Running Back

One More Season

Tuesday, 6 August, 2013

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Bring back Ray Lewis from the studios of ESPN and on the field with a championship contender. Come on New England bring him on board to be the leader of the Patriots defense, and deliver Brady another quest for a shot at a title. No, no, no, this is not a Brett Favre early August rally to see Ray Lewis on the field for one more season.

It does have to do with Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Is it his time to fall off the fantasy radar maps much like greats in the past did, LT, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, etc? He is approaching that age that makes true franchises and fantasy owners get the jitters. All types of questions can surface but I’m not one to predict a complete downfall season unexpectedly. Typically you can see signs of wearing down from a running back to negate his fantasy value. Examples of the more recent would be all the backs listed a few sentences ago, and throw a back like Michael Turner in that mix as well.

Even though a running back may be regressing, in the right situation he is still going to get a fair amount of carries and a large chunk of the workload. As a Jacksonville Jaguar, MJD, will continue to reap the bulk of the Jaguars offensive categories in terms of carries and percentage of involvement in their offense. It’s a question if those carries will be as meaningful as in years past, and if MJD can avoid hitting the injury bug.

But isn’t that a question amongst all NFL players? Yes it is. A year ago MJD s contract issues held his fantasy value low in a lot of drafts, and he did not end up signing his contract until September 3rd. His value for where he ended up getting drafted was far better than the rounds he landed. At least up until he got injured after six games on the field. His production was still near five yards a carry, and being on a team such as Jacksonville worries of him rushing back from an injury were not even thought of.

He has not played tackle football since mid-October and we are only talking about a foot injury here. As long as it has healed properly, you can expect Jones-Drew to regain some of his fantasy football consistency as a top fantasy back.

Time away from the field in fantasy football means you can fall off the fantasy radar blip just a little bit. Just ask Adrian Peterson. His value has re-risen like a company that had a poor earnings quarter and blew past projections three quarters later. He is right back on top.

While the CJ Spiller’s, Trent Richardson’s, and Doug Martin’s come into this season with a higher rating, do not rule out MJD from sneaking back up past them. Jones-Drew has had a few off the field issues this offseason but none that have been tagged as serious offenses.

Going into your fantasy drafts you should realize that Jones-Drew can be there easily for you as a running back second option. Depending on how running backs fly off your draft boards he should be there anywhere from the mid second to early third round. I say if you can get him as your second running back than do it. He’ll be right there with your RB1 statistically, and will for sure have a half of a season’s worth of games in which he’ll outdo your RB1 fantasy points wise.

MJD is not going to fade just yet. I say give him one more season to prove his fantasy relevance or demise. We all saw how Jamaal Charles and AP bounced back from serious injuries in just one season. MJD will be just fine even on that same pathetic anemic Jacksonville Jaguars offense.

The Burning Question

Tuesday, 6 August, 2013

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You could see the writing on the wall for Andy Reid’s grand finale and official exit as a Philadelphia Eagles head coach. He had a long run in Philadelphia but it just seemed that change was needed on both sides. Still a heck of a coach it was no surprise that Reid was a top candidate for the many vacancies left open in the coaching ranks in the offseason of 2013.

He landed in Kansas City were the team has had offensive woes that ranked near the bottom of the league for a passing attack. The money spent on Matt Cassel was right up there for the money the Arizona Cardinals over spent on landing Kevin Kolb. If there is one thing about Andy Reid he knows how to run offenses.

The supporting cast in Philadelphia was always around for Reid to do so. In his first year in Kansas City how will he manage Alex Smith and have the Chiefs competitive in year one?

The answer to that question is to change his rather unique philosophies on game planning offensively. In Philadelphia it was no secret that Reid’s penchant was to throw the football. This year in Kansas City I expect Reid to tone it down quite a bit and ride the backfield starting with Jamaal Charles.

That’s the burning question for fantasy owners. Can they bank on Jamaal Charles even if Andy Reid is back up to his old tricks. Do the names of Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter and LeSean McCoy ring a bell? They should. Buckhalter’s name was brought in the mix to showcase that Reid has had success with a complimentary back having fantasy value. The rest were top tier running backs in their heydays, which McCoy is still in.

Jamaal Charles has that game speed shiftiness intangible that Reid has thrived with backs such as Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. They do not necessarily have to carry the load with 300 carries in a season to be a top fantasy back. Reid ensures his stars are involved in the offense from a running back standpoint, but he mixes it up differently than most coaches do.

He’ll wear down defenses with the quick screen or just stretching the field overall with a simple dump pass route to the running back. One of his patented red zone moves with Donovan McNabb at quarterback was the inside the ten yard line quick shuffle pass to the running back from the shotgun formation. With all the presnap focus and confusing formations set on linebackers, it will continue to work in Kansas City.

