Predictions

Duel Backfields

Friday, 24 July, 2009

By Zack Cimini

Progressively teams have learned to lessen the burden on their feature backs by utilizing their second and third string backs more. Some teams are distributing the ball in the backfield at a higher rate because of the potent combination of skills of their backs. Years ago fantasy owners were scared of this trend. How would they fare having a feature back they weren’t sure of getting the same carries every week? Well, it has actually proven to be a good system. Your back stays healthier more and in the end your statistics add up just where you would want them to be.

You don’t necessarily have to handcuff these guys either. Here is a breakdown of who we think are the top duel backfields in the NFL for 2009.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
After last seasons second half finish there is no doubt these two are the best backfield in the league. When Jake Delhomme couldn’t complete a pass the Panthers changed their offensive philosophy to the Jay Fiedler mode. Hand it off and hand it off some more, and it worked to perfection. These two are fun to watch and will continue to make fantasy owners extremely happy.

Ladainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles
San Diego has quietly been able to have success at the quarterback and running back position based on depth. Two years ago it was with Michael Turner and last year Darren Sproles stepped right in. LT says he is back but if not Sproles showcased that he can get the job done. We’d expect Sproles to be involved with at least 15 touches a game. Expect them to find ways to mix up plays with both of them on the field.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams
The Wildcat opened it for the Dolphins last year, with Brown leading the way. Neither Williams or Brown gained over 1,000 yards but were steady enough to be in the thick of things for fantasy purposes. Both were coming off injury prone years and should be able to build upon a year of being healthy.

Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood
Tuner was by far the biggest bang for the buck for fantasy owners last season. How will he respond to the huge amount of carries he had last season? The answer to that is he may not have to worry as the Falcons will give Norwood more than the 95 he had last year. He averaged a nice 5.1 yards per carry and is a great contrast runner to Turner.

Adrian Peterson and Chestor Taylor
Peterson as we all know is the beast that can’t be contained. During Peterson’s rookie campaign Taylor actually held a good share of the carries. As Peterson has proven himself though, Taylor’s involvement has dwindled by the year. Taylor is a true handcuff back to Peterson, but is still a great number two back.

Right There

Marion Barber and Felix Jones
Willis McGahee and Ray Rice
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown
Chris Wells and Tim Hightower

Trade Impact: Matt Cassel to KC

Friday, 10 July, 2009

By Chris Burrows

With a full season on the books filling in for the injured Tom Brady in the trenches, Matt Cassel was no longer destined to serve his years as a backup QB. Instead the Kansas Chiefs traded their second round draft pick for the 5th season passer who threw for 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns last season for the 11-8 Pats and they plan to completely rebuild their broken offense around the rising QB.

Assuming that you, the fantasy owner, miss out on grabbing top pick Tom Brady for your roster, Matt Cassel is now not only a viable pick—you should grab him near the top—and here’s why.

He’s already a proven talent in the pocket. With just 11 interceptions and a rating of 89.4 that eclipsed even Jay Cutler in 2008, Cassel proved himself as a talented and patient playmaker who is also a reputable leader on the field. He’s coming onto a Kansas City team that has had more than its fair share of trouble at his position and with its renewed confidence that they have a winning QB, the Chiefs can now aggressively build an offense around the former-Pat’s style.

In New England Cassel was comfortable in the air-based offense that garnered him big numbers. That won’t be the case in Kansas City where there is no Wes Welker or Randy Moss to make the short to medium range passes under pressure. At Arrowhead the rushers will be carrying the brunt of the offense with veteran RB Larry Johnson the go-to guy. He hasn’t played a full 16 game season since 2006 but he had two impressive 1700+ yardage seasons in 2005 and 2006. He’s got a good at shot at matching those stats with Cassel at the wheel (and he might be a great sleeper RB for your roster). Jamaal Charles will be proving himself in his soph. pro season opposite Johnson—he’ll be a useful utility player.

Cassel’s offense led all NFL teams in 2008 with 356 total first downs. They did it with a close ratio of passes and rushes (186 and 145 respectively) which should be the case again in KC.

