Weekly Analysis

Grading New Tight Ends in New Places

Monday, 5 August, 2013

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The spike and rise of offenses in the NFL involving their tight ends as focal points has seen a large shift of use over the past few years. We know about the Jimmy Graham’s, Rob Gronkowski’s, Jason Witten’s, and Tony Gonzalez’s of the first tier automatics. One can argue that as teams have platooned out their running backfields the same has happened at tight end.

Teams have an arsenal at their disposal when it comes to a tight end, and they can use them for an array of situations. The big down playmaker tight end is there, along with the short yardage tight end that can block for pass protection. Mixing the two together forms that added advantage to an offense. While the scale of high fantasy numbers won’t come close to the yardage and touchdowns of the first tier tight ends, you can land yourself a solid six to twelve fantasy points with the depth that is now at the entire tight end position in football.

There were plenty of moves in offseason at tight end and though none are expected to fly off the board in your drafts, drafting an appropriate tight end can be all the difference in squeezing out a win or a loss.

1. Jared Cook
Cook has always had the skill set that’s impressed people. For Cook though I believe it was more of an situational issue with the Tennessee Titans. The Titans offense never found itself with poor play from Jake Locker and CJ2K’s decline. Reuniting with Jeff Fisher and an offense that has weapons should put Cook in a decent TE2 with a possibility of spot starts.

2. Dustin Keller-
Miami did a lot of investing on the defensive side of the football and with Mike Wallace’s contract. Tannehill will have a safety net with Keller, but will Tannehill have enough time to throw the football with a revamped offensive line? Keller did enough as a Jet with the worst quarterback in Mark Sanchez, so that’s why I rank him second of new tight ends in new places.

3. Delanie Walker-
If Vernon Davis had went down to injury at any point, Walker would have been a fine fill in. A lot of Walker’s success came with Alex Smith, who had issues targeting and finding a number one wide receiver as a 49er. That was partly due to the toned down pass plays the 49ers had in place for Smith. Walker possibly fed off of Davis more than anything. Landing in Tennessee could be a big problem for Walker if Locker does not show any advancements on the field.

4. Martellus Bennett-
Bennett looks like a great signing but I’m going to categorize him as a one year wonder for now. He had opportunities his entire career, and finally had a break through as a New York Giant a year ago. I believe teams did not see Bennett as a threat and that’s how he snuck back on the fantasy radar a year ago. Chicago has an offensive minded coach now, and if Bennett struggles I would not be surprised for him to see limited snaps.

5. Brandon Myers-
I may have Myers rated too low in this ranking out of anybody listed so far. In actuality the difference statistically from Cook to Myers thus far should not be much of a difference between a tenth and twelth round pick. Myers shined last year as Raider, which was a team that produced for fantasy owners late in games when behind. As a Giant, Myers automatically steps in to a great situation.

6. Kellen Winslow Jr-
This is the last hooray for Winslow to showcase whatever he has left. His years as a Cleveland Brown seem far distant, before he washed out as a Buccaneer. The Jets are going to give him every opportunity to produce again. If he has came back to full health, Winslow Jr could be a backup tight end in deeper fantasy leagues.
7. Anthony Fasano-
Fasano is on the far backside of his tight end career. But over the years Andy Reid has always been one to have an off balance when it comes to percentages of the run game to pass game. Kansas City is expected to be balanced with Alex Smith and a quarterback friendly game plan. That alone could give Fasano a breakout game or two during 2013. His value is not worth drafting at this time.

8. Visanthe Shiancoe-
This was an emergency veteran signing by the Baltimore Ravens when their young stud Dennis Pitta went down. Schiancoe was non-existent on the fantasy radar last season because he did absolutely nothing. A resurrection at age 33 would be a huge shock. Baltimore signed him for a reason though, and New England has been a destination that has limited careers before. Two years ago in his last season as a Viking, Schiancoe had just 400 yards receiving with and just a few scores. One highlight for Schiancoe is that Joe Flacco loves to get the ball to his tight ends.

