Weekly Analysis

White(out)

Tuesday, 1 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

As the NFL and franchises keep facing the rise of dealing with troubling issues, teams are stepping up to the plate by going in other directions. Cutting lose from looming battles of investigations that destroy team chemistry, and allow a player to rejoin after serving a suspension. Talent level is too high to deal with such issues.  It has been a pattern too often plaguing offseason organizations and now teams are wising up.

Literally just after trading for Lendale White and supposed reunion with Coach Carroll it has ended abruptly. After another failed drug test White would now face suspension by the league. This may have been something an organization three or four years into a regime would sidestep. Not a team rebuilding with a new nucleus starting from coach to multiple position players. Tolerance of breaking the rules is not what Caroll will allow or showcase. What kind of example would that set for a team that has underachieved consecutive years?

The prior linking of White and Caroll at USC had to make the decision tough, but Carrol and the Seahawks made the right decision. White will have time to get the right people around him and rededicate himself. For the Seahawks they have chose to move forward. In an article only a few weeks ago we highlighted the Seahawks backfield as a primary battle for fantasy owners. With White out of the loop it gets even more interesting. Could the Seahawks possibly go after Brian Westbrook or bring in a free agent rookie to pose a threat of shaking up the backfield.

There are several red flags to the current Seahawks backfield situation. Julius Jones and Justin Forsett were part of the Seahawks bottoming out the NFL in productivity in the backfield. Upgrading by bringing in Lendale White and Leon Washington were glaring signs to both Jones and Forsett. All signs were that White would be their primary ball carrier. Can Forsett and Jones shake off the fact that the organization was not backing them only a few days ago?

It’s hard enough for players to compete at their highest of levels when trade talks are surrounding that player. As an NFL athlete you have to be prepared for any type of situation and hopefully these two guys are. Down the road their carousel of being misled will likely end with the typical closure of exiting papers. Before that happens though both can brighten their perceived value by making the most of their situations.

Jones looks to be the once again front runner. Leon Washington is a change of pace back that will bring excitement to Carroll’s system. When it comes to being an every down back though Washington has not shown enough capability to do that. Jones has not necessarily lit up the charts himself. Something will give as the Seahawks know they can not force a complete burden on Hasselback’s bad back and shoulders.

Looking from a fantasy value perspective we have too leave off both Forsett and Jones. Jones is on the downside of his career. He has not been getting a significant amount of carries. Running backs  just do not suddenly reemerge statistically. Forsett is a scat back type that could make a push but may not be the guy the Seahawks are looking for. That leaves Washington as the lone fantasy worthy back currently for Seattle. This is for early fantasy drafts that are happening in June. This will continue to be a hot topic based on what type of offense Carroll wants to tailor. He’ll be tinkering with all types of ideas and the debate could involve another back by the end of the summer. For now though Washington  is the main guy. He has been a blip of a fantasy performer that should only see a higher committed role than prior years as a Jet.

Share the Wealth

Tuesday, 25 May, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Spread offenses with potent quarterbacks are love affairs to fantasy owners. Often times an owner with such a quarterback will try to double down their points by landing a receiver on that offense. Numbers used too evenly spread throughout the course of the year. In most of these offenses though getting consistency on a weekly basis from the second or third receiver has scaled back a bit. Out in Indianapolis is one of the more intriguing snapshots to try and figure out who will get the balance of Peyton Manning’s precision throws.

We know that Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark should be natural locks to stay of pace statistically of there prior years. Should we be so sure of that though? Receivers often decline out of no where and this is going to be Wayne’s tenth season in the league. At some point deterioration begins to happen and he will not be able to shake opposing teams number one corners with ease. For the Colts to allow Wayne to use his veteran tactics to stave off diminishing skills he will need to be able to rely on the Colts other receivers.

Folks have a little taste of what Pierre Garcon can do. He emerged last season when Anthony Gonzalez was unable to come back from nagging injuries. Garcon proved to be a big play target and was the home run threat Manning depended on. Speed is his best asset and he is currently slated as the Colts third receiver. We’d like to think that if Garcon improves on other areas as a receiver that he could surpass Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a steady possession receiver type that seems more suited for third down pass plays. When he was their third receiver a few years ago behind Harrison and Wayne, he was able to find space in zones for Manning to drop the ball into. As an every down receiver though that type of player is already on the field in Dallas Clark.

A good sign for fantasy owners that own the Colts receivers is that they’ll likely lead the league in combined trio production. The reason being is that their running game has been very poor over the last few seasons. Joseph Addai’s yards per carry continue to be dismal and last year was at 3.8. It’s hard to believe that the Colts running game has been this poor with the amount of audibles Manning is able to call at the line, and how he keeps defenses on their heels with play action. Their running game was towards the bottom of the league, but should spike up a little as the Colts will look to give Donald Brown more touches in his second year.

