figured the Cardinals would blow the 49ers out of their new stadium. The hoopla was too much though and the 49ers stayed with the Cardinals the entire game. What made it worse was the Cardinals tacked on a late field goal to gain a ten point lead. The 49ers then quickly ran down and decided to kick a field goal, and do an onside kick. It almost worked on the field as they recovered the onside kick, but it burned the over 77 percent of people, according to Yahoo, that favored the Cardinals minus 7.5.

3. Atlanta at Carolina -5
A team like the Panthers had everyone boosting them up as Super Bowl favorites. When that is happening additional points are going to factor on a teams side for a spread. At Notjustagame.com we did not believe the Falcons would win in convincing fashion but did believe they’d cover the points. It turned out to be an easy win for the Falcons, and another burn to the 76 percent of people that took the Panthers with the points.

4. Denver -4.5 at St. Louis
This spread really did not make any sense. The Broncos usually struggle week one and this game was at St. Louis. They still hadn’t figured out the running game situation and the Rams were healthy again at 100 percent. For some reason 73 percent of the public thought the Broncos would blow out the Rams. It was not a bad choice but never bet high on road favorites, especially in the sloppy expectance of teams in week one. You did not even need the points or to be worried at all if you bet on the Rams in this game.

5. Seattle -6 at Detroit
Here was a game that all you had to do is study the initial line to see something was not right. The linesmakers had this game originally as a four point favorite for the Seahawks. That seemed to be a little odd and a tight setting for a team coming off the Super Bowl. As the line kept going up in the Seahawks favor (83%) it was enough extra points to seem like a safe cover for the Lions. It turned out to be a great cover and almost an underdog upset of the weekend.

The points are in your favor in NFL spreads to utilize. How many times do games come down to the wire? Usually an easy handful of games will come down to a team either trying to tie it up and having a game ending turnover, or getting that late field goal or touchdown to win a game. That means there will be a lot of spreads this season that will be perfectly set for -3.

Do not ever settle for a half point on your bet. If you have a team at -3.5 buy that extra half a point. It’s better to push then lose on a half point, and it will happen if you do not decide too purchase that half point.

Be sure to check out and listen to our week two podcast as we will break down spreads and fantasy matchups for this weekend. Vegas has already planted some double digit booby traps to try to land on people based on week one.

For all the critics that were worried about what the Falcons were doing breaking up the DVD (Dunn, Vick, and Duckett), have piped down quite a bit. The Falcons knew they had the player they wanted in Norwood to compliment Dunn. Something TJ Duckett was unable to do.

Out in New York there may have not been a more impressive back then Brandon Jacobs for week one. Anyone that watched the Giants preseason games knew this was coming. He dominated the preseason action and is crucial to maintaining the Giants a healthy Tiki Barber. Barber as well as anyone has said he loves the idea of Jacobs spelling him on a few series a game. That will keep him healthy, and let him progress each and every series.

With Jacobs out on the field he bruises teams. John Madden was saying that Jacobs reminds him a lot of Jerome Bettis with his agility, size, and foot speed. Jacobs looks even better than that comparison, with a lot more foot speed and power then Bettis had at least over his last eight years in the NFL.

For fantasy purposes owners with Tiki Barber better start worrying at the high cost of attaining Barber in past drafts. We warned not to expect the same numbers from Barber especially in the touchdown department. Jacobs is going to be the main guy inside the five yard line, and in any short yardage situation.

Based on Tiki Barber’s overall friendliness outlook to the game of football, he’ll likely be fine with that. Did anyone else notice how friendly Barber and the Colts defensive players were acting after he ran the ball? Each burst by Barber the Colts would help him up, and Barber would tap them on the helmet. It has been a long time since we’ve seen that going on in football, especially when every run was seven yards or more.

Hopefully you already have Jacobs on your roster if you drafted Barber. If not it may not be too early to try and acquire Jacobs. Sure his value may be a bit too high for trade sake, but at least begin negotiating. Get in that owner’s head for a week or two until he realizes he needs to unleash Jacobs. We all know that no one is going to start Jacobs unless Barber goes down, so any owner will be willing to trade him.

