Weekly Analysis

Back Most Affected by Dual Backfield System

Wednesday, 29 August, 2012

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Many fantasy owners are enamored by Reggie Bush heading into the 2012 season. As a Dolphin last year he finally had the type of success many thought he would getting drafted into the NFL. For a guy that has not had near the success in his first five seasons in New Orleans, many are wondering what will happen this year as a Dolphin.

While in New Orleans after failed chances at being the featured back, New Orleans decided to relegate his role to sort of a decoy. A few carries here and there and try to spring him out for quick passes to let him utilize his speed. When his free agency came along, the Saints did not feel the value offered by his agent was true to what he brings on the field.

Miami though decided they would try to re-tool and utilize him differently. Up until week thirteen of last year it looked as if Bush was going to have another sub-par season. He only had one game rushing over 100 yards up until that point, and Miami was content at using Daniel Thomas just as much as they were Bush.

Thomas was banged up though out the season and that’s when the door opened a bit for Bush. Weeks 13-16 Bush ran wild and totaled 519 yards rushing including his monster game against the Buffalo Bills. Those yardage numbers were almost equal his season total through twelve games. So was the finish to Bush’s season in 2011 an aberration or can it carry over to 2012?

Even though Miami has a new coaching staff, it has serious holes offensively. A rookie quarterback and a depleted receiving group will force Miami to run the football as much as last season. The fact remains to be seen though if Miami will give more carries to Daniel Thomas over Bush. Thomas is more of the prototypical back and had success as a rookie last season.

Bush will see his carries head backward from the twenty carries a game he received weeks thirteen through sixteen. Miami also drafted rookie running back Lamar Miller in the fourth round. He should not pose a threat to either Thomas or Bush. It’s more of a pick to secure the backfield due to Thomas’s injury history and Bush’s size.

I would not consider Bush as a weekly fantasy starter. He can be a RB3 with possible starts based on Miami’s consistency with Bush. The question for Bush owners should be how many fantasy points can they expect from Bush with around twelve carries a game. That is what he averaged the first eleven games of 2011. Thomas will figure to get near fifteen carries a game.

This is what makes it tricky for Bush owners, because Bush can be treated like a hot jump shooter in professional basketball. Once on the field, if his first five to seven carries are explosive and getting the offense going, Miami will likely feed him an extra amount of carries over Thomas. If he is not getting the necessary yards than Miami will pound it with Thomas.

It’s an unusual circumstance that does not occur with most backs around the NFL. Bush should average six to eight fantasy points per game in standard leagues, and ten to twelve in PPR leagues. Expect around 750 yards rushing and five touchdowns on the year.

Player Profile: Robert Turbin

Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

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It’s been quite some time since a rookie running back had a true fantasy impact in year one. Last season many were expecting Mark Ingram to be just that as a New Orleans Saint. Instead the tandem system and Ingram’s ineffectiveness lessened his work load as the season progressed. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are both more fantasy friendly than Ingram.

The rookie that stirred a frenzy off the waiver wire last season was DeMarco Murray. He burst onto the scene because of opportunity and now is a top tier fantasy back. It all opened up for Murray because of injuries in front of him, and the fact the Cowboys had let Marion Barber and Tashard Choice go.

Who will it be this year that surprises? It may not be for a significant amount of games like Murray, but Seattle’s rookie Robert Turbin is already on many fantasy radar watch lists after his preseason. With the Seahawks letting workmanlike beast Marshawn Lynch rest in the preseason, Turbin has received the majority of carries and looked impressive.

The fourth round pick out of Utah State might be the most physically imposing running back in the NFL already. His physique particularly in his arms are comparable to former Arizona Cardinal/Tampa Bay running back Michael Pittman. Statistically Turbin has been solid from game one in the preseason, and last week against Kansas City he had over 90 yards rushing.

Pete Carroll sort of shares the same values as Mike Shanahan. If you’re producing he is not afraid to make a move. No matter the salary of the player that is supposed to have that position. It creates a continual reevaluation of roster positions even during the season.

