Weekly Analysis

Back To The Year of the Running Backs

Friday, 2 September, 2011

 

By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

As your numerous fantasy drafts of the summer come to a close, your probably strategizing even more for this last one. There hasn’t been too many affects injury wise, as in years past. There are some glaring holes at certain positions though, making it critical that you do not wait too long to draft a certain player.

One area that will have a down year comes at the quarterback position. The last few years owners may have become accustomed to the high yardage and multiple touchdown throws from a high amount of quarterbacks. You could plug in your second tier quarterbacks and get decent results. This year though should be different and shift back to years past.

There are too many quarterback changes around the league . Rookies in Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Second year starters in Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. Veterans that have struggled throughout their career but remain starters; Alex Smith, David Garrard, Tavaris Jackson, and Chad Henne. On top of those guys you have the erratic quarterbacks such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, etc. that will drive fantasy owners crazy.

So unlike in prior years where we could and would wait to draft a quarterback late, this isn’t the year to do so. You do not want to have to rely on Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, or Jay Cutler as your starter. They’ve proven both sides of the spectrum from a fantasy standpoint. You have to secure yourself one of the top eight to ten quarterbacks, there are no buts about draft strategy to argue this.

Stock piling at running back like the glory days should be heightened. Coaches around the league are going to force feed the ball to their running backs. With decreased experience and snaps due to the lockout, quarterback play is going to be behind regardless of experience. Running the football is a skill that doesn’t require extensive snaps. It’s a skill you either have or you don’t.

Gems on the waiver wire at running back will surely be had. Do not be stuck in a situation where you are loaded at running back and have faulted at quarterback. You’re going to need those consistent points of a solid quarterback to get those decisive wins. It’ll be the difference in a couple of extra wins, or the lame excuse of if I started this player, I would have easily won.

Get on board the proper way. Analyze the market like stocks. It’s a bad year for quarterbacks, and they’re going to have plenty of growing pains. The tier of guys that could excel beyond expectations are young guys that we haven’t seen take that full next step. The Matt Staffords, Josh Freemans, and Sam Bradford. Some of you out there are going to risk it enough to have a jumbled mess at quarterback.

Don’t be like the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Bengals, Panthers, 49ers, and Redskins. In abysmal situations at quarterback and undecided with their situations.

Who Will Free Up Fitz?

Tuesday, 23 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

For once the Cardinals front office did something they tend to never do. Sign a marquee player that was an original draftee. Time and time again the Cardinals would let a player walk instead of electing to fork up the millions. There were likely other variables to the Cardinals not resigning anyone. Including the top fact that they were a bottom cellar team for years that players wanted to bolt from.

There were only a handful of players that could be linked back to the Cardinals from the 1990’s. David Boston because of a steroid scandal and monstrous statistical year. Jake Plummer because he actually led the Cardinals to a playoff victory, but was a roller coaster pocket passer. Aeneas Williams and Larry Centers are two guys that actually stayed with the team for quite some time and had individual success. Pat Tillman goes without any elaboration.

This team has seen its ups and downs. When the team ultimately decided not to renew Anquan Boldin, many fans figured this was the same old Cardinals front office. In this short off-season, they also let Steve Breaston walk from his expired rookie contract. So now two of the three Cardinals receivers that Kurt Warner counted on were gone.

In comes new quarterback Kevin Kolb who luckily had been training most of the summer with Larry Fitzgerald. Something finally clicked in the Cardinals front office when they leashed out millions on Kolb. He is a young quarterback with many years in front of him. Why not give him a premier receiver to throw to for an x amount of years. Eight years, and $120 million later the Cardinals took care of business before it got ugly.

Fitzgerald had the right to walk without being labeled with the franchise tag. A poor sixteen games with a new quarterback, and maybe Fitzgerald’s mind wanes and looks elsewhere. Now if that happens, the hard worker in Fitzgerald will have Kolb on speed dial to get things better in the off-season. Scenarios that probably won’t be as drastic as mentioned, but if you’re a GM those are things you need to think about.

