Weekly Analysis

NFL: Tall Targets, Lob It Up

Thursday, 22 September, 2011

By Vidur Malik
notjustagame23@gmail.com

As the NFL becomes more and more of a pass-first league, the wide receivers that catch most of those passes are becoming even more crucial to a team’s success.

Smaller, quicker wideouts like Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson have risen to the elite level at the position, but no matter how the game evolves, height at the wide receiver spot will always be a valuable weapon.

Big receivers have always been sought after for what they can bring to a team. Receivers like Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall have been atop the leader board for wide receivers for several years now, and their combination of height and tremendous athleticism is what keeps them there.

The most obvious advantage for tall receivers is that they tower over the defensive backs who must cover them. This makes them bigger targets for quarterbacks, giving the passer some room for error: if Philip Rivers is throwing to Jackson, he doesn’t need to put the ball on them money every time because chances are Jackson can use his physical advantage to outmuscle a defender and come up with the ball.

If big receivers can combine their size with route-running ability, they can get open anytime and make up for any lack of speed they might have. Because their game is not based on speed, big receivers can stay productive for a long time. Plaxico Burress is the perfect example. Though he spent two years away from the game, he has picked up right where he left off so far. Even though he had to adjust to a new team during the lockout, Burress has still been able to catch four passes, including one for a touchdown, through two games with the New York Jets.

From a fantasy standpoint, big receivers are great pickups. As ideal red zone targets, they can get you touchdowns, and their size allows them to break tackles and gain extra yards after the catch, which will get you more points.

Johnson, Jackson and Marshall will already be on teams in your league, but there are other big receivers that you can probably still pick up. The San Diego Chargers’ Malcolm Floyd might be available in your league, and you might want to consider Roy Williams of the Chicago Bears if he can get healthy soon after hurting his groin in week one.

Big receivers will always be crucial to a team’s success through the air. Teams can get by without them, but when you’re in the red zone and need a touchdown, chances are a tall, strong target will have a better shot at getting you six points than a small slot receiver. Let that natural advantage benefit your team, and consider picking up a tall target if you don’t already have one.

Week Three: Scat Back/Return Specialist Impact

Wednesday, 21 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

More and more teams have that do it all role player, aka Kordell Stewart. Not nearly as many throws behind center as Stewart. Instead teams find a way to get their speedster home run threat involved not only in special teams but in some fashion as a receiver/pass catching running back. This role has expanded exponentially over the years. Some fantasy leagues offer points based on return yards. So if your league does why not get the bonus points of athletes that get involved in their teams offense as well?

Every three to four weeks I will update rankings on this rising fantasy impact area. Expect Jacoby Ford to get in this ranking when he comes back fully healthy.

1. Darren Sproles- He replaced Reggie Bush and seems to be an upgrade. He already has made a return for a touchdown, and is stretching out defenses with his speed in the open field.

2. Percy Harvin- Minnesota is doing all they can to involve Harvin at a higher rate than in years past. I’d like to see that carry over to a big day catching the ball soon. The short routes is not what Harvin excels at.

3. Dexter McCluster- McCluster is going to be a high target now that Jamaal Charles is out for the season. Leagues that offer return yards should already have McCluster on someones roster. Now you’ll get extra bonus points with McCluster who will get increased reps, and become a PPR monster to dink and dump captain Matt Cassel

4. Preston Parker- Quietly Parker is putting together one of the best sleeper fantasy seasons thus far. It is early but he returns both punts and kicks, and has become a high target of Josh Freeman’s.

5. Antonio Brown- Brown could get the top spot a few weeks from now. He is being targeted by Roethlisberger a bunch, including nine times last Sunday. Though he only caught four balls, it is intriguing to see his on field work increase.

6. Reggie Bush- One limited touch week and the media wants to blast Reggie Bush once again. Miami did not pay him the amount they did to limit him weekly. He’ll get his touches and have his best season statistically as a pro.

7. DejI Karim- Jacksonville has two positives for Karim’s fantasy value. They’re going to pound the football to try and keep the ball out of their horrible starting quarterbacks hands. And they’re going to be down a ton in many games, which means extra opportunites for returns from Karim.

8. Randall Cob- He’ll dot the fantasy scatter charts on and up and down basis. Don’t be surprised to see Cob get three to four touchdowns on returns this season.

9. Johnny Knox- I do not believe Roy Williams will be a factor the entire season. Look for the Bears to keep Knox involved for the comfort of Jay Cutler.

