Fantasy Football: Five Players to Upgrade and Downgrade

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Upgrades

Russ Wilson
Wilson was impressive in orchestrating a rout against the Green Bay Packers Thursday. He seems to be ready to elevate his game to another level that should be fantasy friendly. He has always talked the talk with proper interviews and now it’s translating onto the field.

Andy Dalton
The Bengals could have folded as a team offensively with the way the game tracked. In fact most of the time when you see teams give away a lead they fold with under six minutes to go. After five first half field goals and a missed sixth attempt, the Bengals found themselves down 16-15 with under six minutes. Dalton stayed poised and delivered a game winning touchdown bomb to AJ Green. He may not be a post season quarterback just yet, but he has shown through the years to be a steady fantasy quarterback in the regular season.

Codarrelle Patterson
Maybe the Vikings have something going that the rest of the league will follow suit with. They originally drafted Percy Harvin for his speed and shiftiness in the open field. It worked for a few seasons out of the backfield and at wide receiver before he ended up in Seattle. It looks like the Vikings had another route in mind when they landed Patterson. His speed and open field ability is on another level. Fantasy owners that got him as a relative mid round pick are grinning from ear to ear.

Markus Wheaton
It wasn’t the offense of the Steelers that impressed me, it was the defense. From a fantasy football players perspective you have to love the fact that the Steelers defense is still in shambles. They nearly allowed the Browns to come all the way back and win the game. But knowing that the defense is still a work in progress means that the Steelers will continue to throw a lot offensively. That boosts Wheaton who had nearly 100 yards receiving on six catches Sunday.

Pierre Thomas
Most draftees of Thomas were able to land him as their fourth running back and best flex option. The Saints have shown that they don’t mind feeding the ball to Thomas out of the backfield, as he was great in this area last season. When they decided to bring him back many people were not sure if it would be in the same capacity. After seven carries for 30 yards and seven catches for nearly 60 yards, those questions have been answered.

Downgrades

Ben Tate
Tate owners are extremely displeased with his early season injury against the Steelers. Though he will likely return soon he already has the injury bug tabbed on him from his Houston days. Owners better find a way to trade for Terrance West if you do not have him already. West came in and showcased that he can handle the load with sixteen carries for 100 yards against the Steelers.

Vincent Jackson
The problems with Tampa Bay’s week one performance are not going to resolve themselves in one or two games. Josh McCown had a couple of awful interceptions and really never got back into gear after the first turnover. Obviously if McCown continues to struggle it’s going to have a downgraded effect to Jackson. You have to move him down until the team shows better promise. Right now the offense would rank dead last from what I saw this week.

Doug Martin
Doug Martin seems to be heading down Steve Slaton territory. He came out of nowhere to have one stellar season. Owners drafted him high last year with injuries ending that season. Promise for a comeback based on his season two years ago looks far fetched after week one. He ran the ball nine times for just nine yards. A bad game against the Panthers isn’t something to overreact about, but Martin has a steep hill to climb to get anywhere near the value he was drafted for.

Trent Richardson
Richardson seems to be attacking aggressively but just doesn’t have the gear to get out of the hole. It’s hard to tell if Richardson can get in gear if Indianapolis always digs themselves a hole. But his downward progression has been going on for over a year now. Sooner or later the Colts are going to run out of patience as fantasy owners are.

Jamaal Charles
Last month I profiled how backs falter under Andy Reid. It’s been a problem for over ten years. Kansas City’s offense was the second worst in week one behind the Buccaneers. Charles is the type of back though that can have five or six great games to offset this type of performance. His low carries though from week one have to be alarming.

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By the end of week two I will do a fantasy football video show before the games start. But for now I’ll go ahead and take care of fantasy football news and notes regarding injuries before you set that final fantasy football lineup at 12:59PMEST/9:59PST.