Two pieces are put together, and they are two very big ones. Behind Fitz though there will be some no name young athletes. Which ones will step up and be relied upon for fantasy football teams?

Looking at the Cardinals roster, you can see where the shift of salary at wide receiver lies. Right at the top. Not much is coming out of the wallets of the Bidwells behind Fitzgerald. Factor in Todd Heap as a significant upgrade at tight end to what fans have been accustomed to the last fifteen years.

Chansi Stuckey has been written off and right now is drifting from team to team as a special teams player. Spread formations will likely be ran by the Cardinals, and the two that will be in should be Early Doucet and Andre Roberts. Doucet is the more experience and has been working behind Fitz and Boldin for years. He has the frame of Boldin, but has been too inconsistent.

If he drops the ball, look for Andre Roberts to slip past Doucet. Roberts had a decent rookie season, and has electrifying speed. For the quarterbacks Roberts had last year, you could say he had an above expectations type of year. Unless you’re in deep leagues, both Roberts and Doucet could end up undrafted. We like Roberts as a better option as the season extends, and for a bigger fantasy impact.

Ricky a Raven

Tuesday, 9 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

It’s always hard to tell what you’re going to get from a veteran signing a short term deal. A new location, reduced role, and a body that has taken a toll over the years. Down in Miami, the case of building forward with veteran running backs likely went on a year too long. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gave the Dolphins solid years, but neither was a capable every down back a year ago. It ultimately put more pressure on Chad Henne, who wasn’t ready for the heightened role.

Miami did the right thing this off-season, by letting both Brown and Williams go as free agents. Both went to teams that are hoping to be right on the door steps of a possible Super Bowl run. Will Ricky Williams be a guy that can contribute as a complement to Ray Rice?

First think of the back that Ricky Williams is stepping in to replace. That would be Willis McGahee. McGahee also endured a solid tenure as a Raven. For all the times the Ravens thought about cutting or trading him, he brought toughness to the field each and every week. He became a battering back, that was as reliable as any as a short yardage plunge type back. He racked up enough touchdowns that many fantasy owners believed reduced Ray Rice’s value by a few spots.

Remember Williams has played the second back role for many years now. He is a 34 year old back, with the legs of a 30 year old in running back years. That is if you factor in the time he missed with suspensions and injuries. When he came back as a Dolphin, he split carries with Ronnie Brown. When Brown went down in 2009, Williams showed that he still can be counted on for a sixteen game season. Rushing for 1000 yards for the first time since 2003.

Williams is a guy though that has had issues in the past. Will a new environment affect his psyche? Possibly. Going to a team that is already veteran laden should help though. He also should feel pressure free. Ray Rice is going to garner a ton of carries and Williams will likely get the least amount of carries he has ever had in a full season.

Is he worth drafting as a fantasy back? Any backup running back is worth drafting just for insurance purposes. Handcuffing a first round pick such as Ray Rice could be the difference in you missing out of the playoffs. Williams likely won’t be a fantasy factor for 2/3 of the games he plays in this season. But an injury or a game in which the Ravens are blowing out an opponent could produce those four to five games that Williams is fantasy relevant. So yes, take Williams late as your fifth back if you can.

No Changes for Giants Backfield

Friday, 5 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Little noise has been created for the other New York team. The New York Giants swayed from resigning Plaxico Burress, and stuck to their core structure as a team overall. Tom Coughlin’s always been an in-house kind of guy. Teaching and training through his proper system and instilling his overall team concept. It’s worked in the past for Jacksonville’s success, and obviously in New York where they have won a Super Bowl.