The battle for second receiver will be an interesting one. Austin Collie did fine in the third receiver role last year with over 700 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. So those numbers will not be bad for either Garcon or Gonzalez, and should be upgradeable based on their talent. Fantasy owners want an every down threat though as you should.

We just can’t see the Colts keeping Garcon’s big play ability off the field. Gonzalez is coming off a year of injuries and is going to have to fend off Garcon who continued his great regular season with a monster playoffs. He caught eleven balls for over 150 yards and a touchdown in the AFC championship game against the Jets, and scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl as well. The situation is comparable to when a teams starting quarterback goes down and they find something better when that backup comes in and starts winning.

Of course the Colts could just use their spread offense more if the ground game stays stagnant, but they know their lack of a ground game hurt them in the Super Bowl. Garcon has better fantasy value currently than Gonzalez and it’ll likely remain that way. Look for Garcon who is in the third year of his four year deal, to build upon last year in hopes of working out a new deal before the final year of his contract.

 

Fantasy Factor: Seattle’s Running Backs

Friday, 14 May, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

Seattle like most teams was in desperation mode to make moves to improve their team. Rather than making silent quiet signings and build through draft picks, they decided to bust out an array of bold moves. First they went after arguably the highest profiled college coach out there, and one that has had semi success before in the NFL ranks. Pete Carroll brings the dynamic of transforming the way he was able to mold young players at USC to maybe doing the same with young NFL contract athletes trying to fulfill their first contract obligations.

A city that is still reeling from the loss of an NBA franchise, Seattle, hopes that a revival to the years of Shaun Alexander’s breakout years is back. The division that the Seahawks dominated in laughable fashion for years after the realignment suddenly shifted to Arizona and San Francisco. It all started with the debacle of letting Steve Hutchinson sign with the Minnesota Vikings, and than countering that deal by unloading the same type of money on bust receiver Nate Burelson. From their Shaun Alexander tanked quicker than the media and NBA fans have on LeBron James. Their veteran quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck just could not avoid injuries the past few years, and had little support on the offensive side of the football.

Pete Carroll is not one to sit back and he has instantly made some trades that he thinks can boost this team now. Divisional foes come in with just as many question marks as Seattle so these type of moves could send strong signals to the teams veterans and ignite them in the right direction. After all Arizona will be running with either Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart, and San Francisco is finally setting forth their confidence with Alex Smith.

The head scratching trade for Charlie Whitehurst was a hot topic for multiple days, but one that did not get as much hype was the trades for Leon Washington and Lendale White. Even though Julius Jones is still on the team we do not expect that to remain through training camp. Towards the end of last season Justin Forsett was the main back for Seattle. Jones has struggled to reign in solid years with little to no competition the past several years, especially when he was paired with Edgerrin James.

Carroll thinks he can end White’s up and down battle in his NFL career with weight, alcohol, and commitment to football shape(conditioning). White’s already responded well by showing up to mini camp and what some would say the best shape he has for NFL mini camps. Linking with Carroll has seemed to put a flashback energize in him. White has already been a carousel fantasy back throughout his career. What could we expect from him as a feature back, as he is expected to be in Seattle? With fantasy owners not sure of how Seattle will share carries and their offensive woes the past few seasons, White will be a strong fantasy sleeper.

Last year he was just put aside completely by the emergence of Chris Johnson. The two seasons before last year though he was putting up monster touchdown numbers as an overweight and questionable work ethic athlete. He is still only 25, and double digit touchdowns entering the fold for White is a realistic outlook.

Than you have the flash and dash factor of Leon Washington. A back that has been dangerous in every phase of the game once he has his hands on the football. Call it crazy, but doesn’t it look like Carroll’s trying to build a backfield similar to his days at USC…..Bush/White. Washington’s role has yet to be determined and could stay just about the same as it was with New York. The thing about Washington though is he is a capable enough back to supplant White if White lets up and loses focus as he tends to do throughout a season. If so, we could see Carroll easily losing his patience and shifting the majority of carries to Washington. Even though Washington has never been a prime feature back, his yards per carry have been among the best in the league since he came into the league.

Heading into your early fantasy June drafts, White is the lone obvious strong back to draft from Seattle. He should get double digit touchdowns and if he is a feature back getting 15-20 carries than a 1,000 yard season should not be far sighted. Washington’s role and fantasy impact will depend more on training camp and preseason work. Injuries or depth chart movements could turn Washington from a late round June fantasy pick, to a serious sleeper in August/September.