The Giants should have beat the Colts if they would have kept plugging away at the running game. How does a team stop rushing the football in key stretches of the game? They were averaging over seven yards a carry but would halt their own progress on a drive by putting the ball in Eli’s hands or unforced penalties. For Tiki to only have 18 carries and Jacobs 8, cost the Giants that football game.

On the flipside, the Falcons did what winning teams do. They ran the football down the Panthers throats and it eventually paid off. Their team controlled and dominated the running game with 48 rushing attempts. Dunn had 29, Norwood 10, Vick 7, and Griffith one. They had the running game going and stuck to it for the entire game. It’s going to be very tough for any defense to stop the assault that the Falcons have planned this season. Dunn was the main factor last season and now defenses can’t rest a bit like they when Duckett would spell Dunn. Norwood has that explosiveness and speed that Duckett lacked, and for now Vick is running freely like he did in the past. That’ll likely tone down a bit as Vick was taken quite a few hard hits on some of his scrambles out of the pocket.

Clearly when you’re looking at having an effective running game, you need two strong backs. The Giants and Falcons look to be the leading runners in that category, and that gives them a tremendous edge to get a few extra wins. The type of wins that come down to having that fourth quarter ability to drowned seven to eight minutes off the clock. There are lots of teams that think they have the right duo but none are the staggeringly different runners like the Falcons and Giants can throw at you.

Teams are finally letting loose and unveiling the names of their starters. What significance does this have for your waiver wire and last minute fantasy football drafts?

Chad Pennington was officially named the starter by the Jets, and that comes as no surprise. He knows the offense and when healthy is near the top of the league in quarterback rating. Another main reason why he is the starter from the beginning is for the Jets to get their final look at Pennington.

Durability is not the lone question when it comes to Pennington. He needs to reestablish himself and he’ll have fun doing it without Curtis Martin. It has been plenty of time since Pennington showed his prowess as a quarterback in the NFL in 2002. In 2003 and 2004 he had poor seasons. His career as a starting quarterback in the future of the NFL rests on his first month of this season.

Pennington should do fine and keep the Jets from thinking of inserting Ramsey or Clemons. No one is expecting great things from the Jets so that plays in the favor of Pennington. He should be able to let loose and show his true colors. He already has a huge chip on his shoulder to stay away from injuries. Being a catalyst in a Jets near .500 season would mean Pennington being a Jet for a bit more.

Fantasy wise Pennington will be a capable backup. For several reasons including his weak arm and the Jets limited offense. They will likely be down quite a bit which will result in more turnovers offensively. No one wants to start at quarterback that is turnover prone. It’s too costly to lose those valuable points in tight fantasy football head to head matchups.

Over in Tennessee the Titans made a shocking bold decision by naming Travis Henry as their starter. No one really thought of or gave consideration for Henry to win the job. Simply because since he was traded from Buffalo he has been unheard of. Last year he lost the starting role to Chris Brown, and did not do too well when Brown was hurt. Then he was suspended and the drafting of Lendale White made the outcome of Travis Henry’s days foreseeable as a non Titan.

With Henry being named the starter it shows how much of a disappointment Lendale White has been and that Chris Brown has not become fully healthy. Tennessee has weapons offensively to make Travis Henry a decent second starting running back in majority leagues. Volek can deliver the football and there are even hints that Kerry Collins could be the starter. So offensively, the Titans should be fine.

Henry has been dominant in years past with Buffalo and must have showed something stellar to push him so quickly back in the fold. Some sort of recommitment to the game of football must have clicked in his head. Any thoughts of a turn around towards his 02’ or 03’ fantasy football numbers are a bit far fetched.

He will be lucky to get fifteen carries a game but his big play ability is what makes him a decent fantasy back. As a Buffalo Bill he never had the huge amount of carries that would warrant the numbers he put up. He just made the most out of every carry.

