Predictions

Week Ten Potential Fourth Quarter Killers

Wednesday, 6 November, 2013

Week Ten Potential Fourth Quarter Killers

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RG3
RG3 and the Redskins just don’t want to make things easy on themselves. While that has been the case, there has been a fantasy points spree from RG3 late in games as a result. Thursday games this season have not necessarily been fantasy friendly but RG3 will break that mold.

Carson Palmer
Houston is in a dire situation that does not look good. Case Keenum shined against the Colts but will be facing a higher grade defense in the Arizona Cardinals. They’ll shadow Andre Johnson much better than the Colts did. Arizona has also been stout on defense at stopping the run. This is a perfect setup game for Palmer to have a coming out party with his arm. Look for Arizona to beat a poor Houston secondary time after time.

Matt Forte
Forte has had two great games, one against Washington before the bye week and last week against the Packers. New head coach Marc Trestman is putting on a show with his play calling. Everyone wants to talk about the Eagles being the most potent offense, but the Bears have been scoring at a higher rate this season. Watch Forte have another strong performance that leads into the fourth quarter.

Rashad Jennings
With Darren McFadden out Jennings gets a chance to fill the role he embraced as MJD’s backup in Jacksonville. Oakland needs their running game to be successful to have any shot at aiding Terrelle Pryor. It may not happen immediately this weekend, but Jennings should continue the trend of Oakland being a consistent threat for an RB2 in fantasy football.

DeMaryius Thomas
When Denver has big leads they don’t let off the gas. Peyton will still call audibles at the line of scrimmage to get the most out of a play. Against the Washington Redskins it resulted in a few miscues with interceptions. Other times it led to big plays. DeMaryius Thomas is a big receiver that no one wants to take down in the fourth quarter.

Keenan Allen
San Diego is going to need to throw a ton to try and compete with the Broncos. Over the last six weeks, Keenan Allen has been an ignition in the Chargers offense. Philip Rivers will continue to lean on his rookie and the Chargers will draw up favorable play calls for both. This game may be closer than people think but San Diego will certainly be in passing situations.

Others: Marshawn Lynch, Le’Veon Bell, Anquan Boldin, Jason Witten, Mike James, Frank Gore, and Zac Stacy.

Potential Fourth Quarter Killers Week Eight

Tuesday, 22 October, 2013

Potential Fourth Quarter Killers Week Eight

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Week eight has six teams on bye week with the Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, and Texans. That makes it even ever more important that you choose a viable fantasy football starter for Thursday and Monday’s games. Some of you are right on the fringe of getting into your league’s fantasy football playoff picture.

Here are some fourth quarter killer opportunity starters to use in week eight.

Mike Tolbert

Tolbert’s performance this past week against the Rams would of likely got some other running backs benched in the NFL. With the Panthers pinned on their own one yard line, Tolbert stutter stepped to find a hole, instead of lunging forward. It cost the Panthers a safety which could have been a tailspin negative effect. Luckily for Tolbert it wasn’t. Clearly the Panthers love to utilize Tolbert in short yardage situations. It has led to Tolbert getting the one yard plunging touchdowns that use to go to Cam Newton. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Tolbert get an increased work load in the fourth quarter, on top of his normal goal line and short yardage duties.

Jordan Cameron

Cameron has been awfully quiet the past few weeks as Brandon Weeden has put on multiple poor performances. A game against Kansas City isn’t going to be much easier on Weeden’s psyche. An area the Browns need to re-attack to give Weeden some confidence is throwing the football back to Cameron. It seemed when Josh Gordon returned from suspension and had a few breakout games, that the Browns shifted their passing game focus to Gordon. If a blowout occurs in this contest, I would expect Cameron to get easy targets with a relaxed Chiefs prevent defense.

Brian Hartline

Tom Brady hardly ever loses back to back games. In fact he usually comes out firing to avenge the prior week’s loss. A majority of Patriots losses during Tom Brady’s career could be traced to the Patriots defensive let downs. Against the Jets it was Brady that struggled against the Jets pressure and had a costly pick-six with an eleven point lead. Miami has back tracked considerably since a 3-0 start. Ryan Tannehill has been a turnover machine and the Dolphins can’t establish a ground game. One go to guy for Tannehill has been Hartline. Expect Hartline to get ample targets late and be a fourth quarter fantasy contributor.