Which Second Year Starting Quarterback Will Regress?

Saturday, 3 August, 2013

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Last years success by rookie quarterbacks was at a pinnacle of achievement compared to years past success. Ben Roethlisberger and some other quarterbacks have had success but not to the extent that Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 did in the same year. You can add Colin Kaepernick into that same discussion even though he was drafted a year earlier.

Defenses and NFL coaching staffs as a whole are all about adjusting to new looks. Advanced scouting sooner or later catches up to athletes. Just ask Mike Vick and the mini-success of the wildcat offense.

Of those five quarterbacks three will likely come down to Earth just a little bit, or experience more woes than they are accustomed to based on their success last season. All five can just ask Cam Newton how quick NFL defenses can adjust from year to year.

My suggestion is to not bank on any of the five from being your no questions asked number one fantasy football starter from day one in 2013.

Ranked from highest to lowest in order I believe they’ll finish statistically, with current value factored in as well

1. Andrew Luck
Luck made rookie mistakes mentally last year with his arm, but he had the best quarter to quarter progression of any of the rookie quarterbacks last year. The Colts never really held him down with play call management, and you would expect the Colts to compliment him a bit more with the running game this season.

2. RG3
There is a lot to be seen from RG3 from a health standpoint once he takes the field. Nowadays though a young athlete that trains at maximum capacity for rehabilitation you can’t expect the old adage, “it takes two years” to come back to full strength. Athletes are defeating science more and more and defeating that old adage. RG3 has already proven before at Baylor that a serious knee injury will not hurt his psyche. He understands the ins and outs of the game of football. With a quiet confidence amongst his head coach, Mike Shanahan, the two should develop nicely in year two

3. Ryan Tannehill
This is a surprise for most to see Tannehill sitting in the middle of the pack of the second year quarterbacks (besides Kap). Unlike the other four quarterbacks, Tannehill was held in check for the most part by the play calling of the Dolphins. They utilized their whole tandem of running backs, and game managed Tannehill. Expect Coach Philbin to trust his quarterback even more in year two. I honestly believe Tannehill was ready for more advanced play calling last season. These two have a history dating back to Tannehill’s college days. Miami might shock some people this year in the AFC East.

4. Russ Wilson
Wilson had the Tim Tebow factor as a rookie last season, in which he just found a way to win certain games. The Seahawks never appeared completely out of the game no matter what the circumstances were. Yet, I never became fully impressed with Wilson until the playoffs last year. In the regular season his quarterback play was erratic at times, and overvalued. Seattle has a great team overall and I think that bolsters Wilson’s presence on the team. An injury to big play receiver Percy Harvin does not bode well for Wilson either. I expect the competitive pressure from the rest of the division to hurt Wilson’s play as the season stretches beyond September.

5. Colin Kaepernick
He might prove me completely wrong, but I just do not like the sample size of Kaepernick’s games from a season ago. A full season of how he played and I’d be sky high on him like everyone else. His playoff performances were astounding as well, but the bulk of his success come on the read option. Defenses will figure that out to a better degree than the tactic the Ravens used in hitting Kaepernick. Speed has always been taken away from great running quarterbacks at some point (Vick, Newton, etc). Especially when it comes to the amount of volume break away runs over the course of a game. Kaepernick is going to need to do more with his arm than his legs in his second year as starter. I do not believe from a fantasy standpoint and his current projections that he will be able to live up to that billing.

Post Week Three Waiver Wire

Tuesday, 25 September, 2012

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It was a catch by Golden Tate, just watch the replay.

What a way to lose a game, lets hope that you’re not a fantasy owner that is challenging the extra nine points Golden Tate received because of that. Dive in to this weeks waiver wire selections.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton-
There is no ignoring Dalton’s accuracy. Last year the Bengals ran the football a heavy amount and Dalton’s play was more about wins than flash of stats. Cincinnati realizes they have a dynamic duo in Dalton and AJ Green. Until teams figure out how to stop AJ Green, Dalton’s fantasy value as a quarterback hovers around the mid teens.