The platoon of backs in Tennessee is long and maybe too much too even think about for a fantasy football team. Anytime a Pro Bowl back is a starter again it just is too much to pass on. He has to have extremely fresh legs from not touching the football that much, and he is only entering his sixth season in the NFL. Sure, Henry may lose the starting job by October but do not play “what ifs” in his case. You have bench spots for a reason on your fantasy squads.

Lastly, a player that was huge on sleeper draft boards last season is presumably a fantasy throw away this season. The Arizona Cardinals went out and signed Edgerrin James and that automatically ended any thoughts of JJ Arrington. Anyone that watched him last season saw how poor he did and the disastrous Cardinals offensive line. Well folks, JJ has had a darn good preseason and has been named the official backup by beating out Marcel Shipp.

The difference with Arrington this season thus far seems to be his bulking up a bit which has added a Warrick Dunn type flash to his running style. Against the Bears in last weeks preseason game he was bursting through holes and getting plenty of yards. It was hard to tell who was running the football.

The Cardinals also ran the football thirty plus times in that preseason game and figure to hand the ball off more this regular season. Edgerrin James has not received that much playing time in preseason, so do not expect him to suddenly get a ton of carries. Arrington will see enough playing time to get four to five fantasy points a week on yardage alone. If you have Edgerrin James and want solid insurance we suggest you draft Arrington as a handcuff.

Fantasy drafts should all about be wrapped up. Hopefully you did not reach for a quarterback after the selections of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. After them, there is a solid second tier of quarterbacks that can contribute well on fantasy squads. They are quarterbacks though that can fall to you deep into fantasy football drafts.

Stay tuned for bi weekly updates on all positions of rankings throughout the NFL season.

1. Peyton Manning
Any questions here than you either have not watched football in years or have are a non sports fan that was swindled into your office fantasy football league. Manning may never have the ridiculous touchdown numbers than he did a few years ago, but he is as automatic as you can have.

2. Tom Brady
Marvelous Brady has kept ringing up solid seasons year in and year out. Quietly you can compare him to Manning and get almost the same results. You may even be able to wait a round or two after Manning is selected to snatch Brady.

3. Donovan McNabb
He seems to be fully healthy and should be ready to move on with the cancerous Terrell Owens gone. The addition of Donte Stallworth will allow McNabb to air it out a bit. The best thing for McNabb is the decision for the Eagles to return to their old style. Which will involve utilizing Brian Westbrook again, who is an underrated pass catching back.

4. Trent Green
He had a down year for touchdown passes in 2005. Before last year though he was on a tear for three straight years with around 25 touchdowns and an easy 4,000 yards. Those are hard numbers to resist even if the Chiefs run the ball to death with Larry Johnson. The simple fact is that Green is at this position because of the weakening class of strength at the quarterback position. You could argue with any quarterback from five to nine that could go here, but Green is the consistent quarterback.

5. Carson Palmer
Can he last an entire season with questions in the back of his mind? Yes, he looked fantastic in PRESEASON action, but once that turns into four quarters of brutal action things will be different. Regardless his skills are too good to pass up and his progression as a quarterback in the NFL has been amazing.

6. Kurt Warner
His weapons are better than what he had in his hey day with the Rams. Everyone has downed Warner but he is a savvy veteran and can not screw up with the tools he has. Last year Warner did not have the dump off back like he had with Faulk and even Barber with the Giants. Now he has Edgerrin James and Warner suddenly feels like he can play another ten years. Too bad for him is the fact that Leinart is behind him. Don’t worry about the presence of Leinart. If the time comes, which shouldn’t be until late in the season, then worry. Until then, Warner is going to be a monster as a fantasy quarterback.

7. Matt Hasselbeck
The only reason he is here is because we all know that Shaun Alexander is a touchdown machine. Their offense runs through him, and the passing game comes a distant second. Even with that Hasselbeck has been a great fantasy quarterback. Playing the Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers twice a piece will do that.

