Weekly Analysis

MICHAEL CRABTREE HERE TO SAVE YOUR FANTASTY FOOTBALL TEAM

Wednesday, 7 October, 2009

By: Raymond Ayala

He held his ground, until he could hold that ground no longer. Michael Crabtree and his agent Eugene Parker finally caved in to the 49ers demands and signed a fair slot value deal. With this signing the 49ers(3-1) add another weapon to an already stacked arsenal. The 49ers have already seen great offensive production from Vernon Davis, as well as Frank Gore. Though Gore has been hurt, he is expected to return after the 49ers upcoming bye week. Coincidentally that will also make the Crabtree-Era as he is expected to make his debut in that same game. Some may argue that Crabtree is a diva that has yet to prove anything in the NFL yet. Well I am about to tell you five good reasons why you made a good decision if you drafted Crabtree in your fantasy league.

1) Crabtree is the best Wide Receiver to ever come out of college football. Regardless of what you say about his attitude, his stats speak for themselves. In 2 full seasons he had 231 receptions, 3,127 yards and 41 touchdowns.
2) He’s got the perfect wide-receiver frame. Watching clips of him makes you think of Michael Irvin, watching him run his mouth he makes you think of Terrell Owens. Combine the two into one super receiver and you got yourself Michael Crabtree.
3) He plays for a team that is in playoff contention. The 49ers are showing the entire NFL that they are the real deal this year. With early wins against the division favorite Arizona Cardinals, Crabtree could be the key to a double-digit win season for the 49ers. Which means more fantasy points for his contributions.
4) He plays in an offense where the current leading receiver is Vernon Davis, a Tight End. This just shows that Vernon is a good weapon for the 49ers, but Crabtree will be an even better compliment. Crabtree and Davis are probably two of the most athletic people in the NFL, with Patrick Willis a freak in his own right.
5) They paid him big money, so he has to show big play ability. Hey he may fail in the end, but he has one heck of a contract to live up to and my gut tells me he lives up to it. The ball is literally in Crabtree’s court. Even if this season does not pan out, the guy is still 22 years old. I think Hill gets a good repertoire going with him and he finishes the year with 600 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns. Not bad for a guy only playing in 12 games.

Airstrike

Tuesday, 6 October, 2009

by Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

It’s always been about the running backs dominating fantasy football but has the positioning shifted over to the quarterbacks? In this first stretch of four games we’ve seen only two teams really dominate running the football. Those teams running the football well and consistently thus far have been the Denver Broncos and the Miami Dolphins. Some others are doing so-so but not nearly at the level we would all like.

The main statistic that hasn’t been brought up enough is that this past four weeks was record breaking for league passing measures. Over a four week stretch there has never been more yards thrown in NFL history.
Think of all the quarterbacks that have had 300 yard days this past month. You had quarterbacks such as Kevin Kolb having 300 yard days all the way up to the norms in Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner. Heck even Jason Campbell had a 300 yard passing day. This sort of peak in the passing game will obviously curtail somewhat, but it also makes even more of a need to make sure you have a solid backup quarterback.

The blossoming of the young quarterbacks has also helped. Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Ben Roethlisberger and a handful of others are exceeding any type of fantasy numbers we would have thought. There are options out there currently on the waiver wire that will help you have favorable matchups that you’re going to need to make up for all the extra points quarterbacks are getting now.

Part of the main reason quarterbacks are padding their stats is the numerous times quarterbacks are throwing the immediate hot route quick screen to receivers. Quarterbacks are getting so good at it that they’re doing it five to seven times a game. Peyton Manning has made this a staple to his arsenal as his team has struggled to get a running game going. Too make up for that consistent chunks of yards he is thriving on hitting Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, or Pierre Garcon with the quick hot route throw. It’s no coincidence that Manning for the first time in his career has thrown for 300 yards for four straight games.