 

Will Kolb Hurt Jackson’s Numbers?

Thursday, 8 April, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

After all the gossip talk and predictions of what people think is going to happen with Donovan in Washington and Kolb in Philly,  training camp will begin and performance will be the true measure. The fantasy world is already anticipating a spike to Kolb’s game and expect him to be a strong fantasy starter.

Why shouldn’t they? He was a big factor in his two starts last year when he threw for 300 yards and had the offense ticking like it hadn’t missed a beat. Two games is hardly a scope of predictable measure. Quarterbacks have their streaks all the time, and more often than not a quarterback can step in and excel. Especially with a solid skill set as Kolb does have, and experience gained from learning behind McNabb. Often though once that quarterback gets truly tested defensive coordinators gain quickly on a quarterbacks tendencies. They’ll know exactly what type of pressure to throw at Kolb and schemes too throw off his rhythm.

Flashback to what the true reason why McNabb wasn’t traded a year before. A November 23rd matchup in which McNabb was yanked and Kolb came in and played like an ex XFL caliber quarterback. Andy Reid’s statement of just giving Kolb some experience and his other stammering explanations were bogus. If Kolb would have performed well then and there he would of taken over the reigns.

The potent combo and fantasy fanatics that are expecting DeSean Jackson to thrive as he did last year may be in for a surprise. Sure Kolb’s two starts last year were great games for Jackson. Both games he exploded for big touchdowns and over 100 yards receiving. For anyone that remembers those games, Jackson’s big play touchdowns were not due to Kolb’s arm. The plays involved Jackson making a big play after the catch and using his speed to run away from the pack. Kolb doesn’t necessarily have a strong arm; not nearly the strength of Donovan McNabb’s.

That’s the factor that could turn DeSean Jackson from a week to week consistent big time fantasy factor back to unpredictable. If Kolb can’t show the strength to air it out, teams will compress their safeties and bump more off the snap on Jackson. Jackson has shown the ability to make catches wherever on the field but we all know he is a guy that is a burner. He had 10 plays for over 40 yards, an incredible statistic, especially considering he only caught 61 balls. That’s a bad sign for owners banking on Jackson trending around the numbers of last year.

We expect Jackson’s big play ability to be diminished with Kolb under center. Meaning Jackson likely will have a tough time catching six to eight touchdowns. Yardage should still be there as we know Andy Reid is going to call enough pass plays to numerically make up for Kolb’s three years as backup. Seriously though, do not make the mistake of reaching too high on grabbing Jackson. A legit number one fantasy receiver should be somebody that without question can guarantee you ten plus touchdowns. We don’t foresee that happening in 2010. Breaking down the numbers of last year and looking beyond the big plays of Jackson, he had seven games with three catches or less.

Unless Kolb is an All-Pro type like Aaron Rodgers waiting to shine, it’s going to be a long painful growing experience for Kolb, Jackson, and Andy Reid.

Transition Time

Wednesday, 7 April, 2010

By Zack Cimini

Notjustagame23@gmail.com

An elite quarterback as himself in Donovan McNabb should have had his pull of position in any environment of trade talks. We were not looking at a quarterback beyond being a capable consistent threat back in the pocket. He is not 37 or 38 years old. He is only 33 and was worthy of another two to three seasons with the Eagles. Departing from their teams of the 2000’s began last season when the Eagles decided to part ways with Brian Dawkins. This off-season that continued with Brian Westbrook giving his exiting papers.

With the rumor mill of Donovan McNabb every off-season being traded it just seemed an inevitable story but nothing more to it every year. If it were ever to happen you would of expected it last year, especially when McNabb was benched against the Baltimore Ravens. For the umpteenth time McNabb ignored the doubters and naysayers and got the Eagles oh so close to the Super Bowl. Up top in the Eagles front office the pressure kept being added onto McNabb’s shoulders. 2009 although a solid statistical year for McNabb ended unsatisfactorily.

As they say, business is business, and McNabb might have his best shot yet to make a lasting impact on the NFL in the latter stages of his career. Heading to Washington would seem like a laughable situation for anyone, but Washington will back him with talent. That’s one thing Daniel Snyder has never shyed away from doing. He will group together with Mike Shanahan and evaluate where their weaknesses are. For years in Philadelphia, McNabb really never had that great receiver or solid offensive line. DeSean Jackson will be a formidable threat but his rapid development was based as a second round pick. A gem of a steal that fell to the Eagles laps. There truly was no urgency in ever getting McNabb a true talented receiver. Come on…..Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, Freddie Mitchell. The best he ever could get was Terrell Owens for a year of his antic adventures.