Andre Ellington
I tabbed Ellington in the offseason and preseason as a guy to downgrade. I wasn’t expecting an injury this early but his foot injury leaves him as a no-go for this week. There is no reason to await head coach Bruce Arians decision to play Ellington. Utilize the rest of your depth and bypass Ellington completely. It was first reported that Ellington would miss four to six weeks.

Sammy Watkins
I’m not as down on Watkins for his status week one against the Bears. He was good to go in practice and although getting hit in the rib area is never great, teams now have the gear to protect that area. We’ve seen quarterbacks play with rib injuries and still get hit hard in that area. Watkins isn’t going to catch the ball more than five or six times. He’ll protect his body and be fine against Chicago. If you’re light at the receiver position go ahead and insert him.

Kenny Stills
This injury to Stills regarding his quad will keep him out this week against Atlanta. Stills is still just a bench reserve until we see more consistency out of him. Last year he broke out in a string of games but that was it. Those thinking to start Brandin Cooks are probably getting giddy just a tad bit early. His role will be just like Stills a year ago. A speed decoy for Brees to find deep occasionally. Unless that home run ball hits your going to be stuck with a low amount of points from Stills.

Terrance Williams
Williams back injury should not keep him out against the 49ers. You never know how a back will respond until action takes place. It’s something Williams owners will have to watch week to week. But after time off Williams is young enough that his back should hold up. The question will be if he can for the entire season.

Cam Newton
Who knows what Ron Rivera and Cam Newton are discussing hours before kickoff. The point spread has not moved and is still stuck at 2.5. If Vegas isn’t reacting than why is the fantasy football world getting caught up in a stir. This is a rib injury that quarterbacks have played through countless times. I believe Newton will go and it’ll be up to the Panthers offensive line to dictate how long he stays in. If Tampa Bay is able to hit Newton early than we may see Derek Anderson. Either way Newton has always been a matchup starter. This week with his health a major question you have to sit him. Carolina will likely relegate his main asset of rushing the football to avoid his big frame being subjected to hits.

Rob Gronkowski
Is he ready for a full season in a Patriots uniform? We haven’t seen Gronkowski achieve that since that days of being paired up with Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez was one of the reasons why Gronkowski flourished the way he did, as he was a nightmare to cover himself. Now we have to see how fresh Gronkowski is after several injuries. It should be expected for Gronkowski to hold little value this week unless he gets into the end zone. But with Gronkowski expected to play 30-50% of snaps that will draw Miami’s attention. Sit Gronkowski this week.

Cecil Shorts
Jacksonville will rely on their young rookie receivers with Shorts out. Jacksonville has surprised before with emerging receivers but there is no reason to jump on the “could be” band wagon in week one for fantasy football. There aren’t enough injuries around the league to do so. No one should own any Jaguar currently beneath Shorts in fantasy leagues.

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Who to start and who to sit? The infamous weekly debate to be had in every worthy fantasy football league throughout the country. Part of the problem early on in the season is trusting your team as a whole. Do you lack confidence in a certain position or an unreliable likely starter? Probably. We all have holes in are teams, but their is a skill in diagnosing that and getting the most out of your team.

It starts with knowing who to sit rather than start. If you can diagnose to sit three to four names on your team, it leaves the rest of your roster breakdown manageable.

Lets take a look at week one and some names that I would sit.

Cam Newton
Newton is one of those quarterbacks that drives fantasy owners nuts early on in the season. But somehow he ends up being a staple towards the midpoint and end of season. Carolina just doesn’t have enough assets at receiver to deploy Newton as a starter week one. He has been slipping in fantasy drafts because of this. We also need to see how healthy Newton is out of the gate. I expect him to still be a top five quarterback by seasons end, but he has to be downgraded week one.

Tom Brady
If there’s one team in the division that Brady has struggled against it has been Miami. Both games last season could have easily been won by the Dolphins, as they teams split. With Rob Gronkowski on the field how will their chemistry be? It’s not easy to hit that on switch with limited on field experience in two seasons.

