Weekly Analysis

De-Commit From Jones

Saturday, 24 August, 2013

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It’s a troubling sign when you’re rotating NFL teams with more velocity than Peyton Manning’s football throws over twenty yards. Felix Jones is a name but does he fill a need for Pittsburgh? He is on his third team in less than a season now, and obviously did not show enough for Philadelphia to consider him worth keeping. They traded him away to Pittsburgh for a former undrafted linebacker.

Pittsburgh is not sure how to handle the current injury to Le’Veon Bell so they insured themselves just in case. With a backfield that already consists of LaRod Stephens-Howling, Isaac Redman, and Jonathan Dwyer, the move is a bit peculiar.

This automatically negates one of the three running backs, and I believe that to be Isaac Redman. I wrote an article just a few days ago on the Steelers running back situation, and believed Redman was the odd man out amongst the three then. With four to worry about now, Redman is downgraded even more.

As far as Jones being a sleeper and taking on a big role for the Steelers, I do not believe that will happen. Jones has struggled through a vast amount of injuries after showing promise as an speed back a few years ago in Dallas. The job as a starter in Dallas did not last long as DeMarco Murray ran away with the job, and proved to be much more effective.

Jones proved the notion that a smaller back has a tough time taken on the heavy-duty role. Games that he had carries above ten he struggled and was ineffective. His yards per carry dwindled and his injury-risk skied as he was not durable. But when you lessen the amount of carries he receives to be between five and eight, he can produce heavy damage. He is that change of pace back that is a true home run threat when the burden is not solely on him.

With Demarco Murray’s injury woes last season the Cowboys began to lean more and more on other backs, instead of Jones, relegating Jones to a third running back. Dallas made it clear when they drafted former Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle that they were not pleased with Jones run efficiency nor his 3.6 yards per carry last season.

His role in Philadelphia would have been third back behind McCoy and Brown, and will be his role as a Steeler. Pittsburgh must quietly have concerns on LaRod Stephens-Howling’s health. He did miss week two’s preseason game and has missed practice this week with a strained knee.

Pittsburgh can ill-afford to rely on the tandem of Dwyer/Redman as they did last year. I doubt Jones will get a significant amount of carries for Pittsburgh. Opportunity does have a weird way of knocking on someone’s door. Jones may get that in Pittsburgh where injuries have become prevalent and the need for someone to step up is there. The max I would expect from Jones is a game or two in which he is the primary ball carrier. Something we have seen in Dallas just as recent as last year, in which he still showed no fantasy value.

This signing should have no fantasy committal value. Take a wait and see approach before you consider a roster move for Jones, even in PPR leagues.

Auction Draft Strategies

Friday, 23 August, 2013

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There is no secret fantasy football has taken off exponentially over the last several years. For those of you that just became interested over the last three to four years, you probably have done standard leagues for the most part. More than likely you’ve been approached a few different times to partake in an auction league. If you said yes this year here are some basic tips for success.

Back in the day even before standard draft leagues, leagues that use to be popular were salary cap leagues. They’re still around, but dwindling down to fantasy football extinction (head2head.com still is very popular) but smallworld, sandlot, and others around years ago have fallen of the earth. I, myself have not done a salary cap league in over five years. The basis of a salary cap league is kind of how an auction league is based. Salary cap leagues would give you an X amount of dollars (salary cap) and each player would be given a dollar value based on his skill set.

So back in the day in a $200 salary cap league, high stars were likely in the 50 to 65 dollar range. Fantasy league roster spots were similar to today and salaries will shift throughout the season. The fun of it was that you could gain dollars if you bought an athlete low, and use that to bolster your roster. I’d say if you have not done one of these leagues and want to join one this year head to sportingnews.com. They probably have one of the best free salary cap leagues around.

What really has taken over the dollar strategy leagues is auction leagues. People like to have self control and auction leagues put you in that position off the bat, just like standard draft leagues. I’m sure after three or four years being in a standard draft, you’ve seen a mistake or two from someone inexperienced in a fantasy football draft.

