Rankings

Back Most Affected by Dual Backfield System

Wednesday, 29 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Many fantasy owners are enamored by Reggie Bush heading into the 2012 season. As a Dolphin last year he finally had the type of success many thought he would getting drafted into the NFL. For a guy that has not had near the success in his first five seasons in New Orleans, many are wondering what will happen this year as a Dolphin.

While in New Orleans after failed chances at being the featured back, New Orleans decided to relegate his role to sort of a decoy. A few carries here and there and try to spring him out for quick passes to let him utilize his speed. When his free agency came along, the Saints did not feel the value offered by his agent was true to what he brings on the field.

Miami though decided they would try to re-tool and utilize him differently. Up until week thirteen of last year it looked as if Bush was going to have another sub-par season. He only had one game rushing over 100 yards up until that point, and Miami was content at using Daniel Thomas just as much as they were Bush.

Thomas was banged up though out the season and that’s when the door opened a bit for Bush. Weeks 13-16 Bush ran wild and totaled 519 yards rushing including his monster game against the Buffalo Bills. Those yardage numbers were almost equal his season total through twelve games. So was the finish to Bush’s season in 2011 an aberration or can it carry over to 2012?

Even though Miami has a new coaching staff, it has serious holes offensively. A rookie quarterback and a depleted receiving group will force Miami to run the football as much as last season. The fact remains to be seen though if Miami will give more carries to Daniel Thomas over Bush. Thomas is more of the prototypical back and had success as a rookie last season.

Bush will see his carries head backward from the twenty carries a game he received weeks thirteen through sixteen. Miami also drafted rookie running back Lamar Miller in the fourth round. He should not pose a threat to either Thomas or Bush. It’s more of a pick to secure the backfield due to Thomas’s injury history and Bush’s size.

I would not consider Bush as a weekly fantasy starter. He can be a RB3 with possible starts based on Miami’s consistency with Bush. The question for Bush owners should be how many fantasy points can they expect from Bush with around twelve carries a game. That is what he averaged the first eleven games of 2011. Thomas will figure to get near fifteen carries a game.

This is what makes it tricky for Bush owners, because Bush can be treated like a hot jump shooter in professional basketball. Once on the field, if his first five to seven carries are explosive and getting the offense going, Miami will likely feed him an extra amount of carries over Thomas. If he is not getting the necessary yards than Miami will pound it with Thomas.

It’s an unusual circumstance that does not occur with most backs around the NFL. Bush should average six to eight fantasy points per game in standard leagues, and ten to twelve in PPR leagues. Expect around 750 yards rushing and five touchdowns on the year.

Player Profile: Robert Turbin

Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

It’s been quite some time since a rookie running back had a true fantasy impact in year one. Last season many were expecting Mark Ingram to be just that as a New Orleans Saint. Instead the tandem system and Ingram’s ineffectiveness lessened his work load as the season progressed. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are both more fantasy friendly than Ingram.

The rookie that stirred a frenzy off the waiver wire last season was DeMarco Murray. He burst onto the scene because of opportunity and now is a top tier fantasy back. It all opened up for Murray because of injuries in front of him, and the fact the Cowboys had let Marion Barber and Tashard Choice go.

Who will it be this year that surprises? It may not be for a significant amount of games like Murray, but Seattle’s rookie Robert Turbin is already on many fantasy radar watch lists after his preseason. With the Seahawks letting workmanlike beast Marshawn Lynch rest in the preseason, Turbin has received the majority of carries and looked impressive.

The fourth round pick out of Utah State might be the most physically imposing running back in the NFL already. His physique particularly in his arms are comparable to former Arizona Cardinal/Tampa Bay running back Michael Pittman. Statistically Turbin has been solid from game one in the preseason, and last week against Kansas City he had over 90 yards rushing.

Pete Carroll sort of shares the same values as Mike Shanahan. If you’re producing he is not afraid to make a move. No matter the salary of the player that is supposed to have that position. It creates a continual reevaluation of roster positions even during the season.

Drafting in your fantasy leagues, Robert Turbin was already an automatic handcuff for Marshawn Lynch. A year ago Lynch received the majority of carries as the Seahawks did not have a back behind him capable of handling duties. That will change with Turbin, who should get five to seven carries a game to spell Lynch.

This could boost Lynch’s fantasy impact. He will be fresher over the course of the season and not overworked as he was a year ago.

Lynch has missed preseason action with a back injury that Seattle has said is minor. In fact Lynch has practiced in the majority of Seahawks practices. An area everyone knows Lynch is on a short leash is his off the field issues. It was one of the main reasons why Buffalo decided to let him go, and he has already had a few issues as a Seahawk. One more offense and a suspension or upper management move could come.