Fantasy owners that went all out on running backs don’t fear. There are still plenty of backs that have been getting the carries but just not having the results. Step it up Matt Forte and Michael Turner. The tables will rebalance themselves somewhat but maybe never to the level we have all been use to. There is just too much distribution dividing up backfields. Teams not only are using just a two back system, most are going with three.

Top Tier NFL Quarterbacks from small College Worlds

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009

By: Raymond Ayala

Ever since Kurt Warner went from a grocery store clerk to a Super Bowl MVP in 2000, the NFL has been flooded with guys who have come from smaller colleges to become starting NFL quarterbacks. While guys like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, and Alex Smith have gone from big college programs to 1st round picks in the NFL draft, all of them have one thing in common. That thing in common is failure. NFL teams are now starting to look more at DI-AA programs, as well as smaller DI schools, in order to find their new starting quarterbacks. While some teams have gone for the 1st round quarterback, others have been patient and the patience has paid off. Here are a list of quarterbacks that have or could have a fantasy impact on your team this week.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) – College: Delaware – After not getting playing time at DI school Pittsburgh, Flacco decided to transfer to DI-AA Delaware, in order to gain more experience. While he faced lackluster opponents, he ended up becoming a leader on the field, which in turn gave the Ravens a reason to select him with their 1st round pick. While most of the guys on this list are not drafted in the 1st round, Flacco is a perfect example of teams knowing that they can find just as good of a talent at Delaware, as they could from USC, Ohio St., or any other big time college program. Flacco has rewarded his fantasy owners this year already, with 839 passing yards and 6 touchdowns in three games.

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) – College: Eastern Illinois – Tony Romo went undrafted out of college, and this was to no ones surprise since most people have not heard of Eastern Illinois. Well Romo has single-handedly put that school on the map, after making the most of an opportunity and step in for an injured Drew Brees. The rest is history, and this once undrafted quarterback is now the happy recipient of a multi-million dollar extension. While his INT’s may cause some concern, Romo typically improves as the season continues. Look for his touchdowns to gradually rise as the Cowboys face some easier competition down the road.

Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs) – College: USC – I know what you’re thinking. What the heck is a USC alumnus doing on this list of underdogs? Well Cassel may have had an even more tough path to the NFL, thanks to the fact that he did not start one game during his college career. Cassel backed up Bengals quarterback, Carson Palmer, and when Palmer left, Cassel back up Matt Leinart as well. Needless, to say even though Leinart was the better college quarterback, Cassel has been the better NFL quarterback thus far. When Patriots quarterback Tom Brady went down with a knee injury, Cassel filled in admirably and was rewarded just like Tony Romo, with a boatload of cash. Though Cassel has yet to get off on the right foot this season, just wait until Dwayne Bowe is healthy. Once Bowe is 100%, Cassel-Bowe should be tandem no team wants to reckon with.

Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) – College: Louisiana-Lafayette – While he went to a DI college, the sun belt conference isn’t exactly the SEC. This was the main reason Jake Delhomme was not drafted out of college. Delhomme fought hard and found his way onto the Carolina Panthers with solid outings that eventually gave the Panthers franchise their first Super Bowl appearance. Unfortunately for Delhomme it seems like his days are now numbered in the NFL, and another undrafted QB, Matt Moore might be the better start in fantasy football.

Josh Johnson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – College: University of San Diego – I had to make sure I wrote that correctly so no one makes the mistake. The starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is my alma mater’s own Josh Johnson. While playing for the Toreros, Johnson set numerous NCAA passing records, as well as rushing records. He was also named the MVP of the College All-Star game known as the Shrine Game. Even though he comes from a small school, the NFL is about to get rocked with a guy that has better foot speed than Michael Vick did in his hay day. A bold prediction yes, but just go to youtube and type in Josh Johnson football and just watch in amazement. Johnson gets the start this week against the Washington Redskins, so if you have Marc Bulger or Chad Pennington on your bench, make sure to pick up Josh Johnson as a replacement.

Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals) – College: Northern Iowa – He started the trend before it was cool to go undrafted and start in the NFL. Call him Mr. Adversity, because this guy went from undrafted, to the Arena Football League and then after the AFL season ended he was bagging groceries. The lowly St. Louis Rams gave him a chance, and he thrived in his rookie season, winning the Super Bowl MVP as well as the NFL MVP. Warner currently plays for the Cardinals, after leading them to a Super Bowl berth last season. His time seems to be numbered, though he is a good start against teams, which cannot defend the pass. Just ask the Jacksonville Jaguars about that.

Listen This Time

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009

by Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

There are few golden rules to attacking a fantasy football season but one of them is always, always, hand cuff your high draft pick running backs with their fill in. Yet, for some reason fantasy owners ignored that this year and decided to bank on better options for depth. That philosophy is fine and dandy to have other viable options at receiver, defense, tight end, wherever it may be. Now though we’re three weeks in and have already seen some star backs land on the sidelines for durations unknown and some that are out for weeks.

Now you’re stuck with horrible options to go with at running back when you could have had that safety net right there to plug in your starting lineup. It’s like playing blackjack and knowing the dealer is going to get it sooner or later, and when you know he/she has it you still don’t buy insurance. You better hope that you’re waiver wire position bailed you out to have a shot at Glen Coffee or LeSean McCoy this week. We’re going to take a look at a few other handcuff musts out there that fantasy owners can be proactive about.

Reason: Production

In Danger: Larry Johnson, In: Jamaal Charles
We’re trying to diagnose what’s wrong with Larry Johnson, and we think we’ve figured it out. He has Shaun Alexander/Eddie Georgeitus. He isn’t hitting the holes properly and seems like he has lost everything he had just three years ago. It truly is a young backs league and Jamaal Charles is that guy. It’s only a matter of time before Charles takes over this job. He nearly combined for 100 total yards this past week against Philadelphia with about half the touches of Johnson. Johnson has faced three solid front seven defenses and has had to deal with a quarterback not doing anything to help him out. Johnson’s production levels though have been backpedaling for years now, so that’s why we believe his slow start is not an aberration.

In Danger: Steve Slaton, In: Chris Brown
Was more of himself this past week against the Jaguars, but it seems as if Houston is going to keep a balanced time share going with Slaton and Brown. This past week Slaton had twelve carries and Brown 8, and the previous week was just as balanced. As a young back with last seasons great year in the back of his mind, you have to wonder if the pressure will or has got to him already. If so, fumbles could start to happen and that’s where the already close time share may be become dead even. Don’t forget Chris Brown is already their goal line back and was a feature back for the Tennessee Titans for many years.

In Danger: Tim Hightower, In: Beanie Wells
The Cardinals game plan against the Colts has been one of the hot topics of discussion this week. The Dolphins showed how to keep the ball out of the Manning’s hands and also exposed a horrid Colts run defense. So what did the Cardinals do? After a Tim Hightower fumble inside the Colts ten, they abandoned the running game the entire game. It resulted in Kurt Warner being on his back all game and the Colts locking down the Cardinals receivers by playing nickel defense over 50 plays in the game. With Whisenhunt calling the plays he has to be smarter than that. The Cardinals don’t know what they have in a running game because they never stick with it. Unless they want Kurt Warner out for the year which will happen if they don’t start running it more, than they’ll have to figure out which back they want to feature. Hightower never impressed us last year and has been more of a threat as a pass catching back than a runner this year. Wells on the other hand has had a high per carry average and is only owned 59 percent in Yahoo leagues. If the Cardinals are going to turn around their season it starts with Wells.