Drafting in your fantasy leagues, Robert Turbin was already an automatic handcuff for Marshawn Lynch. A year ago Lynch received the majority of carries as the Seahawks did not have a back behind him capable of handling duties. That will change with Turbin, who should get five to seven carries a game to spell Lynch.

This could boost Lynch’s fantasy impact. He will be fresher over the course of the season and not overworked as he was a year ago.

Lynch has missed preseason action with a back injury that Seattle has said is minor. In fact Lynch has practiced in the majority of Seahawks practices. An area everyone knows Lynch is on a short leash is his off the field issues. It was one of the main reasons why Buffalo decided to let him go, and he has already had a few issues as a Seahawk. One more offense and a suspension or upper management move could come.

The style that Lynch runs with is not one of longevity for a running back. If Turbin was not handcuffed by Marshawn Lynch owners and you have roster spots to tinker with, pick up Turbin and sit him on your bench.

Bench players do not necessarily always have to be integral weekly parts of your fantasy team. If you are overloaded it just makes decisions harder on Sundays when you’re trying to fulfill your starters. Bench points you see can be frustrating and cause you a loss from the wrong insertion. So it’s always good to have a player or two with upside that won’t cause you headaches weekly.

Wilson’s Job Now?

Saturday, 25 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The decision of Pete Carroll to pursue to move forward with Russell Wilson versus giving their free agent signing Matt Flynn a chance, can be read in an article from a few days ago. At any rate, Friday, the Seahawks started Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn sat in street clothes. He was listed as out due to an injury, but who really knows the story behind the story.

The pressure was on Wilson to deliver on Friday and he did just that. Seattle blew out Kansas City and Wilson had a major part in that. He led multiple scoring drives and did every thing you would expect from a starter and more. The Arizona Cardinals sure wish they would of spent one of their picks on Wilson.

After two great games as a starter Matt Flynn got a mega contract from the Seattle Seahawks. Now after a preseason start, and a few good quarters against teams backups, it appears that the Seahawks are prepared to hand over the starting job to the rookie Wilson.

Seattle has not even parted ways with last years incumbent starter Tavaris Jackson. The move they are about to make for Flynn could backfire if the move was premature. Flynn is not a veteran of any sort, that can be moved in and out of the starting lineup without worry. He is still young and inexperienced. A move to the bench will definitely lower his confidence and probably get him to over think in all types of areas related to quarterback.

With a late rise in Wilson, many people are going to suggest picking him as a late round fantasy sleeper. Lets hold off on that. His flashes have been glimpses in the preseason. Added up they are hardly over a full games worth of solid play. If named starter he is going to need to string together a couple of good games before fantasy consideration. In deeper leagues obviously you may want to make that move now, and make the cut later for a waiver wire pickup if it does not pan out.

Pete Carroll’s demeanor seems to have been on Wilson’s side from the get go. Once Wilson was drafted he hinted at a quarterback battle, which was confirmed upon training camp. During the preseason he has looked like a college coach when Wilson has delivered an unordinary play. By showing excitement with the rest of the sideline and his body language as a whole.

I’d hate to be in Matt Flynn’s shoes right now. If Wilson is the right guy, hopefully they will trade Flynn and let him have another shot elsewhere. There are plenty of teams that are still in need of a young starting quarterback.

Cardinals Rookie Having Rough Preseason

Friday, 24 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The preseason is mainly a gauge for the team to analyze depth and workout kinks on the offense and defensive side of the football. While holes filled in special teams and proper depth position is an annual routine, there is another area coaches are looking to develop. Drafted rookies usually get a high percentage of looks and opportunities. Confidence in the preseason from rookies often will carry over to the regular season.

Cardinals rookie wide receiver Michael Floyd is not necessarily lighting up the statistics. In the hall of fame game he caught one ball for fifteen yards, followed up by week one of the preseason with a catch for three yards, zero catches week two, and last night two catches for sixteen yards. Fellow rookies, Kendall Wright and Justin Blackmon on the other hand have had high success and look much more ready to have a fantasy impact out the gate.

Fantasy owners are having a hard enough time figuring out where to rank Larry Fitzgerald in standard drafts, and how much to bid on him in auction drafts. Fitz has put up statistics though throughout his career with Max Hall, Matt Leinart, and both Skelton and Kolb. His statistics actually jumped with Skelton over Kolb last season, but both will get him the football.