The style that Lynch runs with is not one of longevity for a running back. If Turbin was not handcuffed by Marshawn Lynch owners and you have roster spots to tinker with, pick up Turbin and sit him on your bench.

Bench players do not necessarily always have to be integral weekly parts of your fantasy team. If you are overloaded it just makes decisions harder on Sundays when you’re trying to fulfill your starters. Bench points you see can be frustrating and cause you a loss from the wrong insertion. So it’s always good to have a player or two with upside that won’t cause you headaches weekly.

Wide Receiver Rankings 8/27/12

Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Hut, hut, when that quarterback receives the hike, he is not turning to hand that football off as much as ten years ago. It’s a fast past league now, and in order to do that successfully with points on the board, it needs to come through the air. Here is the first installment of wide receiver rankings heading into the last week of preseason.

1. Calvin Johnson- Speed, height, freakish athleticism, and can out jump anyone in the secondary. Randy Moss when he had Randall Cunningham, except Johnson possesses better ability in crowds to corral the football.

2. Larry Fitzgerald- People want to lower his ranking based on the Cardinals quarterback situation. Just look at Fitz’s last two seasons and he still has flourished with poor quarterbacks. John Skelton and Kevin Kolb both performed last year. Whoever wins the job is going to perform better than a year ago. Fitz is the hardest working player in the game, and will continue to produce no matter who is throwing the football.

3. Brandon Marshall- Awfully high you say. Marshall has had the quietest off-season in recent memory. No antics in practice, selfish pouting, or off the field issues. He is revived with his old quarterback, and on an offense that should be potent. Behind Johnson, Marshall is the best height to speed receiver in the league. His Pro Bowl performance was not a fluke, and he will be targeted by Jay Cutler early and often.

4. Roddy White- Everyone is talking about last years quarterback class and this year quarterback class. Refocus back to Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Both seem ready to bust out the gate and have career years. Why not? Roddy White is an outstanding receiver. With Ryan gaining confidence White could have a Victor Cruz type of year from 2011.

5. Steve Smith- Too high again you may think. Smith is the Hines Ward of receivers nowadays. He has the tenacity and toughness and is just a competitor on every play. Cam Newton is going to progress and that means more deep balls to Smith. He will shine in consecutive years with Newton.

6. AJ Green- Last year in the beginning of the season everyone was wowed by Andy Dalton’s readiness for the NFL. The pinpoint answer to that was AJ Green. He got behind teams secondaries with such ease that even Tim Tebow could of hit him. With an off-season to sharpen his route running and add some weight to his frame, Green should be a gold mine for fantasy owners once again.

7. Andre Johnson- It’s always worrisome when an athlete starts a trend with injuries. Will they go away? Johnson would likely be ranked second if it were not for his history. Even if he plays twelve to thirteen games he has the capability of putting together a top fifteen fantasy season. Houston is a team that’s primed to supplant the New England Patriots. In order to do so they’ll need Johnson all season.

8. Eric Decker- He is just the perfect type of receiver for Peyton Manning. Last year reports were that Decker was shining in practice. With the Tebow offense of a year ago, DeMaryius Thomas was the main guy because of his height. Quick throws were easy for him to corral in, and risky throws were to his advantage as well with his size. Decker though can run the type of routes that meshes with veteran Peyton Manning. Connections with Manning have always produced great fantasy seasons. Marvin Harrison, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Reggie Wayne, etc. The type of preseason Decker has had it’s a no brainer that it will continue in the regular season.

9. Torrey Smith- I profiled in an article a few weeks ago that Joe Flacco is ready for his breakout season. Lets face it, the Baltimore passing offense has been pedestrian every season. There one of the few teams that likes to run the ball continuously and rely on their defense. Their defense is aging and the Ravens know come playoff time, they’re going to need to score points to advance. Even with Baltimore’s toned down offense it still has been fantasy friendly for receivers. Imagine this season with more targets his way what Smith is going to do.

10. Wes Welker- Brandon Lloyd is going to hurt Welker’s value a bunch. Josh McDaniels has a chemistry with Lloyd and that will transfer over to play calling and on the field results. Not to mention that Tom Brady is going to continue eyeballing his dynamic tight end duo. Expect for Welker to be a high yardage guy and low touchdown performer ala Keenan McCardell. He is ranked this high now based on last season and not going to crazy on lowering him. I expect him to be a high teen receiver by the end of the season.

