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Last years success by rookie quarterbacks was at a pinnacle of achievement compared to years past success. Ben Roethlisberger and some other quarterbacks have had success but not to the extent that Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 did in the same year. You can add Colin Kaepernick into that same discussion even though he was drafted a year earlier.

Defenses and NFL coaching staffs as a whole are all about adjusting to new looks. Advanced scouting sooner or later catches up to athletes. Just ask Mike Vick and the mini-success of the wildcat offense.

Of those five quarterbacks three will likely come down to Earth just a little bit, or experience more woes than they are accustomed to based on their success last season. All five can just ask Cam Newton how quick NFL defenses can adjust from year to year.

My suggestion is to not bank on any of the five from being your no questions asked number one fantasy football starter from day one in 2013.

Ranked from highest to lowest in order I believe they’ll finish statistically, with current value factored in as well

1. Andrew Luck
Luck made rookie mistakes mentally last year with his arm, but he had the best quarter to quarter progression of any of the rookie quarterbacks last year. The Colts never really held him down with play call management, and you would expect the Colts to compliment him a bit more with the running game this season.

2. RG3
There is a lot to be seen from RG3 from a health standpoint once he takes the field. Nowadays though a young athlete that trains at maximum capacity for rehabilitation you can’t expect the old adage, “it takes two years” to come back to full strength. Athletes are defeating science more and more and defeating that old adage. RG3 has already proven before at Baylor that a serious knee injury will not hurt his psyche. He understands the ins and outs of the game of football. With a quiet confidence amongst his head coach, Mike Shanahan, the two should develop nicely in year two

3. Ryan Tannehill
This is a surprise for most to see Tannehill sitting in the middle of the pack of the second year quarterbacks (besides Kap). Unlike the other four quarterbacks, Tannehill was held in check for the most part by the play calling of the Dolphins. They utilized their whole tandem of running backs, and game managed Tannehill. Expect Coach Philbin to trust his quarterback even more in year two. I honestly believe Tannehill was ready for more advanced play calling last season. These two have a history dating back to Tannehill’s college days. Miami might shock some people this year in the AFC East.

4. Russ Wilson
Wilson had the Tim Tebow factor as a rookie last season, in which he just found a way to win certain games. The Seahawks never appeared completely out of the game no matter what the circumstances were. Yet, I never became fully impressed with Wilson until the playoffs last year. In the regular season his quarterback play was erratic at times, and overvalued. Seattle has a great team overall and I think that bolsters Wilson’s presence on the team. An injury to big play receiver Percy Harvin does not bode well for Wilson either. I expect the competitive pressure from the rest of the division to hurt Wilson’s play as the season stretches beyond September.

5. Colin Kaepernick
He might prove me completely wrong, but I just do not like the sample size of Kaepernick’s games from a season ago. A full season of how he played and I’d be sky high on him like everyone else. His playoff performances were astounding as well, but the bulk of his success come on the read option. Defenses will figure that out to a better degree than the tactic the Ravens used in hitting Kaepernick. Speed has always been taken away from great running quarterbacks at some point (Vick, Newton, etc). Especially when it comes to the amount of volume break away runs over the course of a game. Kaepernick is going to need to do more with his arm than his legs in his second year as starter. I do not believe from a fantasy standpoint and his current projections that he will be able to live up to that billing.

By Zack Cimini

Common place trends of consistency are hard to break. Whether it’s a personal routine all the way into the realm of sports, consistency is an after thought after awhile. For NFL fans and fantasy football enthusiasts that is what we have come to expect with the likes of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Could the 2013 season be the year they officially come down to Earth?

Last year was the year of fantasy quarterbacks and wide receivers getting drafted in advance of running backs. We all know the reason for that, and that was because of how much value had shifted to those positions in terms of weekly fantasy points.

Teams are airing out the football, and that’s not going to change. For the most part Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have been as easy as a top breed horse to pen in at the finish line. Their names equate to success. Luckily for them even though they’ve never garnered top tier running backs (Peyton did with M. Faulk), they’ve been protected very well with great offensive lines.