A bright side to the fact that Floyd has had dismal preseason numbers is a breakdown of the Cardinals embarrassing quarterback battle. Before Kolb’s performance last night, neither Skelton or Kolb had thrown over the mid 30’s for yardage in the preseason. That’s correct, and this is coming from two guys competing for a starting job. You might not find another team in the NFL that’s had these type of preseason performances just with their backup quarterbacks.

There were some good things pointed out by the ESPN crew on what the Cardinals can do to move forward with the offense. Kevin Kolb is use to the quick pace from when he was in Houston. When Arizona used the hurry up offense he seemed to have a better grasp of the offense, and the team as a whole responded better. It may be just what he needs to get out of the funk he is in.

The Cardinals are going to have to announce the starter here in the next three to five days. Skelton was the favorite going into week three’s preseason game, but Kolb did outperform him Thursday. This could be a hot potato affair which Cardinals fans have become accustomed to since the Kurt Warner days.

That spells trouble for rookie Michael Floyd. If the Cardinals have any success offensively it will likely come through the ground attack. Touchdowns thrown through the air will be gobbled up by Larry Fitzgerald. Expecting either Kolb or Skelton to throw over twenty touchdowns even with sixteen games as a starter would be exceeding expectations.

Those hoping for Floyd to be a rookie sleeper better look the other way at Kendall Wright and Justin Blackmon. Floyd will have the worst numbers of the three, and should not be on any fantasy roster this season. Larry Fitzgerald is the only one worth eyeing, unless Kevin Kolb shows back to back games like his three games in Philadelphia than. Rookies like Floyd may scatter and tease you with a game or two here and there. The inconsistencies and headaches of knowing when that will occur will drive an owner crazy. Spare yourself.

Carroll Close to Hot Seat

Wednesday, 22 August, 2012

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Seattle fans are as passionate as they come. Hardly televised on a national stage, but when they are the 12th man is truly showcased. No other team in the NFL can get the rise of their crowd as the Seahawks do. Maybe it’s because they lost an NBA team and don’t want any possible threat of an owner wanting to relocate.

In a different market though, you better believe fans would be much more vocal on decisions made under the eye of Pete Carroll. The latest moves at quarterback could cause enough destruction this season to force Carroll out.

Gambling as a head coach is reasonable, but Carroll keeps close ties to his past with former players. Seattle continues to have low talent on the offensive side of the football especially at wide receiver. For a couple of seasons Carroll rooted for the comeback of bust Mike Williams.

Williams started in 2010 when he had no business doing so. You could not of found another NFL team willing to take a shot at Williams, let alone have him with the first team. His season in 2010 was better than expected but his catches came mainly due to his size at 6’5. He had zero ability to separate from the defender, and just was not a receiver that should have been on the field.

This off-season Carroll brought in two veterans that have hit the tail ends of their careers, in Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens. Owens could not even get phone calls from any teams for months on months. It’s a low risk investment sure, but why not sign the proper free agents or seek young talent in the NFL Draft?

Sidney Rice has not been the same since his breakout year with Brett Favre, and Golden Tate was a 50/50 talent as a second round pick. Their top receiver a year ago was undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin. The hot potato manuevering with Carroll has been all over the place with this team offensively. Carroll and his coaching staff need to come together with a plan and move forward properly.

What’s going on with the carousel at quarterback is just ridiculous. First the Seahawks brought in Tavaris Jackson for four million a year at a two year contract tenure. Not a bad move considering the Seahawks did not have much to work with a year ago after losing Matt Hasselbeck. Jackson was more of a knee jerk signing to ensure a starter post lockout.

Were I disagree with the treatment of Jackson is their denying him of an opportunity in preseason to prove himself. If you do not want him apart of the quarterback competition, trade or release him before hand. A player getting paid four million a year should not be sidelined during preseason games.

Short tenured contracts seems to be the way Seattle likes to go. Signing Matt Flynn to a three year 26 million dollar contract. Only ten million is guaranteed so the Seahawks would not be on the hook like say the Arizona Cardinals with Kevin Kolb. Money management with their quarterbacks is not the issue, it’s the handling of playing time.