Le’Veon Bell

After a month on the job it appears that enough has been learned on Terrelle Pryor’s skillset. In the second half against the Chargers the offense went to shutdown mode, even though they held on to victory. Against Kansas City, Pryor had a successful first quarter before the Chiefs adjusted to shutdown Pryor’s running capabilities. Without his legs Pryor is not savvy enough yet to be a passing quarterback. It led to an unsettled offense and an atrocious interception thrown by Pryor in the second half against Kansas City. I suspect that Pryor’s woes will linger over against a Steelers team now on a two game winning streak. Le’Veon Bell has been a mini catalyst for the Steelers offense and should get a heavy workload in the second half against the Raiders.

Michael Floyd

If you could label a young Vincent Jackson molded receiver in the NFL—Michael Floyd would fit that bill. He is a tall athletic target that can possess the football over smaller defensive backs. Atlanta has struggled in many areas on defense this year. Matt Ryan struggled a year ago against the Cardinals with several first half interceptions. This should be a good matchup but I expect Carson’s week to week woes to position the Falcons nicely. Floyd will probably have an all around quality game that turns into a great one based on his fourth quarter stats.
Others: Jared Cook, Greg Jennings, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Terrence Williams, and Khiry Robinson

Week Seven Fourth Quarter Killers

Wednesday, 16 October, 2013

Week Seven Fourth Quarter Killers

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The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals kick things off in week seven tomorrow night. It’s vital to have all types of aspects ready to go for your lineups. Key stars mixed with best shots to outdo their normal fantasy numbers is the recipe for a win. Athletes that can outdo their fantasy numbers can come from teams trailing big—-fourth quarter garbage stats. Here are some athletes that can shine largely in the fourth quarter.

Ryan Tannehill
Buffalo has been decimated with injuries defensively and at the quarterback position. Miami is coming off a bye week and will look to get back on the winning track. During Miami’s three wins sometimes it would take Tannehill until the fourth quarter to really thrive. I wouldn’t be shocked for Miami to be down slightly in the fourth before Tannehill wakes up and brings the team back with a big performance.

Cam Newton
Unlike other quarterbacks with a big lead, Cam Newton’s stats usually grow. It’s as if he is trying to make up for the lackluster performances he has had in other games. Against the Giants and Vikings, Newton had a big part of his fantasy success days in the second half with a sizeable lead. The Rams are still a very vulnerable team that Cam Newton should be able to finally have back to back solid games.

Josh Gordon
Gordon has cracked the top ten fantasy receiver lists on several occasions and might be making himself a permanent fixture in those rankings. Last year he was getting behind secondary’s with ease and was just a big play receiver. This year Cleveland has mixed in all types of routes that are getting him more involved with the offense on every down. He is a big receiver that is looking for that big contract…..and will get it. This weekend’s game against the Green Bay Packers may be closer than people think, but Gordon should continue to have a high impact.

Andre Johnson
The Chiefs defense has been gaining steam as the season goes further, while the offense seems to be regressing. An odd mix but it’s working and the Chiefs have not had to play from behind except for a few minutes against Tennessee. Houston’s quarterback woes are not going to go away in a matter of days, which does not bode well for either Matt Schaub or TJ Yates keeping this game competitive. Where there will be a fantasy green light will be with Andre Johnson. The aging receiver already has forty four caught balls and near 450 yards receiving. He should churn up some more late in this game.

Reggie Wayne
Everyone is talking about the second year quarterback in Andrew Luck having a chance to face the quarterback he replaced in Peyton Manning and vice versa. What about Wayne facing his old quarterback that threw him the football all but two years of his career? Wayne will be the key guy to watch for offensively against a Denver team that allowed 48 points to Dallas and then 190 yards receiving to Justin Blackmon a week ago.

Others: Justin Blackmon, Nic Foles, Tony Romo, DeSean Jackson, and Michael Floyd

Week Five Fourth Quarter Killers

Wednesday, 2 October, 2013

Week Five Fourth Quarter Killers

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Jay Cutler and the Bears Offensive Weapons
The theme currently with the Bears is that their offense is causing the team to play from behind. Albeit from poor mistakes by Jay Cutler or slow starts. Soon that will shift to issues from the defense. They’ve been giving up a ton of yards that has yielded points. Turnovers can only bailout a team so much. Facing New Orleans will be the latest failure of a Bears defense susceptible to big plays. Expect Jay Cutler and his weapons to be gunning again late. A flurry of fantasy points will accumulate as a result.

