Weekly Analysis

Carson Palmer Hitting the Delhomme Wall

Wednesday, 29 September, 2010

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Remember the days when Carson Palmer looked like he could be and played like an elite fantasy quarterback? Questioning Palmer now boils around several areas. He is on a talented team with a nucleus that’s been building forward. Additions have been made that should bolster this team and propel them for not just divisional contention but a strong playoff push. Yet, the majority of questions circling this Bengals team point at Palmer.

Palmer has declined in a plethora of areas. Maybe he has never fully recovered from apparent elbow issues from a few years ago. Early season rust? Possibly. Some of the throws Palmer has been making though are just down right third string quarterback level. He is firing into areas of the field he has no business. Against the Panthers this past weekend he was lucky he was only intercepted twice. Numerous throws were errant and dropped by the Panthers defense. For quite a while the Panthers remained in the game against the Benglas. Even though they were starting Jimmy Clausen who was having a typical rookie quarterback nightmare debut.

With a current quarterback rating of 71, the front office has to be taken note. We see them looking to either bring in a quarterback via free agency or through the draft to give Palmer some pressure.

The Bengals were able to side step Palmer’s struggles last season by basically flipping their offense from prior years. Instead of gunning the football they became one of the top teams in the league at rushing the football. Cedric Benson had games were he carried the football 37, 34, 36, and 29 times. A very high amount compared to most starting backs in the league. Palmer’s career average of yards per game also was a paltry 193 yards.

Fantasy owners were disappointed last year in Palmer’s productions and are realizing that is not going to change. Can he turn it around once he develops a better feel for rookie Jordan Shipley and veteran Terrell Owens? We highly doubt it. Whatever is going on with Palmer it seems that he has hit that ugly Jake Delhomme wall. He has the ability to make an array of throws but consistency will never be a path he can take. He’ll deliver a dandy of a pass to Chad Johnson and two plays later throw a pick directly to a middle linebacker. Defensive schemes don’t change up enough for Palmer to not recognize the disguises and what’s going on out there. He has to regain confidence and get this team clicking offensively. If not there season could get real ugly.

At this point, Palmer should be considered as a fantasy backup quarterback with little upside. Until he proves he can limit his interceptions he should never start unless it’s a prime matchup. His yardage numbers are not there and you can’t anticipate him having a game of multiple touchdown passes. It’s a sad day when Palmer is rated on the same tier level of a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Bruce Gradkowski. That’s reality, as Palmer has done a 360 in the wrong fashion of where people thought he would be at this point in his career.

Week Three Podcast

Friday, 24 September, 2010

Jabbar Harris and Zack Cimini discuss the Mike Vick/Kevin Kolb controversy at quarterback. Coaches on the hotseat. Start em/Sit’ em Fantasy players. Lock and upset underdog choices this weekend and much more.

Injury Risk: Quarterbacks High Pass Attempts

Thursday, 23 September, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Besides a couple of significant injuries fantasy teams have remained unscathed and healthy. Last year teams were scoring at record paces. That translated to huge fantasy points at quarterback. Going into 2010 fantasy drafts more owners started to realize the importance of securing a top notch fantasy quarterback. In years past the disparate difference between a tier one and tier two fantasy quarterback was not something that would demolish a fantasy team. Now the point difference can be substantial.

Defenses have had their ways early on this season. Part of that has to do with teams still getting into gear and not at optimal levels of consistency. That should begin to sway more in the direction of offenses getting a handle on things. What gets us worried is not the fact that defenses are doing a solid job on quarterbacks. It’s the rise in pass attempts that has us alarmed.

Quarterbacks are already getting drilled at a high clip. Extra hits are not needed to their daily Sunday routine. Yet there are some elite quarterbacks that are having to throw the football forty to fifty times a game. Fantasy owners are ecstatic about that now, but better have a backup plan in case of injury. We’ve profiled some quarterbacks that are going beyond the pass attempts we would like to see. Each extra drop back could be that one that puts a hole to your fantasy team.

