Predictions

Vick Starting by Week Six

Monday, 14 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

One agent that deserves strong praise is that of Michael Vick’s. Away from the game over a year he landed Vick a contract over a million last year, and an option of 5.2 million for the second year. Well the Eagles brought him back after almost everyone expected them to part ways. That salary will make Vick one of the highest paid backups in the NFL. Pressure is on the young first year starting quarterback Kevin Kolb.

He knows the team made a huge sacrifice and gutsy move by parting ways with one of the biggest Eagles franchise players since the 80’s in Donovan McNabb. Playing in Philadelphia comes with expected results. Wins. Kolb needs to go out and produce from week one onward. If not guess who is awaiting in the wings to get out there and showcase his redemption attempt as a starting quarterback? Mr. Vick.

Last year was sort of like a tune up for Vick. We all know his capabilities and what his old weaknesses were. Those likely will not change. After all his time off though he looked out of gear sort of like when Michael Jordan came back in 1995 after a huge layoff playing baseball. Now that Vick has familiarized himself and been active in football like drills daily, his sense of the game is going to reappear on a stronger level. The Eagles must of saw some flashes of Vick’s old self or the project of brining him back would have ended abruptly.

Right now the Eagles have no clue what direction they’re headed. They will know by mid to late October though. This franchise is either getting turned over to Kevin Kolb or Michael Vick. The game of toying with Vick as a decoy and specially utilized player ten times a game will not happen anymore. It caused more harm to the flow of the teams overall chemistry than Andy Reid would of liked in 2009. Plus Vick is no longer the third string quarterback. As a backup entering 2010 they need to protect their insurance in case Kolb lands out with an injury. They surely do not want to have to start Mike Kafka.

Showcasing what the Eagles have done from a front office stand point it leaves them with options. They’re believing Kevin Kolb can get the job done but are they? They extended his contract that was set to expire after this year only an extra season. The value is only 12.2 million for both those years. Not the top of the heap when it comes to starting quarterbacks money. Vick will be making nearly just as much this season. Call it more of an investment strategy where the Eagles spent a combined 11 million to figure things out.

Fantasy discussions of Vick are premature but he will be a factor this season. It’s hard to name a first year starter that has come out and lit afire from the gate. It just does not happen and won’t for Kevin Kolb. There’s just a lot more things they can go wrong instead of go his way. Donovan McNabb basically led the Eagles to the playoffs like clockwork every season.

Bordering at or below .500 will only raise the pressure on Kolb and reasons to see Vick in action. If Kolb gets the team rolling, how will the typical string of losses affect him as they happen? Some quarterbacks fight it off and others succumb and fold even further. It’ll be interesting to see what happens but Vick will be ready to go. Once he gets out there what type of quarterback will we see? We think Vick can flourish in the Eagles system and create havoc just like he did a few years ago. This is not a dream like turn of events story that we envision happening. This is business related. You can see where this is headed with a binocular view from general manager Tom Heckert’s press box.

I’ll Wait

Tuesday, 8 June, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Strategizing for a fantasy football draft is good in all until your plan gets thwarted by other owners. Certain players fall off the board and in panic mode you scramble and reach for other picks you think won’t be there. It’s happened to all of us. Then come the end of the draft you realize you have a glaring gaping hole. For most it comes square at the position of quarterback. Owners get immersed in adding that sure fire depth to the running back and wide receiver position that they bypass a quarterback for several rounds. Depending on the size of your league sometimes that works to your advantage.

It does not matter if you’re in an eight, ten, twelve, or fourteen team league, once all owners have their primary quarterback they tend to wait three to four rounds before drafting a backup. This gap of rounds provides the necessary leverage for yourself to take advantage. Sometimes it works, and sometimes you’re stuck throwing Kyle Orton or Jake Delhomme out there. It’s probably a scenario you want to avoid if at all possible. Some of you just do not learn, and were going to take a look at some quarterbacks that owners will risk carrying their fantasy team on a week to week basis. Get use to weeks of hit or miss. Yeah we’re talking those weeks where your cursing up a storm when a point total of six is put up by your quarterback.

