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It’s mid-June, which means optimism for fantasy football drafts is right around the corner. Commissioners are already loading your inbox’s and sending you text messages about joining their league. Do yourself a favor and commit to the three leagues now, and tune out the bombardment of invitations that will come all summer.

Be sure to also ask a question on the scoring system of your possible league. If your not a fan of inflated points than be selective when giving the ok to join a league.

For PPR leagues that are out there you need to be dialed in for guys that are going to catch the football. It can make the world of difference in your week to week score, and ending up with a crushing defeat.

Here is an early look at backs that should end the season as a top ten PPR running back.

Darren Sproles
Sproles was already a dynamic force as the Saints cog out of the backfield. He has aged a bit and is on his third team in as many years. But Sproles still has the wheels to capitalize in the Eagles fast and furious offense. This is an Oregon blended Chip Kelly move. Sproles will torcher opposing fantasy football PPR leagues, while remaining as a likely third or fourth back in standard leagues.

Matt Forte
Forte is that back nearing that questionable phase of his career. He has hit bumps before in his career but somehow has maintained solid fantasy status. One of the main reasons he has been able to do so is because of the new system he is in. The Bears have a more open attack which is allowing for Forte to get out in open space. You have to wonder if the end is coming for him in a Bears uniform though. But for 2014 he is one of the few backs you can count on for duel credit as a rusher and pass catcher.

Le’Veon Bell
Bell was a back that drove some owners to the postseason and drove others nuts. He is a young back though that will be propelled to an even higher status this season as a Steeler. He still needs to find his balance statistically on a weekly basis before being rendered as a high value standard fantasy back. For PPR leagues though he is cemented as a worthy starter.

Others:

Jamaal Charles
His quarterback is one of the highest check down passers in the game in Alex Smith.

Reggie Bush
Bush remains on a team that will continue to utilize his unique skillset.

Danny Woodhead
Expect regression from last year’s out of nowhere performance from Woodhead. He’ll still have solid value though.

Chris Johnson
His new situation should refuel some fantasy value to Johnson.

Ray Rice
The Ravens won a Super Bowl based on Rice’s ability to create out of the backfield. Two years later and there are some big time questions lurking on his fantasy football projections.

Giovanni Bernard
Bernard is the new head honcho set to take the throne over older speed backs listed above.

Pierre Thomas
Thomas no longer has the high value he once held as a standard fantasy back. The value he does hold is strictly in PPR leagues.

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Tenure as a top fantasy football running back is a long gone signature to fantasy football. Back in the 1990’s and even early 2000’s the way a running back was handled is completely different from today. Coaches use to burn their star running back year after year, and made fantasy owners quite happy. Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Ricky Waters, etc. all enjoyed a top tier track record as fantasy backs.

Then things began to change in the 2000’s. The size of athletes grew, along with intense training, salary cap restrictions, and a plethora of other dynamics. Teams began to realize they had to shift their player priority plans in two to three year spans, instead of long term. Relying on a running back on the downtrend of his career just was not feasible anymore.

Teams began to implore better analytics to achieve youthful running backs for a lower dollar amount. Essentially they had a backup plan in their backfield, and in turn could keep their backfield competitive with proper rotation.

The period where fantasy owners were leery on how to draft in a dual backfield system has been over. Fantasy owners have adjusted and many could argue that this day and age of fantasy football there is better depth to be had. Before owners could win the league based on having two to three of the top players. Now you truly have to grind out your roster top to bottom on a week to week basis.

Still a draft can be ruined if your top pick(s) end up the IR report for a long duration of the season or hit an abrupt fantasy wall.

There is no other position that has a free fall at the top position like a running back. An elite receiver or quarterback can sustain their careers into their 30’s. At running back that wall can come abruptly well before the age of 30 or shortly thereafter.

Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LT, Ray Rice, Brian Westbrook and countless others have deteriorated in one season right before our eyes. It’s like watching a stock downtrend month to month after a strong run. As a fantasy owner you think the back will bounce back any week, but it just doesn’t happen. The next season that back is properly ranked with a red down arrow next to his name. His stock is still sinking and his backup is gaining on him via the front office and coaching staff.

That’s the business of the NFL.

In Philadelphia, Eagles fans have become accustomed to top backs that fizzle quickly. Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and Ricky Waters all saw their time come and go.