Running Backs

Tashard Choice-
The Bills injury woes continue at least temporarily. After a rough first week, the Bills have turned things around to go 2-1. In large part to each of their three running backs being able to step in without a problem. Choice has been able to fill in as a Cowboy in years past, and will likely get the next game or two of a higher amount of carries. Fred Jackson is expected to get some snaps this week, and Spiller may only miss one game.

Andre Brown-
Tom Coughlin is not one to shy away from making a decision when necessary. Andre Brown has proven to be a back that deserves to get a fair share of carries. Even when Ahmad Bradshaw returns, Brown figures to have an impact role in the Giants backfield. The fact that Brown was available in over 35 percent of Yahoo leagues before week three is shocking.

Lamar Miller-
The Dolphins dodged a bullet with Reggie Bush’s knee injury not being as serious as it looked. Either way both Bush and Daniel Thomas have shown that they are injury prone. Miller has quietly been getting a few carries each game. Miami plans on keeping Tannehill as comfortable as possible. Running the football is the best way to make that happen.

Alex Green-
Cedric Benson just is not getting it done for Green Bay. The offense is suffering because of it, and a move will need to be done soon to get the running game boosted. Green Bay is beginning to see why many teams passed on Benson originally. Green could be the fantasy running back pickup similar to James Starks was for Green Bay a few years back.

Mikel LeShoure-
LeShoure came in right off the bat and had twenty six carries for 100 yards. It was a bit of a surprise to see LeShoure get that much action, as Kevin Smith was doing a suitable job. Most anticipated a split load as the best scenario for LeShoure. Based on Sunday, it’s clear that Detroit believes LeShoure is their guy to handle the load 100 percent.

Wide Receivers

TY Hilton
With Austin Collie officially declared out with a knee injury, Hilton gets the full opportunity to get much more on field snaps. Reggie Wayne has shown zero signs of declining, but Donnie Avery is a questionable number two. Hilton had a big week last week, and as a young emerging talent could mesh very well with rookie Andrew Luck

Chaz Schilens
It’s been quite awhile since Schilens has done much of anything on the football field, as injuries have threatened his career. New York has stuck with him and they’re in dire need of a receiver to step up besides Santonio Holmes. Stephen Hill is not ready to take on that type of role. With Schilens now getting some reps on the field, he’ll have a chance to be the tall speed receiver Sanchez can target. Sunday versus Miami he should have had a touchdown catch, that was thrown off a tad by Sanchez.

Post Week Two Waiver Wire

Tuesday, 18 September, 2012

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Has the fat lady begun singing for your fantasy team(s)? Did you over indulge in drafts with your buddies and plan on exiting by dodging logging in to a certain league? That’s not the way to participate in a fantasy league. Fight every week by making the proper moves via the waiver wire and necessary roster adjustments. Here is a look at week two’s waiver wire pickups.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco-
Flacco is dazzling to start the year. Even in a loss he outdid Mike Vick by a large margin, and had a touchdown called back on an offensive pass interference that shouldn’t have been. I listed Flacco as the top breakout quarterback performer this year, and still believe he will continue to perform strongly. He has the faith of his organization that has finally translated into pass play calls. With the weapons around him and his increased confidence Flacco may be on his way to the Pro Bowl.

Sam Bradford
Last year Bradford looked like he might be headed for doom with constant injuries. The change to head coach Jeff Fisher seems to be what the doctor ordered. He has his health back and the team seems to be responding much better with the overall change. Remember just a few years ago Bradford had the Rams in a battle to almost get the last spot in the playoffs over Seattle. Seattle snuck in and made history by defeating the Saints, but it’s not a far stretch to see Bradford resurge and turn things back around.

Andy Dalton
By no means is Dalton to be considered a fantasy starting quarterback. He has a ways to go to get there, and the offense the Bengals run will likely prevent him from being a major fantasy threat. His strengths are with his accuracy, and natural chemistry with his team of receivers. By next year Dalton will be beyond a sleeper for many draftees to think about as their signal caller.