Besides both missing a full year with separate injuries, they’ve been reliable on the field for seasons upon seasons from a health standpoint.

Sooner or later though age hits all the great quarterbacks, and when it does it appears rapidly. Not over the course of a game or two, it just happens. Think back to the late careers of Jim Kelly, Steve Young (even before his concussion), Troy Aikman, etc. It appeared Manning was heading that way last season with how his arm would diminish in certain quarters. That was early in the season though and he was able to improve his arm strength as the season went on. That or Head coach John Fox realized he needed to run the football more and mix up the amount of demand on Peyton’s arm.

Facts are facts. Peyton Manning is 37 and Tom Brady is 36. No athlete is susceptible to bypassing the father of time. I believe both of these quarterbacks are going to have down trending years from where they are projected statistically this season. They’ll both have their fair share of rise of abnormal games in terms of what we are used to seeing from them.

For Brady the excuses will be thrown out there that he does not have Wes Welker anymore, and he lost his go-to targets at tight end in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. That will be the early part of the season. As the season progresses it’ll surface more to reality, that Brady has played in this league for a helluva long time.

Think back to how long that Super Bowl against the Rams truly was, or even the time frame when Brady took over Drew Bledsoe’s position. It’s truly amazing he has performed to this caliber for so long.

For Peyton Manning his regression has from regular season to the playoffs has been a trend for plenty of years. It’s this season that it will trickle into the regular season.

For all you over/under takers out there, I’d take the under on both the Broncos (11.5) and Patriots (11.5) win totals for the 2013 season.

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Journeymen football players often have not fared well in the twilight years of their career—especially at quarterback. Many prognosticators have tabbed quarterback Carson Palmer as a bottom of the pack quarterback in terms of fantasy sports. This could very well be true. I wouldn’t go that far to rank him with the likes of Jake Locker and Matt Flynn.

Palmer’s career has a chance to be revived somewhat in the desert of Glendale, Arizona. Lets not forget just a few short seasons ago he was everyone’s favorite fantasy backup quarterback. That’s an exaggeration but he was a guy that if you grabbed yourself a sure-fire starting quarterback (Brees, Brady, etc) you had no problem putting him in for a bye week cover or if an injury presented itself.

As a Bengal his career had many plights at the end of it, including a bitter argument with the front office on wanting a trade demand. They let Palmer reside in California before finally trading him away to the Oakland Raiders. His time in Oakland was basically another gap stop as his year and a half fared about as well as every quarterback in Oakland’s has since Rich Gannon.

Now though, Palmer is in Arizona where he gets to be surrounded by a team that on the surface has the talent to produce. They’ve just been missing that key ingredient since Kurt Warner left, and that is a quarterback. The Max Hall’s, Matt Leinart’s, John Skelton’s, Kevin Kolb’s, and Derek Anderson’s of the world are not going to get it done.

When Anquan Boldin left Arizona for Baltimore many were stunned that the Cardinals didn’t want to pay him enough. Future trangressions since he left all speak for themselves on how the Cardinals front office handles key ingredients. They seemed to have lost their will to attain a quarterback after Kurt Warner left.
Maybe they thought bringing in a veteran such as Derek Anderson would be good enough with Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver. Who knows. In the end the quarterback experiments have turned out to be by far the worst in football over the last three seasons.

Carson steps in with the lowest of expectations possible. Arizona is in a division that many believe will be a runaway between the 49ers and Seahawks with the possibility of the Rams being a threat as well. Arizona does not even cross the minds of consideration in the division.

Arizona’s defense has hung in there for three years with their poor offensive situations. Almost every win the Cardinals pulled out was because of their defense. Add to the equation a veteran quarterback and an offensive line that should be average or better, and the Cardinals can make some noise in this division.

Lets put it this way, there is not another team that is expected to finish last in their division that has a higher ceiling in the NFL.

Deep down Carson Palmer knows this is a chance for him to make a huge statement to resurrect his career, and say officially “I told you so” to the Bengals organization. Carson’s arm has stayed strong even as a Raider. He threw over 4000 yards with 22 touchdowns last season, and had thirteen the year prior in only nine games.