We expect McNabb to have a seamless transition and thrive as a Redskin. His personable character will shine there, and you’ll see him flashing that patented smile as he gains his redemption. Injury prone or not, McNabb has found a way each year to get his team to the playoffs and make a push. It’ll be interesting to see what key components the Redskins add in this years draft. Money hunger is not an issue in Washington. The players on that team have been paid nicely. Getting their attention and drive to be committed as the true definition of team is the key. McNabb commands that with his presence and will surely revitalize the talent that went dormant under Jim Zorn.

In Philadelphia the brunt of the blame always fell on McNabb’s shoulders. Often times though the obvious criticism should of went directly at Andy Reid and his horrid play call selections. The team would literally force a ratio of passes than mixing it up with the running game. Sometimes it was downright stupefying. The chemistry was so unbalanced at times that the Eagles would go consistently in lulls that would allow teams to get back in games. Shanahan will not put McNabb in that type of situation.

Right now McNabb is probably bitter as can be. This extra season being in Washington instead of Philly will pay off in the long run. Draft McNabb in the same spots you normally would in your fantasy football drafts. He is going to remain a force and have better all around talent to work with. The highest of keys is an organization that is committed to him for the next several years.

Revamp in Cleveland Starts At QB

Wednesday, 23 December, 2009

By Zack Cimini
Notjustagame23@gmail.com

Cleveland is looking once again at huge changes of trying to dig themselves out from the graveyard of the league. They seem to be headed in the right direction be retooling from the key place in the front office. Making changes up there has been a consistent off-season move though from the Cleveland Browns that has translated into zero improvement as a team. Someone of Mike Holmgren’s caliber is not going to be taking his time to see what he has.

By now the entire league knows the Browns have little to no talent on the offensive side of the football. Just look at the carousel of the backfield as a prime example. The Browns have shuffled through numerous running backs in Jamal Lewis, Chris Jennings, and Jerome Harrison. At times part of the reason for this issue was due to injuries in the backfield. It seemed that Jennings had earned the nod for more carries and a larger share when he had a solid outing that led to the Browns upset win over the Steelers. Magician Mangini though had his own new plans and fooled all fantasy owners by giving the work load to seldom used Jerome Harrison. With only 1.9 percent of fantasy owners starting Harrison that has to be the worst official huge outburst fantasy output not utilized in leagues.

The worse area that the Browns have had horrible management of decisions is at quarterback. The Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn show has been a long drawn out three year horrific episode. During Quinn’s rookie year was the only real reasoning for either or to make a case for themselves. Quinn was a rookie and like most they’re expected to learn from the sideline. Anderson handled the pressure of having a highly praised rookie breathing down his neck like a poised veteran. He had a torrid 2007 season that made him the top out of everyone’s preseason radar steal of the year from the quarterback position. After a year like that you could only figure that Anderson was going to hold a starting role similar to the way Drew Brees did fighting off Philip Rivers, and Brett Favre holding back Aaron Rodgers.

Soon though we all saw that Anderson just had a career year and could not ever break out of his funk. Partly the blame went to the fact that Braylon Edwards developed bad habits with dropped balls, lack of effort, and inability to handle being a number one receiver. You’d think Cleveland would have tried to build better talent at the position of receiver for Edwards and their quarterbacks. That never happened and the Browns finally parted ways with Edwards this year.

On the other side of the quarterback picture was Brady Quinn. He got into a few games in 2008 but was given the job this year based on Anderson ineffectiveness once again. We all know he will miss the last two games with his foot injury but lets break down the ten games he did play in this year. Quinn showed zero pocket precence and played more like a backup quarterback trying not too lose a game. He has to find his niche with the Browns system and trust his physical skills and mental preparation to take some risks downfield. We know that he can take what the defense gives him and make that dump off throw. Any quarterback can do that, but if the Browns are going to ascend even with a few extra wins in 2010 they’re going to need Quinn to elevate his game dramatically.

Don’t be surprised if Mike Vick enters the Browns sweepstakes in the off-season. Cleveland needs someone to put the pressure on Quinn to be more of a force. Both Anderson and Quinn can argue they had zero talent this year to accomplish anything. The main weapon for them happened to be Joshua Cribbs who has only 20 catches but was who they used to run gadget plays to break up the routine throws of Quinn. Holmgren will come in and get his quarterback some play makers. It’ll be up to Quinn to shake his overall career sixty six quarterback rating. If not, the Quinn project in Cleveland will be over and over quickly.

Maybe when Quinn slipped in the 2007 draft there was a main reason for it. Why EAS has used him as a spokesman we have no idea. It must be recession low budget spending.