Predictions

Veteran Quarterback Sleepers

Friday, 13 June, 2014

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The names ring a bell but do the have any fantasy football value? Surely if the opportunity presents itself they might end up being a starter. In some situations they are already in position to win the job or improve upon their season from a year ago. Kurt Warner set the stage for veteran success on multiple occasions.

Look around the NFL and there are several elite quarterbacks still performing at a high level past the age of 35.

Here are some quarterbacks that likely won’t get drafted but may end up on fantasy football rosters sooner than later.

Kyle Orton
It’s hard to believe that Orton is just 31 years old. He’ll have to beat out Brandon Weeden to retain the backup duties in Dallas. Without question, the Cowboys have the offensive tools to make either an adequate fantasy fill-in if Tony Romo were to go down. Based on Romo’s injury history, chances are high that Orton could see the field once again.

Carson Palmer
Palmer gets to his second season under center in Arizona this fall. You could say the same patterns of problems with Carson that were issues in Oakland and Cincinnati plagued him in 2013. Unless he cuts back on his ill-advised interceptions, it could be a short lived second season as a Cardinal. Arizona has Drew Stanton as a backup and drafted Logan Thomas as another prospect.

Thad Lewis
Buffalo is hoping that they can count on EJ Manuel to remain healthy this season. If not, Lewis, will be called on once again to handle duties. Lewis won a key game at Miami and exhibited fair capabilities for a backup quarterback.

Jason Campbell
Out of all the backups in the league, I’m still not sure I know why Campbell never got a true chance to be a starter beyond Washington. His days in Oakland don’t count. As a starter for the Redskins he seemed to be a poised quarterback capable of being a yearly starter. Obviously the rest of the NFL did not see it that way, and Campbell is now settled in as a journeyman backup. With the talent that the Bengals have and the high tension from fans and the media on Andy Dalton, Campbell could see the field as a Bengal.

Brian Hoyer
Hoyer had the most detrimental injury of all quarterbacks last season. He was playing so well in a couple of games as a starter, and winning games on top of it. Who knows how much different May’s draft would have been if the Browns had won more games with Hoyer under center. The future is obviously Johnny Manziel. The question will be if Hoyer can hold off Manziel in camp. Also, if Johnny wins the job if he can remain healthy an entire season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
It’s not often a career journeyman quarterback gets the starting job so often. Fitzpatrick’s needs to pay his agent just a smidge more after his latest job in Houston. From the Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, and now Texans, Fitzpatrick has seen it all in his ten year career. For everyone of those teams he has been a starter. Three of those cases were due to injury (Titans, Rams, Bengals). One thing Fitzpatrick does do, is he goes out and lays it on the line each time he is on the field. Houston needs that desperately after what occurred last season.

Mike Vick
Does anyone besides the Jets PR writer, believe that the Jets truly expect Geno Smith to be their starting quarterback all season? The second Mike Vick was signed a kindergartner could put two and two together of what the future lies for the Jets. It’ll be Mike Vick likely before the preseason ends as the starter. Smith just does not have the accuracy or savvy to be a starting quarterback. This high draft pick mistake the Jets can admit their wrongdoing and move on accordingly. Unlike what they did with Mark Sanchez. Vick has been waiting for a true chance to push forth. He had it momentarily in Philadelphia, but got caught in his injury woes and Andy Reid’s last stand as an Eagles head coach.

If there is any veteran quarterback that can climb himself back into legitimate fantasy worthiness it’s Vick.

EASY MONEY WITH CALVIN JOHNSON OR NO?

Thursday, 12 June, 2014
AP Photo

AP Photo

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What Calvin Johnson did in 2013 was as ridiculous a season a wide receiver can have. The closest that I can remember having a season like that was David Boston’s lone breakout year, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss’s 1998 season. For Boston and Moss that ceiling would never be replicated to that extreme. Owens was able to still be a fantasy touchdown machine for a string of years.

Owners know Johnson’s last season is long gone old news. His numbers almost single handily gave fantasy owners the gateway to a fantasy playoff birth. By having him on their team owners were able to count themselves an easy double digit checkoff week to week. And this wasn’t the normal double digit variety some receivers posted. Sky high results in standard leagues he sometimes posted high twenty to low thirty results. I won’t even step into the realm of his PPR results.

Quick trigger fantasy owners are going to be absent minded in putting any thought into Johnson’s 2014 potential season. He is megatron after all. Results don’t need to be thought upon.

Well maybe they should. As noted earlier athletes that have a premium season tend to regress some. At the position of receiver any type of downgrade can put you in the mix of ten to fifteen receivers. There just is not as high of a gap between receivers like there is in other football positions.

That has to be a factor when deciding on drafting Calvin Johnson.

Another is Johnson faced the poorest division in terms of NFL secondaries last year. Chicago and Green Bay were banged up all season in the secondary, and Minnesota’s young cornerbacks were going through growing pains. Of those nearly 1500 receiving yards, Johnson also faced the Cowboys for an all world game of nearly 300 yards receiving and the Steelers for nearly 200.

Both of those defenses were also torched consistently. To the point that quarterbacks such as Andy Dalton and every NFC East quarterback had extreme success.