10. Josh Cribbs- Kind of a forgotten lost athlete in Cleveland, Cribbs was one of the few main contributing return fantasy impact guys a few years ago. Cleveland is working hard on developing him as a receiver. Last week he had forty yards receiving, but just has never shown value from a yardage/touchdown standpoint. The fact that he returns both punts and kickoffs heightens his specialist impact.

11. Devin Hester- He can run the Pierre Garcon routes, but problem is the Bears offensive line will never be able to protect Cutler long enough to deliver the ball.

12. CJ Spiller- Spiller finally showed some flashes rushing the ball with sixty yards Sunday. Thus far he isn’t close to being the first round talent the Bills thought they had. With Fred Jackson firmly as the number one back, Spiller can either make the most of his five to seven carries, or pout as the return specialist.

13. Davone Bess- Miami’s special teams has never been great. Bess can be counted on to get a ten to fifteen yard punt return here and there. His value is where he was drafted in fantasy leagues, at receiver.

14. Ted Ginn Jr.- The former ninth pick by Miami has been the best return man in football over the last few seasons. With injuries to Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree, Ginn got some action at receiver vs. Dallas, and will likely continue to do so. It’s a skill set that just doesn’t depart a talent as Ginn was at Ohio St. Maybe he’ll finally blossom with the Niners.

15. Jacoby Jones- Kevin Walters will likely retake his starting role from Jones. In the first two weeks Jones sure hasn’t shown that he has earned the nod.

16. Leon Washington- Washington’s nearing the end of a solid career. Injuries and being on a poor team derail his fantasy value.

17. Brad Smith
The Bills will work in Smith slowly. Running the wildcat with CJ Spiller in certain packages will improve as the season goes on. His first pass attempt this past Sunday did not go too well, as it was intercepted.

Over/Under on Games Mike Vick Plays In?

Friday, 16 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

The mega contract and all world 2010 season is what intrigued many fantasy owners to draft Vick highly. He admitted that he never worked on the little things or diving into his playbooks while an Atlanta Falcon. Throughout his entire time there he made plays based on his raw abilities. After being a wildcat down player in 2009, it was unclear whether Vick could or would be able to get back to the level of his pre-jail days.

Once Vick stepped in and electrified during Kevin Kolb’s absence, it was apparent he still had his legs left. The work ethic and drive to finally attack and fine tune his pocket presence and proper reads started to show dividends. He always had a cannon of an arm but laser throws would sail wide, high, or inaccurately to the ground. Those type of mistakes pop up now and again but not anywhere near the extremes they use to be.

With his demeanor and his play on the field, Vick has completed a 360 in life and in his profession. How that carries over during the tenure of his contact, will either create a lasting legacy or an end to a promising talent. Vick’s health will likely be the main issue if Vick can get it done or not.

Lets point out the facts. Mike Vick is 31 and has always never been a big bulky quarterback like most in the NFL. He is only 6’0 and is listed at 215, which I find questionable. His style of play has advanced but hasn’t changed over his career. His speed, nimbleness, and shiftiness is still there. That has resulted in some, “how did he do that” type of runs, and also some crushing blows upon impact from defenders.

He has got a lot better at recognizing when to slide and avoid unnecessary hits upon getting adequate yards with his legs. If it isn’t one issue with getting hit, it’s the other. Teams know the glaring weakness with the Eagles is their front line, and they aren’t afraid to send attacking blitzes to disrupt Vick. Ignoring his speed, they’re coming from all angles to cut the lanes of Vick’s scrambling away.

In week one alone, Vick was hit and hurried numerous times vs. the St. Louis Rams. Way too many for a signal caller that you want to lead you to a championship. With the hits piling up, it is going to affect in other areas of his passing game. Completions will decline. In week one he threw for less than fifty percent. Often balls were just rushed because he could not get that extra half second to step into his throw.

One of his strengths is the deep ball, and he has two great receivers to stretch the field. That requires an extra few seconds to let the play develop. Will Vick get flustered when plays don’t go according to plan on a consistent basis because of the offensive line constantly breaking down? We all saw in preseason that he made some poor reads just to get read of the ball.

Most importantly out of all of this, is the fact that Vick has been injury prone throughout his career. Last year it was his ribs, and in prior years it was a plethora of things. Keep in mind that this will be the first season Mike Vick tries to play a full sixteen games since the year 2006. That was a 26 year old Mike Vick.