The Chiefs air game won’t be ignored and will probably see a good amount of long-range action. Their top receiver from 2008, TE Tony Gonzalez, went to Atlanta but Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley will continue to hold on to their starting receiver spots. Bowe and Bradley combined for 1,400 yards of offense and 10 TDs in 2008 while the departed Gonzalez himself accounted for 10 TDs last season. The duo of receivers will be getting more catches under Cassel in first and second down situations in medium to long ranges. They should handily put up respectable numbers for Cassel but can’t be counted on like a duo of Welker-Moss could.

The offensive line may be a weak point in the KC offense. They allowed Tyler Thigpen to be sacked 26 times last season and haven’t added much in the draft or off-season (with fifth round pick offensive tackle Chris Brown the one exception). Of course, that may be just what they need to get their act together as a group and perfect their position-playing.

But to improve on their 2-win 2008 season the Chiefs will need a sturdier defense too—and that’s where they’ve already done some major enhancements. They grabbed defensive end Tyson Jackson, defensive tackle Alex Magee and cornerback Donald Washington in the draft—it’s a clear showing of their commitment to fix a defense that allowed 440 points last season.

Also new in town is head coach Todd Haley who has a history as an Offensive Coordinator and Wide Receivers Coach with several teams—most recently he coached the offense of the post-season venturing Cardinals and he may be exactly what the Chiefs need to start a highly productive offense that can pull them out of their winning season draught.

Cassel may be the inspiration that moves Kansas City up from the bottom of the charts. The front office in KC is breathing some life into this stale team and a young offense built around Cassel is just the place to start. Grab Cassel early and you won’t be disappointed.

Cowboys vs. Packers Preview

Wednesday, 28 November, 2007

Provided by Sportsbook.com

There isn’t much that future Hall of Famer Brett Favre hasn’t accomplished in his 17 years as an NFL signal caller. One thing that has eluded him is a victory at Texas Stadium. As a matter of fact Favre is 0-8 in Dallas and he covered the spread in only one of those games. With a 10-1 record this season and a money making 9-1-1 record ATS, at first glance it appears as if the Packers are not getting much love considering they are currently 7 point underdogs. Then again the Cowboys have an equally impressive 10-1 record and are 6-1 ATS versus conference opponents this season.

Combining for almost 60 points a game, the Cowboys and the Packers have the second and fifth highest scoring teams in the NFL. Not surprisingly, they combined to cover the OVER about 68% of the time this season. Historically when they square off, the Over is almost a sure thing. In their last 10 meetings the final score exceeded the Total 9 times. For all of the reasons above, the linesmen at Sportsbook.com have set the Total at a lofty 51.5 points. Despite the high number, 88% of the early bettors at Sportsbook.com believe these teams will continue their trends of putting plenty of points on the scoreboard.

Behind the NFC’s top two passers, expect both teams to air it out early and often. Favre is quieting all of his critics who stated he should have stepped down during the off season. The 38 year old has a career high 101.5 passer rating to go along with 22 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Tony Romo’s numbers are just as if not more impressive with a rating of 105.3 with 29 scores and 13 picks. The Romo to Terrell Owens combo has been the deadliest in the league burning their last four opponents for 537 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Romo-T.O. duo will face off against a tough pair of corners in Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Although the Packers defense could take a huge blow if Woodson isn’t able to play due to a toe injury; he is currently listed as questionable.

With both teams likely to put the ball in the air, putting pressure on the opposing quarterback could determine who will have the inside track on NFC home field advantage. Behind defensive ends Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, the Packers are third in the NFL with 32 sacks. Dallas isn’t too far behind with 30 thanks to linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis.

Log on now to Sportsbook.com to bet on the game of the week. With two 10-1 teams ready to clash, this game is a must watch. For those that can’t decide which side to back, Sportsbook.com will be offering plenty of props for this primetime game.

Brett Favre- Total Passing Yards O/U 315.5

Tony Romo- Total Completions O/U 21.5

Terrell Owens- Total Receptions O/U 6.5

First Score will be? TD -180, Any Other +150

Turkey Day

Thursday, 22 November, 2007

Provided by Sportsbook.com

When glancing at the spreads for Week 12 of the NFL season, one thing immediately jumps out at you: double digit spreads. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, Sportsbook.com is offering both of its double digit spread promotions. With the “Revenge of the Turkeys ” promotion, you will receive an extra 50% bonus on top of your winnings if you back a double digit dog and they win outright. For those that prefer betting heavy favorites Sportsbook.com has something for you too. If you back double digit favorite and they double the spread, again you will receive a 50% bonus to your winning bet. With five double digit spreads to choose from, including two on Thanksgiving, be sure to enter this generous promotion.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

