Follow@cimini

Cunningham’s effortless 98′ season, quickly vanished in 1999

On this father’s day I thought what better day to release my first installment of fantasy quarterback rankings. The same veteran quarterbacks are expected to lead the way in 2014. Much like in 1999, another year dominated by expected veteran quarterbacks, is there a steep decline coming?

In that year prolific quarterbacks suddenly became too old in a span of weeks. Quarterbacks like Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, and a few others saw the door on their careers suddenly come to a screeching halt. Marino’s was by age, but Aikman, Young, and Cunningham had injuries that ravaged their old bodies.

Keep in mind Randall Cunningham was coming off a career year in 1998 with an aerial assault weekly with Randy Moss and Cris Carter. It’s still truly one of the most free flowing seasons a quarterback has had in the last 25 years. Each game Cunningham seemed to be connected.

It was a tough time in the NFL watching the old quarterbacks exit and a new breed of quarterbacks enter. Many failed, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown, and a long list of others.

Keep that in mind when drafting the top veteran quarterbacks with high picks. None are invincible. Here is my first rankings of quarterbacks for the 2014 season.

1. Colin Kaepernick
I fully expect Kaepernick to be outrank current prognostications with this forth coming season. People and fantasy owners expected too much out of the young quarterback last year. Now with a full year under his belt, Kaepernick is going to demonstrate why the 49ers are poised to take that next step. His blazing speed is not going anywhere. The true surge of his fantasy value will come via his improvement of studying the 49ers playbook and working with his wide receivers.

2. Aaron Rodgers
From a handicapping standpoint I profiled that Rogers and the Packers could be in trouble this season. Many are high on them, but I believe they will fall short again. From a fantasy football standpoint there is no doubt that Rodgers will continue to excel; barring any injuries.

3. Andrew Luck
This should be the season that Luck supplants the veteran trio that has been dominating the top five of fantasy football (Brees, Brady, Manning). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts unveil more designated rollouts and quarterback keepers. He has the legs to cause havoc in proper open space. The ceiling still hasn’t been met from Luck, and likely won’t for a few more seasons.

4. Peyton Manning
I have my doubts with Manning this season. He has now completed two seasons as a Bronco after a full year off from surgery. People have quickly forgotten how much rehab Manning had to endure to get back on the field. In fact he had a return stretch where it looked like his arm may never get back to full strength (3 INT’s vs Falcons, etc.) But he shook that rust off and hasn’t looked back. He still has the mental fortitude to shape wins for the Broncos, but has the script been written by the Seahawks? They took away the quick check downs and that was it for Denver. More and more teams may start being more aggressive with an aging Manning.

5. Drew Brees
Will the Saints keep marching in? I was impressed with Brees last season more than any other top performing quarterback. The reason for that was because the Saints had an unusual unreliable offensive system. Whether it was at running back or even receiver, Drew Brees really did not have that main weapon besides Jimmy Graham. Graham truly made the difference in his season. Expect Brees to hold steady as a middle of the pack top ten fantasy quarterback.

6. Nick Foles
Chip Kelly made one of the more gutsy moves last year by pulling the plug on Mike Vick. Many coaches would have let a quarterback controversy roll over into the next season. Instead Vick was allowed to sign as a free agent elsewhere, and the Eagles didn’t have to fork out a heavy amount of money on a quarterback. They know who their starter is in Foles. Many want to label Foles as a system quarterback—so be it. He’ll keep getting the job done.

7. Tom Brady
Brady has kept himself in outstanding shape to further prolong his career the proper way. Some keep themselves in shape to just get by, but Brady believes he is in the best shape of his career. Judging by his body weight he looks to be telling the truth. Something Donovan McNabb could not accomplish in his mid 30’s. Brady is no longer that weekly dominating fantasy quarterback. He’ll have a few duds of low yardage or low touchdown numbers. He keeps his top ten ranking with his steadiness of reliability.

8. Cam Newton
Newton somehow dodged a fantasy bust label with a strong finish to the season. Through the first half of the year though he was looking like a nightmare in Charlotte. Rumors were swirling that the Panthers could be looking for the next option at quarterback along with axing Ron Rivera. They turned things around as a team and did so with a very basic offense. It’ll be interesting to see if they keep things going in that direction. Newton is a borderline top twelve to fourteen quarterback with his arm, but his legs catapult his worth as a top ten quarterback.