Donovan McNabb-

McNabb may have one of the toughest situations of any quarterback. He has a nonexistent running game. Washington has no one behind Clinton Portis to try and provide a spark, and just cut Larry Johnson. At receiver, McNabb has athletes that primarily stretch the field. Joey Galloway and Santana Moss have been career deep ball threats. McNabb has to buy extra time in the pocket to wait for one of them to break open. Currently, McNabb has averaged thirty five pass attempts a game and it may rise. His age and history of injuries does not bode well. Most McNabb owners probably have a suitable fantasy backup. If not get your plan ready.

Brett Favre-

With Favre everyone has seen the rust. His theories of no training camp and preparation with high schoolers worked like a charm for years. Not in 2010. Favre has had that old man look after getting hit. He seems to be bracing himself for the ground, and is taking extra time to get himself up. It’s good to be cautious but the hits are going to keep coming. Last years numbers by Favre were off the scatter chart of his career patterns. Owners struck gold last season. This year it truly looks like he will have a tough time finishing the season. Even if he does finish, from a fantasy stand point the does not pose as a week to week starter.

Eli Manning-

A great running game is what broke Eli Manning from a questionable young quarterback to one that found a groove and growth rose with it. Manning is finding the hard way how life goes when one essential part of an offense is not there. Brandon Jacobs is capable of being a blocking fullback and short yardage guy these days, while Ahmad Bradshaw is a Darren Sproles type a few years ago. He can be relied on in certain games to carry the football but not every week. Manning has the receivers to overcome this but his health is going to be in extreme jeopardy on a week to week basis.

Matt Schaub-

The yardage amounts Schaub has thrown thus far is insane. Being alarmed with his pass attempts has to be a topic discusser amongst the Texans staff. Unlike the quarterbacks mentioned so far, Schaub has a running game he can depend on. Arian Foster broke out week one and two years ago Steve Slaton had a fabulous rookie season. The Texans can ill afford to lose Schaub for a short stint of games at any point this year if they want to challenge for a playoff spot. A differential of pass attempts from week two (52) and week one (17) might be a record. Expect the Texans to soften up the play call selection for the passing game and go back to week ones formula.

Tom Brady

The Patriots have never been a big running team. They had a year where Corey Dillon did some damage but for the most part they’ve lived and died with the pass. Where they usually make up for a poor running game is with the quick strike line of scrimmage dart pass, or the quick five yard route by Wes Welker. It’s worked for years. Trading away Laurence Maroney and seeing Kevin Faulk go down to a season ending injury only means an increase of pass attempts for Brady. He threw 35 pass attempts week one and 36 week two. What will his average creep up to over the next four weeks?

Week Two Wonders

Tuesday, 21 September, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

There’s nothing like seeing someone explode on Sunday and the dash to rush to your computer to anticipate picking that athlete up. After grabbing him that week of excitement turns out to be that players season high for all around performance. It’s not just waiver wire athletes we look at. Will look at regular fantasy contributors as well that exceeded week two expectations. Owners that are in the hole can be duped by opposing owners selling an athlete higher than they should, and bolstering their squads for dominate runs.

Quarterbacks

Donovan McNabb-McNabb deserves a ton of praise for his performance to start the season. More people want to see him fail than succeed but he keeps proving doubters wrong. At that though he is on a team with a poor running game with two old backs as options. Picking a part the Texans will be McNabb’s best performance by far. Unless the Redskins get involved in exchanging Albert Haynesworth for Vincent Jackson or another receiver. If that happens, McNabb could continue to be a fantasy factor. Now with Joey Galloway as second receiver it’s just not a possibility.

Mark Sanchez-  For those believing Sanchez has even a sliver of fantasy value better jump off the band wagon. He delivered some key throws for the Jets but the same has been the case in the past for Jake Delhomme. It was one good half by Sanchez, that’s it. He’ll have more downs than ups this year and will continue to be shackled by the Jets play calling to limit his mistakes.

Shaun Hill- Detroit’s wishing he could have delivered as well as he did Sunday a week before against the Bears. There’s no side tracking Detroit’s offensive talent. Jahvid Best looks like he is the front runner for rookie of the year. Hill though has been a Jay Fiedler like performer in the past. He did most of his damage when the Eagles let up defensively with a comfortable 35-17 lead.