Alex Smith
Smith was on the list last week but comes back on as he is available in 50% of Yahoo leagues. The flash isn’t there but the consistency is. San Francisco seems more balanced than ever offensively, at a time when Alex Smith just is not making mistakes. It’s as if this team knows there going to be right back where they were in the NFC Championship game in January.

Ryan Tannehill
As the season stretches Tannehill may be right behind RG3 and Andrew Luck for rookie quarterbacks in terms of fantasy numbers. Russ Wilson’s impact in Seattle’s offense is going to remain on a small scale. As the team will rely on their defense and Marshawn Lynch each and every week. Tannehill just seems unrattled by whatever occurs on the football field. With the backfield weapons he has, Tannehill will be able to mature on the field and grow properly as a quarterback. His advantage for fantasy points comes with his legs as he has the capability to stretch out plays.

Running Backs

Mike Goodson-
If you’re in a PPR league Goodson has value right now. Most of the minimal owners that own Goodson are just handcuffing Darren McFadden. With the issues the Raiders are having at receiver, Carson Palmer has checked down to his running backs plenty of times in the first two games. The bonus with Goodson will be if McFadden misses anytime like he has his entire career.

Andre Brown-
Brown did a solid job filling in for the injured Ahmad Bradshaw against the Buccaneers. Who didn’t have a great fantasy day for the Giants? Brandon Jacobs had fantasy value that tapered off as his seasons dwindled with the Giants. With the Giants limiting the carries of David Wilson after his early season fumble, Brown is the guy until reassuring news unfolds for Bradshaw.

Vick Ballard-
In the Colts old coaching regime, Donald Brown had fallen on thin ice based on performance. Delone Carter was drafted and had a chance to take over Brown’s job. Now he is the one that is not in good view with the Colts coaching staff. Brown had a decent preseason but has had two poor outings to start the regular season. One more poor game and Ballard may start to get closer to the ten carry mark and turn the backfield more into an even share.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola-
There won’t be a player hotter than Amendola trying to be snared in half the leagues that he is currently available in. No one knew who would rise in the Rams receiving group, or if anyone would even be fantasy worthy. Two games in and Amendola has had a start that would make Larry Fitzgerald owners jealous. He did fumble against the Redskins that led to a defensive touchdown, but his play more than made up for that and led to the Rams gaining a victory.

Brian Hartline-
The past two years the Miami receiver that had the highest value was Brandon Marshall. With him gone everyone expected Davone Bess to continue to rise for the Dolphins. Tannehill had different thoughts, and his main target after two weeks is Brian Hartline. A big game with minimal catches is a fluke, but one with nine catches is not. Tannehill is looking his way often and will continue to do so.

Martellus Bennett
How did the Cowboys not implement Bennett all those years? Eli is obviously coming off a prolific passing day, but Bennett is a new found weapon for Eli. His size and ability to get down field have just added another deep threat weapon for the Giants passing attack. At this point if you drafted a tight end after the big five, you may want to make a change and snag Bennett.

Robert Meachem
Meachem went without a catch week two and some of you are likely puzzled on how he is on the waiver wire report. For whatever reason Rivers just has not looked his way yet. An NFL season is long though and there are still fourteen games. Rivers is likely going to be in the top ten in pass attempts this year and you have to figure Meachem will be involved sooner or later. With him being available in 25% of leagues and probably more after his week two performance, it’s a gamble worth taking for a receiver in a high impact offense.

Week Two Wonders

Monday, 17 September, 2012

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Week two had that usual dramatic appeal that we all have come to love in the NFL. The great plays, hits, and fourth quarter play. Fired up coaches and players, and the comical replacement referees. There were not too many prolific individual performers that jump out on a given week, but there are still some that played way above what their season weekly average will be.

Quarterbacks

Brandon Weeden
Talk about a reversal for Weeden. He looked like he might take a full season to properly adjust to the NFL. Kind of like what use to be the trend for a rookie quarterback. All it takes is a solid running game for a rookie or veteran for that matter to be relaxed. As long as Trent Richardson is able to rush the football like he did Sunday, Weeden will feel less pressure but his issues with turnovers are not going to disappear completely. Cincinnati’s pass defense has a ways to go. Weeden will be tested all year vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Steelers, and plethora of other tough defenses.

