Weekly Analysis

Due Credit To Trainers

Wednesday, 24 June, 2009

By Zack Cimini

Time and time again we are seeing quicker recovery in athletics from injuries. It’s even a drastic difference from 3-5 years ago. You hear athletes seeking out the best of the best, and doling out the extra cash to seek the advice and training of experts. In fact, most super star athletes trainers could be virtual daily assistants. They have specific itineraries on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis to help their athletes achieve their goals. Attaining goals is what athletes do day in and day out. What the athlete can’t predict is the injury that will adjust their lifestyle and training regimen. This is where the gap ten to fifteen years ago has shortened dramatically for an athlete.

Athletes are getting hurt more frequently due to several factors. Mostly due to the intense training and rigorous day in and day out grind of a professional sport. This combined intensity just doesn’t gel for a body to handle and endure for a whole season. If an athlete is lucky to avoid an injury, it’s just misleading and not reported. Just scour the locker rooms to see the nagging injuries athletes have to battle throughout the year. Forget the injury report, just about every athlete has some sort of physical ailment that hampers them for the rest of the season.

Obviously athletes are getting more cautious and aware of what they need to do to protect their bodies. Even professional teams have beefed up their training staffs and been more reasonable with lessening the workload in between games and practices. This has to be done or you see the difference come December and January constantly. The age of an athlete’s career has even dwindled down. Older veterans just can’t get away with the tricks of the game they’ve learned throughout the years to vent off age. The Zach Thomas’s and Ray Lewis’s of the world are just a rarity these days. More of what we are seeing are the Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, etc. types. Guys that have dominant years and fade quickly.

It is truly a young man’s game, and is getting younger. The Colts have a running back in Joseph Addai that will be entering just his fourth season, but the Colts obviously feel he can’t handle a full workload. They drafted Donald Brown in the first round and now the committee system is in place. Addai has had issues with his health but now slides at least five to seven spots after being an elite fantasy running back.

Just look at how many veterans are still unsigned. These are athletes like Marvin Harrison that have played at a high level just a year ago. Part of it is the demand for money, but the majority of it has to due with the talent pool. There are enough skilled athletes these days that can fill the role of just about anybody. With the added one on one training the youngster can grow at a higher rate than a declining veteran.

Some of the stories of athletes playing through injuries are just amazing. Remember, a few years ago when Plaxico Burress would miss every practice but play at an incredible level on Sundays. How about the players that tweak an ankle or hamstring that are back in within a quarter without missing a beat? This is harder to notice in football but is becoming stupefying in basketball how quickly a player is back on the floor. Minutes earlier they were cringing on the floor as if they tore an ACL or broke an ankle.

Fantasy owners just like the athletes need to take some time and give credit to those excellent individual and team trainers. The after thought of all your championship aspirations and a true behind the scenes key for athletics. More frequently athletes are able to wait until the off-season before undergoing surgery, which keeps your roster from complete disaster with injuries. Even with surgeries athletes are also defying the odds in that department. They’re defeating time tables for a return weeks and sometimes months ahead of schedule. Remember Terrell Owens returning to play in the Super Bowl, Tom Brady’s remarkable comeback is months ahead of schedule, and even Jameer Nelson of the Orlando Magic.

Sure, your team is usually littered with players that have the letters of D, Q, or P, but most of the time they do play. It’s just the effectiveness ability that comes into question. That’s why you draft numerous players for depth. Just don’t forget about the people that makes your players get ready every week.

Can He Do It?

Wednesday, 9 July, 2008

By Zack Cimini

The emergence of tight ends taking on a pivotal role in fantasy football leagues has spiked considerably over the last two to three seasons. Ever since Antonio Gates showcased to the league his special skill set more and more teams have began to utilize their tight ends in a dynamic way. All in all the days of just plugging in a different tight end each week and hoping for some points are done. Picking the right one could be the big factor in a W or L for your team.

There is one athletic tight end that was drafted high a few seasons ago to be the beast of all tight ends. He has the speed and size to just drive defensive coordinators nuts. Since arriving in the NFL in 2006, Vernon Davis has yet to dent a presence as a mediocre tight end. Part of the reason is because of the 49ers and Alex Smith’s offensive woes, but also because he is still finding his way. As they say, a third year in the league can mean all the difference to an athlete.