McCoy is just 25 but not a young 25. He has been a strong back in this league for a good five years now. Unheard of for backs his age. He also has been the type of back that carries the load running and out of the backfield. Andy Reid was one of the few coaches that didn’t mind utilizing his backs at a high rate, and was always infatuated with backs that could catch the ball. Chip Kelly may even hold this area of football higher than Reid.

You wouldn’t expect a tremendous blip from McCoy this year barring injury, but a dip is possible. Sooner or later McCoy is going to slowly lose one of his dominant traits. It may just be this season. Draft cautiously.

Week Two Fantasy Running Back Rankings

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1. Adrian Peterson- Don’t make much of Peterson’s non-success after his first carry. Not many backs had all around games in week one.
2. LeSean McCoy- The conditioning looks to have paid dividends for McCoy
3. Jamaal Charles- Kansas City will surprise some this week with their expanded offense. Charles has always been a fantasy stud in prior years, and will see his stock rise week to week this season.
4. Ray Rice- The Ravens will stomp the Browns this weekend. Rice should get at least two touchdowns.
5. Matt Forte- His shiftiness isn’t like it use to be, but Forte is a dual threat running back in the Bears offense
6. Arian Foster- His role may be reduced some this year, but he is still a top eight fantasy back week to week
7. Reggie Bush- His numbers will come down drastically this week at a tough place to play. But an overall game of 100 all purpose yards will be suffice for fantasy owners.
8. Eddie Lacy-Lacy’s impact was not huge week one, but he responded better than most backs do after a fumble. In the second half he had some quality runs against a strong 49ers defense.
9. Alfred Morris- Morris was one of many backs that had a case of fumbles week one. Don’t give him the label of sophomore slump just yet.
10. Steven Jackson- Jackson gets to go against his former team and will be ready to go
11. Doug Martin
12. CJ Spiller
13. Trent Richardson
14. DeAngelo Williams
15. Darren McFadden
16. Marshawn Lynch
17. DeMarco Murray
18. Frank Gore
19. Stevan Ridley
20. MJD
21. Chris Johnson
22. Darren Sproles
23. David Wilson
24. Rashard Mendenhall
25. Knowshown Moreno
26. Lamar Miller

28. Ryan Matthews
29. Ben Tate
30. Pierre Thomas
31. Daryl Richardson
32. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
33. Bernard Pierce
34. Ahmad Bradshaw
35. Joique Bell
36. Ronnie Hillman
37. Mark Ingram
38. Isaac Redman
39. Bilal Powell
40. Fred Jackson
41. Montee Ball
42. Kendall Hunter
43. Brandon Jacobs
44. Bryce Brown
45. Daniel Thomas
46. Jacquizz Rodgers
47. Mike Tolbert
48. Mike Bush
49. Ronnie Brown
50. Felix Jones