Fantasy owners should not be laughing too hard at buddies that drafted Peyton Manning or were trapped in their dynasty leagues. More than likely at some point this year, you’re going to have to start your backup fantasy quarterback. Hopefully it’s not for an extended amount of games, but even one game could derail you from getting a playoff seed. Just like head coaches have to prepare for the worst, my advice is to do the same with Vick. Ensure you get a quality insurance quarterback for a just in case scenario.

Andrew Luck Sweepstakes for the Colts?

Thursday, 8 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

News this afternoon of Peyton Manning under going a third neck surgery can not be good news for football enthusiasts. From Colts fans to dynasty league owners that thought they were excluded from needing depth because of his starts history. This has all possible not goods to it. It doesn’t sound good, the fact that he hasn’t been able to participate and hasn’t been cleared for anything, doesn’t look good.

If the Colts kept news of Manning being declared out for Sunday’s start until just a few days ago, then how long do you think they’ll let the real information linger? Lately former NFL experts have been more up front about the difficulties coming back from a neck injury. Steve Young, Howie Long, Sterling Sharpe, have all disclosed pertinent information on this. The main forthcoming notes is that each successive issue makes it harder and harder. This could be a career ender.

Being a quarterback you have to be even more concerned for Manning. It has to be treated with extreme caution similar to a player returning with a concussion. As Kordell Stewart stated Wednesday, all functions start from the head down. Even if Manning is able to return, there are many variables to consider. His age, the teams age, and the rust of Manning missing an extended period of time.

As far as 2011, Kerry Collins is the quarterback for now. Think of the last 40 year old starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Of course Brett Favre tops the most recent list. Then you can date back to Doug Flutie and Vinny Testaverde. As the season goes on, the body beating takes it’s toll on the delivery of the football. The proper reads they see, there arm is a tad bit slower in delivering the football. Throw out Favre’s 2009 season, and think of those quarterbacks out their on display.

This brings a hot topic to the front of discussion. With the season in jeopardy, how will the Colts front office manage the year? Will they try and sign veteran David Garrard to see if they can make a run? Manning for years made this average team above average. So quarterbacks that are on the cusp of average will expose this team all out. Defensive coordinators will finally be able to attack freely without worries of getting burned over the top or across the field.

Remember Kerry Collins had the Tennessee Titans off to an 0-6 start out the gate, and basically forced the Titans to start Vince Young. As bad as Young is and was, he managed to get the Titans on a win streak. The season is not looking bright, but being in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is highly probable.

If Manning is out for the season, there is only the Seattle Seahawks that look like they would have a similar horrible record when the season ended. Even if some of the teams that are starting rookie quarterbacks end up towards the bottom of the NFL, they already have their signal caller for the upcoming years.

Wouldn’t that be something if the Colts were able to nab Luck, and Manning came back in 2012 fully recovered? Luck already showed patience in returning for his senior season, so sitting behind Manning would likely not be a problem. This would be awfully similar to what happened with the San Antonio Spurs. Aging veteran David Robinson was the heart and soul of the Spurs, and when he missed an entire season the team felt it 100%. Landing with the number one pick as a result, they built a formidable wall in the interior and Robinson had a wing man to dominate the paint.

Colts fans down right now have this other side of the spectrum to look at for the year, because it’s going to be an ugly one.

One Year Wonder at Quarterback?

Sunday, 4 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

All around the locker room typically when a team has a poor season the fingers start pointing at the foundation at quarterback. For the Buffalo Bills last season it was the opposite. They were in the majority of their games because of surprising quarterback play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. He came into the season ranked near the bottom of fantasy quarterback rankings, only too become a fantastic waiver wire pickup and viable fill in starter for teams that were suffering at quarterback.

Gaining confidence from your organization is an ultimate psyche booster. The Alex Smtih treatment the Bills were giving to Trent Edwards finally came to a halt. When the Bills said they have their guy at quarterback as the season unfolded, and in the early off-season, it had to of given Ryan a tremendous boost. Especially this past draft, in which quarterbacks were selected like it was a quarterback sweepstakes in 1999.

Can Fitzpatrick lift his accuracy woes he displayed last year? He only completed 57% of his passes even though he was able to keep defenses off guard?

His rise did come out of no where, since he had opportunities with the Rams and Bengals and didn’t necessarily look like more than a career backup to say the least . The stint with the Rams included an impressive outing against the Houston Texans, but his outings as a Bengal in place of an injured Carson Palmer were awful.

No one could have anticipated Fitzpatrick throwing for eleven touchdowns in his first four starts of the season in 2010.