Tony Romo
Blending any team against the Broncos right now is a recipe for fantasy success. Dallas has not been able to form a consistent offensive game plan and it has wreaked havoc for a consistent team. Well this week against the Broncos a true offensive game plan won’t matter. The secondary is once again in shambles and won’t be able to correct issues in seven days let alone against Peyton Manning. Romo gets a lot of unwarranted attention because he gets put in these type of 50 pass attempt games frequently. He’ll be a top four week five fantasy producer but be the aching Dallas Cowboys media topic basher at the same time.

MJD
Owners have been waiting for a game that MJD will surpass his team’s inefficiency offensively. This is the golden game where you’ll see a payoff. I actually believe the Jaguars are not too far off from where the Rams are talent wise. The gap is much closer than we’ve seen from the Jaguar opponents in the Chiefs, Colts, and Seahawks. Blaine Gabbert will use MJD more in this game with the ground attack and with quick screens. Once the game hits the fourth quarter, MJD will be the difference as he is the most talented player on the field.

Cam Newton
Reflecting on good moments in your career is hard to not think about once in awhile. Newton’s career is still a mere few years in but it all started in a phenomenal week one debut in Arizona. Now he is back to Glendale, Arizona with a new fire after the Panthers dismantled the Giants before the Panthers bye week. In the second half of that game you could see Cam Newton’s confidence spring back. He’ll put together a fantasy friendly game against a Cardinals defense that many fantasy owners would consider sitting Newton.

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Robert Woods
A quick turn around for a rookie quarterback may not be the best of things. EJ Manuel has done a decent job at home, but on the road he has struggled mightily. Cleveland’s defense will attack and likely force plenty of three and outs for the Bills. By the fourth quarter Cleveland should have a comfortable ten to thirteen point lead that will allot the defense to ease a bit. Woods is showing to be one of Manuel’s favorite targets, and should produce this week in the fourth quarter.

Titans Defense
Tennessee is not getting enough credit for what their defense has provided for an overall boost to their team. The injury to Jake Locker will leave bettors and fans discouraged to take the home dog Titans. Not me. Locker’s replacement in Ryan Fitzpatrick thrives in backup roles and has done it as a Ram, Bengal, and Bill. His payday was granted in Buffalo and now he has zero pressure on his shoulders. Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the other hand have heightened expectations that were not there just four weeks ago. The dink and dump offensive approach with Alex Smith is going to crack soon. It didn’t against the Jags, Cowboys, Eagles, or Giants. All of which are not considered top ten or even twenty defenses. Smith will cave and provide the Titans defense with plenty of fantasy points.

Others: Eagles and Giants offensive talent against each other’s poor defenses, Geno Smith, Terrelle Pryor, and Dez Bryant

Bucs Glennon Should Fare Well Starting Against AZ

Wednesday, 25 September, 2013

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Throwing in a new quarterback by going with someone that has no career experience would cause many to be worried. Ten years ago defenses would feed off of inexperienced quarterbacks. Not this day in age. Quarterbacks have seen the plethora of defensive schemes and are advanced in recognizing reads and where to go with the football.

Tampa Bay is going to test out their young quarterback Mike Glennon in favor of Josh Freeman. Freeman once stormed the league with a great season in 2010, but has fallen out of favor after repeated poor performances. Whatever Freeman’s off the field issues have been he is in need of a new situation. I believe Greg Schiano made the right move in not waiting any longer on seeing what Glennon can do.

The Buccaneers could easily be 2-1 even with last week’s loss at home to the Patriots. They let the Jets hang around enough to lose on a last second field goal. Against the Saints their defense was stout. It setup the offense with a short field on their only offensive touchdown of the game, and scored the other. Frankly, Freeman’s performance in that game should have had him on the bench.

You don’t want to lose your team this early in the season, and the Buccaneers at 0-3 are right on the cusp. They’ve signed some key veteran free agents that may value their contract dollars over their performance if things keep getting worse. Moving to Glennon bolsters the team to strive extra and see what happens. The NFC is already showing cracks in the NFC North and East divisions and the Falcons are only a game ahead of the Buccaneers.

Glennon is a big quarterback that is going to need time to unleash to his wide receivers Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. This week against the Cardinals I’d expect the Bucs to give Doug Martin his biggest load of the year. If he can establish the run I do not see Glennon having an issue completing pass plays down the field to his big play receivers. Arizona has been suspect at allotting receiving yards, especially to tight ends.