8. Marc Bulger
All he has to do is stay healthy. Hopefully the change in the offensive philosophy will protect Bulger and help bring his name where it deserves to be in the league. He delivers a great ball and has the smarts to be the leader of this team for years.

9. Jake Delhomme
Delhomme is a veteran that knows what he needs to do. He has never been a huge fantasy quarterback but the running game may suffer early on. That means Delhomme will be throwing a bit more. He already has an amazing connection with Steve Smith, and should love possession receiver Keyshawn Johnson.

10. Daunte Culpepper
Give him some time to break in again. He has done okay thus far but has not received the necessary snaps he should have in preseason. Miami may suffer from that decision early on in the season. One thing that stood out is the fact that Culpepper still has fumbling woes. He needs to control that to be an elite fantasy quarterback.

11. Eli Manning
His accuracy has been the big question mark along with his youth. Everyone is expecting a tremendous leap of progression from last season, but don’t expect the crop before it is planted. Tiki Barber’s MVP season made Manning look better than he did last season. If Barber tails off a bit the demand may be too much for Eli.

12. Mike Vick
Some day Vick is going to live up to his hype. It may not be this year, but even a slight increase in his passing skills will land him this spot. Don’t overlook his running skills which makes him the only quarterback that you can start as an illegal third running back.

The rest

13. Jake Plummer
14. Drew Bledsoe
15. Byron Leftwich
16. Drew Brees
17. Brett Favre
18. Ben Roethlisberger
19. Mark Brunell
20. David Carr
21. Chad Pennington
22. Philip Rivers
23. Steve McNair
24. Aaron Brooks
25. Chris Simms
26. Jon Kitna
27. Brad Johnson
28. Charlie Frye
29. JP Losman
30. Billy Volek
31. Alex Smith
32. Rex Grossman

Take a look at fantasy football draft recaps and you’ll see a familiar trend. Many owners are jumping on Ronnie Brown like he is an all pro running back with continuation aspirations. Sure he is headed there, but based on last season there needs to be more shown from Brown. The fact that Ricky Williams is out of the picture does not guarantee a thing. If anything it could have an adverse affect as Williams created that extra motivation for Brown.

Even though people will argue the best back in Miami last year was Williams. You could blame the fact that Brown was a rookie or even the Dolphins offensive line, but Williams did factor more and more as the main back as the Dolphins great finish winded down. It is a stretch by far to include Brown now as a top five running back. Ranking him near the bottom of the top ten with an upside asterisk seems ideal right now.

First off, Brown is going to be dealing with two things he has not been familiar with. One will be carrying the load more than usual. Even in college he had Carnell Williams to split up his carries. As a young explosive back in the NFL now, Miami will be looking to increase his workload significantly. They may reduce it if he can not handle it, as Travis Minor has been effective as a secondary back.

Secondly, Daunte Culpepper is going to be his quarterback, and he’ll likely be rusty for the first month or longer. Meaning teams will gear to shut Brown down from week one on.

Last season, Brown had some crucial fumbles in critical points that were not talked about a lot. Fumbling four times in the NFL season does not seem bad, but when you only carried the football 200 times it is more alarming. Add more carries in 2006 and he could be one of the leading fumblers in the league. Let’s not even think worst case scenario, which would be seeing Joey Harrington inserted as quarterback if Culpepper struggles.

Neither Culpepper or Harrington has been a great producer for their running backs. In Minnesota, Culpepper never had a back that could be counted for in fantasy football, and in Detroit the same went for Harrington. Those cases had all to do with their teams offensive philosophy and the lack of a strong back.

So when you have that early to mid first round pick do not over reach for Brown. He is going to be a solid back but there are too many question marks to take him that high. We all know that having running backs in fantasy football is vital, but you may want to elect to trade that pick down to crop up a tandem of backs.

Fantasy football drafters are loving the fact that Brown has it all too himself. With a weak crop of running backs to draft this season, Brown’s value has skyrocketed. Will he prove to be worthy of his hype or just an okay fantasy back? We’ll see.