In Danger: Mike Tuner, In: Jerious Norwood
This situation is more of protection for Turner. When a back that had a season like Turner did a year ago, and now can’t average near 4 yards a carry in a game, something is wrong. Turner is feeling the ill affects of carrying the ball an enormous amount of times last season. If it weren’t for his two touchdowns were sure talks of what’s going on with Turner would have started already. We warned people about Turner being overvalued, and we don’t expect anything to change this season in terms of that. What we do expect to happen is for the Falcons to do a better job in protecting Turner. They have to divide his carries up better by getting more carries to Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood. Norwood should be ready to play after this weeks bye, and is currently only owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues. If Turner doesn’t get protected he will assuredly end up nicked up with some type of injury. Either way Norwood should be on your fantasy radar spectrum. We expect after the bye week for Norwood to average seven to ten carries a game.

Reason: Injury Insurance

Current Starter: Pierre Thomas, Backup: Mike Bell
Bell’s currently out with a knee sprain and thus fantasy owners have tossed him back to the waiver wire. This team is no longer granting main carries to Reggie Bush. He’ll get his five to seven a game but the experiment they once had with him being a feature back Is done and over with. The carries will go to Thomas and Bell. For some reason the injury bug hits the Saints running backs constantly (Deuce McAllister), and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Bell land feature carries again at some point this season. Bell started off the year as one of the top backs in the league for the first two games and would be a solid option again if the opportunity presented itself. Bush and Thomas are already filling roster spots so grab Bell well you can as he is only 39% owned In Yahoo leagues.

Putting the Fence in Defense

Thursday, 24 September, 2009

by Raymond Ayala

Everyone knows the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles have one thing in common. All three of these teams have consistently maintained a defense that his been considered the cream of the crop in the NFL. But just as some defenses seem to fade away, some new ones are starting to develop. Three teams have stood out to me on the defensive side of the ball during the first two games of the season. Those three teams are the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers.

Denver Broncos – Key Players: Champ Bailey (CB), Brian Dawkins (S), Elvis Dumbervil (LB)
The Broncos should not be expected to keep up this defensive onslaught they have shown in their first two games, but with defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, anything is possible. In the offseason the Broncos added Pro-Bowl safety Brian Dawkins to form a Pro-Bowl backfield tandem with Champ Bailey. While their first two opponents are not considered top-tier teams, the Broncos still have two games left against the Oakland Raiders, as well as another game against Kansas City at home. The Broncos are a defense you should start over any other on easy weeks, but should sit against any top tier rushing games.

New York Jets – Key Players: Bart Scott (LB), Kerry Rhodes (S), David Harris (LB)

The New York Jets surprised the world last weekend, as they defeated the New England Patriots for the first time in a long time. While the media showers rookie Mark Sanchez with praise, I am going a different direction and giving much of the credit to the defense. This defense held New England to no touchdowns for the first time since 2008. Former Ravens defensive coordinator and now Jets head coach, Rex Ryan, has instilled a new sense of stability that the Jets defense has not seen in awhile. Look for the Jets defense to continue its dominance this season, as they finish as a top 5 Defense in Fantasy Football.

San Francisco 49ers – Key Players: Patrick Willis (LB), Nate Clements (CB), Justin Smith (DE)

The San Francisco 49ers are quite possibly the most surprising 2-0 team going into week 3. Coach Mike Singletary told his players in the preseason, that he wants them to play Fhysical…With an F! The 49ers have done just that on defense, holding opposing defenses to an average of 13 points per game. No player in the 49ers locker room fits the word “Fhysical” like Patrick Willis who is starting to show signs of a young Ray Lewis. On top of that Nate Clements has shut down both T.J. Houzmanzadeh as well as Larry Fitzgerald in respective weeks. Expect the 49ers to continue to pound the very weak NFC West teams they will face, as they finish the season as a top 10 defenses in fantasy football.