If you can get your hands on two of these guys below, you could start spot them enough to set up favorable matchups and get quality starts. It’s almost like setting up bye week fillers. Quarterbacks on this list last year were Matt Schaub now a top five fantasy quarterback, Brett Favre, and Joe Flacco who will all likely be considered top ten fantasy quarterbacks.

Chad Henne- From what Henne showed he can be an elite quarterback with the right direction and proper progression on his part. He possesses the quarterback smarts to learn by the week, and did a dandy of a job for being thrown in after Pennington’s injury. He has an organization backing him 100 percent, and the physical tools to be a fantasy number one. His youth and inexperience will scare of owners this year. We still like him to grow and be a quarterback you can become more at ease with starting as the season goes on. Having Brandon Marshall out there does not hurt either.

Kevin Kolb- Based on Andy Reid’s coaching tenure in the NFL we know he tends to have a disproportionate ratio of passes compared to run plays. Kolb may not lead the league in certain quarterback categories, but we can bet he will be close to the top in attempts. That has to be a bright sign for fantasy owners as some of the quarterbacks we’d like to rank higher are cut down a few notches because of their offensive system. You do not have to worry about that with Kolb. Interceptions will come in bunches with Kolb but that territory is nothing alarming as we all expect it due to his inexperience.

Matthew Stafford- Toughness, heart, and determination were just some of the traits Stafford showed in his debut season. While his rookie year was cut short he threw some throws that just have future Pro Bowler written all over the guy. Detroit has been working on retooling the team to get Stafford a strong supporting cast. He has the receivers and newly drafted running back Javhid Best will add a flare of unique abilities for Stafford. Best’s skill set is not like a back the Lions have had in who knows how many years. Stafford is not a guy you would probably want as your number one, but he’ll have certain weeks where he will be a top ten or higher fantasy quarterback. Probably more than anticipated.

Donovan McNabb- For some reason McNabb’s draft stock in fantasy drafts has slipped the last few seasons just as his fanfare in Philadelphia has. Besides the occasion game where McNabb can’t hit a target if it were five feet in front of him, he is rather consistent for the most part. Those games are inexplicable, but McNabb has the obvious driving force to this season. Departing from Philadelphia was not what he wanted and he is set to pull a Brett Favre resurrection as Favre did in his actual favorable destination in Minnesota. Washington is stocked at running back and McNabb will find a way to develop his receivers as he did with mediocre receivers for the majority of his career in Philly.

 

 

Others that deserve a glance with binoculars

* Jason Campbell- Will he adjust and fit in well? Oakland’s always been a tough place for quarterbacks but Campbell is not a young quarterback anymore. He is a veteran at age 28 and should be ready for this type of stability that Washington never could grant him.

* Ben Roethlisberger- The media will be all over him from training camp onward, heck they already are. Will the constant questioning wear on him, or can he move on and let his game on the field speak for itself? He has a lot to prove to doubters and fantasy owners have to keep in mind a minimum four game suspension if the original six gets reduced.

* David Garrard- Garrard’s been a fantasy tease on occasion and is probably the league leader in inconsistency. You just don’t know what you’re going to get from him. We thought he’d see some type of increase once Dirk Koetter came aboard as the offensive coordinator. After all Koetter came from the potent Arizona State offensive system as their college coach. Garrard just has not excelled enough entering the crossroads of his career. It’s hard to believe he is only one year younger than Donovan McNabb.

Cuse Connection

Sunday, 6 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

When you think of Syracuse football the first thing that comes to mind is, do they play football there anymore. The program has been in disarray since 2000. Long gone are the days of Marvin Harrison, Rob Konrad, Donovan McNabb, and Dwight Freeney. Talented players that use to commit to Syracuse are finding their ways to Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and other opposing conference teams. Attracting prospects and turning them from a blue chip to a stud is what Syracuse footballs main challenge has been. That’s harder said than done, and the program has stunk it up the past decade.

Last year the team regained some notoriety even though losing was still apart of the fold. They hired Doug Marrone former Saints offensive coordinator to take over head coaching duties. Then a laughable story at first in bringing in Greg Paulus to quarterback the team actually fared decent. Paulus had a rough go at stretches but brought fans back to the Carrier Dome to watch football, and had them in many games they could of won. Paulus has now worked himself an opportunity to make the Saints team after getting an invite to training camp.