Can Davis shake off his first two years of rust and be the tight end the 49ers and NFL scouts thought he would be off the bat?

There is good reason to think that the 49ers will finally draw up more plays designed for Vernon Davis. First off the 49ers brought in Mike Martz to boost the anemic offense that has been plaguing the 49ers for several seasons now. Martz wants Davis to get the ball and will make sure of it. Another bonus is that the 49ers switched out their starting wide receivers again. Having Bryant Johnson, Isaac Bruce and Ashley Lelie should help out either Alex Smith or Shaun Hill.

Right now Davis would have to rank as a borderline middle tier tight end. Reason being he has yet to get the touches and amount of passes thrown to him as the top six to eight tight ends do. In order for Davis to get where Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley, and the Dallas Clark’s of the world are, he needs to be the focal point of the 49ers passing attack.

This should be the year that Davis gets the looks and balls thrown to him. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Davis leap over a few of the tight ends in preseason rankings and land in the top five. Catching anywhere from seventy five to eighty five passes should be within sights. Last year was a rough year to judge for Davis as even Frank Gore couldn’t get it going. The whole team never got it into gear and faltered all season long.

Davis just needs to stay healthy and get into a rhythm with both Shaun Hill and Alex Smith early on. Chemistry can drive the fuel to get the extra looks especially from a young quarterback. For where Davis is likely to land in drafts he should be worth it. Expect numbers around the area of Chris Cooley with a little more receiving yards.

Martz has always been able to maximize talent, as long as Davis is willing to work with him. Does Davis have the work ethic and determination to take a leadership role on a team that obviously needs some dire fuel to drive their offense? NJG thinks so, and the 49ers should get back to being a team on the rise like they did a few seasons ago.

Team Rankings 9/19

Wednesday, 19 September, 2007

Our bi-weekly column of team rankings is here. With brief analysis of each and every team, find out where your team is ranked at.

1. New England
They rebuilt to prevent what happened against the Colts from happening again. The clash will happen, it just remains to be seen which teams suffers the worst injuries. It can’t hurt to be two games ahead of everyone in your division already.

2. Indianapolis
Tennessee always plays them tough. A lot of wins in the regular season won’t mean a thing if they can’t win in the playoffs.

3. San Diego
Have faced their toughest part of their schedule and came out of it .500.

4. Chicago
Hard to see Rex Grossman leading them to the Super Bowl again.

5. Dallas Cowboys
Playing very well but may be the Bengals of the NFC. Not having a defense won’t get you too far.

6. Denver Broncos
Wins are wins.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Playing great on both sides of the football.

8. Baltimore Ravens
McNair is already down but the Ravens will be just fine.

9. New Orleans
Can the NFC preseason favorites actually be this poor?

10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week ones defensive performance hopefully was a one time thing. Now the Jaguars just need to get the running game back in motion.

11. Seattle Seahawks
They suffered a hard loss, thanks to an exchange by their Pro Bowl quarterback and running back.

12. Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns haven’t had that much offense if you put a month of 2006 together. You just can’t follow a big win by a loss like this, and expect to be a playoff team.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jeff Garcia is doing what he does best. Lead teams.

14. Green Bay
The Packers must figure out their main option at running back.

15. San Francisco
Eking out two wins in improbable fashion may happen twice all year with a team. San Francisco has pulled it off two weeks in a row.

16. Houston Texans
They’ll be able to get to .500 and hover around this spot all year.

17. Detroit Lions
They’re off to a fast start but had the best schedule to start a season off with than any other team 2-0.

18. Tennessee Titans
Came close to pulling off another come back tight win. Tennessee just can’t separate themselves enough from the middle of the field in a tough AFC.

19. Minnesota Vikings
If it weren’t for their inexperienced quarterback the Vikings would be 2-0. They’ve got a great defense and the offensive line is doing a fine job as well. They may need to insert Bollinger or Kelly Holcomb.

20. New York Jets
Eric Mangini will have this team in line no matter what the Jets record is. That means they’re a dangerous team each week, and could go on a winning streak at any point.
21. Carolina Panthers
A brutal loss week two against the Texans may have just showed the true colors of the Panthers.