Matt Cassel
And the winner for garbage fantasy points of the week goes to……Matt Cassel. With the Chiefs down 35-3 in the fourth quarter, Cassel came out firing like the Chiefs were down by a field goal. He hit Dwayne Bowe for two touchdowns and ended up eclipsing the three hundred yard mark. Cassel in the Chiefs look like they are in a world of hurting again, after starting the season with two straight blowout losses.

Mike Vick
Vick makes this list based on his turnover rate to start the year. For how poor the Eagles have played they have managed to squeak out two victories. If those games would have been losses, Vick’s five interceptions to start the year would have been magnified by the media. He’ll calm things down and the team will adjust as whole and rally behind Vick.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller
Miami ran wild all over the Raiders defense even with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Daniel Thomas missed the game but will remain a big part of the Dolphins backfield. Reggie Bush had twenty six carries and a field day as well. This backfield is dynamic and maybe Miami can use all three backs to keep things simplified for Tannehill and allow for growth. Miller is one of those backs you can stash for a rainy day if you have the roster spots available to do so. Other than that, his fantasy point total this week will likely be his high for the season.

CJ Spiller
It’s not that CJ Spiller won’t have great value but at the rate he is doing it is in question. He is averaging a ridiculous amount per carry, because he has broken off long gainers in both games this season. His carries have not eclipsed fifteen in either game. He is definitely the leagues new home run back but will it tail off, and how will Fred Jackson affect Spiller upon his return?

Wide Receiver

Brandon Tate
Tate reappeared after being yet another forgotten receiver that has departed New England. Andy Dalton is a capable quarterback of spreading the football around, but they are not going to dazzle the league weekly with points. You’re probably looking at a team that may average in the high teens to low twenties at best. Dalton is also not going to be in the top fifteen for touchdown throws by a quarterback. That lessens the value of a receiver especially a third such as Tate.

Mike Williams
Williams makes a repeat entry into the wonders category. He just does not perform for full four quarters as a receiver should. Maybe these two touchdowns the last two weeks will turn things around, but he just does not get enough catches to make him a fantasy starter. If he isn’t scoring touchdowns he is not worth starting. Unless he scores sixteen touchdowns that just isn’t going to happen. He has had five catches this year and two for touchdowns.

Dante Rosario
All Rosario did was infuriate all the Antonio Gates owners out there. Tennessee didn’t want to cover Rosario in the red zone thinking that he can’t catch the ball or without Gates the Chargers do not have a tight end. Obviously Rosario will not repeat a three touchdown performance. Keep an eye on Gates though as the injury history is prevalent every year.

Week Two Fantasy Starters

Friday, 14 September, 2012

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Don’t get over anxious for your fantasy starters submissions. There is always that hole of a fill in spot that you’re undecided about. It comes down to the best matchups, and flex or lower tiered starters that you can get the highest point value out of. Eye the right guy. Here are some names that likely won’t dot anyones starting lineups. Be the contrarian fantasy owner and take a risk with one of your last starting fill in spots.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel
Kansas City hung in with Atlanta for two quarters before the offense sputtered and couldn’t keep pace. Kansas City has talent on offense now and Cassel is finally starting to settle in as the Chiefs quarterback. Buffalo gave up a ton of yardage against a Jets team that struggled mightily in preseason action. That trend is not goin to end this week.

Christian Ponder
The Vikings second year man does not get the notoriety that Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have. Ponder replaced McNabb a year ago and showed a knack for evading pressure and holding steady in the pocket. Both of those traits had been impossible for McNabb to do on aging legs. While the focus of this matchup is going to be shined on Andrew Luck, Ponder will be the one that steals the spotlight and outshines Luck.

