Week One Predictions
By Zack Cimini

Here are Notjustagame’s week one selections enjoy.

St. Louis +4
Tennessee -3
Buffalo +10
Tampa Bay -3
Cincinnati +2.5
Detroit +7
Atlanta +5
Philadelphia -5
Cleveland -3
Dallas +2
Chicago -3.5
San Francisco +7
Indianapolis -3
Washington -4.5
San Diego -3

It’s finally here…the 2006 NFL season. For those that are rookies to fantasy football, welcome aboard. You will need all the help you can get and likely will be hurting because you drafted like a rookie. There will be next year for you guys.

If you’re a true veteran to the fantasy football world, you’re probably reviewing and bewildered by how many fantasy football leagues you actually did this summer. There are too many connections now with friends doing the leagues, and who can resist turning down an offer to do a league? They started back in June and by now, you’ve got your hands on five to eight leagues to manage. Have fun with them and show who is the king in all of your leagues. Owners that let their teams rot from inactivity are not true fantasy football players.

As we head into week one, remember a few things. Do not get over critical on a poor start by your so called franchise players. The 1,000 yards stats a receiver or running back gets occurs over a FULL sixteen game schedule. So there will be at least four to five games from that player that won’t provide stellar stats. Secondly, look for key match ups to gain yourself that few extra points from a player with a poor match up. That’s why you drafted for fifteen rounds and not ten, utilize your depth.

A number one rule we always like to do is give yourself that leeway over your opponent by plugging in at least one player from a Monday night game. As anyone would know, Monday night usually tends to be a high scoring affair. Flashback to a couple of years ago and I think there were a record number of games that scored outrageous combined totals. With all of those points comes a great chance for your fantasy football team to be rescued with a W. You could be trailing by ten to fifteen and still put out the win and leave your fantasy opponent shaking his head.

Having that Monday night player out there when your opponent doesn’t, usually will pay off for a win more than it does not.

Here is an overview of players that should standout week one from your fantasy teams. We all know the normal regulars that should start every week on your fantasy team, but we like to look for the potential long shot that could breakout. Be sure to also check out our article on “Question Marks” for the weekend, which will be up by Thursday night.

Quarterbacks

Chad Pennington vs. Tennessee Titans
Talk about a guy that has a lot to prove. Pennington was once on the brink of being a top five quarterback in the league. He knew how to win and just had those natural leadership and quarterback skills that you want from a starting quarterback. Now after a couple of injury riddled seasons he has to be strong in his mind on showcasing himself like a rookie again. His match up against the Tennessee Titans could not be better to build upon the 2006 season in the right way. Majority of fantasy owners waited as long as possible to draft a quarterback. If you were one that waited a little too long and are wondering where to look for a viable consistent guy, Pennington may be worth a look at. Quarterbacks tend to struggle week one as timing is off along with the ability to sustain drives for eight to ten plays. That bodes well for Pennington as he is use to throwing the short routes and managing the clock. For the very least Pennington should put up around 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Those aren’t mind blowing numbers but should be even higher, considering the Jets may struggle with the running game.

Jon Kitna vs. St. Louis Rams
If Mike Martz learned anything from his days as coach of the Rams he should be able to pass on that dissecting information to Jon Kitna. Kitna is a proven veteran but who has had success lately as a Detroit Lion? Not many, and that hex may continue for Kitna. His value is not as high as people are banking on this season but he will be a quarterback you can consider for four to five games this season. This is one of them, as the Rams defense has not and will not change.

Philip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders
When a coach is rehired ten years later we all know some serious changes need to happen on the team. Oakland has some big holes defensively, and Philip Rivers natural ability should be able to expose that. He is tall and can see and throw down the field, which is one thing that Drew Brees (6’0), could not do as well. Look for Rivers to start the year strong and be one of the highest percentage waiver wire pickups for week two.

Running Backs

Frank Gore vs. Arizona Cardinals
It’s not hard to overlook a team that is coming off a horrible season and looks destined for another, as the 49ers presumably do. Hold off on that, as the 49ers may do better than people think. Alex Smith has to be able to elevate his play somewhat, and Frank Gore is the real deal. Add Antonio Bryant to the mix and this team is loaded with youth offensively. The offensive line has been underrated and will be able to make Gore a consistent fantasy starter. The defense will struggle with giving up points, but that just means more opportunities for the offense to put up points. Gore should be one of the top five rushing stat leaders of week one.

