By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Besides the common stock piling injuries the reason we draft for depth is matchups and bye week fill ins. Usually though, owners will fill their lineups in and subject themselves to wait on backup defenses and kickers. After getting that strong kicker and defense you assume to start them every single week, until you look up and see you’ve got your defense or kicker on a bye week. This week teams are Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Arizona. Assuming you have any of those teams kickers or defenses, we will help you scour the waiver wire for a one week fill in for a kicker or defense.

Defenses That Should Be Available With Solid Matchups

Houston (4% Owned in Yahoo)
The Texans are giving up points left and right, but at times will fill up the stats via their special teams and strong pass rushers. A way to get off their slump is the perfect matchup, and they have that this week against the Oakland Raiders. Jamarcus Russell’s completion percentage for a starting quarterback is likely on pace for a record low. His passing stats so far have been 12 of 30, 7 of 24, and 12 of 21. With the Texans offense putting up points rapidly it’s going to put even more pressure on Russell, as the Raiders defense has been doing a solid job keeping them in games. This is a must pickup for fantasy owners looking for a defense for a week. You’ll likely get two to three turnovers and four sacks, and possibly a defensive/or special teams touchdown.

Cincinnati (13% Owned in Yahoo)
What’s been keeping the Bengals in games isn’t the offense it has been the defense. The offense is coming around late to provide a story line but the defense is playing solid the entire game. Against the Broncos the fluke play we all have come to know cost them a 12-7 loss. The defense then caused chaos for the Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers sacking him a bunch of times. Currently the Bengals have ten sacks and that’s where the majority of their defensive fantasy points have come from. They’re only defensive interception came this past week against Ben Roethlisberger which they took back to the house. By facing the Cleveland Browns this week, who have yet to announce they’re starting quarterback, is going to be a favorable matchup. Whoever is chosen as starter between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson is going to have a ton of pressure to deliver. Since this is the umpteenth time this has been tossed back and forth between the two, it’s obvious neither has been good at handling the pressure.

Buffalo (9% owned in Yahoo)
Chad Henne will get his first start as Chad Pennington will be out for the year. Henne came in relief for Pennington in the third quarter in their game against the Chargers. He looked very uncomfortable and threw one pick that was brought back for a touchdown. A couple other throws could have been picked as well. Miami will have a methodical approach to try to prevent from Henne having to win the game. Terrell Owens and the Bills will look to put Miami down early, and get TO involved early and often after last weeks disaster. The Dolphins do not have the fire power to come back from a deficit larger than a touchdown. On paper the Bills should have no problem jumping out on Miami. This will force Henne to have to make some plays with his arm, and make for a delightful day for the Buffalo secondary. Miami’s receivers are the worst in the league, and have a very difficult time getting open. This spells trouble for Henne and will make for a year similar to 2007 for the Dolphins.

Kickers

Lawrence Tynes (60% Owned in Yahoo)

Tynes get to kick against the Chiefs who have been giving up an average of 28 points a game. A number that would likely be higher if they didn’t face the Raiders who only scored 13. Tynes has been busy thus far this season and should continue booting PATs and field goals this week.

Jay Feely (6% Owned in Yahoo)

Feely hasn’t done much so far with only five field goals. Against the New Orleans Saints the Jets are surely going to have to put up points to compete with the high power Saints. The Jets have been above average currently in the red zone which should average out and give Feely more of an opportunity to boot field goals. He is definitely worth a look at this week though.

Josh Scobee (4% Owned in Yahoo)

Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has opened up things for the Jacksonville Jaguars offensively. David Garrard seems to be delivering and has a new target in Mike Sims-Walker. Tennessee’s strong point is stopping the run and have been vulnerable through the air. Garrard will be airing it out more to test out the Titans secondary. Scobee has missed a few field goals but one was over 50 yards. Historically the Jaguars and Titans usually play each other tough. Both need this win strongly. When a team is in the red zone expect defenses to turn it up even more to prevent a touchdown. It’ll be a field goal fare for both teams.

By Ted Cahill

Two weeks into the NFL season and we’re approaching panic time. Maybe not for the big boys, but for the fantasy owners.

For everyone out there that’s 0-2 headed into this week, hopefully we’ll be able to provide you with some quality advice to post that first W and start your path to the playoffs. As usual this isn’t to tell you to start Drew Brees or to sit Brady Quinn. You should be able to handle those moves on your own. Instead we’ll handle the more borderline questions every owner faces week in and week out.