22. Washington Redskins
They faced a Dolphins team that will be towards the bottom of the league, and then a Philly team that just was off as a whole. They’re a growing team that may get away with being in the NFC. The Eagles and Giants though should creep right back on them.

23. Arizona Cardinals
New head coach Ken Whisenhunt definitely has changed the tune of the Cardinals. They had their luck of week one reversed to even their record to 2-0. Matt Leinart’s youth looks to be a year away from getting the Cardinals to a playoff caliber level.

24. Philadelphia Eagles
Get McNabb a receiver and things could look brighter. Their defense is still playing strong, and McNabb will work some tricks even at 80 percent.

25. St. Louis Rams
Scoring touchdowns is a problem, errrr.

26. Buffalo Bills
Had a tough start to their season against the Broncos and Steelers. Will those two losses roller coast a slide or help them gain some wins?

27. Oakland Raiders
If Jamarcus Russell is all he is hyped up to be, the Raiders may be a decent team a few years from now. Lamont Jordan is quietly becoming the leader for bounce back player of the year.

28. New York Giants
This team just wants a new head coach.

29. Miami Dolphins
This veteran defense can’t take it having to run onto the football field with quick three and outs and turnovers from the offense. If a running game doesn’t get established soon the defense will be burnt out by November.

30. Kansas City
Herman Edwards better be enjoying his contract money, because we’re positive he’d rather be coaching his old Jets team.

31. Cleveland
All teams get a key win in a year, Cleveland just got theirs early.

32. Atlanta
Leftwich has been on waivers for three weeks now. What does the signing of him now tell the rest of the NFL? How bad is it going to be to have to bench Joey Harrington, and tell him to come back out when Leftwich gets hurt?

Chiefs, Dolphins Fantasy Analysis

Thursday, 16 August, 2007

Series will be played now in preseason games by the first team. Miami and Kansas City unveiled and on Thursday night let their starters play a few series. For both teams it ended up being a nightmare ugly drawn out game. There were a few positives to take out of the game. One bold outlook is that both teams still have two preseason games left.

For Miami, Trent Green came out gunning and went 0 for 3. It looked like Miami may have been forcing the issue on the first series to get Green going. On the next drive though, Miami and Green got things working. Green mixed in an array of throws to and went four for four on the drive. Even though Miami could not punch in a score inside the goal line, it was the end of Green’s night. It looks as if Miami is going to be very creative this year on offense and Green seems comfortable enough already. The only reason he may have been shaky on the first series was due to the fact on facing his old team in Kansas City.

What was more impressive then anything for Miami was their offensive and defensive line, which dominated both sides of the football. That is not new to the Dolphins defense but the offensive line has been below average for quite some time now. It looks as if they’re starting to mesh as a unit and created plenty of holes for Ronnie Brown. Brown’s best run of the night came on Green’s effective drive. He was patient to get to the hole, shed a few tacklers and made a quick cutback and switched to a second gear. Ty Law dragged him down or the 22 yard gain would have been a sure score for the Dolphins.

Besides the first team offense it looked as if Miami’s second and third team was not willing to operate. Then rookie, John Beck came in and maneuvered the Dolphins with ease to get a touchdown and a go ahead two point conversion. Expect Beck to play with the second team next week and play for a longer period of time. Miami needs to know how much talent Beck has, but he definitely possesses the smarts and intangibles to be the future starting quarterback in Miami.

For Kansas City, things appear to be happening to slow with only two weeks of preseason action left. This game will likely speed the process up of agreeing to a new deal with Larry Johnson. Their offense has been absolutely atrocious the first two preseason games. At quarterback Damon Huard either could not get in the groove or just had a poor night. The play calling was not in his favor but he just didn’t manage the team as a first string quarterback should. Brody Croyle on the other hand seemed to feed off of Huard’s inabilities. The first series of Croyle’s action is when the Chiefs offense revved up and marched down the field for a quick touchdown. That drive would be the end of Croyle’s momentum as he cooled down immediately and threw a poor interception in the end zone.

The main fantasy analysis to take from this game is that Miami is going to shoot to get this offense rolling. They only managed to score 16 points per game last season and that should boost up into the low 20’s. If that can happen that will translate into more touchdowns for Mr. Ronnie Brown. No one really knows where to rank Brown but he is falling into the second round in most drafts. With the almost guaranteed RB, RB, choice selections for rounds one and two, Brown makes a top notch second back.

