Weekly Analysis

Podcast: Olympics Semi-Finals and Finals Preview

Thursday, 18 August, 2016

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Zack Cimini and Eric Wong discuss Friday’s semi-finals in the olympics along with a potential championship matchup. Hear their takes as they debut their third podcast together.

Patriots Running Backs Produce Underlying ATS and Fantasy Value

Monday, 15 August, 2016

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The staples of the New England Patriots continue to be quarterback Tom Brady and Coach Belichick.

With the impending suspension of Brady, added pressure is on the team to produce in the month of September.

Backup quarterback Jimmy Garrapulo is the face of attention amongst the chaos.

If he exceeds expectations the automatic assumption is a quarterback controversy.

After all many years ago Tom Brady supplanted veteran Drew Bledsoe with his own cementing performances filling in.

Yet, an area of value that continues to be overlooked with New England is their success at the running back position.

In recent years, backup running backs have thrived to catapult Patriots ATS value and fantasy waiver wire success.

Lets take a look at some strong contributions of impact since 2010.

Danny Woodhead–2010
Woodhead emerged as a solid option out of the backfield hauling in thirty-four catches and nearly 900 total yards. His value changed over Brady’s career as he became more of a take what you can get quarterback versus his prior mold of down the field passer.

Stevan Ridley—2011
Ridley was drafted as a third-round pick but the Patriots still had a 1,000 yard rusher in-line with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. As the year progressed Ridley became the main back and finished as the Patriots leading rusher in four of the final five games.

Brandon Bolden—2012
Ridley continued to be the feature back in 2012 but Bolden was the hot hand for one game against the Bills. He finished with 137 yards becoming the popular fantasy waiver wire add. Things did not work out on that move but it shows again how deep the Patriots can go at running back.

LeGarrette Blount—2013
After subpar seasons in 2011 and 2012, Blount stood out to become an impact back for the Patriots. He carried over a solid regular season to an even better post-season (4 TD’s, 172 yards) becoming a catalyst to the Patriots Super Bowl run.

Jonathan Gray—2014
Nobody can ever forget Jonathan Gray. He led the Patriots in rushing yards in three consecutive games. Yet, it was an eye-popping Sunday night road performance of over 200 yards rushing that grabbed everyone’s attention. After being late to practice he went from a commodity to Belichick’s doghouse.

Dion Lewis—2015
The Patriots did it once again with scatback Dion Lewis. The hardly used fourth-year back suddenly became a staple for the Patriots. He was on his way to an outstanding season before an injury cut his season short at mid-season.

The Patriots ability to thrive at the running back position continues to be a main reason for their consistency.

Counting on unforeseen standout contributions is a pattern we can all expect to ease the pressure for Garrapulo and Brady to blossom in 2016.

Announcement: New Changes

Friday, 27 May, 2016

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From a blog stand point things have been quiet since football concluded.

Zack’s planning some summertime overhaul website changes to change over features.

Expect less blogs and more video/podcasting content.

Zack still plans on having blogs during the football season but knows his audience wants the on-demand presence of videos/audio.

Thank you all for continuing to follow and track my handicapping plays month to month

Nassib At CrossRoads to Show Backup QB Value

Monday, 17 August, 2015

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Organizations in the NFL can sometimes get away with hiding a positions depth due to an impact starter. The New York Giants have been able to do this for years as Eli Manning has been a durable quarterback. The backup quarterback role since the 2012 season has been Ryan Nassib’s out of Syracuse.

Nassib had many years under his belt as starter at Syracuse after replacing Greg Paulus in 2009. He was able to transform himself late in his junior season which carried over to a spotlight worthy senior season. When Doug Marrone landed in Buffalo, Nassib’s draft projections shot up to as high as a first round pick.

That didn’t happen but the Giants did draft him as a suitable backup for Eli Manning in the fourth round.

Each time Nassib has had brief action in preseason there has been little to write home about. He has had accuracy issues and does not seem comfortable yet with the Giants offense.

Even though the Giants did switch offenses last year, you’d expect Nassib to show a bit more of development in the pocket and take on the role a bit more as Eli’s backup.

It’s still early in the 2015 preseason but Nassib has to showcase his value a bit more in games two and three.

Eli, who is 34, is likely to get one more hefty contract offer from the Giants in the near future. That will make Nassib expendable when his contract is up as the Giants could bring in someone cheaper via the draft with a higher ceiling.

Nassib could still bounce around the NFL as a backup quarterback due to the veteran starters in the league and overall diluted backup talent throughout the league.

That’s never a goal of someone that has the tools Nassib does. It’ll be interesting to see how he finishes out this preseason and if he can finally clear that rookie hurdle and start to look like an NFL quarterback.

At this stage the Giants are unprepared if Eli were to go down for a length of time. If Nassib were thrown into a starter’s role it’d be a true disaster season.

POST WEEK FIVE WAIVER WIRE ADDITIONS

Tuesday, 7 October, 2014

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Five NFL and fantasy weeks are in the books. How many auction dollars do you have left to bid on this week’s waiver wire adds? There are some good ones to secure. Take a look at who to pickup post week five at the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver position.