That laughter you had then, and mistake pick you capitalized off of might be staring at you for your first auction draft.

Here are four basic tips to have success in your auction league

You Have Money, Spend It. Don’t Be That Guy/Gal
Your given an X amount of dollars to spend. When it’s all said and done you typically do not want to have dollars left over. If you do, you were over cautious and missed out on depth and better profile players. At the end, if you’re the one buying consecutively you know you did something wrong. Just because you have the most amount left and can outbid everyone, means nothing because you didn’t partake in the majority of the auction.

Let’s compare the bid wars show on A@E as an example. If you came to bid on a storage unit and waited, waited, and waited, and then the last two units shown you decided to bid on, you’re left with a limited upside and more than likely duds. Bid early with everyone else and manage your money as the draft goes.

Have a Strategy
The main purpose of an auction league is that you have full control of each and every player you can get. For the most part you should be able to control 70% of your roster outcome, especially the cream of the crop. Sure, you might have to outbid aggressively for a couple of players, but that’s the cost of having a sure-fire top notch athlete. Go in with an aggressive mindset that you’re going to get seven to ten players. You’ll be surprised how many of those athletes you end up with.
Use Common Sense
This goes hand and hand with strategy, but you need common sense when piecing together a roster. You’re the GM, and you have to surround your team with high caliber automatic high ceiling athletes, middle-tier, and value based with potential. If you lack the common sense to envision a team with prospects along with stars, than you’re in a world of hurting. You need to spread out your dollars and picture yourself as a GM taking risks and outplaying the other ten to thirteen fantasy owners in your league. Remember, these aren’t computers automating selections. Have a mind, and outthink as if you were on the poker table.
Your Team is Assembled, Now Manage It
Just like in professional sports, a draft with talent looks good on paper. Ironing out the rough spots (bye weeks, injuries, poor performance) needs to be a daily and weekly focus for you. If you end up like a NFL coach or GM that is too trustworthy of his talent, you’ll fall flat on your face. You need to be prepared to dump players that don’t perform, go for a couple of trades, and out bid league owners on certain waiver wire acquisitions. Don’t fall asleep at the wheel once your draft is over. Wake up and smell the coffee on the players that are dragging your team down. Even if you’re doing well early, there are other owners pushing to outpace you before season’s end. Outsmart them and ensure your team is not going to falter.

Underachievers in Contract Years

Friday, 23 August, 2013

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When an incentive is front of you no matter how minor it is, you’re going to strive for it. In grade school if the teacher had to pull out candy to get students to answer a question, you raised that hand. If at work you’re involved in a contest for a day off or incentive laden performance goal, you put in the extra effort to try and reach it. The NFL is no different and fantasy owners should take note of the current 2013 players that are in contract years.

These are all considered under achievers for the most part and should have money on their mind each game, instead of before the game on Friday’s when they collect a team check.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The talent has to still be there. When Freeman threw for 25 touchdowns and six interceptions he had me glowing as I had selected him in a dynasty rookie league draft. He was stashed behind Peyton Manning. So when Manning went down for 2011, I thought I was all fine and dandy with Freeman for 2011. Boy was that a rough year for my dynasty league team as Freeman threw just 16 touchdowns to go along with 22 interceptions. He recovered somewhat last year, and he is in a must-prove situation now. I’d classify Freeman as a sleeper as he has about as great a cast around him offensively as a quarterback could hope for, with Doug Martin, Mike Williams, and Vinny Jackson. Remember Doug Martin did not fully emerge for the Bucs offense until after week eight. Look for the offense to flow more running the ball first and then through the air.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
The storm has occurred via Shaun King for McFadden. King blasted McFadden’s preseason effort on air during week two of the preseason. Obvious reaction to those comments would cause high alert and alarm for fantasy draftees. Maybe he is a bit out of shape and has an injury prone history, but McFadden has shown when on the field he is one of the better backs in football. Sure he truly has only had one great season, but you can say that for other running backs including Doug Martin and Trent Richardson. McFadden is in a contract year which means he may play through a few nagging injuries this season.