9. RG3
The Redskins ran a gauntlet attack last season. Their wide open offense did not produce wins, but kept fantasy owners happy. RG3 has been away from the spotlight this offseason, unlike last year. Hopefully his focus has not deviated. He has the talent to rise above his critics and respond similar to the way Lebron James did in Miami. The Redskins decision to rest RG3 the last two games could prove to be one of the best moves not getting constant media attention.

10. Matt Ryan
Ryan had one of those inevitable seasons that all quarterbacks have happen. Atlanta had been side stepping issues at running back for too long. The addition of Steven Jackson just was not enough. The year was further compounded by endless injuries to the Falcons receivers. A bounce back season should be in-store in the toughest division in football for Matty ice. DeVaunte Smith could end up being a welcome addition for Matt.

Others
11. Russ Wilson
12. Philip Rivers
13. Tony Romo
14. Ryan Tannehill
15. Matt Stafford
16. Jay Cutler
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Johnny Manziel
19. Andy Dalton
20. Sam Bradford
21. Alex Smith
22. Joe Flacco
23. Eli Manning
24. Carson Palmer
25. EJ Manuel
26. Jake Locker
27. Ryan Fitzpatrick
28. Josh McCown
29. Mike Vick
30. Matt Schaub
31. Matt Cassel
32. Chad Henne
32.

Follow@cimini

It’s mid-June, which means optimism for fantasy football drafts is right around the corner. Commissioners are already loading your inbox’s and sending you text messages about joining their league. Do yourself a favor and commit to the three leagues now, and tune out the bombardment of invitations that will come all summer.

Be sure to also ask a question on the scoring system of your possible league. If your not a fan of inflated points than be selective when giving the ok to join a league.

For PPR leagues that are out there you need to be dialed in for guys that are going to catch the football. It can make the world of difference in your week to week score, and ending up with a crushing defeat.

Here is an early look at backs that should end the season as a top ten PPR running back.

Darren Sproles
Sproles was already a dynamic force as the Saints cog out of the backfield. He has aged a bit and is on his third team in as many years. But Sproles still has the wheels to capitalize in the Eagles fast and furious offense. This is an Oregon blended Chip Kelly move. Sproles will torcher opposing fantasy football PPR leagues, while remaining as a likely third or fourth back in standard leagues.

Matt Forte
Forte is that back nearing that questionable phase of his career. He has hit bumps before in his career but somehow has maintained solid fantasy status. One of the main reasons he has been able to do so is because of the new system he is in. The Bears have a more open attack which is allowing for Forte to get out in open space. You have to wonder if the end is coming for him in a Bears uniform though. But for 2014 he is one of the few backs you can count on for duel credit as a rusher and pass catcher.

Le’Veon Bell
Bell was a back that drove some owners to the postseason and drove others nuts. He is a young back though that will be propelled to an even higher status this season as a Steeler. He still needs to find his balance statistically on a weekly basis before being rendered as a high value standard fantasy back. For PPR leagues though he is cemented as a worthy starter.

Others:

Jamaal Charles
His quarterback is one of the highest check down passers in the game in Alex Smith.

Reggie Bush
Bush remains on a team that will continue to utilize his unique skillset.

Danny Woodhead
Expect regression from last year’s out of nowhere performance from Woodhead. He’ll still have solid value though.

Chris Johnson
His new situation should refuel some fantasy value to Johnson.

Ray Rice
The Ravens won a Super Bowl based on Rice’s ability to create out of the backfield. Two years later and there are some big time questions lurking on his fantasy football projections.

Giovanni Bernard
Bernard is the new head honcho set to take the throne over older speed backs listed above.

Pierre Thomas
Thomas no longer has the high value he once held as a standard fantasy back. The value he does hold is strictly in PPR leagues.

AP Photo

Follow@cimini

What Calvin Johnson did in 2013 was as ridiculous a season a wide receiver can have. The closest that I can remember having a season like that was David Boston’s lone breakout year, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss’s 1998 season. For Boston and Moss that ceiling would never be replicated to that extreme. Owens was able to still be a fantasy touchdown machine for a string of years.