Start

Ryan Grant, Packers at St. Louis
The Rams are allowing 4.4 yards per carry, not a bad deal for Grant. St. Louis’ defense is downright awful, so expect Green Bay to get up big early. If that happens, Grant should see the ball often.

Baltimore running backs vs. Cleveland
Equally bad on defense are the Browns. It’s pretty much impossible to know which Ravens’ running back will see more carries, but you really can’t go wrong when playing the Browns, who are allowing 5.6 yards per carry.

Matt Schaub, Texans vs. Jacksonville
Schaub has been something of a disappointment so far this year, which fits his team as well. But the Jaguars have not been good in pass defense this year and have just one sack so far. Schaub will have plenty of time to find his targets. That is especially good news since Kevin Walter is expected to return from his hamstring injury this weekend.

Hines Ward, Steelers at Cincinnati
The Steelers simply haven’t been able to run the ball this year. They’ll clearly try again this week to get their running backs going, but if that fails Hines Ward will be there to save the day. He’ll also benefit from Santonio Holmes’ wrist injury.

Sit

Donnie Avery, Rams vs. Green Bay
Avery hasn’t done much so far this year, only catching seven passes for 50 yards. In addition, Avery has fumbled twice already. It won’t get any better this week, facing a Packers’ defense that has six interceptions and allows 217 passing yards a game.

Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings vs. San Francisco
The Vikings might be looking to air it out a little more this week, but the 49ers have an excellent linebacking group. After Seattle tight end John Carlson was held to just 46 yards last week this doesn’t look like a good matchup for Shiancoe.

Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers vs. Giants
Two weeks into the season, New York has the second-worst run defense in the league. With Tampa Bay’s talented running backs, there shouldn’t be a need for Leftwich to throw as much as he has been. Justin Tuck’s injury is a plus for Leftwich, but I’d stay away from him this week.

Colts running backs at Arizona
This just is an awful matchup for Indianapolis. They’re only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and Arizona is giving up only 2.5 yards per carry. This looks like another week of Peyton Manning gun-slinging for the Colts. Stay away from Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.

Matchup to watch: Adrian Peterson vs. San Francisco defense

The 49ers have been very good against the run so far this year, but Peterson is the best running back in the league. He should be able to eclipse the 2.7 yards per carry San Francisco is allowing, but this game will show just how good their defense is.

San Francisco has yet to face a good, physical back but stopping Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells and Julius Jones in their tracks is something to be proud of.

Pickup of the Week: Broncos defense at Oakland

Pretty much the surprise defense of the season this year gets an easy matchup in Oakland. The Raiders are reeling as usual and the Broncos should be able to take advantage of this rivalry game.

Denver has forced five fumbles and allowed only 13 points so far. They haven’t faced prolific offenses (Cincinnati and Cleveland), but this week’s test is no different.

By Chris Burrows

Not sure when to put in that second-rate back or receiver that you picked up? Not sure which defenses to avoid picking up? Well here are the defenses around the league that will increase your offensive players’ numbers if they come face to face and that you should avoid adding to your own roster at all costs.

1. Houston Texans
To say that the defense in Houston is having issues would be an understatement. At the beginning of September first-time defensive coordinator Frank Bush was still unsure who would be getting the starting jobs and the secondary was a complete question mark. Pro Bowler Mario Williams’ return to the defensive end position seems to be the only sure thing with rookie first-round pick Brian Cushing, who was set to start at strongside linebacker, still out with a knee injury. There are also open defensive tackle position and cornerback positions that are proving hard to fill among injuries and CB Deljuan Robinson’s hiatus from the team. All of these problems will make overcoming their 23rd ranked rush-blocking in 2008 difficult and will give big games to opponents and their RBs.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are notoriously bad at stopping the air-game. That shouldn’t change in 2009. They are another team experimenting with a 3-4 hybrid defense but they don’t seem to have the personnel to capitalize on it with their starting CB from 2008, Brian Williams, going to Atlanta and cut several other members of the squad. They’ve shown a proclivity in the preseason for their lack of pass-rush and only managed one sack in three games.

3. St. Louis Rams
Steve Spagnuolo is trying to pick up the pieces of a defense that allowed 465 points and was ranked 30th last season. New strong safety James Butler is an effective and important piece of it but it’s definitely a year for rebuilding under former-defensive coordinator Spagnuolo. Look for some improvement but St. Louis should continue to struggle to stop the run game to a harsh extent.

4. Kansas City Chiefs
Second in almost every “worst of” category only to Detroit, the Chiefs have managed to stay on-task between seasons and have shown incredible improvement in preseason play (despite the absent offense).