No big signings have come from the New York Giants. Just a solid draft and retaining some key free agents. Their bright nucleus of wide receivers remain intact, and will likely blossom even further this season. The area in which many are surprised a move wasn’t made would have to be at running back.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have had their fair share of ups and downs as Giants. Jacobs went from a breakout back to bust in a quick time span. Last year though, with the Giants relegating his carries he showed proper production as the second option back. Bursting through tacklers late in games and tacking on touchdowns gave Jacobs fantasy value once again. We all knew Jacobs would be back in 2011, it was who he would be paired with that was the question.

Ahmad Bradshaw had an out the gate type of 2010 season. Starting off so well that he supplanted Jacobs as feature back with ease. The grind of carries can typically catch up to a back in the latter parts of the year. For Bradshaw he hit a wall basically at the midpoint of the year. His value and stock dropped dramatically as he only produced one game over a hundred yards. What made matters worse was the fact that he fumbled the ball at a high rate.

As Bradshaw became less dependable that was when Brandon Jacobs seemed to resurrect. He had a three game tear weeks twelve through fourteen in which he averaged nearly one hundred yards a game. Even when he wasn’t having monster games from a yardage standpoint, he was the second half factor back for the Giants. Garnering the key carries, mostly because Tom Coughlin was likely afraid of Bradshaw coughing up the football.

So with this duo back together in 2011, fantasy owners have to be juggling to decide who will do what. One thing that can’t be taken away from either is they will produce touchdowns. The Giants run the football with the best of any NFL team. Another great plus is how the Giants spread the football around through the air. With all of their great targets it opens up the running lanes and keeps defenses on their heels. While Jacobs will burst through tacklers, Bradshaw has the long gainer ability that he is well known for.

We are worried that Ahmad Bradshaw may have had an above average season last year. He just didn’t have the feature back skills of a top tier back the second half of last season. He’ll likely slip in drafts a tad, but is a viable bottom tier number two fantasy starter, and great third option. Jacobs on the other hand will offset his five to seven points average of rushing yards, with a solid scatter of single or two touchdown games. His a quiet fantasy force that will give you close to ten points a game.

Jacobs isn’t a back that you would want to count on, but he’ll end up being one of those backs you drafted late that sneaks up your roster depth chart as a starter.

McNabb: First Tier or Second Tier Fantasy Quarterback?

Thursday, 4 August, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Attacking the free agency market for suitable quarterbacks was a hot pursuit by many teams. As soon as the lockout was declared over, it seemed as if teams knew what they were going to do. Front offices began strategizing long before, and teams on the other side of the fence seemed to be prepared to wheel and deal.

Adam Schefter was live on ESPN as frequent as the tv guide channel scrolling back around a minute later. Reporting on rumors is what he has been use to in the past. That wasn’t the case when the lockout was lifted. Deals were getting done immediately. We will discount Matt Hasselbeck. He was never that impressive in Seattle. Even though he got ahold of a decent contract, it won’t be too long before Jake Locker is handed the keys.

The same could be said for Donovan McNabb, but it’s all in his hands. McNabb could have a solid two to three years left to truly end his career on a good note. Will the clowning antics that were seen in the playoffs with the Eagles in 2009 pop up, or the carefree lackadaisical routine snaps in Washington? For watchers of McNabb, you’ve seen it his whole career. His demeanor is never too serious, but he gets the job done.

Being on his third team in three seasons, he knows that opportunities are closing for himself. Starting in the NFL takes a week to week approach. For some reason or other, Mike Shanahan did not see that in many Redskins, including McNabb. It was better to see them part ways, then for McNabb to waste another year in Washington.

Talent wise, McNabb will have much better tools on his side. Adrian Peterson in the backfield automatically bumps up McNabb’s fantasy stock and likelihood of staying healthy a full season. We hate to do comparisons, but we will in this case with McNabb and Brett Favre. Similar to McNabb, Favre’s hands were tied on a team he had been with his whole career. They didn’t want him to start for the Packers anymore, but the team still owned his rights.