Rookies just do not come in and start. Sure the last couple of seasons has bucked that trend, but the fact that Seattle wants to put in Russell Wilson to start a preseason game is stupefying. Flynn has not been stellar but deserves the opportunity to play based on the contract and research the Seahawks signed him on. All you’re doing is rattling the confidence and brewing controversy even if the team names Flynn starter after Wilson’s start Friday.

 

Wilson may be the eventual starter for the Seahawks, but Carroll is jumping the gun once again just like his quick free agent signings. This should not even of been a quarterback battle. When have you ever heard of a quarterback just signed for over eight million a year, having to deal with a quarterback controversy as soon as the NFL Draft was concluded?

Never Pete…..never.

Experimenting with signings such as LenDale White can’t happen anymore. Stick to certain players and build forward not backward.

New Wave of QBS, That Will Carry Fantasy Teams

Monday, 20 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The new wave of quarterbacks is as rapid as ever. Notjustagame breaks down the top ten quarterbacks that are either in their rookie season or upcoming second season. From a fantasy standpoint these are the quarterbacks of the future for your keeper dynasty leagues. Of this crop of quarterbacks who will end up being the Cade McNown, Akili Smith’s, or Tim Couch’s?

Just like in the NFL, fantasy football is a win now mentality. Here is who will reign in their class of quarterbacks in 2012.

 

1. Cam Newton- Newton is a top fantasy quarterback let alone in a class of first and second year quarterbacks. Questions regarding his pocket presence and ability to read pro defenses were squashed quickly last year. Let downs do not happen after a year like Newton had last year. He should only improve and get better.

2. Andrew Luck- The hype of Luck being the best quarterback to come out since John Elway is going to surpass Tim Tebow’s daily ten minute media segment. I’ll take that. Luck is actually performing well to garner proper attention.

3. Andy Dalton- Dalton has one of the top young playmaking receivers in the league in AJ Green, and a solid tight end in Jermaine Gresham. He is not going to light it up every week, but Dalton has quarterback smarts. He won’t kill you repeatedly with turnovers and makes just enough plays to have solid fantasy value. For this year he sits in the top three, but there are rookies from this class that will likely pass him soon.

4. Robert Griffin III- RG3 is going to get the love of the NFC East division this year. The NY Giants, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles have solid defenses with well known pass rushers. Welcome to the NFL.

5. Blaine Gabbert- Before the preseason, you probably would not of found many fantasy football leagues were Gabbert even was drafted. The stock meter on Gabbert has changed to the watch list. Deservedly so as he looks like a transformed quarterback. Keeper league value and fantasy backup value are suddenly tied with Gabbert’s name.

6. Brandon Weeden- Weeden comes in being drafted by the Browns with expectations of starting from day one. That’s true support from a franchise that could of signed a free agent veteran instead. Weeden is a big quarterback that should play more like his age instead of his amount of time in the NFL.

7. Jake Locker- Like a pitcher in the MLB or an NBA D-League call up that gets an opportunity, good things tend to happen with an opportunity suddenly. Last year Locker had semi success filling in for an injured Hasselbeck. With the pitchers and D-league call ups, the rise usually comes down fairly quickly once teams can scout and realize your weaknesses. Locker is going to experience that this season and will struggle like a rookie in his second season.

8. Christian Ponder- Ponder sure hopes that AP will not be rushed back and is healthy. If not Ponder not only will have one of the bottom ten receiver sets but also one of the worst backfields. Not a combination you want to have as a second year quarterback. The elusiveness he showcased last year will change rather quickly if he starts taking a beating.

9. Ryan Tannehill- He has the familiarity with the offensive system but Tannehill is going to struggle the most of anyone. His fantasy value is about as high as Kevin Kolb right now.

10. Russell Wilson- One thing about head coach Pete Carrol, he is not afraid to make changes. With the way Russell has performed this situation could turn very similar to the Arizona Cardinals. Though Seattle paid a hefty price for Flynn, Wilson could find his way onto the field sooner than later.