Carson has had a solid camp thus far, and I expect him to carry things over into preseason action. The feed the hunger campaign is about to start in Arizona, and this one involves the starving of pass receptions to Larry Fitzgerald last season. For a player of his caliber to have only four touchdowns and 800 yards, speaks volumes to how poor the Cardinals quarterback situation truly was last season.

Palmer will get the ball to Fitzgerald. The emergence of second year receiver Michael Floyd and veteran Andre Roberts should give Carson Palmer the best set of receivers he has had since Chad Johnson,TJ Housh, and Chris Henry.

Keep in mind Palmer is just 33 years old. A few years younger than both Brady and Manning, and a full year younger than Drew Brees. He may seem too old but he has a few solid years left in the tank if the Cardinals can protect him. I’m not buying into the all out full hype of Russ Wilson and Colin Kaepernick’s first year success. This Arizona team can make some divisional noise as well.

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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland

The first month of the season flew by. October is a month where we will find out which teams are the real deal, and others that were over hyped. From a quarterback standpoint there are many stars that need to rectify some woeful performances to get their fantasy GM’s back in the running. Barring injury those studs drafted in round one will get their teams back in the thick of things to attempt to sneak into the fantasy playoffs. What are their true separations in terms of fantasy with the starts of Joe Flacco, RG3, and others?

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Mike Vick
3. Tom Brady
4. Matt Ryan
5. Joe Flacco
6. Drew Brees
7. RG3
8. Philip Rivers
9. Cam Newton
10. Alex Smith
11. Peyton Manning
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Schaub
14. Eli Manning
15. Christian Ponder
16. Andy Dalton
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Kevin Kolb
19. Russell Wilson
20. Sam Bradford
21. Andrew Luck
22. Brandon Weeden
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick
24. Blaine Gabbert
25. Ryan Tannehill
26. Matt Hasselbeck
27. Matt Cassel
28. Mark Sanchez

Questions @Cimini on Twitter

Here are the top twenty fantasy relevant quarterbacks for week four. Aaron Rodgers will finally make fantasy owners that drafted him with a top four pick extremely happy against the Saints. Joe Flacco will continue his hot start. A couple of tier two quarterbacks that will crack the top twelve this week will be Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Mike Vick’s struggles will continue. It will be interesting to see Andy Reid at the podium following Sunday Night’s game, and Monday afternoon once Vick struggles. Ryan Tannehill bottoms the list of the top twenty but I believe he will lead Miami to a quality victory on the road, to give the Cardinals their first loss of the season.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Eli Manning
4. Joe Flacco
5. Cam Newton
6. Matt Ryan
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick
9. Philip Rivers
10. Andy Dalton
11. Drew Brees
12. Peyton Manning
13. Josh Freeman
14. Tony Romo
15. Mike Vick
16. Matt Schaub
17 Matthew Stafford
18. Jay Cutler
19. Carson Palmer
20. Ryan Tannehill

Twitter Questions@Cimini
Points
1 Tom Brady Mid Twenties
2 Cam Newton Low Twenties
3 Drew Brees High Teens
4 Tony Romo High Teens
5 RG3 High Teens
6 Philip Rivers High Teens
7 Matt Stafford High Teens
8 Mike Vick Mid to High Teens
9 Ben Roethlisberger Mid to High Teens
10 Matt Ryan Mid to High Teens
11 Matt Cassel Mid to High Teens
12 Ryan Fitzpatrick Mid to High Teens
13 Peyton Manning Mid Teens
14 Joe Flacco Mid Teens
15 Alex Smith Mid Teens
16 Andrew Luck Mid Teens
17 Matt Schaub Mid Teens
18 Andy Dalton Low to Mid Teens
19 Blaine Gabbert Low to Mid Teens
20 Eli Manning Low to Mid Teens
21 Kevin Kolb Low to Mid Teens
22 Mark Sanchez Low Teens
23 Carson Palmer Low Teens
24 Josh Freeman Low Teens
25 Christian Ponder Low Teens
The rest twelve points or under