Waiver Wire

Bye Week Fillers For Defense/Kickers

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Besides the common stock piling injuries the reason we draft for depth is matchups and bye week fill ins. Usually though, owners will fill their lineups in and subject themselves to wait on backup defenses and kickers. After getting that strong kicker and defense you assume to start them every single week, until you look up and see you’ve got your defense or kicker on a bye week. This week teams are Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Arizona. Assuming you have any of those teams kickers or defenses, we will help you scour the waiver wire for a one week fill in for a kicker or defense.

Defenses That Should Be Available With Solid Matchups

Houston (4% Owned in Yahoo)
The Texans are giving up points left and right, but at times will fill up the stats via their special teams and strong pass rushers. A way to get off their slump is the perfect matchup, and they have that this week against the Oakland Raiders. Jamarcus Russell’s completion percentage for a starting quarterback is likely on pace for a record low. His passing stats so far have been 12 of 30, 7 of 24, and 12 of 21. With the Texans offense putting up points rapidly it’s going to put even more pressure on Russell, as the Raiders defense has been doing a solid job keeping them in games. This is a must pickup for fantasy owners looking for a defense for a week. You’ll likely get two to three turnovers and four sacks, and possibly a defensive/or special teams touchdown.

Cincinnati (13% Owned in Yahoo)
What’s been keeping the Bengals in games isn’t the offense it has been the defense. The offense is coming around late to provide a story line but the defense is playing solid the entire game. Against the Broncos the fluke play we all have come to know cost them a 12-7 loss. The defense then caused chaos for the Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers sacking him a bunch of times. Currently the Bengals have ten sacks and that’s where the majority of their defensive fantasy points have come from. They’re only defensive interception came this past week against Ben Roethlisberger which they took back to the house. By facing the Cleveland Browns this week, who have yet to announce they’re starting quarterback, is going to be a favorable matchup. Whoever is chosen as starter between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson is going to have a ton of pressure to deliver. Since this is the umpteenth time this has been tossed back and forth between the two, it’s obvious neither has been good at handling the pressure.

Buffalo (9% owned in Yahoo)
Chad Henne will get his first start as Chad Pennington will be out for the year. Henne came in relief for Pennington in the third quarter in their game against the Chargers. He looked very uncomfortable and threw one pick that was brought back for a touchdown. A couple other throws could have been picked as well. Miami will have a methodical approach to try to prevent from Henne having to win the game. Terrell Owens and the Bills will look to put Miami down early, and get TO involved early and often after last weeks disaster. The Dolphins do not have the fire power to come back from a deficit larger than a touchdown. On paper the Bills should have no problem jumping out on Miami. This will force Henne to have to make some plays with his arm, and make for a delightful day for the Buffalo secondary. Miami’s receivers are the worst in the league, and have a very difficult time getting open. This spells trouble for Henne and will make for a year similar to 2007 for the Dolphins.

Kickers

Lawrence Tynes (60% Owned in Yahoo)

Tynes get to kick against the Chiefs who have been giving up an average of 28 points a game. A number that would likely be higher if they didn’t face the Raiders who only scored 13. Tynes has been busy thus far this season and should continue booting PATs and field goals this week.

Jay Feely (6% Owned in Yahoo)

Feely hasn’t done much so far with only five field goals. Against the New Orleans Saints the Jets are surely going to have to put up points to compete with the high power Saints. The Jets have been above average currently in the red zone which should average out and give Feely more of an opportunity to boot field goals. He is definitely worth a look at this week though.

Josh Scobee (4% Owned in Yahoo)

Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has opened up things for the Jacksonville Jaguars offensively. David Garrard seems to be delivering and has a new target in Mike Sims-Walker. Tennessee’s strong point is stopping the run and have been vulnerable through the air. Garrard will be airing it out more to test out the Titans secondary. Scobee has missed a few field goals but one was over 50 yards. Historically the Jaguars and Titans usually play each other tough. Both need this win strongly. When a team is in the red zone expect defenses to turn it up even more to prevent a touchdown. It’ll be a field goal fare for both teams.

Listen This Time

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009

by Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

There are few golden rules to attacking a fantasy football season but one of them is always, always, hand cuff your high draft pick running backs with their fill in. Yet, for some reason fantasy owners ignored that this year and decided to bank on better options for depth. That philosophy is fine and dandy to have other viable options at receiver, defense, tight end, wherever it may be. Now though we’re three weeks in and have already seen some star backs land on the sidelines for durations unknown and some that are out for weeks.