Charles is an obvious first round fantasy running back candidate. The worries of Reid’s offense should be halted, as it is inflated conversation with actual results produced by his running backs. If Kansas City throws the football 58 to 60 percent of the time who cares as long as Charles is trending as a top back.

If Charles was a 1500 dominating back on a team that had little to offer a year ago, imagine what he will do with a consistent capable team on the field now?

I rate him right in the range of a first round pick between the 5th and 10th pick. That’s dependent on how quick the running backs fly off the board. If you end up getting him toward the later part of the first round you’ll end up smiling after week one, week two, week three, week four—hell the whole season.

Reid’s history with running backs speaks for itself. The talent of Charles will only spring that chemistry upward and give the Chiefs a chance to catapult as a playoff contender.

Top Forty RB Rankings for Week Five

Tuesday, 2 October, 2012

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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Oakland

Here are week five’s rankings at running back. Keep an eye on how many carries Rashard Mendenhall receives this week from Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and team doctors have cleared his return and need him desperately as their running game has lacked effeciency. He is not included in this week’s top forty, but may make his way as a fantasy impactful player within the next two to four games.

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Arian Foster
3. Ray Rice
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Frank Gore
8. Willis McGahee
9. Trent Richardson
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Ryan Matthews
12. MJD
13. Michael Turner
14. Alfred Morris
15. Darren Sproles
16. Reggie Bush
17. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
18. Stevan Ridley
19. Cedric Benson
20. Chris Johnson
21. Ryan Williams
22. Fred Jackson
23. DeAngelo Williams
24. CJ Spiller
25. Steven Jackson
26. Daniel Thomas
27. Michael Bush
28. Donald Brown
29. Shonn Greene
30. Andre Brown
31. Isaac Redman
32. Jonathan Stewart
33. Jackie Battle
34. Jacquizz Rodgers
35. Ben Tate
36. Pierre Thomas
37. Ronnie Hillman
38. Kendall Hunter
39. Brandon Bolden
40. Lamar Miller

Tier Two/Three RB That Will Produce As a One

Sunday, 2 September, 2012

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The ever valuable running back gem landed in the latter part of fantasy drafts can be the overall difference maker come December. A few years ago it was Arian Foster who ran wild on defenses and sprung fantasy teams to title success. It’s not typical but you can land that back from an array of happenings. It usually takes an injury or a new environment for that to be a possibility.

There is a running back out in Chicago that has exactly that. A solid contract and a history of producing higher each of the last three seasons. Michael Bush just needs the carries, and based on Mike Tice’s ideas he could very well get those.

Holding out as Matt Forte did was done in part because he was so heavily involved in the Bears offense the last few seasons. These were not improvised play calls that Forte happened to be the check down option. Mike Martz wanted to bring the St. Louis Rams offense of his hey days to Chicago. Once the Bears figured out they did not have the receivers to do so, it turned into the best show by Forte. Runs and designed quick throws to Forte led to him catching over 50 passes each of the last three years.

Carries with the ground attack are there for two backs nowadays. The Bears did not over run Forte with carries, as they substituted the dump off passes to lessen his load. This year will be different with Mike Bush in the fold. They did not sign him to be a back that only carries five to seven times a game.

He will see at least ten carries a game. With how much of a threat Forte is out of the backfield it would not be shocking to see both behind Cutler. This backfield could be comparable to Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams or even ex Giant, Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw.

That means a heavy workload inside the ten for Bush. Chicago has the capability and weapons to be a top ten team for points offensively this year. That’s a bonus for Bush owners, who know Bush has been one of the better number two running backs in the league the past two seasons.

A typical running back is going to have his share of injuries throughout the season. It may not lead to not starting, but playing through injuries can be just as detrimental. Forte is coming off an injury and the Bears will want to protect him by taking necessary precautions. That means handing the ball to Bush and if there is a short stint of games Forte misses, than they would rely on Bush heavily.

While in Oakland Bush has had a knack for getting starts due to injury. He started seven games in 2009, three in 2010, and nine a year ago. If he can get near 160 to 180 carries you can expect Bush to be a borderline number tier one fantasy back that you start in your RB2 slot.

The quiet benefit with Bush is he can also catch the ball out of the backfield. You do not see that arsenal with many backs Bush’s size. Last year though Carson Palmer threw to Bush 37 times for over 400 yards receiving.

Even if Bush does not get two to three starts due to injury, we know what he can do in a strong role behind a starter. Just because a back does not reach 1,000 yard mark does not mean you should deter yourself from drafting him. Bush will outdo plenty of backs ahead of him in rankings and ADP.

Expect 700-750 yards rushing, near 200 yards receiving, and double digit touchdowns from Bush.

Back Most Affected by Dual Backfield System

Wednesday, 29 August, 2012

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Many fantasy owners are enamored by Reggie Bush heading into the 2012 season. As a Dolphin last year he finally had the type of success many thought he would getting drafted into the NFL. For a guy that has not had near the success in his first five seasons in New Orleans, many are wondering what will happen this year as a Dolphin.

