Weekly Analysis

Jacobs This Years McGahee/L. White

Tuesday, 26 October, 2010

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Fantasy owners we already leery on where to take Brandon Jacobs after his dismal season a year ago. Yet he allegedly was healthy and ready to bounce back into his 2008 form. It didn’t take long for Tom Coughlin and the world to see that Jacobs can not be an every down back. Commend Tom Coughlin for pulling the plug early and shifting the weight of carries to Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s done a solid job gaining yardage for fantasy owners, but when it comes to touchdowns it’s one sided.

Over the last four games Jacobs has scored five touchdowns and is averaging a little over twelve fantasy points a game. His doing all of this while only garnering around eight carries a game. That tells you he and the Giants are making the most of his plays on the field. Now Jacobs is not taking too large of a load that he can’t handle. He is coming in and being that big bruising back we’ve come to expect, instead of stutter stepping and being hesitant.

Ahmad Bradshaw has done nothing but overachieve for fantasy owners. Basically having an equivocal year statistically to what he accomplished a year ago. As the season wears on a red flag has to start to be waved by the Giants and fantasy owners. For the Giants they want to protect Bradshaw from overexerting himself. They’ll need him to perform the way he is now deep into the season and playoffs.

He is not a back that’s had full time carries before in his career. Where that jumps out more than anywhere is his fumbling issues. Bradshaw already has four lost fumbles on the year. Talk about Tiki Barber all over again. He is fumbling the ball once every thirty three carries. Coughlin will not stand for that.

If it were not for Jacobs fumbling the ball in the second quarter, we believe the carry ratio would have expanded more evenly starting against the Cowboys. Jacobs has worked his way out of the doghouse, and we expect him to get between ten and twelve carries a game the rest of the season. The Giants offense is one of the top five in terms of scoring. Let downs offensively don’t seem to be in the picture. Manning has the top set of trio receivers in the league. Pouring it on and scoring 30 plus points a game may happen.

So if you’re a Brandon Jacobs owner he is an automatic flex starter from here on out. If you’re struggling at running back, he is even a viable starter. He is on a fantastic touchdown streak. Like backs in the past that gobble up touchdowns in the redzone, Jacobs could be due for a two to three touchdown game in the near future. Finishing with double digit touchdowns is an easily foreseeable goal. Who would of imagined Jacobs fitting in the Giants plans the way he was sobbing and looked after week one?

Bowe A One Week Wonder

Wednesday, 20 October, 2010

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Fantasy owners that pointed at their bench to their buddies and said, “see, see, if I would of started Dwayne Bowe I would of won this week,”. You’ve got to love the owners that hype their teams up through their bench than the win/loss column. Dwayne Bowe has had plenty of opportunities this season to emerge as he did a few years ago. Being a disappointment thus far in 2010 is a huge understatement.

Bowe’s had issues abound this year. Matt Cassel’s looked his way and Bowe has not been able to deliver as a number one receiver. Nothing was worse than his play against the Colts. Indianapolis ranks right up there with poor pass defenses, and Bowe could not thrive. He was able to get open and then the football was reminded of Bowe’s hands. Laying the pigskin on the turf happened on wide open routes, including an actual nice throw by Cassel in the end zone. His play in that game basically cost the Chiefs as they eventually got into a fourth quarter hole against the Colts.

Seeing Bowe become a fantasy impact player week six was not surprising. Houston’s pass defense is what might prevent them from making the playoffs. They’ve giving up an incredible amount of yards and points as a unit. It’s the type of game though that could break Bowe out of his funk.

He will never be considered a fantasy every week starter with Matt Cassel at quarterback. He can though be an injury/bye week/first off the bench at receiver position athlete. Kansas City has their style of play down pat for the rest of the year. With Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles they have two backs that can split the load at a high number of carries each. The team knows that counting on Cassel to be their number one option offensively is not a key to winning. He just hasn’t grasped the teams playbook and has struggled overall.

If you are forced to start Bowe, it’s always going to be a high risk. Look around the league and you’ll see that the majority of quarterbacks are throwing 25, 30, or even higher pass attempts a game. Don’t be fooled that Cassel has actually thrown the ball for an average of 6.2 yards per completion. An insanely poor statistic. Cassel’s play of checking down is exactly what the Cardinals passed on with Matt Leinart in preseason.

Chances of Cassel getting benched likely won’t happen at this point. The only way you’d start Bowe is for reasons mentioned in the last paragraph, or if you’re extremely strong with your fantasy running backs. Even if Bowe goes out and has a string of solid games to parlay last weeks, we don’t see him getting far beyond last years numbers. Trading him to a desperate owner is your best bet of getting any long term value out of him.

Joe Lopat, Zack Cimini, and Jabbar Harris return once again to talk football hot topics, as well as their usual fantasy football segments. They’ll tell you who to start/sit and provide spread picks for week seven.

Backs To Eye

Wednesday, 20 October, 2010

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Every year as the injuries pile up teams find a gem buried on their roster. We’ve seen flashes from some of the guys mentioned below already this year. More than likely most of them are available on your waiver wire. We profile eight guys that have little fantasy relevance right now but may have an opportunity to shine and save your fantasy season.