Now you’re stuck with horrible options to go with at running back when you could have had that safety net right there to plug in your starting lineup. It’s like playing blackjack and knowing the dealer is going to get it sooner or later, and when you know he/she has it you still don’t buy insurance. You better hope that you’re waiver wire position bailed you out to have a shot at Glen Coffee or LeSean McCoy this week. We’re going to take a look at a few other handcuff musts out there that fantasy owners can be proactive about.

Reason: Production

In Danger: Larry Johnson, In: Jamaal Charles
We’re trying to diagnose what’s wrong with Larry Johnson, and we think we’ve figured it out. He has Shaun Alexander/Eddie Georgeitus. He isn’t hitting the holes properly and seems like he has lost everything he had just three years ago. It truly is a young backs league and Jamaal Charles is that guy. It’s only a matter of time before Charles takes over this job. He nearly combined for 100 total yards this past week against Philadelphia with about half the touches of Johnson. Johnson has faced three solid front seven defenses and has had to deal with a quarterback not doing anything to help him out. Johnson’s production levels though have been backpedaling for years now, so that’s why we believe his slow start is not an aberration.

In Danger: Steve Slaton, In: Chris Brown
Was more of himself this past week against the Jaguars, but it seems as if Houston is going to keep a balanced time share going with Slaton and Brown. This past week Slaton had twelve carries and Brown 8, and the previous week was just as balanced. As a young back with last seasons great year in the back of his mind, you have to wonder if the pressure will or has got to him already. If so, fumbles could start to happen and that’s where the already close time share may be become dead even. Don’t forget Chris Brown is already their goal line back and was a feature back for the Tennessee Titans for many years.

In Danger: Tim Hightower, In: Beanie Wells
The Cardinals game plan against the Colts has been one of the hot topics of discussion this week. The Dolphins showed how to keep the ball out of the Manning’s hands and also exposed a horrid Colts run defense. So what did the Cardinals do? After a Tim Hightower fumble inside the Colts ten, they abandoned the running game the entire game. It resulted in Kurt Warner being on his back all game and the Colts locking down the Cardinals receivers by playing nickel defense over 50 plays in the game. With Whisenhunt calling the plays he has to be smarter than that. The Cardinals don’t know what they have in a running game because they never stick with it. Unless they want Kurt Warner out for the year which will happen if they don’t start running it more, than they’ll have to figure out which back they want to feature. Hightower never impressed us last year and has been more of a threat as a pass catching back than a runner this year. Wells on the other hand has had a high per carry average and is only owned 59 percent in Yahoo leagues. If the Cardinals are going to turn around their season it starts with Wells.

In Danger: Mike Tuner, In: Jerious Norwood
This situation is more of protection for Turner. When a back that had a season like Turner did a year ago, and now can’t average near 4 yards a carry in a game, something is wrong. Turner is feeling the ill affects of carrying the ball an enormous amount of times last season. If it weren’t for his two touchdowns were sure talks of what’s going on with Turner would have started already. We warned people about Turner being overvalued, and we don’t expect anything to change this season in terms of that. What we do expect to happen is for the Falcons to do a better job in protecting Turner. They have to divide his carries up better by getting more carries to Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood. Norwood should be ready to play after this weeks bye, and is currently only owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues. If Turner doesn’t get protected he will assuredly end up nicked up with some type of injury. Either way Norwood should be on your fantasy radar spectrum. We expect after the bye week for Norwood to average seven to ten carries a game.

Reason: Injury Insurance

Current Starter: Pierre Thomas, Backup: Mike Bell
Bell’s currently out with a knee sprain and thus fantasy owners have tossed him back to the waiver wire. This team is no longer granting main carries to Reggie Bush. He’ll get his five to seven a game but the experiment they once had with him being a feature back Is done and over with. The carries will go to Thomas and Bell. For some reason the injury bug hits the Saints running backs constantly (Deuce McAllister), and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Bell land feature carries again at some point this season. Bell started off the year as one of the top backs in the league for the first two games and would be a solid option again if the opportunity presented itself. Bush and Thomas are already filling roster spots so grab Bell well you can as he is only 39% owned In Yahoo leagues.

Post Week Three Waiver Wire Pickups

Tuesday, 29 September, 2009

By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Whose out there that can help your squad get back in the heat of things before it’s too late?

Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell (33% owned in Yahoo)- Everyone in the Redskins organization seemingly wants Campbell out, but should they be looking at other positions? We think so. The Redskins usually were one of the best at running the football. Now three weeks into the season and Clinton Portis highest run total was 79 yards against the Rams. With their running game looking like it may be in the bottom five all season long, it means Jason Campbell is going to be airing it out. With their season likely to fold and no running game, expect Campbell to be a decent fantasy option at quarterback.