While in New Orleans after failed chances at being the featured back, New Orleans decided to relegate his role to sort of a decoy. A few carries here and there and try to spring him out for quick passes to let him utilize his speed. When his free agency came along, the Saints did not feel the value offered by his agent was true to what he brings on the field.

Miami though decided they would try to re-tool and utilize him differently. Up until week thirteen of last year it looked as if Bush was going to have another sub-par season. He only had one game rushing over 100 yards up until that point, and Miami was content at using Daniel Thomas just as much as they were Bush.

Thomas was banged up though out the season and that’s when the door opened a bit for Bush. Weeks 13-16 Bush ran wild and totaled 519 yards rushing including his monster game against the Buffalo Bills. Those yardage numbers were almost equal his season total through twelve games. So was the finish to Bush’s season in 2011 an aberration or can it carry over to 2012?

Even though Miami has a new coaching staff, it has serious holes offensively. A rookie quarterback and a depleted receiving group will force Miami to run the football as much as last season. The fact remains to be seen though if Miami will give more carries to Daniel Thomas over Bush. Thomas is more of the prototypical back and had success as a rookie last season.

Bush will see his carries head backward from the twenty carries a game he received weeks thirteen through sixteen. Miami also drafted rookie running back Lamar Miller in the fourth round. He should not pose a threat to either Thomas or Bush. It’s more of a pick to secure the backfield due to Thomas’s injury history and Bush’s size.

I would not consider Bush as a weekly fantasy starter. He can be a RB3 with possible starts based on Miami’s consistency with Bush. The question for Bush owners should be how many fantasy points can they expect from Bush with around twelve carries a game. That is what he averaged the first eleven games of 2011. Thomas will figure to get near fifteen carries a game.

This is what makes it tricky for Bush owners, because Bush can be treated like a hot jump shooter in professional basketball. Once on the field, if his first five to seven carries are explosive and getting the offense going, Miami will likely feed him an extra amount of carries over Thomas. If he is not getting the necessary yards than Miami will pound it with Thomas.

It’s an unusual circumstance that does not occur with most backs around the NFL. Bush should average six to eight fantasy points per game in standard leagues, and ten to twelve in PPR leagues. Expect around 750 yards rushing and five touchdowns on the year.

Player Profile: Robert Turbin

Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

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It’s been quite some time since a rookie running back had a true fantasy impact in year one. Last season many were expecting Mark Ingram to be just that as a New Orleans Saint. Instead the tandem system and Ingram’s ineffectiveness lessened his work load as the season progressed. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are both more fantasy friendly than Ingram.

The rookie that stirred a frenzy off the waiver wire last season was DeMarco Murray. He burst onto the scene because of opportunity and now is a top tier fantasy back. It all opened up for Murray because of injuries in front of him, and the fact the Cowboys had let Marion Barber and Tashard Choice go.

Who will it be this year that surprises? It may not be for a significant amount of games like Murray, but Seattle’s rookie Robert Turbin is already on many fantasy radar watch lists after his preseason. With the Seahawks letting workmanlike beast Marshawn Lynch rest in the preseason, Turbin has received the majority of carries and looked impressive.

The fourth round pick out of Utah State might be the most physically imposing running back in the NFL already. His physique particularly in his arms are comparable to former Arizona Cardinal/Tampa Bay running back Michael Pittman. Statistically Turbin has been solid from game one in the preseason, and last week against Kansas City he had over 90 yards rushing.

Pete Carroll sort of shares the same values as Mike Shanahan. If you’re producing he is not afraid to make a move. No matter the salary of the player that is supposed to have that position. It creates a continual reevaluation of roster positions even during the season.

Drafting in your fantasy leagues, Robert Turbin was already an automatic handcuff for Marshawn Lynch. A year ago Lynch received the majority of carries as the Seahawks did not have a back behind him capable of handling duties. That will change with Turbin, who should get five to seven carries a game to spell Lynch.

This could boost Lynch’s fantasy impact. He will be fresher over the course of the season and not overworked as he was a year ago.

Lynch has missed preseason action with a back injury that Seattle has said is minor. In fact Lynch has practiced in the majority of Seahawks practices. An area everyone knows Lynch is on a short leash is his off the field issues. It was one of the main reasons why Buffalo decided to let him go, and he has already had a few issues as a Seahawk. One more offense and a suspension or upper management move could come.

The style that Lynch runs with is not one of longevity for a running back. If Turbin was not handcuffed by Marshawn Lynch owners and you have roster spots to tinker with, pick up Turbin and sit him on your bench.

Bench players do not necessarily always have to be integral weekly parts of your fantasy team. If you are overloaded it just makes decisions harder on Sundays when you’re trying to fulfill your starters. Bench points you see can be frustrating and cause you a loss from the wrong insertion. So it’s always good to have a player or two with upside that won’t cause you headaches weekly.