The I don’t believe it until I see it carried over until that fourth game last year against the Ravens. Fitzpatrick absolutely picked apart the Ravens secondary, with precision and daring throws. His rise led to the catapult of Stevie Johnson, who also shot up the waiver wire to become a more than viable starter. It was apparent that Johnson had become the go to guy, and by dealing Lee Evans, Bills management had must feel secure with Johnson as the number one wide receiver.

Subtract those four games from Fitzpatrick’s year and the year looks blindingly bad. He did not start the first two games, but from week eight on he only threw for multiple touchdown throws twice. There are certain variables that would lead you to believe the reasoning to that. Buffalo never had a consistent running game with CJ Spiller not showing first round pick value as a rookie. Also his decline coincided with the Buffalo winter.

At 28 though, Fitzpatrick is now a capable veteran. Look for him to be the same hot potato type fantasy quarterback as last year. You’ll likely miss out on the four touchdown games, but he will serve his purpose as being a solid fantasy backup quarterback. A bye week filler and worst case injury fill in. Do we see Fitzpatrick throwing for 23 touchdowns in 2011? Maybe not that high. The Bills should get some sort of running game going, that should cut Fitzpatrick’s red zone touchdowns a tad.

Sleeper Running Backs

Saturday, 3 September, 2011

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

There’s nothing like nabbing a late round pick or middle round pick that turns out to be a true gem. Last year Arian Foster and Brandon Lloyd were the top of the pack in their positions for overturned value. Lloyd, had faded into a special teams athlete for a few years, and was sort of written off. No one really knew how Houston’s backfield would shape up. Most thought it would be running back by committee. When Ben Tate went down though, it really opened up things for Foster as the lone back. The rest is 2010 fantasy history.

Of course the number one reason for opportunity is typically injury. Watchout for Beanie Wells having a significant year compared to projections. No longer is he in the shadow or worrisome of Tim Hightower. Ryan Williams was supposed to be that threat, but went down to a season ending injury in week two of the preseason. LaRod Stephens-Howling is a scatback type, but won’t get more than five carries a game.

We have a few guys listed below that will likely get drafted in deeper leagues. Keep them stashed on your bench, as opportunity could come your way for these young athletes.

Delone Carter:

He was never exceptionally flashy at Syracuse, but he piled up a solid career. His nature of running the football isn’t going to benefit him for a long career, but his first five should be decent. He is an in between tackles runner, that is going to carry defenders and fall forward for extra yards. With Indianapolis getting impatient with former first round pick Donald Brown, and Addai’s injury struggles, Carter could be the main back by mid-season.

CJ Spiller:

After an extremely disappointing rookie year, Spiller has a lot to prove. He wasn’t supposed to just be a special teams force. The Bills spent a first round pick on him, and were willing to part with Marshawn Lynch. The backfield remains the same, meaning the Bills haven’t given up on Spiller yet. Look for Spiller to make more of his carries this year as he tries to gain back coaches trust. The Bills have likely got the cheapest backfield in the NFL.

Rashard Jennings:

When will the bowling ball, fade into the gutter lane? Maurice Jones-Drew has been able to sustain the hits even at his small stature. The reason is because of his tremendous sized thighs and quads. Yet, it hasn’t staved off soreness and minor injuries for Drew. He has fought through them somehow, but the message in Jacksonville seems to be a new change coming. Jennings has slowly gained carries from Drew. If the opportunity presents itself, Jennings has shown that he can get the job done.

Roy Helu:

Everyone has been ranting and raving over Tim Hightower. He is the perfect back to run the zone blocking scheme, etc. Hightower has had a dandy preseason, but what will happen when teams actually game plan against the Redskins? They’ll get after their main weakness, which is at quarterback. Once that happens, the holes will clog up. Hightower is a breakaway runner, not a slasher in between the tackles. His main issue will pop up again, as they have year after year. Fumble prone. It just doesn’t alleviate a running back. Shanahan is an impatient coach, and Helu has been just as impressive in the preseason.

Ben Tate:

There really is no reason too elaborate here. Tate has been a monster in the preseason and if it weren’t for Foster, would instantly shoot up to a top ten fantasy running back. Good luck to the rest of the NFL on shutting the two down.

Jacquizz Rodgers:

The mileage on Michael Turner’s legs is in need of a Ricky Williams hiatus to refuel. The pattern of backs being over ran and tanking is predictable. Turner might have a year left in him before he fades like Larry Johnson. Rodgers can fit the old mold the Falcons were accustomed to with Warrick Dunn. A small back, but one that can carry the load twelve to fifteen times a game.