Brian Hoyer
The Browns nearly came back from a large deficit week one to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. This past week they got behind again but this time were able to erase the deficit completely. Hoyer is getting the job done with Josh Gordon on suspension and a backfield that leaves a lot to be desired. Oh, and he is dealing with the media speculation of Johnny Manziel. Hoyer is getting the job done and barring health should be a solid fantasy backup quarterback.

Mike Vick
We all know a change is coming for a Jets starting quarterback, and Vick will be the guy. His reps Sunday came with the Jets already in a huge hole on the road. I won’t look much into that. I always said the Jets wanted to limit Vick’s starts to protect his health. Putting him in for a solid ten games seems to be a proper solution from New York management. Vick should be an asset and run the Jets offense appropriately.

Bishop Sankey
As bad as the Titans have looked it is probably going to get worse. As the season wanes rookie running back Bishop Sankey will surpass veteran Shonn Greene in carries per game. A few weeks ago against the Bengals Sankey showed some flashes. For some reason the Titans just don’t want to bring him on board as the feature back just yet. Pull him in as a waiver wire add before the big game comes from Sankey.

Branden Oliver
Before the flurry of owners rush to get Oliver, rest assured he will be only a short term lease. Using Oliver to snare an extra win or two can pay dividends but don’t expect him to overtake the Chargers starting job. San Diego is buried with injuries but none are expected to be the entire season. That means Danny Woodhead, Ryan Matthews, and Donald Brown will all be back in the fold sooner than later.

Ronnie Hillman
It seems like Hillman has been in Denver forever. He had a brief stretch as a starter a few seasons back that just didn’t work out. As a complimentary back he seems to have found a home. With Montee Ball out, maybe Hillman will show the maturation to explode and garner fantasy excitement.

Brandon Lloyd
How Lloyd continues to pop up as a fantasy threat is something else. Teams passed up on him and he rose to a Pro Bowl level in Denver. He bounced around after not finding a home. Now he is in San Francisco and seems to be Colin Kaepernick’s new favorite target. With Vernon Davis’s health status still in doubt, San Francisco will continue to incorporate four wide receivers sets with Lloyd, Stevie Johnson, Boldin, and Crabtree.

Odell Beckham Jr
Based on the pattern of the New York Giants finding receivers out of nowhere and bringing them to fantasy gold, Beckham should be one of the top adds in all fantasy leagues. Manning has brought fantasy worth to Larry Donnell and Beckham in a span of just five weeks. We’ll see if Beckham is the latest Giant receiver to rise to the top.

Andre Roberts
As long as Kirk Cousins is the starter it looks like he will lean more towards Roberts and DeSean Jackson. Owners of Pierre Garcon have no clue what to do with him. At this point he has to ride the pine until he has another breakout game. With as poor as the Redskins defense has looked, the Redskins will be throwing it quite often.

NFL: OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTIONS NFC NORTH

Tuesday, 26 August, 2014

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I continue on my divisional coverage of predictions for over/under win totals. Today we will focus on the NFC North. A division that has as much talent as any division in the NFL, but has fallen short of living up to it on an annual basis.

Lets see if this is the year that the Lions, Packers, and Bears thrive and give the NFC a run for their money.

Vegas Has It Right On
Green Bay
Many have Green Bay circled as one of the easy picks to topple Vegas’s set line of ten wins. They do look like a strong team but surpassing double digit wins is always a challenge. This is a division that hasn’t changed much personnel wise. All teams know each other very well. That’s a challenge in my mind to get through a division with ease. We’ve seen it for years in the NFC East, and the same can be said here. Vegas has this one right on. I can see them getting 11 wins, tying the number at ten, or falling just short at 9 wins. I wouldn’t put money on them.

Beats The Number
Detroit Lions 8 wins
Talk about a team that had some ugly losses a year ago. Detroit’s average season hit a landslide as they dropped their last four games. That finish was the writing on the wall to send former head coach Jim Schwartz packing. Now the question is can Caldwell boost the talent-laden Lions. I believe he can and that the Lions beat the number of 8 wins. All it’s going to take is true maturity from a team filled with great young players.

Falls Short
Chicago 8 wins
Throughout the Lovie Smith era this Bears team had its ups and downs. They got to the Super Bowl and had success based on a ferocious defense that had key players everywhere. The defense aged and truly hasn’t been the same in a solid three seasons. Marc Trestman is an offensive guy and will continue to thrive this year. I’m just not sold that they get it done even with vast improvement on the defensive side of the ball. They’re similar to the Cowboys. They’ll be in games and look fantastic in highlights, but when it comes to wins and losses they fall short.

Minnesota Vikings 6 wins
I’m an old Big East college football fanatic. I certainly was down on Geno Smith after watching him at West Virginia before his last season in the Big 12. Teddy Bridgewater is in my eyes going to struggle as well. He is slight of frame for an NFL quarterback and has worse accuracy issues in my estimation than Smith. Over the long haul I believe Bridgewater can become a decent starter but it’s going to take some serious growing pains. He was fortunate to play in a watered down Big East and AAC. Louisville’s upset win over Florida caused Bridgewater’s stock to rise similar to an NCAA basketball player having a great March Madness. Neither a veteran in Matt Cassel or a year one Teddy Bridgewater is capable of getting this team a combined six wins. AP of two years ago isn’t coming back anytime soon either.