Head Coach Todd Haley announced a new 3-4 defense during the off-season that veteran players would have to adjust to—and it seems to be working. The Chiefs have allowed just 64 points and pulled off seven sacks in their four losses. But with their offense a major concern, expect Kansas City’s defensive squad to suffer under long on-field stints—they will likely spend a lot more time on the field than the offense and that’s enough to wear any defense down to nothing.

5. Arizona Cardinals
A middle of the road defense in 2008, the Cardinals have revealed manifold issues defensively after going 0-4 in their four preseason games in 2009 and allowing a whopping 47 more total points than they scored—and that can’t all be blamed on Warner’s sputtering offensive unit. Though the pass-rush has been a pleasant side-effect in AZ, their pass-stopping abilities haven’t been. Something needs to happen in Arizona before the train goes flying off the tracks.

6. Detroit Lions
Experts disagree on whether or not the Lions actually had a defensive squad last season. Whatever they had, it led the NFL in total yards allowed, yards per game allowed, total rushing yards allowed, points allowed, least interceptions (4), and games lost with 16. Also, they only had 30 sacks. Expect some progress to be made in this season with Jim Schwartz—former successful Titans defensive coordinator—taking over the helm.

Some summer additions will depth to this formerly abysmal defense. Rookie Safety Louis Delmas, new Cornerbacks Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry, and a new defensive line will all help to scale back their outrageous ’08 numbers—they’ve only allowed 76 points so far in the preseason—but don’t expect them to be fantasy-worthy just yet. Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson, and other RBs will get the chance to rack up some big numbers vs. Detroit again in ’09.

7. Cleveland Browns
There are some bright spots in Cleveland—new LB D’Qwell Jackson comes to the squad after leading the league in total tackles, and the new 3-4 defense under Eric Mangini should help stop the all-so-important rushing game of the AFC north. But weaknesses in some key holes may be their downfall—the safety and cornerback positions are notorious Browns weak points. The team allowed the fifth most points of defenses in 2008 and 70 points in four games so far this season. If your second-stringer RB is going up against the Browns—put him in.

Sleeper bad defenses to avoid:

Tennessee Titans
The Titans have allowed 104 preseason points so far after 2008 saw them lose Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth and coordinator Jim Schwartz to #4 on this list.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles aren’t the force that they were last year after losing some real meat and potatoes players: safety Brian Dawkins, linebacker Stewart Bradley, and defensive mastermind Jim Johnson are all gone.

By Zack Cimini

Lets face it busts are bound to happen via fantasy football drafts just like NFL drafts. Sure, you can yap away with smack talk right now…your roster looks great on paper. Projections, mock drafts, and prior statistical seasons have you giddy on what your team is about to do. Well, trends say otherwise. More than likely your team is going to have a plethora of early round busts, and injuries piling up by the end of September.

A true fantasy guru keeps their season alive by the depth of sleeper picks and star studded handcuffs for insurance. We don’t need to delve too far into the drafts that haunted you, but will list some names and hear the echoes of disgust of the past. Tom Brady, LT, Steven Jackson (07, 08), Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, etc.

Our list below doesn’t necessarily mean we expect them to be a flat out bust. We do though anticipate their complete all around fantasy seasons falling short of expectations.

As always send us an email with questions or comments at notjustagame23@gmail.com

1. Brian Westbrook
Another trend back that has hit that wall is Westbrook. At 30, undersized and a back that has fought through numerous injuries throughout his career. Add two more offseason surgeries for 2009 and we smell trouble. Westbrook’s 06 and 07 seasons with over 2,000 all purpose yards and double digit touchdowns isn’t on his fantasy spectrum potential anymore. As a projected second round pick and possibly late first round pick there is better value out there. Draft McCoy and the retro Westbrook numbers may come close with the two combined, but then again you shouldn’t have to be thinking that scenario with a high draft pick.

2. Peyton Manning
The aura of Peyton Manning has fantasy owners hypnotized to be on the trigger to grab him. Our philosophy on this is why be the one to take the bait and grab him with your second round pick? His 2004 crazy world MVP numbers are long gone. He is going to be a weekly steady performer but why not grab a strong elite first tier wide receiver or get that second running back tandem? Manning has to deal with a new head coach and not having his safety net receiver Marvin Harrison anymore. We’re just saying you should use your second round pick wisely, as you can get a quarterback that will put up near Manning numbers (Rodgers, Romo, Warner, Cutler, McNabb) in the fourth, fifth, and even possibly sixth rounds.