Brett Favre (71% owned in Yahoo)- We all knew there would come a point and time where Favre would have to win or lose a game with his arm. He threw a throw for a game winning touchdown that has made everyone stop their flapping mouths on Favre returning. For the first time this year though Favre seemed to be comfortable throwing it down the field and mixing it up a bit.

Running Backs
Jamaal Charles (9% owned in Yahoo)- Larry Johnson’s days seem to be done in Kansas City. His production has been atrocious and Charles is just waiting for the quick gun slinger mentality of Todd Haley before he is inserted into the starting lineup. Another poor game or two by Johnson and expect just that. Charles put up decent numbers against the Eagles in limited action and KC will likely keep adding more touches for him.

Fred Taylor (35% owned in Yahoo)- It could just be a one week wonder for Fred Taylor as far as production. He had 21 carries, and has only seen carries over twenty, four times in the last few seasons. New England got tired of their quarterback getting drilled every time because of their horrible ratio of pass to run. Taylor has a lot left in the tank thanks to Jacksonville being one of the earliest in the league to go with a time share at running back. Don’t forget before MJD, Taylor was sharing carries with James Stewart and others.

Jerome Harrison (6% owned in Yahoo)- James Davis was supposed to be the sleeper in Cleveland, but he has been setback by a myriad of things to start the season. So Harrison became the primary backup to Lewis who missed this past week of action. When Lewis is back it’ll be interesting to see how all three are used together. For now though Harrison has the most upside.

Glen Coffee (22% owned in Yahoo)- One of the top five must need hand cuffs for fantasy owners is widely available. It just goes to show how fantasy owners would rather fill their roster up with depth they don’t need. Coffee should get at least three starts it looks like, as Gore has been declared out for a minimum of three weeks. Expect the 49ers to mix in some carries for Michael Robinson, but Coffee should get between 18-22 carries a game. Against the Vikings he carried the ball 25 times and had a hard go finding holes. He should fare batter in the next three weeks and Is a strong play in all.

Wide Receivers
Davone Bess (9% owned in Yahoo)- With Ginn being their downfield target, Bess is their possession receiver over the middle as well as hot route receiver. The Dolphins like to use him in their quick screen attack, which sooner or later should result in a big gainer for Bess. Last week against the Chargers after Pennington went down, it seemed that Chad Henne was zeroed in on Bess. The two probably have chemistry with each other dating back to last season when both were drafted by the Dolphins. Bess remember was undrafted and likely worked with Henne one on one in practice drills. Move Bess up in your rankings and Ginn down.

Pierre Garcon (27% owned in Yahoo)- We truly believed Garcon was a one week wonder and was why we left him off our week two waiver wire pickups. As against the Dolphins he only had the one catch which resulted in a touchdown. Garcon though is the big play threat that Manning will use to his disposal for a couple of air it out tosses every game. Two weeks in a row now they’ve connected for big scores, and Garcon seems to be getting more and more comfortable with the offense. Garcon is not worthy of starting yet but can fill a spot on your bench until enough is seen from him.

Kelley Washington (3% owned in Yahoo)- Joe Flacco is proving that he is the real deal. Last year we had question marks around his protected season as the Ravens really didn’t let him win or lose the game. Now they’re letting him make plays and he is showing he is one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. With Flacco having two 300 yard games under his belt already it means the Ravens have went from not just two receivers worthy of fantasy consideration but three. With that amount of yards and balls be throwing around, Kelley Washington has been a quiet sleeper and one of Flacco’s favorite targets. With Washington factoring in the offense don’t wait for that big game or a Ravens receiver to go down before scooping him up.

Tight Ends
Brent Celek (59% owned in Yahoo)- Why he wasn’t one of the higher rated tight ends going into the year is questionable. The Eagles have always made their tight ends a high part of their offense, and with LJ Smith out of the picture, Celek figured to be a strong option. Three weeks in and he is outperforming all tight ends except Tony Gonzalez. Teams will disguise more coverages to stop him but he should continue to have a breakout year.

