Picks Week Four
By NJG

Atlanta -7
Miami -4
Indy -8
Kansas City -7
Dallas -10
San Diego -1.5
Minnesota +1
New Orleans +7
Detroit +7
Cincinnati -4.5
Cleveland -1
Jacksonville -3
Chicago -3.5
Green Bay +11

Week Three Picks
By Zack Cimini

Here are week’s three selections.

Overall Record: 16-14

Jets +6
Cincinnati +2
Jacksonville +6.5
Tennessee Titans +10.5
Washington -4
Vikings +3.5
Carolina -3
Detroit -6.5
Baltimore -7
Arizona -5
NY Giants +3.5
San Francisco +6
Denver +6.5
Atlanta -3.5

Two weeks have completed and the season is already full of considerable questions. Studs wide receivers, especially are being shut down while sleepers in Lavernues Coles, Antonio Bryant, and Donte Stallworth are controlling the position. This was definitely the year to seek out sleepers in those positions, because those of you that thought you were alright with taking a TO, Moss, Steve Smith, or even Torry Holt are shaking their heads. As always let the season pan out as great players will shine unless injury sets in. All of these stat trends and rankings aren’t done for nothing. They usually end up paying off in a decent way.

With that in mind, lets look at some players under the radar that are worth starting this weekend.

Quarterbacks

Brad Johnson
The Bears defense has looked dominant but hasn’t faced a team with the offensive capabilities of the Vikings yet. Brad Johnson isn’t going to do anything outrageous with the football. He is sneaky though with the way he manages a game. They’ll run the ball to death and punt it a lot with Chester Taylor, but they’ll also mix some big plays in through the air. Johnson might have one of those low yardage but high touchdown total games.

JP Losman
The Bills have yet to let him throw the football. It’s been because they’ve been in both of their games and didn’t want him to lose it. Actually, he did cost them the first game by getting sacked in the end zone, but that’s a different story. The Bills defense is not going to be able to hold up against the Jets offense. So they’re going to need more then a 6 for 10 game for 79 yards from Losman. He has been getting all his fantasy points with his legs. Add a decent amount of yardage and a touchdown here and there and Losman will be a quality start if you have no where else to go.

Jon Kitna
Things have not been going the way Kitna would have liked. The veteran has his job on the line this week or Josh McCown will step in. It does not matter who is the quarterback unless Kevin Jones can create some offense in the running game. He has really had a tough time which has affected Kitna’s play as well. Against the Packers, Jones should breakout and give Kitna time to throw all over the poor Packers secondary.

David Carr
The Redskins continue to be banged up with Shawn Springs out again with a groin injury. Carr has quietly started the season better then most would have anticipated. He has hit Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson well in the first two weeks, which is a great sign for fantasy owners. Carr is the Texans offense unless Samkon Gado can repeat his magic of last year. So airing it out is going to happen, whether it be good or bad.

Running Backs

Willis McGahee
He hasn’t found the end zone yet but may catch up this weekend. The yards will be no problem but anticipate a couple of trips to the end zone for McGahee.

Jamal Lewis
All we have to say is he delivers against the Cleveland Browns. Flashback and do some research to figure that one out. He hasn’t burst onto the 2006 season yet but has run harder and better then last season.

Steven Jackson
Jackson is another back that can’t find the end zone. The Rams in fact have had a hard time scoring seven points. Facing the Cardinals defense is going to be instant relief in their points scored department. Jackson may be on his way to a Pro Bowl season, and will be if he stays healthy.

Ronnie Brown
The whole Dolphins offense has been MIA. Brown needs to get things in gear for this team to get going. One of the major reasons the Dolphins were on their hot streak towards the end of last season was because of the combination of Williams and Brown. Maybe not having Williamson the team is that big of a difference.

Wide Receivers

Reggie Brown
Stallworth has stole the spotlight from Brown in a quick hurry. Both should keep doing well but Brown should close the gap on Stallworth’s incredible pace. McNabb won’t be slowing down his arm anytime soon, so keep starting both.