A prime reason for Paulus’s ascent and climb throughout last year at Syracuse was because of wide receiver Mike Williams. Williams stretched defenses and gave Paulus a safety net of trust on any type of throw. Paulus could air out a median type of pass or the quick throw and Williams would not disappoint. How else could you explain a quarterback that was held for hardly any yards throwing including only 36 passing yards in the second half against Minnesota, to a week later throwing for 346 yards? That just doesn’t happen. Take a glance at the guy who ate up over 200 yards receiving with two touchdowns in that game, Mike Williams.

Williams had a tumultuous ride at Syracuse. While the team was being dismantled on the field, Williams showed a glimmer of hope for Syracuse fans. As a sophomore he caught a touchdown in nine straight games in 2007. That’s when the off the field issues begun. He was suspended for the 2008 season for academic reasons,  and had to rededicate himself by enrolling at a nearby community college. This type of story has happened to many of athletes and some just give up. Even with how embarrassing the matter was Williams got his grades up and showed enough for Syracuse to reinstate him for 2009.

Last year was going fine for Williams and it seemed as if he did not miss a beat. Talks around college football began to label him as a potential first or second round pick, and a top talent receiver. Towards the end of the season things began to unravel again for Williams. As Syracuse’s chances for a bowl exited the team also began to deviate from rules laid down by head coach Marrone. Players on the team including Williams had went to a casino in New York and been involved in a minor accident. That led to a suspension imposed on all the players. Instead of facing the suspension Williams decided to quit the team. With only a few left he figured there was no value in finishing out the year as he had plans to put his name in the NFL Draft anyways.

You could see why his stock slipped and why teams were weary in adding him to their team. Williams fell all the way to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth round, but has every opportunity to show NFL franchises what they missed out on. Tampa Bay is going to give him a chance to win a starting job. The team has a lot of question marks especially offensively, and Williams will have his work cut out against opposing secondary’s. That’s nothing different from the way it was at Syracuse where teams tried to slow him down but couldn’t.

If Williams can stay out of trouble he is going to be a solid fantasy receiver in his first season. Tampa Bay is going to be down in a lot of ball games. That will open the door for Williams to get additional junk yardage and possible touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Out of the receivers selected this year Williams could end up being of the highest value right behind Dez Bryant. Call it crazy for a fourth round pick, but Williams has been bucking trends ever since he stepped foot at a Syracuse school that hasn’t seen his type of talent in years.

Does Moss Have the Drive?

Friday, 4 June, 2010

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Randy Moss is at the top of most lists for one of the best receivers to ever play in the NFL. He came into the NFL with the placement tag of being a project with issues. None of that was seen from week one onward in 1998. He took the league by storm and had NFL franchise owners thinking what did I do not selecting him. Throughout it all though the issues that were highlighted on Moss negatively have bore existence throughout his NFL career. By him parting ways with his agent and his future with the Patriots in limbo, how will he perform in 2010?

For all three teams Moss has played with there has been a point where we have witnessed him slow down. Minnesota it came  With Minnesota it came with the unraveling of Culpepper and his injuries piled with his need to move on from the franchise. At Oakland he seemed to be in hibernation from the get go besides an opening day tease where he caught a long bomb against the Patriots. His 2006 season there will be like a great musicians lengthy career. Down the road they always release tracks that didn’t come out during their glory days because it just wasn’t top notch material then. That 2006 year was mixed in between twelve tremendous seasons thus far. When highlights of Moss are displayed of his illustrious career there will be few clips of silver and black footage.

With the Patriots Moss found the winning type of organization that brought him back to elite level. Last year though one game  was spotlighted that brought remarks out of Moss to shut down the media. A guy that is averaging well over double digit touchdowns on a yearly basis and pairs it with his yardage numbers deserves a downer of a game here and there. He is human, and expecting nothing but statistical excellence is what people have come to expect.

What ignites Randy Moss is winning not proving people wrong. He feeds off of winning as do most NFL players. We’ve seen Moss turn up an extra gear of speed to catch a deep ball, and we’ve also seen him short arm a throw and give up on routes. After last years disappointing season many believe the Patriots are an aged veteran team needing a reshaping. Moss surprisingly is entering his 13th year in the league and at this stage in his career it takes a concerted effort to be ready on a weekly basis.