Ben Tate, Houston Texans
The injury concerns of Arian Foster may have been just out played by the media. What can not be outplayed is the fact that Foster has been an old school workhorse back the last three seasons. Wear and tear has proven to rear its head and not go away to the detriment of backs like Foster. He may be a year or two away from a decline. For insurance, Houston will likely increase Tate’s carries slightly and figure out if they want to retain him as the complimentary back in 2014.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis just never seems to be able to get a grip of their running back situation since Joseph Addai hit the wall. Donald Brown was drafted and never took off, then Delone Carter who was recently traded, and last year Vick Ballard. Ballard has the keys right now. How long that will last is what gives Brown another chance to take another crack at the role. The Colts have always fluctuated in the backfield and I think that has more to do with the fact that they love to air out the football than anything else. Brown the former first round pick has shown flashes but needs to stay healthy.

Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
Injuries and non-discipline have turned Britt from a big surprise to a dud instantly. The former Rutgers receiver is who he is. A tall target that can stretch the field from time to time. Teams know what he is capable of as Britt’s offseason market value is already established. I don’t expect him to do anything abnormal with his season coming up.

James Jones, Green Bay Packers
All fantasy football owners should know that Jones touchdown totals and season as a whole were and will be his career year. Jones role in Green Bay is best suited for the third wide receiver role that can spring a few big games a season. As far as an every down receiver he probably can do it for stretches. Having the drops that he does though lowers his on the field value from a coaching standpoint and fantasy standpoint. He benefitted for stretches last season with injuries at receiver to Green Bay and may get that opportunity again.

Golden Tate, Seattle Seahawks
Tate is a Seattle guy and Seattle receiver. Can you remember the last Seattle Seahawks receiver that had significant fantasy football value? Seattle has not had a 1,000 yard receiver since Bobby Engram did it in 2007. Quite awhile, but Seattle has a team identity and does not worry about satisfying stats. Tate does his job and will only continue to be a mediocre bench fantasy producer.

Brandon LaFell, Carolina Panthers
Sooner or later you would expect LaFell to have a breakout season. It seems as if Steve Smith has been the only Carolina Panthers receiver to don the uniform with value in quite awhile. Where is Wesley Walls when you need him, so the Panthers can run double tight end formations with Greg Olsen. It sounds funny, but Carolina has failed mightily to get Smith an opposite threat. It looks like LaFell will be the latest. I do not expect him to be back in a Panther uniform. This time next year he will be fighting to make a roster in the preseason.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Indianapolis Colts
Oakland execs and the rest of the NFL new that the Raiders made a horrific high selection pick with Bey. Maybe if he would have been drafted in the third round, his mediocre seasons in Oakland would look better. Possessing speed is still his main asset. Being brought to Indianapolis to be the third receiver seems to be a better suited role for Bey. He was in a poor situation in Oakland, so maybe he can make the most of his one year as a Colt. I’d consider him as a bench fantasy receiver with a sleeper annotation. Reggie Wayne is aging, and teams know what TY Hilton is all about after his season a year ago.

Ed Dickson, Baltimore Ravens
Dickson gets likely his last shot at being a tight end number one for an entire season because of a season ending injury to Dennis Pitta. In a league that blossomed and transformed tight ends overnight, Dickson is going to have a hard time fitting GM’s new mindset on a starting tight end. He will find a role if the Ravens do not re-sign him, but it’ll be a developmental non-significant premier role. Value for this season on the other hand is promising. Stash him as your tight end two for now, and plan on using him only for a bye week or injury issues.

Fantasy Injury Worthiness: Le’Veon Bell

Friday, 23 August, 2013

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The fact that Le’Veon Bell went down to injury is noteworthy. Now that it has been classified as a mild sprain, fantasy owners can prepare for the Steelers backfield over the course of the first four to six weeks of the regular season. It’s not like owners have not seen it before. This has occurred frequently in the Pittsburgh backfield since Rashard Mendenhall went down a few years ago, and never could overtake the position last year.