Post Week Two Waiver Wire

Monday, 21 September, 2009

By Zack Cimini

The early beginning weeks of the season always see an abnormal amount of great waiver wire pickup opportunities. Week one wasn’t such a fantasy outburst of a week, but week two spiked up contributions considerably. Besides a few yawners of games the rest were high scoring with practically no defense. Heck, Chris Johnson scored three touchdowns untouched. He looked like he was auditioning his forty speed once again.
Hopefully you’re commissioner has setup the waiver wire correctly. In that fashion either bidding or current record, fantasy points, or current slate for positioning of waiver wire should be set. If not, and it’s a free for all, make sure to get on top of your commissioner for next season. It’s a wrongful way to do it, and basically someone can pick a player up during mid-game and get lucky.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez

His numbers weren’t great in week two but the Jets won this game based on their defense and time of possession. Sanchez though has shown enough poise, command, and character that he is going to blossom quickly as a winner and fantasy quarterback. If you have him in you’re keeper leagues you made a great choice. Right now he is in the middle of the pack of the league, but should creep up near the Romo and Cassel range.

Jake Delhomme
He didn’t get the win but a good part of the blame on this loss goes to the Panthers defense. They couldn’t stop the Falcons and it could have been a blowout if not for a few turnovers by the Falcons. This is for sure, the Carolina Panthers currently have no one worth starting behind Delhomme. On top of that they’ve reinvested in Delhomme in the off-season, so he is there guy. Delhomme is a Brett Favre type of four or five years ago. He is going to put up big numbers, but rest assured there is going to be weeks where he’ll kill you with his erratic plays.

Running Backs

Beanie Wells
If he isn’t owned in your league than something is wrong (Only 69% in Yahoo Leagues). Wells could of possibly buried himself after an injury prone preseason, and fumbling twice this past week. The Cardinals are being patient with him though, as when he is on the field the Cardinals running game has instantly been explosive. Wells is currently averaging five yards a carry and is the burden off of Warner’s shoulders the Cardinals need. Give it a few more weeks before the announcement is made of Wells as the feature back and Hightower the third and short yardage back.

Felix Jones
Jones is owned by 71% of owners in Yahoo and with Marion Barber’s status in the air should be a hot waiver wire commodity. Jones of course is the big play back as he had a 50 plus yard touchdown run against the Giants. We will have to see if he can carry the load or how long Barber will be out with his quad injury.

LeSean McCoy
It didn’t take very long for the first of what should be numerous times that Brian Westbrook has got dinged up. His sprained ankle on his surgically repaired knee might not keep him out this week, but it will slow his impact down. Westbrook already hasn’t been the same dynamic back out the gate, which could be from missing the preseason. McCoy likely will see his touches go up per game to try and keep Westbrook from missing any games. Remember last season Westbrook hardly practiced and was still able to show up on Sunday. With McCoy getting most of the first team looks in practice it should help him become more comfortable and prepared for Sunday.

Justin Forsett
With the running game being ineffective the Seahawks decided to bring in Forsett as a threat out of the backfield. It worked decently as Forsett had six catches for over fifty yards, which translated to almost 100 all purpose yards. Forsett could be a one week wonder but take a gamble on him anyways. The future of a Jones/James backfield is definitely not in the Seahawks future, so look for Forsett to be involved in same fashion.
Wide Receivers
It goes without saying that the hottest waiver wire pickups of the week come as a tandem force in New York. Both Steve Smith and Mario Manningham put up a complimentary performance that made fans forget Burress/Tommer. The Giants were also without two receivers that were the main reason fantasy owners stayed away from Giants receivers, in Hakeem Nicks and Domenick Hixon. Tom Coughlin will move forward with this and keep Eli happy.

Mike Sims-Walker
The Jaguars receiver is going to be in a starting role now with Troy Williamson likely out for the year. Jaguars receivers have never really been a considerable fantasy starter, but the Jags seem to be struggling to find their identity offensively with Fred Taylor gone. They played from behind against the Cardinals and Garrard threw a whopping 43 times. Sims-Walker was the biggest beneficial person and will get a chance to continue to shine.

Jason Avant
Kevin Curtis has dropped down dramatically and rookie Jeremy Maclin has been a non factor. The Eagles have always been a team to have disparity with their passing and running game, and this will enhance Avants chances even when Maclin begins to emerge.

Receivers With Opportunities

Friday, 18 September, 2009

By Zack Cimini

The continued conversations on reducing preseason games has been a hot topic for years. What isn’t is all the early season injuries that happen. Injuries are going to happen but the huge spike at the start of the season has to raise eyebrows. Coaches aren’t allowing their athletes to get enough physical contact during the preseason, with enough quarters to play in. Starters are lucky if they play a complete games minutes during a four game preseason. Thus after week one injuries are rampant and this leaves opportunities galore for players ready to step in.

This week we will focus on a few situations at the receiver position. Seattle, Indianapolis, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Oakland all have statuses with receivers that will not or likely won’t play. This gives fantasy owners a great chance to sneak in a bench spot receiver or waiver wire pickup for the week.