The natural gifted abilities he has can not be turned off and on when he wants. He is in an eastern climate where it is even rougher on the body and muscles to get loose for a rigorous sixteen game season. He has on more than one occasion voiced that this will likely be his last season as a Patriot. The organization has not begun talks with him on extending a new deal and it appears that Moss may be right. Signing an athlete to a mega deal entering his fourteenth year would be hard pressed for a smart organization as the Pats. How will this affect Moss’s 2010 season?

Based on his past experiences signs are  not looking too good. In Moss’s last season with both the Vikings and Raiders they proved to be his worst seasons in the NFL. Those two teams were also the worst two teams he has had to play on in his NFL career. Even at that there are plenty of high profile athletes that have had great seasons on poor teams, just ask Andre Johnson. For a guy of Moss’s caliber a let down should not of occurred. Looking deeper into the situation those years was the fact that Moss simply tuned himself out physically and mentally. A deadly combo that turned him into a Jerry Porter.

When Tom Brady is your quarterback the excuses can not be formed. If Moss shuts down on a third team during his last year with hit than it will show his selfish nature. The Patriots will likely be a winning team unlike those other two franchise during those years so we do not see that happening at that type of level. Look out if the Patriots hit an unforeseen bump. When are projections for fantasy receivers come out Moss likely will be a bit further down on our list than most. Not drastically down but enough too make fantasy owners think.

Jacobs Has To Prove Himself To Doubters

Tuesday, 25 May, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Originally the mold of Brandon Jacobs looked like a linebacker just bulldozing over men his equal size. At around the same time Jerome Bettis was retiring, Jacobs looked like the guy too carry the big men can be brute crushing backs torch. Jacobs showed in his breakout 2008 year that he had the nimbleness and speed to go along with his punishing size. Going into the 2009 season the departure of Derrick Ward only brightened fantasy owners expectations for a strong season from Brandon Jacobs. Before even stepping onto the field owners at least thought strong numbers in the touchdown category were a lock.

He was coming off an astonishing breakout year in 2008 where he totaled 15 touchdowns and annihilated defenses in the second half of games. Stacking yards and easily moving the chains for the Giants. From week one though Jacobs looked as if he had lost two to three gears to his 08 self. Word would later come out that he played the entire year with knee “issues”. As backs get older in their carries playing through injury issues is just a common theme. Staying productive isn’t. Is Jacobs the type of back that can produce playing through the various types of typical injuries that seemingly don’t go away for a back?

In 2009 he just did not have the same shiftiness and quick feet able to get out of the backfield. He seemed to be in a standstill each handoff, and in a span of a year may have caught “Eddie George” syndrome. Even his usual knack to get short yards for the Giants was cutback. As the year went on it was apparent that he was not going to snap out of his funk. Was it the fact that he did not have Derrick Ward as a neutralizer to opposing defenses? The perfect back to offset his skillset for when he entered the backfield. We find that unlikely as towards the second half of last season you could see the Giants tinkering with getting Ahmad Bradshaw more involved. In fact, Bradshaw practically surpassed Jacobs yardage numbers with much less carries, and did in the touchdown department.

Whatever the case may be for Jacobs last season to go a whole entire year being ineffective stands out. Blame the year on an imbalance and growing learning patterns between a young core of receivers and Eli Manning; we just won’t. Jacobs lacked the explosiveness and hardly ever made it out of the back field. His typical way of barreling over defenders and tacking on extra yards just did not happen. Instead he was supplanted and cut down with ease. We will factor his knee issue into the equation but fantasy owners must realize his 08 form may never return.

It is odd though that the Giants decided to go forth without any signings or draft picks to get Jacobs worried. They still plan on trying the Jacobs/Bradshaw show again. The organization is banking on the fact that Jacobs was nicked up with knee injuries that he tried to play through. Jacobs underwent off-season knee surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus. An injury he admitted to trying to play through the entire season. Shouldn’t that be more of a red flag to the Giants?