3. Michael Turner
Turner had a career year last season and now he is expected to duplicate or go beyond that. There’s too many variables to see that happen so well with the combination of yards and touchdowns. Matt Ryan will throw more touchdowns and utilize his red zone target in Tony Gonzalez.

4. Ladainian Tomlinson
The RBBC style that was a pattern for the last three years is now set on just about every NFL roster. Protecting their star back and having a solid backup is the way to carry a strong running game all season, and also has cut back on injuries. LT wasn’t able to be a beneficiary back to this strategy and the miles may have taken its toll. Just look at your basic top 25-30 fantasy running backs and what jumps out at you? The most glaring is that LT is the only back averaging 320 plus carries a year. You can look at it from a multiple season stretch or further but LT leads the league by far in mileage. Only Clinton Portis comes close but he missed most of the 2006 season. After a dip like LT had last year it’s not just injuries that cause that. The wear and tear of the past eight seasons has got to him.

5. Terrell Owens
TO’s high ranking fantasy value has never been largely based on his receptions and yardage totals. He did have a career year in 2007 but that was in a dynamic offense. People are truly expecting Owens to not miss a beat and to be the difference for Buffalo. TO has always been a touchdown machine, a double digit threat basically every season. That’s what warranted TO as a top ten fantasy receiver. Insert Trent Edwards as his quarterback and let the thunderous laughs begin. Edwards hardly managed to throw for DOUBLE DIGIT touchdowns last season (11), so how on Earth is TO going to get his owners fantasy value? We all know the type of attitude that TO can display as well once he isn’t getting what he wants. His value will drop all season. If he happens to start off the year well, fantasy owners better wisely offer trade bait early and often.

6. Tom Brady
Stop reveling and drooling on Brady’s 2007 season. Magical seasons have happened before for Manning, Marino, and Warner. Besides Warner none ever really came close to those magical touchdown numbers. Brady will get between 30-35, but the 40-50 range isn’t going to happen. That 07 season the Patriots rarely ran the football and it was a free for all air day exhibit every Sunday. Brady does look good and healthy, but it’s PRESEASON. Defensive game plans start week one.

7. Frank Gore
We’ve been waiting for Gore too bounce back for two years now, and he keeps disappointing. The 49ers wised up and drafted back Glen Coffee who has been fantastic in preseason. There are a few reasons why Gore has entered our list. One of the mains is that he has played in a division that has been the poorest in terms of talent but hasn’t distinguished himself enough. Playing the Cards, Rams, and Seahawks for a total of six games a year should be have been enough to catapult Gore as a sure lock top five back. Another reason is Gore’s never been a main touchdown threat, and that’s what is the most vital for owners. Who wants to see Gore have 100-120 yards and see your opponents back get two touchdowns and 60-70 yards and still gain on you?

8. T. J. Houshmandzadeh
Housh received a lot of money to go to Seattle but is on a team that has some serious offensive question marks. Their running back tandem of Julius Jones and Edgerrin James is without a doubt the worst in the league. His starting quarterback is coming off serious back surgery and yet still has likely the worst offensive line in the league heading into the 09 season. Teams aren’t ever going to load the box to stop the run against Seattle, which means more easily designed coverages to prevent Housh from making big plays. Housh’s yards per catch have never been stellar and has dropped every season over the last five years. His bread and butter has always been in the red zone, and with an offense with as many issues as Seattle that’ll be a hard area for them to get or finish off drives.

9. Thomas Jones
Aging, being disgruntled, and the drafting off a younger back are all signs that we have to wave the danger flag. At 31, Jones truly showed what the Arizona Cardinals were hoping when they drafted him in 2000. Jones has been surprisingly steady but not enough in the touchdown category. If he could boost his production out of the backfield, he could be a strong number two. The Jets though have an assured primary third down back in Leon Washington. Factor in the growing pains of Mark Sanchez and Jones could be in for a tough year in the trenches.

10. Eddie Royal
Do not expect Royal to be the huge sleeper everyone is talking about, especially with Brandon Marshall’s issues. If Royal has to be the number one he’ll be easily shut down. The Broncos do not scare anyone with Kyle Orton as their quarterback and Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokely as their other wide receivers. That means all the attention is centered on Royal. A guy that hit his sophomore slump before his rookie season even ended. He finished out the second part of last season with a horrid last seven games, catching only one touchdown pass.

By Zack Cimini

Scouring newspapers and the internet for fantasy newsworthy tidbits is what we do in this business. Usually it’s related specifically to players but occasionally we stumble across something story worthy. The Wall Street Journal came out with an interesting blurb on trends having to do with the drafting of offensive lineman. That trend is teams that selected an offensive lineman within the first twelve picks of the draft have seen their team’s yards per play increase immediately.