The Packers shipped Favre to the New York Jets, where he had a few solid games but it ended poorly. A deep end of the season slide, that made many believe he was done. Free agency changed all of that, and he landed on the Vikings. A team he would likely have went to had he been a free agent a year earlier. McNabb got dealt last season to a Washington franchise that has been the model of incorrect front office management. The same tailspin to end the season happened for McNabb.

This is the same quarterback that just a few years ago, led a Philadelphia Eagles team with his arm alone, a drive away from the Super Bowl. Down three scores, he threw rocket bombs to DeSean Jackson. The deep ball is still there for McNabb, as was apparent last year when he was able to hit Anthony Armstrong frequently. Armstong had a whopping 19.8 yards per catch a year ago.

You’d think the Vikings will make one more move at wide receiver. If not, at least McNabb has one great threat in Percy Harvin and a cross target in tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

With Moss announcing his retirement, it brings a perplexed icky feel to Vikings and NFL fans. Moss was back home halfway through last years season as a Viking. A coach that was on his way out, bumped Moss off the team without front office approval. If Moss would of finished the season as a Viking, you’d assume a deal would have been worked out with Moss after McNabb signed.

Doubting McNabb for one more push, don’t. He did it at Syracuse, and he did it numerous times as an Eagle for eleven seasons. We’d rank McNabb as a tier two quarterback at this point of his career. A tier two quarterback that could start six to seven fantasy games for you and put up top ten fantasy production for those weeks.

 

NFL: Team Deeply Affected by Lockout

Wednesday, 29 June, 2011

By Zack Cimini

The lockout imposes delayed reaction to just about everyone affiliated within an organization. Pressure of solidifying a deal is finally lurking with NFL training camps right around the corner. Both sides are expected to meet early next week for four days. Will these meetings bring about a resolution and get coaches and players back to proper preparation? Hopefully. Nobody wants to see pure rust the first two months of the NFL season, or worse a shortened season. Each year we see teams storm from the bottom and get on a run. That will not be a possibility if the season is shortened.

Veteran teams with coaching staffs that have been around have the advantage thus far. Forget the rookies and undrafted free agents that look good on paper. In all actuality not too many rookies put their stamp on the NFL in year one. There might be a game or two where they make the key play or have a solid game, but for the most part their play is sporadic. Sure they’ll be even rustier but coaches do not count on rookies to be the main spark anymore. CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, and even Michael Crabtree are all prime examples.

Young teams such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to be affected the most. Their coaching staff of the Buccaneers has built this young team up quickly. Glancing at the talent that came out of nowhere last season, the roster is filled with under five year players. Keeping that strong resurgence could have been a push in mini camp and off-season contact. Who knows if the players have maintained proper off-season work ethic or communication with each other.

Do not forget Raheem Morris had the team at six wins and prime to take on a playoff spot. An extremely tough division let alone conference meant a 10-6 record fell just short. Josh Freeman proved to be the difference maker of such a turn around from a 3-13 2009 season. He stood in the pocket and made the tough and proper reads. This was all being done early in the year without a running game to rely upon.

Towards the latter part of the season the team went with undrafted free agent, LeGarrette Blount. Blount went undrafted largely due to his disciplinary issues while at Oregon. A season long suspension was imposed by Oregon after a fight with a Boise State player in the first game of 2009. Blount was dropped by the Tennessee Titans and fell right into the hands of the Buccaneers. Cadillac Williams is a fan favorite and a strong willed athlete, fighting back from multiple injuries. But his days as a feature back have come and gone. Blount carried the load and caught the attention of NFL fans with his leaping burst against the Arizona Cardinals.

The carries will likely rise for him, but will he come to the Buccaneers in shape? A big back already, it could be a problem that lingers into the season. How about Josh Freeman’s new found chemistry with now second year pros in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn? The route running missed out on and constant barking of instructions from valuable assistant coaches is burning by the day.

The NFC South will likely be another dog fight and the toughest division again in the NFL. Predicting the Buccaneers finishing above .500 though doesn’t look likely.