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy-  Yardage wise McCoy could be a top ten back this year. Factor in his rushes with yardage pass catching. Touchdowns though is a different story. Expect a large lapse of production from his first two weeks. In the first two weeks he has totaled what he did as a rookie with four touchdowns. McCoy’s touchdowns have come from fairly long distances. Another area backs can’t keep up. If we see him score more inside the five yard line, than we will become a believer.

Tim Hightower- Hightower has that big play potential and provided the lone Cardinals big play Sunday. Busting on the right edge and bursting down the sideline for a long touchdown. Hightower’s going to be a steady fantasy backup running back, but will lose a considerable amount of value once Beanie Wells is healthy.

Mike Tolbert- Tolbert’s the Ron McLain type which can be an occasional starter when injuries present themselves. McLain did that a few times for the Ravens but like Tolbert he is a situational short yardage and goal line back.

Wide Receivers

Mike Sims-Walker- He was a waiver wire gem last year. This year he can be a third wide receiver in deep leagues but besides that more of a suitable bye week filler. It’s not Walker’s talents hindering him, it’s the offense. David Garrard might be the most struggling quarterback in the league still holding his job.

Joey Galloway- At 38 Galloway is giving it his all out there but just like last year he’ll fade out.  Were sure he has a zero percent ownership but there’s someone out there that noticed his deep ball patterns with McNabb. One was caught and one Galloway lost a half step on a perfect throw. The yardage numbers (88) Galloway had he might not equal in the next six games.

Kevin Walter- Time and time again he has monster games. Schaub had a career day that few will ever come close to, including himself. Walter is an aging receiver that is being pushed by Jacoby Jones. As the season goes on we expect Jones to be a higher impact receiver than Walter.

Waiver Wire Post Week Two

Monday, 20 September, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Hopefully everyone was able to read our sleeper starters for this past week. As a handful of the guys listed on this weeks waiver wire pickup are guys that we tabbed as sleepers for week two. Usually it takes an injury for a player to step in and make the most of an opportunity. There were a few this weekend that make for a classic waiver wire bidding scramble.

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman- Freeman’s doing enough each week to show subtle growth for a young quarterback. He doesn’t have the great run support but the team has a solid balance that’s working. As the season goes on he should develop an even better rapport with his rookie wide receivers. When his third year approaches a year from now he could be a viable starter in deep fantasy leagues.

Kyle Orton- Hands down Orton has been the best turn around quarterback of the last few seasons. In Chicago he backed up Rex Grossman of all people. They were both forced out of Chicago after musical chairs of dismal seasons with both. Orton landing in Denver as part of the Cutler trade was a joke of jokes around NFL circles. Orton’s held up his part of the bargain and doesn’t look like even Tebow’s name can supplant him.

Bruce Gradkowski- Gradkowski was one of many quarterbacks on Sunday that was called to replace a starter. Unlike other backups, Gradkowski came in and provided the spark to get his team a win. Jason Campbell struggled again. The Raiders have enough talent to maybe have to think about starting Gradkowski.

Running Backs

Donald Brown- Brown didn’t touch the ball week one mainly due to the Colts being down early to the Texans. Indianapolis got back to their game plan against the Giants, and showed a strong ground game. Indianapolis will likely have their fair share of games when they’re ahead comfortably. Even with that extra area to pad his stats, Brown seems to have a chance of getting ten carries a game as part of the Colts regular game plan.

Marshawn Lynch- Were not sure how Buffalo’s planning on splitting the backfield up between Lynch, Jackson, and Spiller. You’d expect Spiller to be the main threat after the Bills invested a first rounder on him. Lynch was perceived as being in the Bills dog house and on his way out. He led the Bills with seventeen carries Sunday. Even though he did not have a ton of yardage the amount of carries he had is fantasy friendly. Buffalo may hand the ball off every carry rather then have Trent Edwards attempt a pass.