At 9-1 the Pack have a stranglehold on the NFC North and more importantly they are a money making 8-1-1 ATS for 2007. Nonexistent earlier in the season, the Packer running game has improved greatly with the emergence of Ryan Grant. Dinged up, he could be in for a long day as opposing rushers averaged less than 64 yards per game against the Lions over the last four games. The Lions passing defense, on the other hand, ranks 30th in the NFL surrendering almost 258 yards per game so expect the reinvigorated Brett Favre to have another big game. The Lions’ inconsistent offense has a pathetic 43 yards total over the past two games on the ground and will most likely stick to their passing attack yet again. Although the Packers have had some great success over the past decade or so, they are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in Detroit . Sportsbook.com’s early bettors don’t seem too concerned about this trend as an overwhelming 88% of the action is on Green Bay (-3).

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys

Coming off a huge home win versus the Steelers, the Jets will need to pull an even bigger rabbit out of their hat if they expect to knock off the 9-1 Cowboys in Dallas . The Jets’ defense was impressive last weekend shutting down the Steelers but will face an even bigger challenge as Dallas scores 32.4 points per game while the Jets defense allows 27.5 on the road. Dallas looks like it will be without WR Patrick Crayton; however, Tony Romo will still have T.O. at his services which matters most. Over the last four games, the two have connected for 575 yards and 8 scores. Jets’ RB Thomas Jones was the first RB to rush for over 100 yards against the Steelers last weekend. He’ll have his work cut out for him again as the Dallas “D” allows just 84.3 yards per game on the ground. By looking at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as if bettors feel last week’s performance against the Steelers was an aberration as only 19% of the early bettors see value in the Jets (+14).

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons

Having lost two of their three games and almost all three, the banged up Colts are struggling mightily. Hitting the road to play the 3-7 Falcons seems like a good recipe for a cure. That doesn’t necessarily make them an automatic bet however. Against teams with a losing record, the Colts are 0-5 ATS this season while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of at least 10.5 points. The Colts usually explosive offense is averaging just 18 points over the past three games while Peyton Manning has tossed 8 interceptions to only 3 TD’s in those games. Atlanta ’s pass defense has been stellar recently holding their last three opponents to under 156 yards. Their rushing defense, on the other hand, is pretty vulnerable yielding 124 yards to opposing teams so expect a heavy dose of Joseph Addai yet again. Given the Colts’ recent struggles it is surprising that 89% of the early bettors are backing them (-12) but then again we all know how much the public loves the favorites.

Sportsbook.com NCAA Top 10

Tuesday, 6 November, 2007

Sportsbook.com’s College Basketball Top 10

With the NCAA Men’s basketball season underway, here is how the Sportsbook.com’s Top 10 with odds to cut down the nets next April:

1. UNC 6-1

The Tar Heels are absolutely loaded with All-American candidates headed by C Tyler Hansbrough (18.9 pts, 7.9 reb). Sophomore guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington both averaged double figures as freshmen and might be the best backcourt in the country.

2. UCLA 6-1

The Bruins are loaded and ready to make a run at their third consecutive Final Four appearance. Freshman C Kevin Love is a beast and should make an immediate impact on the low blocks. He’ll team with one of the top point guards in the nation Darren Collison (12.7 ppg, 5.7 ast) and swingman Josh Shipp (13.3 ppg).

3. Memphis 7-1

As usual, coach Calipari will have plenty of athletes at his disposal. Center Joey Dorsey is a beast on the boards (9.4 reb) and is complimented nicely with junior guard Chris Douglass-Roberts (15.4 ppg). Keep an eye on a couple of freshman guards in Jeff Robinson and Derrick Rose. Both are perfect for the Tigers offense and will contribute from day 1.

4. Kansas 10-1

Despite his intentions of entering the NBA early last season, swingman Brandon Rush (13.8 ppg) will return due to offseason knee surgery. With Rush, there is no shortage of perimeter talent on the Jayhawks roster including Mario Chalmers (12.2 ppg), Russell Robinson (7.2 ppg) and Sherron Collins (9.3 ppg). The frontcourt is a bit thin although Darrell Arthur is coming off and impressive freshman campaign.