Thomas Jones vs. Green Bay Packers
No one knows what the Bears are planning on doing with their running back situation. Cedric Benson has been dinged up throughout the preseason, and we’ll have to see what he is listed in this week’s injury report. Jones usually has big games against the Packers and will continue that trend as long as Benson does not take away his touches.

TJ Duckett vs. Minnesota
Clinton Portis is considered questionable and our hunch is that he will not play. The Redskins have enough talent on the field to contend against Minnesota without needing Portis. This is only week one and the Redskins will not rush Portis back. That means TJ Duckett and Ladell Betts will split the carries evenly. Duckett would get any red zone opportunities and even more fourth quarter carries to pound the ball on a tired Minnesota Vikings defense.

Wide Receivers

Reggie Brown vs. Houston Texans
Everyone is ranting about Donte Stallworth which will and has taken the focus quickly off of Reggie Brown. Brown is still the main guy for Philadelphia as it will take Stallworth a bit to get acclamented to the Eagles system. He just did get traded before the Eagles week four preseason game, so he has a lot to learn. Against the Houston Texans expect Brown to be the main target and have a big game.

Lee Evans vs. New England Patriots
The Bills are heavy underdogs in this game, and that is always a good sign for a fantasy team with a receiver like Lee Evans. With his big play ability and chemistry with J.P. Losman he is almost a lock to have a big game. His yardage and touchdown(s) may come with a meaningless score in the fourth quarter, but who cares for fantasy purposes. That extra twenty to thirty yards receiving with a touchdown he gets in the fourth quarter, could be that additional eight to ten points you need on your fantasy team to win.

Mushin Muhammed vs. Green Bay Packers
The Bears defense has not looked as strong as it did before that let down against Carolina. In preseason the number one unit was drove on often, and that means the Bears offense will be forced to open up the passing game. Last year, they somehow were able to thrive off of Kyle Orton basically protecting the game like a high school quarterback. That will not happen this year if the Bears want to be an elite team. Regardless who is at quarterback the passing game will open up. Green Bay’s secondary is still poor, and Muhammed should be able to use his veteran skills to have a decent day. He is well worth starting as your third wide receiver this week.

Emails or questions can be sent to zack.cimini@notjustagame.com

Unless your name is Ben Roethlisberger the first thing you’re looking towards as a rookie quarterback is your second season. For Alex Smith, he might be looking for his second team after his second year if he does not turn around a disastrous rookie year. Perhaps he worked out some of the bugs that plagued him last year, because he looked nothing like a number one draft pick. Often though quarterbacks that have struggled as bad as Smith did his rookie year never turn around. Furthermore, the 49ers organization is not on the cusp of anything but being a basement team with no chance of advancement. So Smith, will be in for many years of what David Carr has went through, and the pounding may not be endurable for him.

Smith needs to buckle down and just play his game. Too many times last year he just aired the ball out and carried week to week with more careless plays. What did not help is the fact that he had a poor offensive line and no running game. Still, you have to give your team some hope for them to respond. It all falls on his shoulders and he needs to show something to motivate others. Hurting your team with eleven interceptions and only one touchdown pass hurt his team in more ways than one can think. Imagine the motivation level of a team that was thought to lose before the season, and then Smith coming in and playing awful every week?

We here the supposed great players in Randy Moss and Michael Vick admitting to not playing all out on certain plays. Just because they have spoken about it the media and others love to criticize it. Just like in any line of work though, there are going to be times that a person is not giving it his all. None of the 49ers voiced their thoughts, but actions speak louder than words. There were no actions from the 49ers and the best times of their season were when Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey were playing.

San Francisco went from being a team that everyone wanted to go to, to a franchise everyone wants too leave. They got themselves in deep trouble with salary cap issues and still are working their way out of it. It’ll take some time, and maybe in a few years they will have that extra money to lure athletes back to the bay. An incentive always to a free agent is heading to a team with promise. Promise always comes from the quarterback position, and before his rookie year that was thought to be Alex Smith.

From a fantasy standpoint, Smith’s value is likely the worst ever in terms of a fantasy football team. He has zero upside for this season, and will likely not be on any teams. If he is, we all know who gets the vote for worst fantasy football general manager. That manager would have had to suffer injuries to every quarterback he drafted, and also to his waiver wire quarterback pickup(s). It’s that laughable, because Smith is a Jake Plummer heyday throwback player. He is going to make mistakes and keep making them.