Andre Johnson
A guy with as much talent as Johnson’s was not going to be shut down for two years in a row. The Texans are trying to get back to the level they were a few seasons ago, when they finished 7-9. In order to do that Johnson is going to need to become the receiver he should be in the NFL. Teams have been able to throw on the Redskins especially with the deep ball. So expect some great numbers from him this week.

Isaac Bruce
The Cardinals gave up practically a game’s worth of stats in the first two drives to the Seahawks in Darrell Jackson last week. This game might be a throwback to all of the old “Best Show on Turf” fans of fantasy football. The great days of when Warner, Faulk, Holt, and Bruce would all have great fantasy games. Translate that to now, that mean Bulger, Jackson, Holt, and Bruce. This should be a back and forth offensive contest with plenty of scoring action.

Week Two Selections

Here are Notjustagame.com’s week two selections.

Last week’s record: 11-4

Tampa Bay +6
Philadelphia -3
Carolina +1.5
Miami -6.5
Houston +14
Green Bay +2.5
Baltimore -13
Detroit +7
Cincinnati -10
St. Louis -3
Arizona +7
Kansas City +11
Tennessee +12
New England -6.5
Dallas -6
Pittsburgh -2

Here are some guys to take a look at for starting in week two. Notice the athletes are not top tier, we provide the sleeper choices to go with. Just like in week one with Chad Pennington, Frank Gore, etc.

Quarterbacks

Jon Kitna
Roy Williams opened up his mouth about how easy it should have been to score 40 last week. Well they can’t run the football, so that means Kitna will have to utilize Williams. They’ll open it up a bit and expose the Bears secondary.

Philip Rivers
Anyone facing the Titans this season is a good choice to start. Even in his limited throws last week, Rivers looked great. A lot of that has to do with their ability to establish the running game, which will be an easy task to do. Shottenheimer will get Rivers the looks he needs and continue on a slow pace with him.

Brett Favre
If there was a game last season that he went off, it was in the game against New Orleans. Yes, the 52-0 beat down the Packers put on. Favre has a lot to show every week, and should be a bit better with Koren Robinson alongside Donald Driver. He isn’t going to stop his wreckless throws but there should be some good ones as well this week.

Daunte Culpepper
Chris Chambers stats against the Bills last season were exponential. A good third of his stats came against them, including the 15 reception 238 yard performance in December of 05. Culpepper has a stronger arm then Frerotte did. The Dolphins do not have great receivers out there, so Culpepper will be looking for Chambers like he did with Moss in Minnesota. Look for the Chamber ratio to rise weekly.

Running Backs

Kevan Barlow
Pennington was the one doing the scoring for the Jets but that was sort of a mirage. The Jets ball control style is more in the favor of running backs. Barlow will be their goal line and short yardage back. If the Jets can get into the Patriots red zone, expect Barlow to have a couple of touchdowns.

Frank Gore
Even though the Rams defense came up with several turnovers on the Broncos they still had a hard time shutting down the run. Tatum Bell had over 100 yards rushing and Mike Bell near sixty. Gore was one of the most impressive backs week one, and soon that will be a regularity. Gore is the real deal and is benefiting from a solid offensive line.

Samkon Gado
We’re assuming the Texans didn’t swap running backs for nothing. They want Gado to be their starter and he should get carries right away. The Colts rush defense was horrible last week and things will not change that soon. It could be a career day for Mr. Gado.

Chester Taylor
Hutchinson has made an instant impact for the running game and overall confidence for Brad Johnson. Carolina was eaten alive last week by Vick, Dunn, and Norwood, with all having fifty yards or more. With Dan Morgan out, that’s one less threat for Taylor to worry about. Just like in the case of the Jets,

Wide Receivers

Roy Williams
Williams has to respond after opening his mouth. Going up against Nathan Vashar, his teammate in college should help.

Lee Evans
Evans can open up the offense for the Bills whenever he wants. If you track his first couple of seasons he has had some decent games against Miami. Miami’s secondary may be at the weakest level it has been in awhile, so get ready for the Evans show.