Offensive worries for the Steelers should be more focused on the offensive line and protecting Big Ben. Todd Haley’s offensive play calling will be in serious question if the Steelers continue to get over ran in the trenches on the offensive line. They need to perform better as a unit or it will not matter if Tim Tebow is in the backfield for crying out loud.

Let’s pick apart the current Steelers backfield of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and LaRod Stephens-Howling on who will be the main threats for fantasy points. I do believe all will pay a vital role, as Todd Haley coordinates the offense more around a tailored power game, until the offensive line shows more cohesiveness.

Biggest Threat:
LaRod Stephens-Howling is one of those scat backs that has developed over the years as a suitable guy out of the backfield in third down situations. When injury woes last year in Arizona to Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams occurred, Howling showed that he can do more than be a situational down athlete. He had two one hundred yard rushing games last year. On a poor Cardinals offense he was still under-utilized. The Steelers saw value in him and I believe they’ll tinker with using his skills more with Bell out. Quick screens to keep the defense honest is always a key play to have. That’s not a possible play to run with Dwyer or Redman

Best Option:
Jonathan Dwyer’s break away speed and burst through the hole may be dead last in the NFL, but Dwyer is a big body that defenses have a hard time bringing down. He averaged four yards a carry last year but never really grasped a hold of the tail back position like the Steelers would have liked. Based on his preseason thus far and compared to Redman, Dwyer looks like the guy the Steelers would lean on. He needs to find his way into the end zone more to be of fantasy significance, as putting up DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart rushing yards is not going to cut it. By the Steelers drafting Bell that should have been a wake up call for Dwyer. I think he’ll respond and exceed fantasy expectations the first month of the season.

DOG HOUSE FANTASY OPTION:
Fumbleitis does not go away in the minds of head coaches. Isaac Redman may be a contracted Steeler but neither Todd Haley or Steelers Head coach Mike Tomlin is going to lean on Redman after his three fumbles on just 110 carries last season. Quite frankly the Steelers would have leaned more heavily on Dwyer if he had the versatility as an all-around back. Now that Stephens-Howling is in the fold, and barring Howling’s health, I do not believe Redman will see the field nearly as much as fantasy owners are with Bell out.

Another Gear, Speed Kills

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

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When talent evaluation occurs for NFL prospects an area of focus tends to be an athlete’s forty yard dash speed. Al Davis was notorious for heightening the speed at combine’s and over reaching for athletes in the NFL draft. He wanted speed on the field and when a match occurs with talent, it’s deadly on the football field.

For us in the fantasy sports world there are scales of receivers that have speed, but are they worth drafting? Year after year the draft occurs and some of these names may have fallen off your rememberance track. Get them back in your fantasy view.

Tavon Austin- St. Louis
In college Austin was a mismatch seemingly as soon as he stepped onto the field. Years from now people may forget the link of Austin to quarterback Geno Smith, but Austin had a lot to do with Smith’s success. St. Louis and Sam Bradford are hoping the same will translate to the NFL. His size at just 5’8, and near 180 pounds could be a cause for alarm.

Calvin Johnson- Detroit
Yes Megatron is who he is, and will appear on almost every freak list, because he is just that. He possesses the strength, speed, and leaping ability to destroy secondaries with what ever weapon he chooses to.

Travis Benjamin- Cleveland-
The second year pro had a semi-decent rookie year with the Browns adjusting to a new quarterback and running back. By bringing in Norv Turner, Benjamin could see even more of a spike in production. He is primarily a speed threat, but Turner will figure out a way for Benjamin to have a niche in his offense.

DeSean Jackson- Philadelphia Eagles
One has to wonder if at this point in Jackson’s career if he would be better suited to be a wide receiver two in the NFL. With McNabb and Vick years ago, Jackson could get away with the deep route plays against almost any corner in the league. Nowadays it’s tougher for Jackson and that diminishes his value on the football field, and hurts the offense. From a fantasy perspective, Jackson has to be looked at as a WR3, due to his unreliability on a week to week basis.