Power To The Backfield

Follow@cimini The BCS Championship was supposed to be a matchup of the two best teams in college football when Notre Dame and Alabama took the field. All the hype of a possible Notre Dame upset over Alabama was pushed even higher by the Notre Dame fanfare. They had beaten Stanford and Oklahoma, so seemingly they stood a chance against Alabama. Eddie Lacy’s dictated running, spin moves, and shedding of tacklers put an end to that moot point. The bowl game turned from a championship into what looked like a week one college game. A game usually dedicated to conference powers tuning up for the season with a weak opponent. The demolition derby began early and was a three hour spectacle of Alabama’s coup de grace over Notre Dame. How Eddie Lacy performed in that game with ease, surely was thought to catapult him as a first round pick. Poor draft workouts and surgery nicked his stock a little bit, but not to the dismay of the Green Bay Packers. The carousel of backs since Ahman Green had a productive season has seen the likes of Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and even Cedric Benson a year ago. Voicing displeasure surely would of happened by other quarterbacks around the league, but Aaron Rodgers is an on the field performer and not a media guy. Having success with a rookie running back has fallen from the hey days of Robert Edwards and Fred Taylor years ago. Last year though it resurrected with top backs Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, and sixth round draft pick Albert Morris all having quality seasons. Significant impact years that retrained the eyes of fantasy owners and dynasty league drafts to pay attention to a rookie running back no matter if he is drafted in the first round or not. Like Merril Hoge says a factor back is a factor. Coming into the NFL it is never guaranteed for immediate success but chances are growing now that more teams are in need for bigger depth at the running back position. Aging of backs has also caused a somewhat of a make shift of longevity in running backs lessening the opportunities of rookie backs. With the surplus of backs and cut downs on carries per game, its aging backs better. A veteran that does not see the field too much as a second or third back is going to be considered by other teams, while before teams would just rebuild through the draft. Now teams know the legs are not burnt up from their first four to five years in the league, and can count on them for a second contract. It’s sort of similar to how the NBA handles second round draft picked rookies. Contracts are not guaranteed so they make those picks fight out a roster spot with an NBA/Overseas veteran that has just as much talent. The gap has closed in the backfield for elite prospects, so why over pay for a first round running back? Eddie Lacy is trying to buck the notion that he should of fell to the second round, instead of being a first round pick. Many would want to point out the fact that Mark Ingram from Alabama has not even surpassed Pierre Thomas on the Saints depth chart. That is true, but a situation can change all of everything, and Lacy has that chance in Green Bay. With Duane Harris just going down to a season ending injury the Packers have exactly what Lacy wants. Opportunity. He gets to step in a heavy workload situation where he can either fall out of favor with the Packers quickly, or supplant himself steadily in a role the Packers have been trying to fill for years. Green Bay still has running backs James Starks and Alex Green and may utilize them early in the season if Lacy struggles. But Green Bay knows what Starks and Green can offer them and want to build away from that, not onto it. Jonathan Franklin the other rookie drafted from UCLA appears to be behind in understanding the offense so his impact will be little if any until later in the season. This predicament with Lacy can leave fantasy drafters with endless questions. To draft Lacy as their second or third back, or let him stray to unchartered waters elsewhere, and not have to worry about him altogether. I believe Lacy is vastly undervalued right now, and even more with the season-ending injury to Harris who the Packers planned on involving heavily. Let’s put the past few semi-successful running backs in Green Bay in perspective. In a passing attack that ranks top five with the best quarterback in football, James Starks and Ryan Grant had solid seasons. Starks had more of an impact in the Green Bay Packers playoff Super Bowl run because he was coming off an injury. Grant’s heyday was more with Brett Favre but he still provided solid action and results for the Packers. If those two backs can do it why not Lacy? The primary issue with Green Bay Packers running backs in the past has been injuries. Lacy has already had a few that he has had to recover from, and will need to avoid the injury bug. Being ranked anymore from the high teens to mid 20’s is where Lacy is falling for running backs. Select Lacy as your third running back and stamp trade bait and the green arrow next to him for stock rising. For where he is ranked even if he only stays your backup running back you can’t complain. But like last year’s rookie crop, I doubt he’ll stay on the bench too long.

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Did you hold your fantasy draft back in June or July and now are left staring at a roster you believe to be the best possible? There can only be one hype man of your team and that’s you. By week one you may find yourself needing to upgrade. Rankings by your fantasy league via rotisserie stats are meaningless. Pay attention to weekly rankings here.

After the second week of the preseason here are where the running backs rank.