A late flier or safe choice for quarterback in Trent Green might not be a bad consideration either.

Tight End Position Deeper Than Ever

Monday, 13 August, 2007

Only ten years ago the tight end position was rather non existent. There were stars at the position and the rest were situational pass catching targets but mainly blocking specialists. Ben Coates, Frank Wycheck, and Shannon Sharpe were the rare serious threat tight ends to have on your fantasy football roster. Drafting a tight end was like picking a kicker for fantasy owners. Now rankings are not clear cut and can actually shift on a week to week basis. Call it a vast improvement from five to seven years ago, as tight ends are catching more balls then ever and sometimes even considered the number one pass catching target on teams. For guys like Tony Gonzalez, Kellen Winslow, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, and Antonio Gates that is a definite fact.

Since Antonio Gates transcended the position with his dominance in 2005, more teams have caught on to utilize the tight end more. Instead of the tight end position having six or seven strong candidates for fantasy owners, there is enough talent to consider drafting a backup tight end for sleeper consideration. That’s how advanced and deep the position has become. All the worries of having to jump on a tight end do not have to happen anymore. Notjustagame.com analyzes some tight ends that you can get late in drafts after owners have snatched up the first tier. Times change quickly when teams see quick advances. There are a viable twenty tight ends to stick on your draft cheat sheets.

An average legitimate figure to predict from the first tier of tight ends is numbers of 900 yards receiving and six touchdowns. We have considered nine tight ends in our first tier, with a specialization category asterisk on the names of Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. As they will likely have a slighter edge in both yards and touchdowns from the other first tier tight ends. Who follows Gonzalez and Gates are (by no specific ranked order) are Chris Cooley, Jeremy Shockey, Jason Witten, Alge Crumpler Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, and Todd Heap. The trend amongst them is that they all are growing substantially in their teams offensive plans and their great athletes. Numbers from them will be steady or better from their prior seasons. Even with Alge Crumpler who is going to be without Vick but does not change the fact that he is a big target and knows how to get open. He’s done it without any wideouts supporting him and now he has Joe Horn to spread it out for him.

Behind the mentioned nine tight ends above are tight ends that can sneak into the bottom ten in ranking. Tight ends making our second tier are Benjamin Watson, LJ Smith, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Eric Johnson, Daniel Graham, and Randy McMichael. For the most part these guys all have strong offenses that love to pile up the yardage and scoring numbers. Getting away with snatching one of these guys as a starting tight end might not be as bad as owners may think. Most owners do not draft back up tight ends and certainly will not do it rounds after getting a tier one tight end.

That means you can holdout extra rounds to build on other areas without worrying about who your tight end is going to be. In other areas when quarterbacks and receivers start getting snared is when you see a dominoes affect begin from owners. With the likelihood of more tight ends having decent years like last season smiling and adding that extra back or getting a top defense can be done while tight ends get snatched.

For the first time there is even a third tier of tight ends. Not any of these tight ends should be drafted but maybe the second tier tight end you draft as your starter does not work out. Then scrambling on the waiver wire must be done and these third tier guys will be there. Marcus Pollard in Seattle has a chance to be a strong sleeper. Jerramy Stevens may have never filled the tight end role but Pollard has the veteran skills to do so. He has reliable hands that the Seahawks are not use to (Led the league in drops 06), and should have his fair share of decent games.

Over in Chicago, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark as a duo is a twist that keeps both of these athletes in the third tier. We’ll have to see how the Bears figure both in the offense to bump either or in tier rankings. Last but not least David Martin in Miami creeps on the radar. He is a newcomer but the quarterback of the Dolphins is not at throwing to tight ends. Trent Green has the automatic wandering eyes to the middle of the field from throwing to Tony Gonzalez for the last five years. Miami always seemed tight at involving Randy McMichael more but you can bet Green’s instinctual heavy reliance on a tight end will make Martin involved.