We won’t rag on Smith too hard, as everyone knows what is ahead for him this year. The main thing is what lays ahead beyond this struggling season. He is a tall quarterback that can deliver a football wherever he wants. If he can even have a couple of great games to show value to other teams, he can work his hand to force the 49ers to trade him or surround him with better talent. The good news for Smith if he stays in a 49ers uniform is that they will have a top ten pick every year for the next five years. From there though that means nothing but a chance for the 49ers to overpay athletes they won‘t be able to keep after their first contract. Based on their pick in 2006, the likes of Vernon Davis should pay tremendous dividends to Alex Smith, but not enough to move them out of a top ten draft pick in 07.

It’s time to roll. Who’s going to be playing in the conference championship games a week from now? In less than forty hours the victorious teams will be on that path. Check out who we think will advance this weekend.

New England at Denver
The pick would be to take the Patriots. They’ve been the dominant team and are 10-0 under Brady. While they were having major success, the Broncos were getting bounced out yearly. It’s a reverse of fortunes now, as the Broncos now have home field. Mile High in the playoffs is going to be an unbelievable advantage for them. Everyone wanted to see the Colts axe the Patriots out, but it will be the Broncos.

Washington at Seattle
The Redskins have no chance at winning this game, unless they can somehow get a lead. Protecting the ball like a child not wanting to share is the only scenario that can work for them. As soon as Seattle builds a ten point lead, the game is over. Washington’s offense doesn’t have the tools to get it done, they’ll only add to the mess.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
Flip back to the Monday Night game in November. The Colts dominated defensively, and offensively just managed their game plan. With all the rest they’ve had, and the exact opposite for the Steelers, this game has blow out written over it as well.

Carolina at Chicago
If there is a chance of a major upset, here it is. Carolina matches up well against the Bears, especially with their defense. When they played earlier this season, the only thing that stopped the Panthers was the way their offense was murdered by the Bears defense. Maybe they learned something from that game, and will change things up a bit. One things for sure, that flip pass out to Steve Smith will not work. This will be a close game, but the Bears should edge the Panthers by a field goal.

The playoffs are here, and the only thing definite are the teams. If there is anyone that goes undefeated on their picks this go around in the playoffs, deserves to head to Vegas for a new career. You’d think home field advantage would be huge and it is. But a lot of teams, especially in the NFC, seem to not be affected by the home crowd. The great coaches will separate their teams above the rest. Coaches like Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden, Jim Fassel, and Bill Belicheck. Still, not even great coaching can get it done. The winter weather, stagnant bodies ready for the off-season, and key miscues will affect a game completely if the same two teams were to have lined up in October. Let’s go.

In the NFC, it all boils down to the quarterbacks. Most are inexperienced when it comes to a playoff taste. Jake Delhomme and Mark Brunell would be the most experienced, and Matt Hasselbeck also has a bad taste from last season. After that though, Chris Simms, Eli Manning, and Rex Grossman are the young bucks. Manning and Simms have been shaky and hot on the charts on different weeks. Rex Grossman hasn’t even absorbed a sixteen game schedule yet in his career.

The edge has to go to Carolina right now. They’re the team that has been there, and matches up well against every team. Seattle has been winning all season, and has the home field advantage edge. But they had a fairly easy schedule, and won a few close games that they shouldn’t have. The key with Seattle is slowing Shaun Alexander down. When that happens, Seattle’s offense is shut down from doing anything. That’s why we believe the Seahawks will have a hard time getting to the Super Bowl.

Just like Archie Manning said, he doesn’t want to hear talks of Eli vs. Peyton just yet. The reason why is because Eli isn’t ready. He’ll get the nasty results like his brother Peyton has over and over again. Manning has just been too erratic and there is no escaping that from not happening in three games to the Super Bowl.

Washington can play close games, but their defense is susceptible, and Mark Brunell is banged up. It’s going to difficult for them to beat the Buccaneers, which will have an even better chance this time with a healthy Carnell Williams. Which was not the case a few months back in November when they barely beat the Redskins.

With Chicago the only question is can their defense hold up every week against great teams? Being that it they’re statistically one of the best defenses in NFL history, why not? It’ll take a solid offense with Thomas Jones running well though to complement their team with wins.

Let’s not go overboard with decisions for picks. The only thing we’re saying is expect the usual upset or two, in the playoffs. One thing we’re almost sure of, is that Seattle will not be in the Super Bowl.

Week 16 Picks

Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
San Diego
San Francisco
Miami
Detroit
Tampa Bay
Washington
Carolina
Houston
Philadelphia
Seattle
Denver
Chicago
Baltimore
New England