Word around Jacobs conditions and recovery have been rather quiet. Even if he is able to come in fresh we do not see a back of his size able to sustain a beating for seventeen games. There is just too much wear and tear at that size and a huge target for defenders to drill into. It’s hard enough for most backs to stay healthy an entire season. Jacobs value is up and the air but we’d be safe with him as your second fantasy back, and a back with high upside as your third. Hopefully he can bring about numbers somewhere in the range of his 2008 and 2009 season. That would satisfy fantasy owners and bring a value that is hard to come by consistently for fantasy owners, which is touchdowns.

LT’s Role as a Jet

Sunday, 23 May, 2010

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Stardom as an NFL athlete has shifted from the typical patterns of past greats. A superior athlete in previous generations could ride out that wave of talent for the majority of their career. The tail end truly was that and everyone knew it. Nowadays though teams increased training and aggressive regimens on top of youthful talent flowing in prime shape, careers are having interesting endings. Shaun Alexander literally went from MVP form too not able to run through an alley the size of Jamarcus Russell.

The NFL is a business and teams are going to ride a talented player as much as they can to try and secure that extra win. LT was that workhorse for the San Diego Chargers for a multitude of years and somehow never showed signs of wearing down. Signs weren’t there on the field but the projections based upon his numerous high piled seasons of carries and percentage of involvement in the teams plays was overwhelming.

In 2008, LT staved off injuries that were perceived to the media as slowing him down. Everyone didn’t look at LT’s play as true signs of him losing a piece of his top tier skills. Instead his mere 1100 yards with double digit touchdowns were seen as a warrior like type of year. A year most backs would have missed a string of games and burned disappointed fantasy owners.

The wake up call for the Chargers and everyone was when the keeping or letting LT go talks began. The organization has bit themselves before by letting elite athletes walk away after development had been done with them. Drew Brees and in the case of a running back, Michael Turner, ring a bell. If the Chargers had forked the deal they should of too Turner maybe the Chargers would have had the right mix of ingredients to get closer to a title.

Ownership wised up last year and thought they would not let a Turner type situation develop with a walk out the door and gone view for Darren Sproles. He added an extra spice to their 2008 team that shocked the world and stormed back for an 8-8 season and upset of the Colts. They franchised Sproles but underneath that franchise tag was the teams untrue thoughts on LT. They knew he was not the same back anymore but rather than say that they tried to hide through Sproles. Obviously the team shifted drastically from a pro-run offense in 2009 to a team that relied heavily on Philip Rivers arm.

This day and age that doesn’t work, and getting barely over 1,000 combined rushing yards between LT and Sproles was far below the teams expecations. The mere numbers were strong enough signs to the organization they had to move forward and reconfigure pieces to the puzzle. A shakeup had to happen and that meant letting LT depart. With the strong contenders in the NFL having backfields with seemingly two capable starters, seeing LT (3.3 ypc), and Sproles (3.7 ypc) wasn’t cutting it.

The move was the right move and LT now gets a chance to build a brighter ending to his legacy than foiling extra years in San Diego. He is going to be 32 once the 2010 season begins, but he is on a Jets team that has been one of the best in the league in the ground game. Even though LT will be behind Shonn Greene, it’s a suitable spot based upon the Mark Sanchez’s youth.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jets try to rush the football upwards of 40-45 times a game. A number the team reached or passed on a weekly basis once they controlled Mark Sanchez’s pass attempts. Including fifty seven team rush attempts week seventeen.

Head coach Rex Ryan shifted the Jets season by turning the football into the hands of Leon Washington, Thomas Jones, and Shonn Greene last season. Two-thirds of that second half season resurgence are gone. One area LT hasn’t backed down a bit on is scoring touchdowns. He is still a double digit threat but there are variables to look at for LT as a Jet compared to being a Charger.

San Diego was a quick score high octane offense that never let up. Touchdown drives were plentiful and the team ranked near the top of the league in scoring. The Jets are more of a ball control style team. We think those are significant factors to look at for LT’s 2010 season with the Jets, but it should even out based on the fact that Rivers outdid Sanchez in touchdown passes by more than double. So when the Jets do score it’s typically going to be a rushing touchdown.

For 2010 LT should be a sharp fantasy producer. His value is still strong as he will probably get 10-15 carries a game and has a prime shot at getting double digit touchdowns once again. Being in New York they love to have the spotlight on stars. Don’t be surprised to see the Jets give him extra chances near the goal line to get the extra exposure of getting in the end zone.