Mike Wallace- Miami Dolphins
Wallace got his payday with Miami in the off-season. Watchful contract eyes will now be on Wallace. Will the payday cause a retreat in his performance on the field, or will he catapult the young Ryan Tannehill to another level? Wallace’s average yards per catch is sky-high and will not go away. As long as Wallace does not disappear in games and can catch around 70 to 80 balls, he will be a constant in the top twenty and likely shoot closer to the top ten/twelve fantasy wide receivers.

Others With Speed, but Not Fantasy Football Worthy
Jacoby Ford- Oakland Raiders
Trindon Holiday- Denver Broncos
Darrius Heyward-Bey- Indianapolis Colts

Top 60 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings

Tuesday, 20 August, 2013

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Did you hold your fantasy draft back in June or July and now are left staring at a roster you believe to be the best possible? There can only be one hype man of your team and that’s you. By week one you may find yourself needing to upgrade. Rankings by your fantasy league via rotisserie stats are meaningless. Pay attention to weekly rankings here.

After the second week of the preseason here are where the running backs rank.

! Denotes On The Rise
^ Denotes On The Decline

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin !- Owners and soon-to-be draftees worry not. Martin did not sustain a concussion on his knee to the head in week two of the preseason.
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster ^- Foster has not let little nagging injuries in the past few seasons deter his fantasy success. One can escape a couple of times, but the injury bug is calling Foster’s name. Precautions seem to be the main reason he is missing preseason. For fantasy owners Foster is the top ten back that has the most question marks.
6. CJ Spiller
7. Ray Rice
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Alfred Morris
10. Chris Johnson
11. Trent Richardson
12. Stevan Ridley
13. Ryan Matthews
14. MJD !- MJD is quickly falling out of the top tier of fantasy backs. As we’ve seen with top fantasy backs of the past, once the fall begins, the drop descends rather quickly from fantasy relevancy.
15. Matt Forte
16. Frank Gore
17. Darren McFadden
18. David Wilson !- The Giants just have a knack for having that steady backfield. Manning’s had Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw who have all been fantasy studs at one point or another.
19. Steven Jackson
20. Lamar Miller
21. DeMarco Murray
22. Andre Brown
23. Reggie Bush
24. Chris Ivory
25. Vick Ballard
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ^- Green-Ellis’s biggest impact for fantasy owners were his mauler runs for six in the red zone. Still Ellis was an every down back that could provide chunks of yards to those plungers. Giovanni Bernard has been electric in games and in practice. Carries will be taken away from Ellis slowly but surely, and likely a higher fashion of split carries than Ellis has seen in quite awhile.
27. Darryl Richardson
28. Rashard Mendenhall
29. Darren Sproles
30. Le’Veon Bell
31. Mikel Leshoure
32. Bryce Brown !- The fast pace expected from the Eagles has to come with movement of backup players at key positions. Running back is at the top of the list as the Eagles will do all they can to protect Vick’s health.
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Eddie Lacy
35. Ronnie Hillman
36. Giovani Bernard
37. Mark Ingram
38. Shane Vereen
39. Ben Tate
40. Jonathan Stewart
41. Bernard Pierce
42. Montee Ball
43. Fred Jackson
44. Jonathan Dwyer
45. Ahmad Bradshaw
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Joseph Randle
48. Isaac Redman
49. Jacquizz Rodgers
50. Fred Helu
51. Donald Brown
52. Mike Bush
53. Mike Goodson
54. Pierre Thomas
55. Alfonso Smith
56. Joique Bell
57. Jonathan Franklin
58. Denard Robinson ^- Each year there is a new wrinkle unfolded by franchises to muster yards on the football field. Robinson’s use as a Jaguar should be one of the more curious developments in the early weeks of the season. This will not be like the Pat White experiment Miami tried. Robinson will get direct carries from the backfield as he has in the first couple weeks of preseason and at Michigan last year.
59. Knile Davis
60. Daniel Thomas