Marques Colston
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the youth develop quickly at wide receiver for the Saints, with Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks. Colston is still being picked as if he is Brees’s top weapon at wide receiver. Injuries and the dominance of Jimmy Graham have sort of balanced out Colston’s fading value. On one hand he has stayed in the limelight because of the attention Graham gets. On the other he should have been a much higher recipient if you actually break it down further. He hasn’t been and that’s why the Saints have spent picks trying to upgrade the position.

Jeremy Maclin
Eyes have lit up on buyers of Eagles players in fantasy drafts just because of the brand of football Chip Kelly plays. Lets tone that down a bit with Jeremy Maclin. He has been injury prone and has yet to establish himself in Kelly’s new offense or with starter Nick Foles. Over time he may be a solid wide receiver three starter, but until then Riley Cooper holds higher value for Philadelphia.

Others: CJ Spiller, Le’Veon Bell, Tony Romo, Michael Floyd, and Joe Flacco

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Updated Lines view via Don Best

Notre Dame comes into this season with high hopes and a number seventeen ranking in the country. They have a tough road ahead of them this year and it starts with Rice. They come in as three touchdown favorites at -21.

Sometimes negative media attention can be an attractive buy early on in the season. I think this situation calls for that type of scenario. Media outlets have had their way with Notre Dame having issues holding their academics to the high standards the program has set. The latest issue was just a few weeks ago involving several players.

Take a look at today’s featured college football play under today’s picks. I’m 3-0 thus far on the college football season and have a fourth circled for Saturday. It will be a good ole fashioned opening college football Saturday blowout. Grab this play for just $25.

The fact of the matter is a few players do not overrule an entire team. Last year the team survived without Everett Goldson. After watching Tommy Rees play for years, I don’t think anyone would of expected the type of season he had a year ago as a senior. The bottom line is, a school of Notre Dame’s caliber has backup plans for backup plans. Replacements can step in and handle their assignments.

Facing Rice is going to be another test but one they should breeze through. It’s one thing to rip through Conference USA and another to step outside of your conference. Last year Rice lost all three matches outside of their conference, including a butt-whooping against Mississippi State in a bowl game.

Rice will lean on junior quarterback, Driphus Jackson. Jackson has had starts before as a freshman and even led Rice to a bowl game win over Air Force that season.

But as stated the experience and talent of the Irish trump this current line. It may not be a runaway but I’d trust Notre Dame’s defense to force enough turnovers to set the offense up for easy scores. Play the Irish -21.

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Yesterday was a pretty straight forward day for most handicappers. Many have reported a great start to the season on Thursday. On to Friday though where the slate looks to be a bit more difficult. One game on the board is Villanova vs Syracuse. This game has had a shift in point spread movement.

Just a few days ago the point spread was 15.5 only to move yesterday to 18.5. Who knows what set off the spark but the line has since come back down to 15.5. It’s comparable to a hot stock that takes off and doesn’t have an end point. Once that end point is hit buyers realize it has exceeded its proper value.

Syracuse has been one of those .500 teams that sneaks into bowl games since the Doug Marrone era. They’ve done so by replicating the model of many up and coming teams, and that is too schedule early opponents that they can grab wins against.

This strategy has worked well for Syracuse over the last three years. Though there have been a few close calls, like a narrow win over Stony Brook a few seasons ago.

Villanova played decent against Boston College to open the season last year, losing 28-14.

Syracuse made it to a bowl game last year largely because of their defense and dynamic duo at running back. Using Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley led to wins over NC State, Wake Forest, and Maryland. Second year quarterback, Terrelle Hunt, just didn’t play like a starting quarterback last season.

He was given the job over 5th year transfer Drew Allen, after Allen struggled mightily early in the season. Hunt wasn’t much better but he did not turn the football over. That ball control style worked against a weak ACC conference with a formidable Syracuse defense.

Syracuse did lose quite a few key players defensively. We saw last night in South Carolina that replacing defensive players is harder than it looks.

This spread would not be on my top plays for Friday, as the spread is too high in my opinion. I don’t have enough faith in Villanova’s offense or defense to back them either.