Terrible Two's, Not Necessarily

Thursday, 9 August, 2007

Has there ever been a year where there have been so many teams with question marks at the second wide receiver spot? A lot of it has to due with the amount of new youth of talent at the receiver position. This fact though scares fantasy owners as they want guys who they know are going to for sure be beneficial to them. This was the same reasoning for Jerricho Cotchery and Mike Furrey going undrafted in 95 percent of leagues last season. As these receivers with golden opportunities slip in drafts, one has to wonder which receivers are going to have the best chance to prove their mark for fantasy teams. By analyzing and breaking down the teams with inexperienced receivers at the number two spot, we decided to rank accordingly where we think these receivers should be.

1. Devery Henderson, New Orleans
Henderson still has to be out rookie Robert Meachem. Early on though expect Henderson to start and continue to make big contributions for the Saints. Last year Henderson and Colston came onto the scene for fantasy owners and this year will not be a shocker.

2. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh
Holmes is everything the Steelers wanted from Antwan Randle El but couldn’t get from him as a receiver. Holmes brings his attributes not only to the return game but showed in his rookie year that he is something special at wide receiver. He had over 800 yards receiving with only 49 catches. Add a total of at least 65-70 catches from him this year. With a healthy Hines Ward opposite him Holmes is going to have some monster games.

3. Greg Jennings, Green Bay
Green Bay’s main target is still Donald Driver who is probably the oldest consistent durable receiver in the league. Jennings showed enough flashes last year to be confident with him as your third wide receiver. The Packers like to throw the football a lot and Favre loves to spread the ball around. Jennings is poised to breakout in his second season and continue to learn from great veterans in Brett Favre and Donald Driver.

4. DJ Hackett, Seattle Seahawks
Almost a perfect fit to replace Darrell Jackson. He is the exact type of receiver that works well in the Seahawks offense. The Seahawks offense is usually high octane and fast paced. A lot of yardage is going to come from it, and DJ Hackett will be a beneficiary.

5. Philadelphia, Kevin Curtis
He was able to have fantasy relevance for years as the St. Louis Rams third wide receiver. Now his role is bumped up to starting wideout with the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ll find out quickly if Curtis was a product of the Rams system or a legit receiver. The Eagles have certainly had their problems finding Donovan McNabb receivers. One is in place in Reggie Brown but more are needed.

6. Ashley Lelie, San Francisco
A year ago Lelie thought he was about to get a fat check by running his mouth to the Denver organization. Well he was cut and signed with Atlanta where he did little to show his value. He has to be hungry now and mature enough to handle his business the right way. San Francisco is quickly transforming from a young team to a dangerous young team. Lelie will just need to get back to his original mind state when he entered the league. If he does he’ll have a long term deal that he wanted just a year ago in Denver.

7. Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina Panthers
Assuming he holds off Drew Carter for the second receiver spot all you have to do is look at Keyshawn Johnson’s Panthers numbers. Jarrett has the same body size and will be used similarly. As long as Steve Smith takes pressure off of him then Jarrett can get some spot duty bye week starts for fantasy teams.

8. Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders
Moss is gone and suddenly Jerry Porter is back in the fold for the Raiders. Well Art Shell is gone but Porter went practically a full year without stepping onto the field. Curry on the other hand has been a steady improvement year in and year out for the Raiders. If it weren’t for injuries he may already have been a known fantasy gem. The Raiders will be losing a lot. Unlike when Randy Moss’s numbers would go down from losing, Curry’s and the Raiders receivers should go up. More balls being thrown in blowouts should give Curry plenty of bonus receptions and a few extra touchdowns.

9. Craig Davis, San Diego
Eric Parker’s out for ten weeks with an injury and Davis appears to be the front runner to take his spot. Still, the overwhelmingly slanted San Diego offense in favor of Antonio Gates and LT may mean little for the Chargers second wide receiver. Keep your eyes on the development of newly number one wideout Vincent Jackson. If he handles it well then options will be limited for Davis. San Diego’s receivers have yet to be a factor in fantasy football for several years.

10. Brandon Lloyd, Washington Redskins
How he had such a poor first year with the Redskins was stunning. Maybe he should of stayed a 49er as he was emerging as a solid receiver their. Perhaps the transition to the Redskins new offensive system and coaches shunned Lloyd away a bit. Expect a turnaround of some sort as his numbers can not be any worse than last years.

Others

Peerless Price, Buffalo Bills
Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Marty Booker, Miami Dolphins
Bobby Wade, Minnesota Vikings
Kevin Walter, Houston Texans
Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones, Tennessee Titans