11. Jordy Nelson
12. DeSean Jackson
13. Hakeem Nicks
14. Greg Jennings
15. Victor Cruz
16. Stevie Johnson
17. Mike Wallace
18. Julio Jones
19. Dez Bryant
20. Marques Colston
21. Dwayne Bowe
22. Vincent Jackson
23. Justin Blackmon
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Reggie Wayne
26. Anquan Boldin
27. Brandon Lloyd
28. Antonio Brown
29. Miles Austin
30. Percy Harvin
31. Santonio Holmes
32. Kenny Britt
33. Darrius Heyward-Bey
34. Michael Crabtree
35. Malcolm Floyd
36. Davone Bess
37. Lance Moore
38. Mike Williams
39. Pierre Garcon
40. Sidney Rice
41. Santana Moss
42. Robert Meachem
43. Randy Moss
44. Brandon Lafell
45. Demaryius Thomas
46. Kendall Wright
47. David Nelson
48. Titus Young
49. James Jones
50. Nate Washington
51. Austin Collie
52. Jonathan Baldwin
53. Stephen Hill
54. Greg Little
55. Laurent Robinson
56. Danny Amendola
57. Denarius Moore
58. Nate Burleson
59. Michael Floyd
60. Brian Hartline

Good Decision By Cowboys

Monday, 27 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

If you own a police scanner in the NFL off-season you can roam the frequencies and like catching a fish you’re bound to hear about an NFL player getting arrested. Years ago media outlets would drag out initial reports on just about any athlete. Now it’s usually just a headline flasher and quick part of the news and notes segment.

It’s too common these days and NFL teams typically have run out of patience with athletes and arrests. Roger Goodell has a strict policy in place, and teams have clauses to protect themselves now. In certain instances though, athletes with high potential still outweigh waiting for the athlete to stack more newsworthy issues or live out his contract.

Dallas of the 1990’s know all too well about off the field issues with players. The organization took a proactive route and told Bryant not only do we employ you at the practice facilities, but were going to enlist a set of rules for you to abide to off the field. No more saying if you’re in an instance and need help, here is an immediate contact number. Bryant’s shown that he is still immature and needs the guidance of the organization to prevent him from straying into trouble.

The list of things Dallas has put into place is not abnormal. Rules such as not going to strip clubs or clubs is promoted by head coaches especially in training camp. Young athletes that think they’re invincible though and can not avoid their old friends egging them on, are going to continually get themselves put in ominous positions. The area that lets Cowboys fans know that Dallas is backing Bryant is by having full time security surround him.

Security is often looked at as preventing danger in front of bevies of people. The three security staff members that will surround Bryant though will do much more than that. They’ll develop a bond with Bryant and partake in many conversations with Bryant. Over time this will be more beneficial than any of the team rules listed on Bryant. The support of those guys around him all the time should finally develop the maturity people are seeking from Bryant.

Barring injury, this type of news boosts Bryant’s fantasy worth. Miles Austin’s hamstrings are red flags of an ongoing issue that will either limit his production or eventually cause him to miss more time in the regular season. Dallas is not going to slow down it’s passing game, and Bryant will be the main threat that benefits from this. His physical tools and youth are the reasons why he is still sporting a Cowboys uniform, and not on his way to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Will McGahee Surpass Last Years Numbers?

Sunday, 26 August, 2012

notjustagame23@gmail.com

An obvious standout from Denver’s success last season could be attributed to the defense. While the offense struggled to produce points, the defense kept the game close each and every week.

Tim Tebow produced heroics would of never been if not for the defense. The way Tebow performed last minute was like a shot clock winding down in the NBA, he did it when least expected. Denver decided to move forward from last years weekly cinderella showcase, and try and advance with future hall of fame quarterback, Peyton Manning.

Instantly fantasy owners are reveling at the fact of a healthy Peyton Manning. John Elway and the Denver Broncos fans are as well. There is no denying the accuracy and knowledge that Manning has behind center. He reads defenses better than any quarterback in the NFL at the line of scrimmage. His audibling is an innate ability that few quarterbacks can do with such high frequency.

Expecting Manning to comeback and shine like his glory days in Indianapolis is unrealistic. He has not thrown a meaningful throw in the NFL since the Colts playoff loss to the New York Jets in January of 2011. It has been a roller coaster experience just for Manning to get full clearance to return to where he is at now.

Owners and the football world know though that the Broncos passing offense will produce more results than a year ago. The Tebow offense was catered to limitations and that led to an offset of designed runs, and heavy carries for Willis McGahee.

Just because Manning will add to the offense does not lessen McGahee’s value. McGahee seems like he has been in the NFL forever. Everyone remembers his blownout knee while in college at Miami. Many did not expect him to recover in the way he did. Quietly in the NFL, McGahee has been very consistent. With Buffalo and several years in Baltimore.