Last week the Saints abandoned the rushing game early as they could not run the ball against the Cardinals. Still, even with the Cards defense knowing that Brees was throwing the football each down they could not prevent the Saints passing attack. Brees receivers didn’t even have a big day, it was all Jimmy Graham.

Obviously, Brees and Glennon are on opposite sides of the spectrum in terms of quarterbacking. But having a home edge and a basic offensive game plan should keep the Buccaneers in this game. They’ll need to rely on their pressuring defense to create turnovers. Turnovers have been Carson Palmer’s enemy on the road. The last two years he has thrown an interception on the road every game but one.

You can easily say he had a better running game in those environments in Oakland and Cincinnati as well.

Coming into this season Glennon knew he would likely get a chance to start. The media has been on Josh Freeman and the squabbles amongst the Buccaneers staff on his capabilities. He should be ready for this moment, and this is a good spot for him to get a start before the bye week.

This team is going to come out hard to grab a win to go into the bye week. All Glennon has to do is protect the football, as Palmer will be good for at least one if not more interceptions. If the Buccaneers can get an early lead, they should be able to protect it.

Don’t be surprised to see Glennon be the latest young quarterback to win his first game as a starter.

Fantasy Focus for Thursday: Chiefs vs Eagles

Tuesday, 17 September, 2013

Fantasy Focus for Thursday: Chiefs vs Eagles

Follow@cimini Each week I like to profile Thursday’s games to give fantasy owners some clarity in setting their lineups early. Thursday’s game profiles the Eagles potent offense squared against its former coach in Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Reid has been known for his unbalance in the ground attack vs the air attack. Will he have the Chiefs ready to play Chip Kelly ball or can he force the tempo to his side and slow things down with Alex Smith’s playbook? Quarterbacks Philadelphia’s defense has reverted quickly back to its old lay down and get thrashed ways. In their last six quarters they have given up yards and points galore. San Diego attacked the defense exactly like a college team does against potent offenses. Short quick throws and mixed in runs that eat the clock. Philadelphia could not get up on any of the routes and it allotted Philip Rivers to have one of his best mistake free games in quite a while. Kansas City has the same type of offense that might be even more simplistic with the dink and dump attack. Smith also has scrambling ability that should bolster his fantasy stats for the week. Smith though will not be rated any higher than a mid range teen ranking this week. Vick, on the other hand, is a no-brainer to insert in your lineups. Kelly will find a way as he always does to develop the run or pass with his high velocity play calls. For those worried about the Chiefs currently having a top five defense don’t be. They faced the Jaguars week one and were getting torched by the Dez Bryant in the first half this past Sunday. Dallas than reverted to poor play calling that deflected away from Bryant’s involvement in the passing game. Running Backs Thursday’s game usually does not present itself as a stat filler for running backs. This week should change that with Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy matching up. Kansas City sort of held back Charles this past Sunday against the Cowboys. Maybe it was because of the short week ahead, and they realize his value is high on the barometer against a poor Eagles team. Against Dallas he only had sixteen carries and his involvement was not it’s typical use. Shady McCoy may have a tough time against a Chiefs defense that is stout against the run. Where they struggle is in the passing game, so the Eagles will likely find McCoy out of the backfield and with quick screens to loosen the Chiefs front seven. Wide Receivers The question with the Chiefs receivers is who is next to step up. In an odd week where the Chiefs will have to pass the ball, there will be other receivers and weapons that dot the fantasy radar. Dexter McCluster is poised to breakout this week. He has been split out as wide receiver in several packaged plays. His role in the backfield has diminished but don’t be surprised if the Chiefs involve him in a few decoy plays back there. Donnie Avery is another to consider as he had a touchdown a week ago and has been getting a solid share of Alex Smith’s mediocre passing yards thus far. Owners of Dwayne Bowe are anticipating one of those monster games he used to put up two to three years ago. He should be able to get into the end zone at least once. From Philadelphia’s standpoint it’s a full go from the regulars in DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, and Jason Avant. X-Factor: Tempo Being a short week questions will linger if Chip Kelly may slow things down or Andy Reid may extend drives. Kansas City may do so on a drive or two, but I don’t believe Andy Reid has faith in that style of football. He’ll play to win and score. For those worried about the Eagles not being rested on a short week should pay attention to how rested they should actually be. Against the Chargers they were not even on the field for twenty minutes of game action. The Chargers had the football for over forty minutes while the Eagles held it for right under twenty. The Eagles will be right back to their all out arsenal attack offensively.