Take away those key signature games and fill them in with average Johnson receiving yards, and he would have likely finished around 1150 yards receiving.

That puts him still as an elite receiver but not by a huge stretch in terms of yardage. Johnson’s never ending value comes in the area of touchdowns. He can be banked upon to reach double digit touchdowns year after year. His size and uncanny leaping ability is undeniable.

But will the rest of the NFC North finally catch up to Johnson and limit his consistent big numbers versus them? And will Johnson’s matchups in the AFC and non-division NFC teams gear up to stop him better?

It’s all a higher probability than last season.

This isn’t a bust label on Calvin Johnson. Rather it is a cautious high first round alert. Fantasy owners are becoming more unconscious with the new norm of drafting a non-running back in round one. Using that train of thought can come back to bite you in a quick hurry.

CAN MIAMI’S OFFENSE TRANSFORM?

Wednesday, 11 June, 2014

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Watching the Dolphins last year as a fan you should of turned games off in the fourth quarter. An average season turned on several fourth quarters in which they let leads vanish. It was as if Miami could not hit that next gear offensively to over take a game. Playing it safe could work for three quarters before the opposing team would outplay the Dolphins.

Miami had to experience the dramatic losses they did if they wanted to entrust Ryan Tannehill as their future quarterback. Young starting quarterbacks are bound to make mistakes, and Tannehill made his share of alarming ones. By holding the football too long he had costly fumbles, including one against the Buffalo Bills, that would have netted Miami a win.

This will be a telling year for the Dolphins to see if they can entrust Tannehill 100 percent as the main signal caller. At times he would play outstanding. Delivering laser throws as he did in an early win at Indianapolis. Consistency just wasn’t up to par of a starting quarterback. You can say his play was comparable to old starting quarterback Chad Henne. Games mixed in with promise just weren’t enough to offset the common results.

The surprising early start from the Dolphins won’t shock anybody like it did in 2013. Teams will be prepared to rattle Ryan Tannehill and see if he has improved on his check downs throws. An area Miami hopes to see a boost in is in their running game. By adding Knowshown Moreno Miami hopes they can deliver the same triple threat the Broncos were able to emulate. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are still young backs but have shown they need a veteran starter ahead of them.

From a fantasy standpoint, Tannehill ranks as a high teen to low 20’s quarterback. For now. At times he has shown he can be a backup fantasy quarterback in situational matchups. The opportunity to rise higher is there for Tannehill if he is ready. I’m not sure he is just yet. I’d expect Miami to ease him into the 2014 season, and continue to play the ball control style they exhibited in 2013. But if the Dolphins are hovering around .500 again they are going to need to flip the switch with Tannehill.

This is the point of the season that owners may be able to gamble on Tannehill more as a fantasy option. Miami will test their investments worth and see if Tannehill can lead them beyond a mediocre season.

VALUE UNDERDOGS WEEK ONE OF THE NFL

Tuesday, 10 June, 2014

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A summer goes by quick. Football fanatics consider this season their restless time period. Reading up on daily information for fantasy football drafts can only feed their football needs for so long. Trash talking fills the void for a few weeks and then preseason football finally takes over.

One area that can be a temporary look ahead for die-hard football fans is the week one odds that are already out.

It’s crazy to consider that you could place a bet on an NFL game three months from now. But in Las Vegas there are many people that will head to the ticket window and place a bet now. Some are locals that consider the line value worthy of a bet now. Others are tourists in town and figure they’ll make a return trip down the road to possibly cash out.

I’ve never been one to look ahead on lines because of sudden injuries and lackluster performances from teams of a year ago. But this year may be different. A lot of NFL teams haven’t changed the nucleus of their teams as in years past. Many coaches remain and the format is there to anticipate possible line value.

Here are just a few games that I believe there lies value on in week one.

St. Louis Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
This current line sits at -6 in favor of the St. Louis Rams. Teams that looked awful to conclude seasons typically roll that over into the next. Minnesota was one of the worst teams to finish out the second half of the year. Part of that had to do with their unsettling situation at quarterback. Freeman-Ponder-Cassel. None proved to be worthy of the starting job. Thus the Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater to hopefully solidify their quarterback issues. St. Louis on the other hand started to look like a true contender to be reckoned with as the season waned. Especially at home where they blew out teams such as the Bears and Colts. Jeff Fisher has this team primed to excel. Who knows who the Vikings will roll out as starter week one.

One can assume that it will be Matt Cassel. Veterans with average talent tend to struggle looking over their shoulder. That will be the case for Cassel as his days as starter will be numbered for Bridgewater. With a new coaching staff most players will be on a short leash. There just is too many roster moves the Vikings will be overhauling while the Rams have their teams intact.

Total San Diego vs Arizona of 44.5
Last year San Diego was one of the dreadful teams to watch offensively. They had a methodical way of doing things that sometimes won games and others caused problems. Due to the NFL’s high rate of scoring this line is basically at the median average. Simple enough to likely not attract eyes in June or July. Being formerly from Arizona I know enough about this Cardinals team to know they are a slow starting team.