Brandon Jacobs- He is not in any way shape or form a fantasy stud, but the Giants have a prolific offense. They move the ball up and down the field with ease, and lately Jacobs has been capitalizing on it. He has scored touchdowns in each of the last three weeks and has been ticking off Ahmad Bradshaw owners.

Chris Ivory- Word is even if Pierre Thomas returns, Ivory has played his way into a complimentary role with Thomas. Will have to see if Thomas can stay away from the injury bug and how this plays out overall. With the amount of throws Drew Brees has per game, the Saints crowded backfield could be detrimental for any type of reliable fantasy numbers.

Derrick Ward- Steve Slaton is completely out of the picture with the Texans. It’s astonishing to see that with the way his rookie season went. Ward has solidified the backup role and has done a swell job. If you’re an Arian Foster owner make sure you take note. Handcuffing Foster with Ward is a must.

Mike Hart- Colts are on a bye week with a plethora of injury issues. At running back Joseph Addai has been dinged up continuously this year, and Donald Brown’s had a tough go with a hamstring injury. Hart’s scored a touchdown this year and might have to start a few games for the Colts.

Danny Woodhead- An emergency filler for fantasy teams. Woodhead is filling Kevin Faulk’s old role and may keep it. New England loves to throw the short dink and dump throws to all their players. Woodhead keeps getting involved more and more each week and is becoming a main threat for the Patriots. He poses a mismatch for opposing linebackers. With all the Patriots receivers running short routes it’s too difficult for teams to shackle everyone.

James Starks- Jackson has done little with his starting role and the Packers need someone to alleviate the pressure off of Aaron Rodgers. Starks just came off the PUP list and will likely not be used for a week or so. Remember Starks had a second round grade by NFL scouts before sustaining an MCL injury his senior year.

Javon Ringer- We’ve talked about the worries of Chris Johnson in previous articles. He is roughly 200 pounds and has been getting pounded thus far. Teams are stacking the box with eight or nine guys and laying tough licks on him. It’s just bound to happen that Ringer either gets more involved, or Johnson gets hurt.

LeGarrette Blount- Blount was inactive this past week but that should not happen again. Kareem Huggins was lost for the season, and the Buccaneers have been awful running the ball. They may split carries all around for a few weeks, but Blount should separate himself to be the number one guy. Going into the off-season he will be their clear cut fantasy starter.

Joe Lopat, Zack Cimini, and Jabbar Harris return once again to talk football hot topics, as well as their usual fantasy football segments. They’ll tell you who to start/sit and provide spread picks for week seven.

Waiver Wire Post Week Five

Tuesday, 12 October, 2010

By Zack Cimini

We’re getting close to the mid season stretch. There’s no bye weeks in the fantasy world and a shortened fantasy season at that. It’s basically panic time to do a trade or find that waiver wire gem to convert your team if you’re winless or only have a win or two. Whose available to look at? Last year we told you to snag Jamaal Charles around this time before Larry Johnson went his final slide. We’ve got some backs we think we’ll enter the fold this year and provide a huge mid to late season spark for your teams.

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman- Of the young quarterbacks in the league Freeman is starting to emerge from the pack. He has a solid reportoire of throws and doesn’t destroy a fantasy team with interceptions. He is consistently targeting rookie Mike Williams and taking a bigger role with a lackluster running game. As the season wears on Freeman is going to be counted on to make even bigger plays with his arm. They’ve been winning tight games to have a winning record at 3-1. Take a flyer on Freeman if you’re hurting at quarterback or looking for one that will be pivotal during fantasy playoffs.

Kevin Kolb- Chances are he was abandoned by any owner that drafted him once Vick entered the fold. He made some solid plays against the 49ers and the Eagles got a pivotal win. The back and forth circus with the Eagles quarterbacks is going to have to end soon. A hot streak by Kolb would force the Eagles to keep playing whose winning games.

David Garrard- Garrard’s put together two solid fantasy games in a row. Scoring three touchdowns in both. The yardage isn’t there and at best Garrard is only an option in deep fantasy leagues. You could plug him in as a bye week filler or give him a shot a few times when matchups present themselves.

Running Backs

Fred Jackson- With Marshawn Lynch out of the fold we all did not know how the Bills would divide carries amongst Jackson and Spiller. Jackson seems to be the number one back as he doubled Spiller’s Sunday. It could be a back and forth carry load between the two. Value is there with Jackson though especially with the Bills trying to control the ball and limit their passes.

Javon Ringer- Keep an eye on the Titans love affair to fill Chris Johnson’s preseason predictions. They’re giving him a ton of carries and he has taken a beating for five games for it. The breakaway runs are not occurring at the high pace we saw last year. He’s still piling hundred yard games but they’re in the power back style of yards not the flashy explosive way of a year ago. If this style keeps up there is no doubt Johnson will get hurt. He doesn’t have the size to take the hits he has for sixteen games. Ringer can fill in and prove to be a fantasy midseason gem.