Kevin Kolb
Kolb is one of those guys that can perform well when the pressure is off him. As a backup in Philadelphia he played terrific, well enough that Andy Reid almost named him starter officially over Donovan McNabb. With Skelton out for a limited time frame Kolb is the starter for at least a game. The pressures off and Kolb has nothing to lose. He can regain the Cardinals coaching staffs confidence in this one.

Josh Freeman
Freeman is many prognosticators favorites to have a bounce back year and be relevant from a fantasy perspective. Week one was a defensive battle where Freeman handled the lead and played within the stages of the game. Things will be different this week against a Giants team that is going to put up points. Freeman’s arm will be on display, and that he will hook up with Vincent Jackson quite often against a banged up Giants secondary.

Running Backs

Curtis Brinkley
This is a head scratcher at first glance from many people, as Brinkley is not known by anyone. This of course will be up to the injury update of Ryan Matthews. If Matthews does not go, than Brinkley is my breakout canidate of the week. The undrafted player out of Syracuse will get some looks, probably a higher amount than week one. Ronnie Brown just does not have anything left. Brinkley will get ten plus fantasy points this weekend.

Kendall Hunter
Hunter had an impressive nine rushes week one. The 49ers want to secure their health throughout this season and into the post season. In order to do that Hunter’s involvement is only going to rise. Veteran running backs such as Gore face all types of minor injuries as the season goes on. Hunter is going to rise up running back weeks every week. In a game where there will likely be points put up by both teams, you have to figure Hunter can get in on the action. Expect a solid eight to ten fantasy points from Hunter. Solid numbers in deep leagues if you’re looking at a flex option.

DeAngelo Williams
Carolina abandoned the rushing attack early after no success against Tampa Bay. Cam Newton sometimes is more of a threat on a weekly basis out of the backfield than any one on the Carolina roster. Week one Newton and the offense struggled for obvious reasons. The balance of playcalls was horrible. They’ll go back to the basics and get the running game its proper amount of play call selections.

Jonathan Dwyer
Pittsburgh is unsettled on who to give their carries too. It will be a split carry load until one of the backs stands out. Dwyer seems like the back that can do the most with the football over Isaac Redman. All it takes is that one game for an unsure backfield to be overtaken. In a prime time game against the Jets the Steelers will look to run, run, and run the football more to control the clock. They did a very good job of controlling the clock against the Denver Broncos, but were out done by a Peyton Manning with a chip on his shoulder.

Wide Receivers

Kevin Ogletree
This one is really going to get all the Ogletree waiver wire owners drooling and hyping up his trade bait. Seattle’s defense is typically good, but an area they struggled against the Cardinals was covering the third receiver. Cardinals receiver Andre Roberts had several key catches including the game winning touchdown. Tony Romo is a considerable upgrade over Skelton or Kolb. When Romo gets a connection developed it continues. Miles Austin came out of nowhere a few years back and so did Laurent Robinson last year.

Jared Cook
San Diego’s secondary was either impressive or Carson Palmer has lost it completely. After minimal starts as a rookie Tennessee will keep things simple for Jake Locker. A young quarterbacks best friend is always at tight end. Cook has the skillset to have a strong year, and in this game against San Diego don’t be shocked to see him have more fantasy points than Antonio Gates.

Brandon LaFell
Teams are geared up to do everything they can to force Cam Newton into discomfort. It’s going to be hard to do on a weekly basis, but division rivals saw Newton twice last year. Tampa Bay made sure the third time was difficult last week. New Orleans gets their third shot as well. You’d expect them to be ready to shutdown Steve Smith better than any other team, as Smith had two of his seven total touchdowns on the Saints a year ago. LaFell is a breakout game away from being considered a top thirty to thirty five fantasy receiver.

Sidney Rice
By no means will Seattle be in this game vs the Cowboys. In fact I expect it to be the ugliest game of the weekend. Ugly blowouts do not eliminate fantasy value from a team, especially at wide receiver. Rice seems to finally be healthy and displayed impressive routes week one against the Cardinals. As the game gets uglier look for Rice to rack up the most garbage fantasy points of the weekend.