Owners know Johnson’s last season is long gone old news. His numbers almost single handily gave fantasy owners the gateway to a fantasy playoff birth. By having him on their team owners were able to count themselves an easy double digit checkoff week to week. And this wasn’t the normal double digit variety some receivers posted. Sky high results in standard leagues he sometimes posted high twenty to low thirty results. I won’t even step into the realm of his PPR results.

Quick trigger fantasy owners are going to be absent minded in putting any thought into Johnson’s 2014 potential season. He is megatron after all. Results don’t need to be thought upon.

Well maybe they should. As noted earlier athletes that have a premium season tend to regress some. At the position of receiver any type of downgrade can put you in the mix of ten to fifteen receivers. There just is not as high of a gap between receivers like there is in other football positions.

That has to be a factor when deciding on drafting Calvin Johnson.

Another is Johnson faced the poorest division in terms of NFL secondaries last year. Chicago and Green Bay were banged up all season in the secondary, and Minnesota’s young cornerbacks were going through growing pains. Of those nearly 1500 receiving yards, Johnson also faced the Cowboys for an all world game of nearly 300 yards receiving and the Steelers for nearly 200.

Both of those defenses were also torched consistently. To the point that quarterbacks such as Andy Dalton and every NFC East quarterback had extreme success.

Take away those key signature games and fill them in with average Johnson receiving yards, and he would have likely finished around 1150 yards receiving.

That puts him still as an elite receiver but not by a huge stretch in terms of yardage. Johnson’s never ending value comes in the area of touchdowns. He can be banked upon to reach double digit touchdowns year after year. His size and uncanny leaping ability is undeniable.

But will the rest of the NFC North finally catch up to Johnson and limit his consistent big numbers versus them? And will Johnson’s matchups in the AFC and non-division NFC teams gear up to stop him better?

It’s all a higher probability than last season.

This isn’t a bust label on Calvin Johnson. Rather it is a cautious high first round alert. Fantasy owners are becoming more unconscious with the new norm of drafting a non-running back in round one. Using that train of thought can come back to bite you in a quick hurry.

Follow@cimini

Watching the Dolphins last year as a fan you should of turned games off in the fourth quarter. An average season turned on several fourth quarters in which they let leads vanish. It was as if Miami could not hit that next gear offensively to over take a game. Playing it safe could work for three quarters before the opposing team would outplay the Dolphins.

Miami had to experience the dramatic losses they did if they wanted to entrust Ryan Tannehill as their future quarterback. Young starting quarterbacks are bound to make mistakes, and Tannehill made his share of alarming ones. By holding the football too long he had costly fumbles, including one against the Buffalo Bills, that would have netted Miami a win.

This will be a telling year for the Dolphins to see if they can entrust Tannehill 100 percent as the main signal caller. At times he would play outstanding. Delivering laser throws as he did in an early win at Indianapolis. Consistency just wasn’t up to par of a starting quarterback. You can say his play was comparable to old starting quarterback Chad Henne. Games mixed in with promise just weren’t enough to offset the common results.

The surprising early start from the Dolphins won’t shock anybody like it did in 2013. Teams will be prepared to rattle Ryan Tannehill and see if he has improved on his check downs throws. An area Miami hopes to see a boost in is in their running game. By adding Knowshown Moreno Miami hopes they can deliver the same triple threat the Broncos were able to emulate. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are still young backs but have shown they need a veteran starter ahead of them.

From a fantasy standpoint, Tannehill ranks as a high teen to low 20’s quarterback. For now. At times he has shown he can be a backup fantasy quarterback in situational matchups. The opportunity to rise higher is there for Tannehill if he is ready. I’m not sure he is just yet. I’d expect Miami to ease him into the 2014 season, and continue to play the ball control style they exhibited in 2013. But if the Dolphins are hovering around .500 again they are going to need to flip the switch with Tannehill.

This is the point of the season that owners may be able to gamble on Tannehill more as a fantasy option. Miami will test their investments worth and see if Tannehill can lead them beyond a mediocre season.

Follow@cimini

Aaron Rodgers has lit up the NFL and fantasy football world year after year. Any fantasy football stat tracker on a Sunday will showcase Rodgers points moving upward like a hot stock on Wall Street. He has earned the top spot as best quarterback in football and therefore fantasy football.

Age has a lot to do with why people will still draft Rodgers without thinking twice. His counterparts that still rank high in fantasy football efficiency are several years older than him. Players such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and even Tony Romo.