LeGarette Blount- Tampa Bay needs to make a decision at running back. Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham are not going to be backs that can carry you to a playoff run. This team will fade if they keep putting it in those backs hands. Blount has had more opportunities as a young back than anyone could of imagined. The talent is there and Tampa will slowly but surely move the carries into his hands.

Jerome Harrison- He is back to full health and getting a handful of carries the past few weeks. Don’t wait for a monster game from him before getting him on your roster. Bury him now and wait for the magic.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis- Sooner or later facts are just facts. His whole career Lewis had one fantasy game a year that he would dot the radar. Now he is an emerging force that has to be recognized. He has five touchdowns on the year and has bypassed all Jaguars receivers as Garrard’s favorite target. Yardage still is not very high but that’s correlated to David Garrard’s overall numbers.

Danny Amendola- The Rams are going to have to rely on Amendola the Hard Knocks profiled Cowboy of a year ago booted out. They’ve had a cast of receivers drop that made them trade for Mark Clayton. Now that he has went down it’s going to be Amendola’s show. Poor Sam Bradford.

Deion Branch- Reuniting in New England makes Branch a season long waiver wire play to a guy worth looking at. He’ll step in an offense that needs his play and is one he is familiar with. Injuries may have slowed him down but expect extra pep in his steps now that he is on a winning team.
Ted Ginn Jr.- Ginn was a first round pick do not forget. Number ninth drafted in fact. Even a year ago he was shockingly the Dolphins number one receiver. He’ll never be a number one go to guy but can flourish with his speed opposite someone like Michael Crabtree. Ever since the 49ers fired the offensive coordinator Alex Smith’s yards have went up and the offense has clicked better. Who knows how much longer Smith will be out under center for the 49ers. Ginn’s made a small impact his first two games back and should continue to get more involved as he gets back on track from early season injuries.

Steve Johnson- Any time Ryan Fitzpatrick has a decent throwing day, Johnson’s in the stat column. Four touchdowns on the year already and getting involved more and more on every down situations. Lee Evans has taken a step back this year and Johnson appears to be the emerging option as sad as that sounds.

Week Five Fantasy Podcast

Thursday, 7 October, 2010

Notjustagame.com hosts another weekly podcast. We discuss hot topics of the NFL. Discussions on Jay Cutler, Randy Moss, Marshawn Lynch, dink and dump offenses, and much more. We also give a few solid spread plays and under the radar starters/benchings for the week.

How LT’s Fantasy Role Will Venture

Wednesday, 29 September, 2010

By Zack Cimini
Notjustagame23@gmail.com

For all the bad publicity the New York Jets have received this year there has been a very bright spot. Their signing of LT has quietly been the key to their early season success. He has by far outperformed Shonn Greene. Greene was expected to storm by LT, and make him look like a cast away veteran in the last stage of his career. Instead Greene looks like LT’s backup. Fantasy owners have to be boiling that drafted Greene as he has done little. Most likely you’ve been forced to start him based on the position you drafted him.

LT’s departure from San Diego wasn’t handled in the best way, but LT acted like a business man during the whole matter. He could have been bitter and voiced his opinion in a fashion that tore apart the organization. Everyone knows the Chargers have not been the best in handling situations with their players. As the writing was on the wall, LT looked for a place that he felt he could still thrive and win a title.

The way LT has been hitting the whole he looks like he may get the last laugh on the rest of the league that was ready to write him off. Brian Shottenheimer currently calls the first half run plays as even as possible. LT and Greene get to showcase for full time second half duties. Whoever is performing better gets the bulk of those second half carries. For the first three games those carries have shifted to LT. Currently he has over 200 yards rushing with a whopping 5.6 yards per carry average.

The burden he has lifted off of Mark Sanchez has been enormous. Could you imagine how the Jets would have started the season with just Greene as the main back? Teams would have had a feast and forced the Jets to throw every down like some teams are forced. As erratic as Sanchez has been who knows how he would of handled the pressure. Starting off the year poor with a young quarterback could have dug Sanchez a mental blow he would of never got out of. You just don’t know how a quarterback is going to handle himself under the scope of an increased role.

With Sanchez having the comfort ability of a veteran back he is slowly emerging into a quarterback. Before you could tell Sanchez’s play calls were scripted. One or two reads and deliver the football. The Jets were not going to take chances with him. Now he is lobbing paces up and trusting Dustin Keller. He’s also making some precision throws and prime spots.

Shonn Greene will break out of his bog soon. Once he does who knows how scary this team is going to be. Defensively they’ve been stout. If this offense picks up momentum, watch out. Sanchez is likely going to go into the playoffs with a phenomenal rushing attack. Santonio Holmes will be back from suspension soon. Adding another big play threat to replace Jerricho Cotchery who is at best a fourth receiver on most teams.

Praise the Jets for their signing of LT and for the way he has responded. He is having more of a fantasy impact than he has in a long time. The past two seasons he looked dog tired and physically not there. Whatever it was….rest, new regimen, or a new beginning, it is working for LT. He is not a fantasy starter but is one of the highest ranking third backs to have on a fantasy team. You never know what’s going to happen over the course of the year. He could be that familiar weapon that you need down the stretch when injuries begin to take place.