! Denotes On The Rise
^ Denotes On The Decline

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin !- Owners and soon-to-be draftees worry not. Martin did not sustain a concussion on his knee to the head in week two of the preseason.
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster ^- Foster has not let little nagging injuries in the past few seasons deter his fantasy success. One can escape a couple of times, but the injury bug is calling Foster’s name. Precautions seem to be the main reason he is missing preseason. For fantasy owners Foster is the top ten back that has the most question marks.
6. CJ Spiller
7. Ray Rice
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Alfred Morris
10. Chris Johnson
11. Trent Richardson
12. Stevan Ridley
13. Ryan Matthews
14. MJD !- MJD is quickly falling out of the top tier of fantasy backs. As we’ve seen with top fantasy backs of the past, once the fall begins, the drop descends rather quickly from fantasy relevancy.
15. Matt Forte
16. Frank Gore
17. Darren McFadden
18. David Wilson !- The Giants just have a knack for having that steady backfield. Manning’s had Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw who have all been fantasy studs at one point or another.
19. Steven Jackson
20. Lamar Miller
21. DeMarco Murray
22. Andre Brown
23. Reggie Bush
24. Chris Ivory
25. Vick Ballard
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ^- Green-Ellis’s biggest impact for fantasy owners were his mauler runs for six in the red zone. Still Ellis was an every down back that could provide chunks of yards to those plungers. Giovanni Bernard has been electric in games and in practice. Carries will be taken away from Ellis slowly but surely, and likely a higher fashion of split carries than Ellis has seen in quite awhile.
27. Darryl Richardson
28. Rashard Mendenhall
29. Darren Sproles
30. Le’Veon Bell
31. Mikel Leshoure
32. Bryce Brown !- The fast pace expected from the Eagles has to come with movement of backup players at key positions. Running back is at the top of the list as the Eagles will do all they can to protect Vick’s health.
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Eddie Lacy
35. Ronnie Hillman
36. Giovani Bernard
37. Mark Ingram
38. Shane Vereen
39. Ben Tate
40. Jonathan Stewart
41. Bernard Pierce
42. Montee Ball
43. Fred Jackson
44. Jonathan Dwyer
45. Ahmad Bradshaw
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Joseph Randle
48. Isaac Redman
49. Jacquizz Rodgers
50. Fred Helu
51. Donald Brown
52. Mike Bush
53. Mike Goodson
54. Pierre Thomas
55. Alfonso Smith
56. Joique Bell
57. Jonathan Franklin
58. Denard Robinson ^- Each year there is a new wrinkle unfolded by franchises to muster yards on the football field. Robinson’s use as a Jaguar should be one of the more curious developments in the early weeks of the season. This will not be like the Pat White experiment Miami tried. Robinson will get direct carries from the backfield as he has in the first couple weeks of preseason and at Michigan last year.
59. Knile Davis
60. Daniel Thomas

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The New Orleans Saints may hate to admit it, but when they let Reggie Bush walk away a few years ago, a part of the Saints explosiveness disappeared. Darren Sproles had some sporadic games in which he was able to reappear in the form of Reggie Bush like a magic-trick, but injuries have hurt Sproles effectiveness.

New Orleans never really did use Bush in the way he would have liked. They used him more as a decoy, and with how fast the Saints were scoring, Bush’s role was never really questioned. Part of the issue that has transformed Bush was his ability to shake off the misperception that he could not run in –between the tackles. As a Saint, he truly couldn’t. That’s where the Saints would utilize one of their plethora of backs they had to carry the load.

Bush wanted to shake that label, and he did just that as a Dolphin. He proved to be much more than a PPR fantasy option, as he had several big games on the ground. Even though Miami had options of Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller, Bush still put up viable numbers of nearly 1000 yards rushing.

Now the question is how will Miami and Detroit adjust with/without the Bush factor? Miami believed they needed to give their young running backfield a chance to break through. Miller and Thomas figure to platoon the carries. Both had their share of carries last year but I do not believe either put two feet down for the permanent lead role in 2013.

With both having injury concerns it will be imperative they make it through September and October healthy. Nothing lowers the chance of a young back to prove himself than getting hurt right out the gate. There are too many young talented backs that will get an opportunity if that happens. In the preseason game against Dallas on Sunday neither Miller nor Thomas had great outings, with Miller botching a handoff at the start of the game.

The preseason is not a time to over react, the Miami coaching staff believes they made the right decision with these two. I do not expect either to be a fantasy football juggernaut, because of their offensive line issues and the second year growth of Tannehill. They do deserve to be flex options and roster depth fillers.

In Detroit, Reggie Bush is going to get a slightly bigger role than what he had last year in Miami. Detroit is not going to go full throttle with him as they still have Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. The area where Bush will exceed his fantasy value over the past two years is out of the backfield. We all know the Lions have Megatron and a decent cast of receivers around him. They’re also a team that ranks near the top in pass attempts with Matthew Stafford and three to four spread receiver sets.

This is the area where Bush’s stats out of the backfield should shift back to where they were as a Saint. That should get him in the range of 450 (low end) to 600 (high end) receiving yards. There is no telling what he can do with the type of explosiveness he has and additional throws that will come his way.

He will be involved and not forgotten as what happened in New Orleans. You just have to hope that Bush does not get disgruntled throughout the season if the Lions lean to Bell or LeShoure in a given game. He didn’t in Miami, so I do not expect it to get to him now.

If you’re not focusing on running backs early, and plan to get your RB2 later, than Bush is a solid gamble to fill that role. That’s in standard fantasy formats. If it’s a PPR than you’ll be more than happy with Bush.