5. Tennessee 12-1

Tennessee won’t have a problem putting points on the board as Iowa transfer Tyler Smith (14.9 ppg) joins fellow forward Wayne Chism (9.1 ppg) in the frontcourt. Chris Lofton (20.8 ppg) leads a talented group of guards which includes JaJuan Smith (15.2 ppg) and Ramar Smith (10.7 ppg).

6. Georgetown 15-1

Four starters return from last year’s Final Four team including 7’2” Roy Hibbert (12.9 ppg). Forward DaJuan Summers (9.2 ppg) had an impressive freshman year and could explode. The backcourt is loaded with returning starters Jessie Sapp (9.1 ppg) and Jonathan Wallace (11.4 ppg) joined by freshmen difference makers Chris Wright and Austin Freeman.

7. Louisville 15-1

The Cardinals are absolutely loaded and have a balanced attack but will need to stay healthy to take it to the next level. Forward Terrance Williams was the team’s leading scorer and will play alongside Edgar Sosa (11.4) and Jerry Smith on the perimeter. Up front, any combination of Juan Palacios (8.9 ppg), David Padgett (9.5), Derrick Caracter (8.9 ppg) and Earl Clark (5.9 ppg) can compete with any frontcourt in the country.

8. Indiana 20-1

Senior Forward D.J. White (13.8 ppg, 7.3 reb) is a legit All-American candidate. JUCO AA Jamarcus Ellis should make an immediate splash from the small forward spot. Another newcomer, Eric Gordon is one of the top freshmen in the country and should light it up from day 1.

9. Michigan State 20-1

All five starters return including All-American shooting guard Drew Neitzel (18.1 ppg). Point guard Travis Walton is a steady floor leader and small forward Raymar Morgan (11.7 ppg) is a dependable second scoring option. Freshmen Durrell Summers, Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen should all add much needed help off the bench.

10. Duke 35-1

The Blue Devils are set on the perimeter with returning starters Greg Paulus (11.8 ppg), Gerald Henderson (6.8 ppg) and Jon Scheyer (12.2 ppg). The frontcourt, on the other hand, is another matter. Freshman Kyle Singler is expected to contribute immediately and is definitely talented enough to start. Either Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek, both sophomores, will need to become more of a factor if the Devils expect to make a run come March.

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Sportsbook.com NBA Preview

Tuesday, 30 October, 2007

Between the referee scandal, Kobe ’s never ending fed with management and Greg Oden’s season ending injury it has been an eventful off-season for NBA fans. Thankfully it is time to forget about all of the drama and get on with the games. Winning their third title in five years, the San Antonio Spurs are Sportsbook.com’s co-favorite at 9-2 to cut down the nets next spring. Sharing the favorite label with the Spurs will be the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. In case you’ve forgotten, the Mavs had the highest regular season win total but crapped out early in the playoffs getting upset in the opening round. No team made more noise and catapulted their ranking better than the Boston Celtics (7-1) during the off-season. By adding perennial All-Stars Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to a line up which already has Paul Pierce, the Celtics have and extremely impressive threesome. Questions about depth and age are definitely a concern in Beantown.

With his new home, Garnett is the 5-1 favorite along with LeBron James to win the MVP award. The best value might be backing Tim Duncan at 10-1 considering he continues to post dominant numbers and more importantly his team wins year after year.

With Oden’s rookie season down the toilet, bettors at Sportsbook.com are extremely confident that Seattle Sonics’ Kevin Durant (1-2) will earn the Rookie of the Year award. It is hard to blame them considering the sick numbers he put up during his freshman year at Texas .

Be sure to log on to Sportsbook.com to check out all of the NBA futures available. Whether you like to bet on the divisional winners or who will lead the league in assists, there are future bets available for every NBA bettor. Also don’t forget to sign up for all of the NBA promotions at Sportsbook.com; below is a quick description on how you can increase your profits this NBA season.

Overtime Blues

If you backed the UNDER and it fails to cover as a result of the game going to overtime, 50% of your original stake will be refunded via bonus.

Man on Fire

If a player scores 50+ points and you back his team, you will receive an extra 50% bonus if they cover the spread.

Finally be sure to enter the “Quadruple Double Futures Promo” and the lucrative “Beat the House Promo”.