Koren Robinson
A suspension is ahead for Robinson, so this will be his value for the next month. At least we’ll see if he can work in the Packers system as quickly as he did in the Vikings.

Eric Parker
He has been lurking on the scene for some time, but never has done much. Gates and LT get so much attention that sooner or later Parker is going to have a huge game. Will it be this week?

Week one wasn’t just an ugly week on the football field. With eleven road teams winning, Vegas sure as heck cashed in on lots of cash. Last year may have been the year to take favorites on a weekly basis, as they covered 59 percent of the time. If you had done any research though you would have found out that was also the first time that had happened since 1989.

So picking favorites as much as people did in week one is going to land you below .500 on your bets. Notjustagame.com went 10-5, and actually it was 11-4, but we did not change the Washington pick to Minnesota.

After a week like last week it is always key to review how Vegas beat you. There are two key things to look out for, in order to beat the spread. The most important is to not listen to the public. That could be your friends, television, newspaper, or whatever gets thrown into your ears. Secondly, don’t assume that a game is a lock. There is never such a thing.

We’ve broke down five games of last week and ranked them accordingly in Vegas gems of spreads. Also all five were Notjustagame wins.

1. Indianapolis Colts -3 at NY Giants
Looking at this spread all week it looked like the trickiest game on the board. The main reason in thinking that was because the spread was not moving. That means even money is keeping that spread from swaying either way. For those that bet on the Giants covering the three points had to of been sick. The Colts were a play away from kneeling the ball and running out the clock, but were stopped and forced to kick a field goal on a third and two. That was the difference in the Giants covering by a point, and losing by two.

2. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals -7 and above
If you bet on this game early on in the week then you got the spread at the wrong time. It kept jumping and jumping as high as nine points. Everyone figured the Cardinals would blow the 49ers out of their new stadium. The hoopla was too much though and the 49ers stayed with the Cardinals the entire game. What made it worse was the Cardinals tacked on a late field goal to gain a ten point lead. The 49ers then quickly ran down and decided to kick a field goal, and do an onside kick. It almost worked on the field as they recovered the onside kick, but it burned the over 77 percent of people, according to Yahoo, that favored the Cardinals minus 7.5.

3. Atlanta at Carolina -5
A team like the Panthers had everyone boosting them up as Super Bowl favorites. When that is happening additional points are going to factor on a teams side for a spread. At Notjustagame.com we did not believe the Falcons would win in convincing fashion but did believe they’d cover the points. It turned out to be an easy win for the Falcons, and another burn to the 76 percent of people that took the Panthers with the points.

4. Denver -4.5 at St. Louis
This spread really did not make any sense. The Broncos usually struggle week one and this game was at St. Louis. They still hadn’t figured out the running game situation and the Rams were healthy again at 100 percent. For some reason 73 percent of the public thought the Broncos would blow out the Rams. It was not a bad choice but never bet high on road favorites, especially in the sloppy expectance of teams in week one. You did not even need the points or to be worried at all if you bet on the Rams in this game.

5. Seattle -6 at Detroit
Here was a game that all you had to do is study the initial line to see something was not right. The linesmakers had this game originally as a four point favorite for the Seahawks. That seemed to be a little odd and a tight setting for a team coming off the Super Bowl. As the line kept going up in the Seahawks favor (83%) it was enough extra points to seem like a safe cover for the Lions. It turned out to be a great cover and almost an underdog upset of the weekend.

The points are in your favor in NFL spreads to utilize. How many times do games come down to the wire? Usually an easy handful of games will come down to a team either trying to tie it up and having a game ending turnover, or getting that late field goal or touchdown to win a game. That means there will be a lot of spreads this season that will be perfectly set for -3.

Do not ever settle for a half point on your bet. If you have a team at -3.5 buy that extra half a point. It’s better to push then lose on a half point, and it will happen if you do not decide too purchase that half point.

Be sure to check out and listen to our week two podcast as we will break down spreads and fantasy matchups for this weekend. Vegas has already planted some double digit booby traps to try to land on people based on week one.