Hot stocks in Wall Street are the ones that can bite you in a hurry. Aaron Rodgers has some gray areas that are evident but not being discussed.

For one he is a quarterback that has never had a proper running game. The Packers have made things work with a plethora of below average running backs. That has partly had to do with injuries occurring at a high rate. Things may be looking upward in that department with the combo of Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin. But will either or be a viable option consistently?

Another area being over looked is the tenure between Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has been the Packers head coach since 2007. There is no reason to consider firing McCarthy, but there is a common link between coaches and starting quarterbacks. They don’t go hand in hand over a long period of time without failure.

Look at over the course of even the last ten to fifteen years and you’ll notice the regression amongst good coaches and great quarterbacks. At some point or another that coaches system breaks down and effects the quarterback on the field.

That hasn’t happened to a noticeable effect yet, but you can see teams are better prepared for the Packers aerial attack than in years past. It’s similar to the way teams have been able to limit the Saints offense when big games occur. You’ll notice that since the Packers and Saints Super Bowl wins their playoff success and regular season success against winning teams has waned.

The biggest area to cast a shadow of doubt with Rodgers is his injury history. Injuries are so common now in fantasy football that some aren’t even factoring it in to their drafts. Their idea is to secure themselves for the inevitable with depth.

Well just like a scout team and personnel in major sports, drafting a player requires thinking of all possibilities.

Rodgers is coming off a year in which he missed six games due to injury. It was the first time he has missed more than one game in a season. In prior years he has only missed an individual game. Some would say back then he shook off injuries a week or two earlier than he should have to get back on the field.

Either way he has shown a history of injury concerns.

Rodgers time as an elite fantasy quarterback is not coming to an end. I’d just be a little bit leery drafting him without a proper top notch backup fantasy quarterback. If you’re in a top spot and someone wants to trade up to get Rodgers, maybe that’s a safer option.

Follow@cimini

Tenure as a top fantasy football running back is a long gone signature to fantasy football. Back in the 1990’s and even early 2000’s the way a running back was handled is completely different from today. Coaches use to burn their star running back year after year, and made fantasy owners quite happy. Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Ricky Waters, etc. all enjoyed a top tier track record as fantasy backs.

Then things began to change in the 2000’s. The size of athletes grew, along with intense training, salary cap restrictions, and a plethora of other dynamics. Teams began to realize they had to shift their player priority plans in two to three year spans, instead of long term. Relying on a running back on the downtrend of his career just was not feasible anymore.

Teams began to implore better analytics to achieve youthful running backs for a lower dollar amount. Essentially they had a backup plan in their backfield, and in turn could keep their backfield competitive with proper rotation.

The period where fantasy owners were leery on how to draft in a dual backfield system has been over. Fantasy owners have adjusted and many could argue that this day and age of fantasy football there is better depth to be had. Before owners could win the league based on having two to three of the top players. Now you truly have to grind out your roster top to bottom on a week to week basis.

Still a draft can be ruined if your top pick(s) end up the IR report for a long duration of the season or hit an abrupt fantasy wall.

There is no other position that has a free fall at the top position like a running back. An elite receiver or quarterback can sustain their careers into their 30’s. At running back that wall can come abruptly well before the age of 30 or shortly thereafter.

Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LT, Ray Rice, Brian Westbrook and countless others have deteriorated in one season right before our eyes. It’s like watching a stock downtrend month to month after a strong run. As a fantasy owner you think the back will bounce back any week, but it just doesn’t happen. The next season that back is properly ranked with a red down arrow next to his name. His stock is still sinking and his backup is gaining on him via the front office and coaching staff.

That’s the business of the NFL.

In Philadelphia, Eagles fans have become accustomed to top backs that fizzle quickly. Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and Ricky Waters all saw their time come and go.

McCoy is just 25 but not a young 25. He has been a strong back in this league for a good five years now. Unheard of for backs his age. He also has been the type of back that carries the load running and out of the backfield. Andy Reid was one of the few coaches that didn’t mind utilizing his backs at a high rate, and was always infatuated with backs that could catch the ball. Chip Kelly may even hold this area of football higher than Reid.

You wouldn’t expect a tremendous blip from McCoy this year barring injury, but a dip is possible. Sooner or later McCoy is going to slowly lose one of his dominant traits. It may just be this season. Draft cautiously.