Mike Tolbert- The bowling ball is typically the Chargers fullback, but has the ability to carry the load every down. Time will tell how long Ryan Matthews will be affected with his injury. Tolbert ran the ball effectively and scored two touchdowns Sunday, something Matthews had not been able to do thus far. Tolbert’s available in most leagues and even if Matthews is back next week, San Diego will likely lessen Matthews burden after Tolbert’s performance. The worst situation for Matthews owners is if Tolbert becomes the inside the five yard line running back.

Jason Snelling- Down goes Michael Turner again. Word is he should be back without worries. Turner wasn’t the only Falcon to go down though as Jerious Norwood did as well. Snelling stepped in and delivered a monster game. Three touchdowns in all and was effective both rushing and catching the football. The combo of Snelling and Turner could bolt up to the top five duel backfields in the league.

Wide Receivers/Tight End

Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)- We’ve been praising Williams in the off-season and the first two weeks of the regular season. He should have been a first round pick if it weren’t for some questionable decisions while at Syracuse. His talent is there and his shown it by catching a touchdown in both games this year. As Freeman becomes more comfortable in the pocket Williams stats will get even better.

Brandon Tate- Tate is getting integrated into the Patriots offense more and more. We see him blossoming as the year goes on and becoming a regular contributor to Tom Brady’s stat line. With rumors of Randy Moss not being resigned, and Wes Welker coming off a surgically repaired knee, Brandon Tate is the future for New England at wide receiver.

Kevin Walter- This guy is like a unpredictable weather pattern a meteorologist can’t figure out. For years he has scattered around big games here and there teasing fantasy owners. With the Texans we know that he can be a number five receiver in fantasy leagues. Matt Schaub’s on his way to being the yardage leader for the second year in a row. Someone besides Andre Johnson’s going to get a portion of that and Walter will be the beneficiar. The problem with Walter is when he goes off you’ll likely have him on your bench.

Aaron Hernandez- He looks nothing like a tight end on the field. Fernandez gets open with ease and may already be the top tight end at gaining yards after the catch. Impressive ability to make quick cuts and turn a routine play into a thirty or forty yarder.

Louis Murphy- If Bruce Gradkowksi has stolen the starting quarterback role from Jason Campbell, Louis Murphy shoots up the waiver wire. Not only the waiver wire but possibly as a third or fourth receiver instead of a fifth or sixth on fantasy teams. Gradkowski has that connection on point with Murphy. Last year when Gradkowski started a stretch of games for the Raiders, Murphy had three touchdowns and a monster game against Pittsburgh during a four game stretch. Sunday, Murphy did almost all his damage once Gradkowski had entered the game. Receiving ninety yards to go along with a touchdown.

Maroney a Bronco

Tuesday, 14 September, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

New England has finally given up on one of their long term busts, Laurence Maroney. Maroney showed glimpses his rookie season of being a back of the future for the Patriots. After that year though he struggled to do much of anything on a consistent basis. At times the Patriots had to go with Sammy Morris, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, and even Kevin Faulk.

By bringing in Fred Taylor last off-season, Maroney figured to have a complement back to split carries with. Still he couldn’t muster anything on his last straw with the coaching staff. Denver agreed to trade a sixth round pick for him, and now has a crowded backfield.

It’s safe to say that Knowshown Moreno’s starting role is not in jeopardy. Denver went through preseason with their backfield banged up, so this is likely insurance if that circumstance re-arises. Correll Buckhalter is the current backup, but he has had a long history of nagging injuries. Moreno has struggled holding onto the football, and had a critical fumble week one versus the Jaguars.

All in all, Maroney may end up being cut at some point by Denver if he doesn’t show value. He needs to step up to the plate this time and get in the mix in Denver. Denver does love to run the football, and if he can get in the mix, Maroney could be a McGahee type to Moreno. That’s one department where he has had some effectiveness. A knack to get in the end zone.

For New England this move means they have more faith in Fred Taylor than anyone would of thought. Taylor is entering his thirteenth season and will likely be in some sort of 70/30 split carry load with Sammy Morris. Taylor still has the gears in his giddy up to be a fantasy producing back. It’s still a shocker to see this move by New England as Taylor has been fairly non-existent the past two seasons.

Belicheck has a plan so will see if it involves another trade or gambling on a rookie free agent.