You instantly react to that by thinking, no way, as most of those teams are right back in the top of the draft the next season. Actually though eleven teams since 2001 that have selected a lineman within the first twelve picks have done just that. It’s an absolutely crazy statistic and some of the examples are noted below.

Dolphins, Jake Long, YPP Improvement: 1.1
Browns, Joe Thomas, YPP Improvement: 1.0
Raiders, Robert Gallery, YPP Improvement: .9
Broncos, Ryan Clady, YPP Improvement: .5

There are many variables to this fact but the key is the results. Having that staple on your offensive line is the key to success and always has been for an offense. Also usually when a team decides it’s time to draft a lineman they also look at signing free agents as well on the line. They’ll also maybe even switch offensive line coordinators to get things renewed and refocused. As a quarterback they need to develop that faith and trust in their lineman, which boosts their pocket presence. When he doesn’t have to be under duress that extra split second for the receiver to get open is crucial. The quarterback is allowed to go through his progressions properly and throughout the game will get into a rhythm. This also lets the offensive coordinator have more freedom with play call selection, which means bigger plays down the field.

From the running back perspective, once that elite young lineman is selected that’s where they’re going to turn to run between the tackles. This also helps with the effectiveness of play action. Based on the 2009 draft it’s going to be interesting to see if this plays out again. We’re almost certain all three should, especially the Rams and Bengals. Both teams last year’s normal starting quarterbacks were banged up and out the majority of the season. This led to drives that couldn’t be sustained and poor time of possession.

In Jacksonville, David Garrard really struggled after a solid 2007 season. With Eugene Monroe in there now he should feel a little more comfortable and utilize his newly acquired receiver in Torry Holt. All in all, it’s good to know this if you’re a MJD owner as his productivity should only go up based on the trends of the last eight years.

By Zack Cimini

Last year saw a free agent running back get his pay day and a starting spot for an NFL team. No one knew where to project him as a fantasy running back, and figured the team would struggle due to numerous variables. Yet this team stormed to a revival and became an overnight success story. There is no question this back should now be a first round fantasy selection, but buyer beware……beware.

Michael Turner had an incredible year that allowed Matt Ryan to be a rookie, and make plays only when needed. Carrying the ball at nearly 400 times gave Turner the output you’d expect from that amount of carries, with 17 touchdowns and nearly 1700 yards. He also led the league in yards after initial contact. At his size he has a rare combination of adding on yards when there is nothing.

At 27, Turner feels he can keep going at last year’s pace without worrying about his body breaking down. Reason for that is he was a primary backup for years in San Diego, so actually feels like he has only played one season. A good season at that, but will the Falcons actually keep Turner’s pace of carries that high?

We think they’ll lessen the load for a few reasons. One, Matt Ryan will be more comfortable with the teams system. It’s not that Ryan didn’t throw a lot last season, as he had many games where he threw in the high twenties for attempts. The x-factor where they’d pull Ryan back a bit came within the red-zone. For a quarterback that threw as much as he did, Ryan only had 16 touchdown passes. Another peculiar stat on Ryan’s touchdown throws is that most of them came on big plays.

That’ll change in a hurry now that the Falcons brought in tight end, Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been one of the best red zone targets for over a decade now, and doesn’t seem to have lost anything physically. Double check the amount of touchdowns Ryan threw to a tight end last season. Still looking? That’s right……zero. If Gonzalez hovers around his average for touchdowns a season (7), how many touchdowns will this take away from Turner? It could be a bigger impact than fantasy owners think drafting Turner as a top three fantasy back.

For being fourth in the league in points, the Atlanta Falcons red zone efficiency was amazing. Can they sustain that success within the red zone?

Ready for the third clincher on why Turner’s season a year ago will come down from fantasy craziness? Jerious Norwood. Norwood is a back that has averaged over 5 yards a carry the last three seasons with minimal touches. He makes a big play on a high rate average usually a long burner. Sooner or later the Falcons are going to have to figure a way to make more plays for him. He can’t continue to get 100 carries a season, as he is too productive.

They have figured a way to get him more involved out of the backfield as his catches per year have went up to a career high 36 last season. Last year he had 131 complete touches and scored six touchdowns. More than anything you’d have to expect the Falcons to protect their premier back in Turner by not overworking him. This team is talented and will need to have him energized for a second burst come playoff time. If not a season low average and yards per carry could happen once again in the first round of the playoffs (2.3 ypc for 42 yards against the Cardinals).