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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Oakland

Here are week five’s rankings at running back. Keep an eye on how many carries Rashard Mendenhall receives this week from Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and team doctors have cleared his return and need him desperately as their running game has lacked effeciency. He is not included in this week’s top forty, but may make his way as a fantasy impactful player within the next two to four games.

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Arian Foster
3. Ray Rice
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Frank Gore
8. Willis McGahee
9. Trent Richardson
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Ryan Matthews
12. MJD
13. Michael Turner
14. Alfred Morris
15. Darren Sproles
16. Reggie Bush
17. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
18. Stevan Ridley
19. Cedric Benson
20. Chris Johnson
21. Ryan Williams
22. Fred Jackson
23. DeAngelo Williams
24. CJ Spiller
25. Steven Jackson
26. Daniel Thomas
27. Michael Bush
28. Donald Brown
29. Shonn Greene
30. Andre Brown
31. Isaac Redman
32. Jonathan Stewart
33. Jackie Battle
34. Jacquizz Rodgers
35. Ben Tate
36. Pierre Thomas
37. Ronnie Hillman
38. Kendall Hunter
39. Brandon Bolden
40. Lamar Miller

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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland

The first month of the season flew by. October is a month where we will find out which teams are the real deal, and others that were over hyped. From a quarterback standpoint there are many stars that need to rectify some woeful performances to get their fantasy GM’s back in the running. Barring injury those studs drafted in round one will get their teams back in the thick of things to attempt to sneak into the fantasy playoffs. What are their true separations in terms of fantasy with the starts of Joe Flacco, RG3, and others?

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Mike Vick
3. Tom Brady
4. Matt Ryan
5. Joe Flacco
6. Drew Brees
7. RG3
8. Philip Rivers
9. Cam Newton
10. Alex Smith
11. Peyton Manning
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Schaub
14. Eli Manning
15. Christian Ponder
16. Andy Dalton
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Kevin Kolb
19. Russell Wilson
20. Sam Bradford
21. Andrew Luck
22. Brandon Weeden
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick
24. Blaine Gabbert
25. Ryan Tannehill
26. Matt Hasselbeck
27. Matt Cassel
28. Mark Sanchez

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Here are the top twenty fantasy relevant quarterbacks for week four. Aaron Rodgers will finally make fantasy owners that drafted him with a top four pick extremely happy against the Saints. Joe Flacco will continue his hot start. A couple of tier two quarterbacks that will crack the top twelve this week will be Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Mike Vick’s struggles will continue. It will be interesting to see Andy Reid at the podium following Sunday Night’s game, and Monday afternoon once Vick struggles. Ryan Tannehill bottoms the list of the top twenty but I believe he will lead Miami to a quality victory on the road, to give the Cardinals their first loss of the season.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Eli Manning
4. Joe Flacco
5. Cam Newton
6. Matt Ryan
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick
9. Philip Rivers
10. Andy Dalton
11. Drew Brees
12. Peyton Manning
13. Josh Freeman
14. Tony Romo
15. Mike Vick
16. Matt Schaub
17 Matthew Stafford
18. Jay Cutler
19. Carson Palmer
20. Ryan Tannehill

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Points
1 Tom Brady Mid Twenties
2 Cam Newton Low Twenties
3 Drew Brees High Teens
4 Tony Romo High Teens
5 RG3 High Teens
6 Philip Rivers High Teens
7 Matt Stafford High Teens
8 Mike Vick Mid to High Teens
9 Ben Roethlisberger Mid to High Teens
10 Matt Ryan Mid to High Teens
11 Matt Cassel Mid to High Teens
12 Ryan Fitzpatrick Mid to High Teens
13 Peyton Manning Mid Teens
14 Joe Flacco Mid Teens
15 Alex Smith Mid Teens
16 Andrew Luck Mid Teens
17 Matt Schaub Mid Teens
18 Andy Dalton Low to Mid Teens
19 Blaine Gabbert Low to Mid Teens
20 Eli Manning Low to Mid Teens
21 Kevin Kolb Low to Mid Teens
22 Mark Sanchez Low Teens
23 Carson Palmer Low Teens
24 Josh Freeman Low Teens
25 Christian Ponder Low Teens
The rest twelve points or under

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The ever valuable running back gem landed in the latter part of fantasy drafts can be the overall difference maker come December. A few years ago it was Arian Foster who ran wild on defenses and sprung fantasy teams to title success. It’s not typical but you can land that back from an array of happenings. It usually takes an injury or a new environment for that to be a possibility.

There is a running back out in Chicago that has exactly that. A solid contract and a history of producing higher each of the last three seasons. Michael Bush just needs the carries, and based on Mike Tice’s ideas he could very well get those.

Holding out as Matt Forte did was done in part because he was so heavily involved in the Bears offense the last few seasons. These were not improvised play calls that Forte happened to be the check down option. Mike Martz wanted to bring the St. Louis Rams offense of his hey days to Chicago. Once the Bears figured out they did not have the receivers to do so, it turned into the best show by Forte. Runs and designed quick throws to Forte led to him catching over 50 passes each of the last three years.