When signed by the Denver Broncos he figured to be at his last pitstop before fading out of the NFL, like what happens to most veterans. Instead the Tebow factor probably helped boost his career. Denver needed to run the football and did so with McGahee, Moreno and Lance Ball. When Moreno went down, McGahee became the focal point for the Broncos running game, and shined like a number one fantasy back.

Will this year be differentfor McGahee? At age 30 you are not supposed to have strong seasons. Do not discount McGahee for the reason alone. Throughout his career he is one of few backs that did not get overworked on a yearly basis.

The duel backfield that fantasy owners started to dread a few years ago, has been apart of McGahee’s entire career. The most carries he ever had was his second year in Buffalo at 325. His carries have never been alarming, so his legs are still fresh to handle a solid workload, even at age 30.

With an added dimension of passin to the Broncos offense that should open thins up even more for McGahee. He hits the hole hard and has solid vision to gain extra yards even after contact. Knowshown Moreno is coming off his knee injury so he will not be a threat this season to have a major impact. Rookie Ronnie Hillman will likely be the back to gain some carries in Denver’s offense.

That will not hurt McGahee. He will be the red zone back, and get 65-70% of Denver’s rushing touchdowns this season. He was eight yards away last year of having a career high in rushing yards. Fantasy owners were likely frustrated with the fact he only reached paydirt four times last season.

You can say his touchodwns were “Tebowized”.

He likely would of had at least double his touchdowns or near ten if it was not for Tebow’s eleven rushing touchdowns. McGahee is devalued right now in fantasy drafts going as a low number two fantasy back. For those that draft a quarterback and wide receiver high, and believe they may be in trouble with McGahee as their second back should not fret. Double digit touchdowns should be an easily achievable number for McGahee and a back to back 1,000 yard season.

Cardinals Rookie Having Rough Preseason

Friday, 24 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The preseason is mainly a gauge for the team to analyze depth and workout kinks on the offense and defensive side of the football. While holes filled in special teams and proper depth position is an annual routine, there is another area coaches are looking to develop. Drafted rookies usually get a high percentage of looks and opportunities. Confidence in the preseason from rookies often will carry over to the regular season.

Cardinals rookie wide receiver Michael Floyd is not necessarily lighting up the statistics. In the hall of fame game he caught one ball for fifteen yards, followed up by week one of the preseason with a catch for three yards, zero catches week two, and last night two catches for sixteen yards. Fellow rookies, Kendall Wright and Justin Blackmon on the other hand have had high success and look much more ready to have a fantasy impact out the gate.

Fantasy owners are having a hard enough time figuring out where to rank Larry Fitzgerald in standard drafts, and how much to bid on him in auction drafts. Fitz has put up statistics though throughout his career with Max Hall, Matt Leinart, and both Skelton and Kolb. His statistics actually jumped with Skelton over Kolb last season, but both will get him the football.

A bright side to the fact that Floyd has had dismal preseason numbers is a breakdown of the Cardinals embarrassing quarterback battle. Before Kolb’s performance last night, neither Skelton or Kolb had thrown over the mid 30’s for yardage in the preseason. That’s correct, and this is coming from two guys competing for a starting job. You might not find another team in the NFL that’s had these type of preseason performances just with their backup quarterbacks.

There were some good things pointed out by the ESPN crew on what the Cardinals can do to move forward with the offense. Kevin Kolb is use to the quick pace from when he was in Houston. When Arizona used the hurry up offense he seemed to have a better grasp of the offense, and the team as a whole responded better. It may be just what he needs to get out of the funk he is in.

The Cardinals are going to have to announce the starter here in the next three to five days. Skelton was the favorite going into week three’s preseason game, but Kolb did outperform him Thursday. This could be a hot potato affair which Cardinals fans have become accustomed to since the Kurt Warner days.

That spells trouble for rookie Michael Floyd. If the Cardinals have any success offensively it will likely come through the ground attack. Touchdowns thrown through the air will be gobbled up by Larry Fitzgerald. Expecting either Kolb or Skelton to throw over twenty touchdowns even with sixteen games as a starter would be exceeding expectations.

Those hoping for Floyd to be a rookie sleeper better look the other way at Kendall Wright and Justin Blackmon. Floyd will have the worst numbers of the three, and should not be on any fantasy roster this season. Larry Fitzgerald is the only one worth eyeing, unless Kevin Kolb shows back to back games like his three games in Philadelphia than. Rookies like Floyd may scatter and tease you with a game or two here and there. The inconsistencies and headaches of knowing when that will occur will drive an owner crazy. Spare yourself.