Both of these teams have sound defenses, and veteran offenses. That should equate to simplistic offense in hopes of winning the game in the fourth quarter. One should know not to trust either Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers in September. This game should have the biggest shift in opening spread differential to gameday.

Is Aaron Rodgers that Stock With Red Flags Being Overlooked?

Friday, 6 June, 2014

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Aaron Rodgers has lit up the NFL and fantasy football world year after year. Any fantasy football stat tracker on a Sunday will showcase Rodgers points moving upward like a hot stock on Wall Street. He has earned the top spot as best quarterback in football and therefore fantasy football.

Age has a lot to do with why people will still draft Rodgers without thinking twice. His counterparts that still rank high in fantasy football efficiency are several years older than him. Players such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and even Tony Romo.

Hot stocks in Wall Street are the ones that can bite you in a hurry. Aaron Rodgers has some gray areas that are evident but not being discussed.

For one he is a quarterback that has never had a proper running game. The Packers have made things work with a plethora of below average running backs. That has partly had to do with injuries occurring at a high rate. Things may be looking upward in that department with the combo of Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin. But will either or be a viable option consistently?

Another area being over looked is the tenure between Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has been the Packers head coach since 2007. There is no reason to consider firing McCarthy, but there is a common link between coaches and starting quarterbacks. They don’t go hand in hand over a long period of time without failure.

Look at over the course of even the last ten to fifteen years and you’ll notice the regression amongst good coaches and great quarterbacks. At some point or another that coaches system breaks down and effects the quarterback on the field.

That hasn’t happened to a noticeable effect yet, but you can see teams are better prepared for the Packers aerial attack than in years past. It’s similar to the way teams have been able to limit the Saints offense when big games occur. You’ll notice that since the Packers and Saints Super Bowl wins their playoff success and regular season success against winning teams has waned.

The biggest area to cast a shadow of doubt with Rodgers is his injury history. Injuries are so common now in fantasy football that some aren’t even factoring it in to their drafts. Their idea is to secure themselves for the inevitable with depth.

Well just like a scout team and personnel in major sports, drafting a player requires thinking of all possibilities.

Rodgers is coming off a year in which he missed six games due to injury. It was the first time he has missed more than one game in a season. In prior years he has only missed an individual game. Some would say back then he shook off injuries a week or two earlier than he should have to get back on the field.

Either way he has shown a history of injury concerns.

Rodgers time as an elite fantasy quarterback is not coming to an end. I’d just be a little bit leery drafting him without a proper top notch backup fantasy quarterback. If you’re in a top spot and someone wants to trade up to get Rodgers, maybe that’s a safer option.

Is McCoy Headed for the LT Wall?

Monday, 26 May, 2014

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Tenure as a top fantasy football running back is a long gone signature to fantasy football. Back in the 1990’s and even early 2000’s the way a running back was handled is completely different from today. Coaches use to burn their star running back year after year, and made fantasy owners quite happy. Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Ricky Waters, etc. all enjoyed a top tier track record as fantasy backs.

Then things began to change in the 2000’s. The size of athletes grew, along with intense training, salary cap restrictions, and a plethora of other dynamics. Teams began to realize they had to shift their player priority plans in two to three year spans, instead of long term. Relying on a running back on the downtrend of his career just was not feasible anymore.

Teams began to implore better analytics to achieve youthful running backs for a lower dollar amount. Essentially they had a backup plan in their backfield, and in turn could keep their backfield competitive with proper rotation.

The period where fantasy owners were leery on how to draft in a dual backfield system has been over. Fantasy owners have adjusted and many could argue that this day and age of fantasy football there is better depth to be had. Before owners could win the league based on having two to three of the top players. Now you truly have to grind out your roster top to bottom on a week to week basis.

Still a draft can be ruined if your top pick(s) end up the IR report for a long duration of the season or hit an abrupt fantasy wall.

There is no other position that has a free fall at the top position like a running back. An elite receiver or quarterback can sustain their careers into their 30’s. At running back that wall can come abruptly well before the age of 30 or shortly thereafter.

Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LT, Ray Rice, Brian Westbrook and countless others have deteriorated in one season right before our eyes. It’s like watching a stock downtrend month to month after a strong run. As a fantasy owner you think the back will bounce back any week, but it just doesn’t happen. The next season that back is properly ranked with a red down arrow next to his name. His stock is still sinking and his backup is gaining on him via the front office and coaching staff.

That’s the business of the NFL.

In Philadelphia, Eagles fans have become accustomed to top backs that fizzle quickly. Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and Ricky Waters all saw their time come and go.

McCoy is just 25 but not a young 25. He has been a strong back in this league for a good five years now. Unheard of for backs his age. He also has been the type of back that carries the load running and out of the backfield. Andy Reid was one of the few coaches that didn’t mind utilizing his backs at a high rate, and was always infatuated with backs that could catch the ball. Chip Kelly may even hold this area of football higher than Reid.

You wouldn’t expect a tremendous blip from McCoy this year barring injury, but a dip is possible. Sooner or later McCoy is going to slowly lose one of his dominant traits. It may just be this season. Draft cautiously.