Carries with the ground attack are there for two backs nowadays. The Bears did not over run Forte with carries, as they substituted the dump off passes to lessen his load. This year will be different with Mike Bush in the fold. They did not sign him to be a back that only carries five to seven times a game.

He will see at least ten carries a game. With how much of a threat Forte is out of the backfield it would not be shocking to see both behind Cutler. This backfield could be comparable to Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams or even ex Giant, Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw.

That means a heavy workload inside the ten for Bush. Chicago has the capability and weapons to be a top ten team for points offensively this year. That’s a bonus for Bush owners, who know Bush has been one of the better number two running backs in the league the past two seasons.

A typical running back is going to have his share of injuries throughout the season. It may not lead to not starting, but playing through injuries can be just as detrimental. Forte is coming off an injury and the Bears will want to protect him by taking necessary precautions. That means handing the ball to Bush and if there is a short stint of games Forte misses, than they would rely on Bush heavily.

While in Oakland Bush has had a knack for getting starts due to injury. He started seven games in 2009, three in 2010, and nine a year ago. If he can get near 160 to 180 carries you can expect Bush to be a borderline number tier one fantasy back that you start in your RB2 slot.

The quiet benefit with Bush is he can also catch the ball out of the backfield. You do not see that arsenal with many backs Bush’s size. Last year though Carson Palmer threw to Bush 37 times for over 400 yards receiving.

Even if Bush does not get two to three starts due to injury, we know what he can do in a strong role behind a starter. Just because a back does not reach 1,000 yard mark does not mean you should deter yourself from drafting him. Bush will outdo plenty of backs ahead of him in rankings and ADP.

Expect 700-750 yards rushing, near 200 yards receiving, and double digit touchdowns from Bush.

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Over the years Buffalo has become one of the teams that loves to have quarterback controversy. From recent battles with JP Losman and Trent Edwards, to Fitzpatrick himself versus Edwards, and the great battle of Drew Bledsoe vs. Losman, and Rob Johnson and Doug Flutie. Just like their division rival Miami Dolphins, Buffalo has had just as much of a struggle solidifying their starting quarterback since Jim Kelly retired.

You would think a maximum contract value of 59 million over the course of six years would be the proper vote of confidence in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh those tricky Buffalo Bills. Fitzpatrick’s guaranteed money is only 24 million, which means Fitzpatrick still has to prove himself each and every game.

Buffalo has been much more willing to spend free agency money the past few seasons but none was a bigger statement than offering and securing Mario Williams. With the offense young and on the rise, Buffalo believes they could be a playoff contender if the defense rises another level.

It’s not often that a journeyman quarterback for over five years finally finds his niche and begins playing well, as a Rich Gannon or Trent Green were able to.

Fitzpatrick has done that at times. He has advanced with his reads and abilities to throw the football down the field. Areas he still struggles are in the turnover department. When he is off, he can be like Carson Palmer and throw for multiple interceptions like he can afford to. Full time starters in the NFL do not throw two or more interceptions in half the games they played, and that’s exactly what Fitzpatrick did last season.

After getting his new contract, the second half of the Bills season last year was woeful for Fitzpatrick. Some of that can be blamed on not having his bread and butter running back Fred Jackson. Jackson was the beat to the offense, and did more than most would acknowledge. Weeks nine through eleven Fitzpatrick threw two touchdowns and a total of seven interceptions. Followed by another stretch in December in which he threw four touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Those are stretches that would find most starters on the bench, and may have happened to Fitzpatrick last year if it were not for the contract he landed. Buffalo made a lot of commotion this off-season for a backup quarterback and landed both Vince Young. A journeyman many figured would put the heat on Fitzpatrick for starting snaps.

We all know how the preseason went, and Young was cut as a result. In many preseason battles teams would stop right there with quarterback acquisitions and have faith in there other backups. Tyler Thigpen is a quarterback that has started in both Miami and Kansas City, and won the backup quarterback position.

One solid backup is not enough for Buffalo and they decided to trade for Tavaris Jackson.

If you’re Ryan Fitzpatrick there must be sub conscious thoughts that the organization is having its doubts with him. He has fought off the doubts the past few seasons, but an area he has to cement for the organization is his consistency. When he is on, Fitzpatrick can be that quarterback gem you started on y our fantasy team and got away with it. When he is off he can be the sole difference in a loss for your fantasy team.

Something is up in Buffalo with all the quarterback moves they have made. Some would believe it’s just to have insurance at quarterback. Look around the NFL and look at the backup propositions if injuries were to occur. Less than ten teams probably have a quarterback that teams would be comfortable having to start beyond one game.

Downgrade Fitzpatrick’s fantasy value going into 2012. Just as the last few seasons, his play on the field would have to develop for him to have waiver wire meaning. I do not believe he finishes the season as Bills starter. His interception rate just gets to high at crucial stretches.