Post Week Two Waiver Wire

Monday, 21 September, 2009

By Zack Cimini

The early beginning weeks of the season always see an abnormal amount of great waiver wire pickup opportunities. Week one wasn’t such a fantasy outburst of a week, but week two spiked up contributions considerably. Besides a few yawners of games the rest were high scoring with practically no defense. Heck, Chris Johnson scored three touchdowns untouched. He looked like he was auditioning his forty speed once again.
Hopefully you’re commissioner has setup the waiver wire correctly. In that fashion either bidding or current record, fantasy points, or current slate for positioning of waiver wire should be set. If not, and it’s a free for all, make sure to get on top of your commissioner for next season. It’s a wrongful way to do it, and basically someone can pick a player up during mid-game and get lucky.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez

His numbers weren’t great in week two but the Jets won this game based on their defense and time of possession. Sanchez though has shown enough poise, command, and character that he is going to blossom quickly as a winner and fantasy quarterback. If you have him in you’re keeper leagues you made a great choice. Right now he is in the middle of the pack of the league, but should creep up near the Romo and Cassel range.

Jake Delhomme
He didn’t get the win but a good part of the blame on this loss goes to the Panthers defense. They couldn’t stop the Falcons and it could have been a blowout if not for a few turnovers by the Falcons. This is for sure, the Carolina Panthers currently have no one worth starting behind Delhomme. On top of that they’ve reinvested in Delhomme in the off-season, so he is there guy. Delhomme is a Brett Favre type of four or five years ago. He is going to put up big numbers, but rest assured there is going to be weeks where he’ll kill you with his erratic plays.

Running Backs

Beanie Wells
If he isn’t owned in your league than something is wrong (Only 69% in Yahoo Leagues). Wells could of possibly buried himself after an injury prone preseason, and fumbling twice this past week. The Cardinals are being patient with him though, as when he is on the field the Cardinals running game has instantly been explosive. Wells is currently averaging five yards a carry and is the burden off of Warner’s shoulders the Cardinals need. Give it a few more weeks before the announcement is made of Wells as the feature back and Hightower the third and short yardage back.

Felix Jones
Jones is owned by 71% of owners in Yahoo and with Marion Barber’s status in the air should be a hot waiver wire commodity. Jones of course is the big play back as he had a 50 plus yard touchdown run against the Giants. We will have to see if he can carry the load or how long Barber will be out with his quad injury.

LeSean McCoy
It didn’t take very long for the first of what should be numerous times that Brian Westbrook has got dinged up. His sprained ankle on his surgically repaired knee might not keep him out this week, but it will slow his impact down. Westbrook already hasn’t been the same dynamic back out the gate, which could be from missing the preseason. McCoy likely will see his touches go up per game to try and keep Westbrook from missing any games. Remember last season Westbrook hardly practiced and was still able to show up on Sunday. With McCoy getting most of the first team looks in practice it should help him become more comfortable and prepared for Sunday.

Justin Forsett
With the running game being ineffective the Seahawks decided to bring in Forsett as a threat out of the backfield. It worked decently as Forsett had six catches for over fifty yards, which translated to almost 100 all purpose yards. Forsett could be a one week wonder but take a gamble on him anyways. The future of a Jones/James backfield is definitely not in the Seahawks future, so look for Forsett to be involved in same fashion.
Wide Receivers
It goes without saying that the hottest waiver wire pickups of the week come as a tandem force in New York. Both Steve Smith and Mario Manningham put up a complimentary performance that made fans forget Burress/Tommer. The Giants were also without two receivers that were the main reason fantasy owners stayed away from Giants receivers, in Hakeem Nicks and Domenick Hixon. Tom Coughlin will move forward with this and keep Eli happy.

Mike Sims-Walker
The Jaguars receiver is going to be in a starting role now with Troy Williamson likely out for the year. Jaguars receivers have never really been a considerable fantasy starter, but the Jags seem to be struggling to find their identity offensively with Fred Taylor gone. They played from behind against the Cardinals and Garrard threw a whopping 43 times. Sims-Walker was the biggest beneficial person and will get a chance to continue to shine.

Jason Avant
Kevin Curtis has dropped down dramatically and rookie Jeremy Maclin has been a non factor. The Eagles have always been a team to have disparity with their passing and running game, and this will enhance Avants chances even when Maclin begins to emerge.