Out: Antonio Bryant In: Sammie Stroughter

Bryant’s knee still isn’t fully recovered from surgery right before preseason, so in steps Stroughter. Byron Leftwich has had issues with his accuracy but threw over 40 passes week one. Tampa did get down against Dallas’s high octane offense, but expect Leftwich to still throw between 25-30 passes a week.

Out: Anthony Gonzalez In: Pierre Garcon

For now Garcon will try to fill the void with Gonzalez out for an extended amount of time. The Colts did sign Hank Baskett and we will have to see how he is utilized in a few weeks. Peyton Manning is going to make someone besides Reggie Wayne fantasy relevant. Garcon gets his chance, can he make the most of it?

Out: Chaz Schilens: In: Louis Murphy

Murphy stepped in and out did fellow rookie first round selection Darrius Heyward-Bey. We will see how this plays out on a week to week basis, as Jamarcus Russell only completed 12 passes week one. Still the Raiders seem to be more comfortable with attacking through the air with their offense. Schilens is due back within the next few weeks. Until then Murphy and Bey will be positioning themselves for the second spot upon Schilens return.

Out: TJ Houshmanzadeh: In: Nate Burelson
Housh likely will not play making Nate Burelsons value rise for the week. Burelson is already a starter but being the number one option in a west coast offense is going to raise his stock dramatically. He should receive plenty of looks from Matt Hasselbeck, in the area of 12-15 passes his way.

Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin: In: Jerehme Urban

Both Breaston and Boldin are nicked up but expect Boldin too see some action. Even if both can play Urban should see a significant amount of snaps since neither were able to practice all week. Urban has decent chemistry with Warner, and we’d expect the Cardinals to attack down field much more than they did week one. Fitz was limited to just five catches and their leading receiver was Tim Hightower with 12 catches. That’s not what you want to see from one of the most dynamic offenses last year.

Turner's Fantasy Value Misleading

Wednesday, 19 August, 2009

By Zack Cimini

Last year saw a free agent running back get his pay day and a starting spot for an NFL team. No one knew where to project him as a fantasy running back, and figured the team would struggle due to numerous variables. Yet this team stormed to a revival and became an overnight success story. There is no question this back should now be a first round fantasy selection, but buyer beware……beware.

Michael Turner had an incredible year that allowed Matt Ryan to be a rookie, and make plays only when needed. Carrying the ball at nearly 400 times gave Turner the output you’d expect from that amount of carries, with 17 touchdowns and nearly 1700 yards. He also led the league in yards after initial contact. At his size he has a rare combination of adding on yards when there is nothing.

At 27, Turner feels he can keep going at last year’s pace without worrying about his body breaking down. Reason for that is he was a primary backup for years in San Diego, so actually feels like he has only played one season. A good season at that, but will the Falcons actually keep Turner’s pace of carries that high?

We think they’ll lessen the load for a few reasons. One, Matt Ryan will be more comfortable with the teams system. It’s not that Ryan didn’t throw a lot last season, as he had many games where he threw in the high twenties for attempts. The x-factor where they’d pull Ryan back a bit came within the red-zone. For a quarterback that threw as much as he did, Ryan only had 16 touchdown passes. Another peculiar stat on Ryan’s touchdown throws is that most of them came on big plays.

That’ll change in a hurry now that the Falcons brought in tight end, Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been one of the best red zone targets for over a decade now, and doesn’t seem to have lost anything physically. Double check the amount of touchdowns Ryan threw to a tight end last season. Still looking? That’s right……zero. If Gonzalez hovers around his average for touchdowns a season (7), how many touchdowns will this take away from Turner? It could be a bigger impact than fantasy owners think drafting Turner as a top three fantasy back.

For being fourth in the league in points, the Atlanta Falcons red zone efficiency was amazing. Can they sustain that success within the red zone?

Ready for the third clincher on why Turner’s season a year ago will come down from fantasy craziness? Jerious Norwood. Norwood is a back that has averaged over 5 yards a carry the last three seasons with minimal touches. He makes a big play on a high rate average usually a long burner. Sooner or later the Falcons are going to have to figure a way to make more plays for him. He can’t continue to get 100 carries a season, as he is too productive.

They have figured a way to get him more involved out of the backfield as his catches per year have went up to a career high 36 last season. Last year he had 131 complete touches and scored six touchdowns. More than anything you’d have to expect the Falcons to protect their premier back in Turner by not overworking him. This team is talented and will need to have him energized for a second burst come playoff time. If not a season low average and yards per carry could happen once again in the first round of the playoffs (2.3 ypc for 42 yards against the Cardinals).