By Zack Cimini
notjustagame23@gmail.com

Fist pump and a loud boooya to your fantasy buddies at halftime and halfway through the third. Celebratory because you’re up forty to fifty points. At ease because you’ve dominated your match up and you look like you’ve wrapped up a W. Only to see that lead trickle and trickle away. Like a college basketball team up twenty and poof it’s gone in the final seconds. It happens weekly too drive fantasy owners nuts.

One of the areas teams can pick up tallying points is in the fourth quarter of sloppy blown out games. Just because a team doesn’t look good for Vegas lines, doesn’t mean individual athletes don’t have upside in fantasy value. Especially at receiver, where defenses will give up chunks of yards in quick fashion down the field with a big lead. Here are some highlighted quarterback to receiver athletes this week that have a solid chance at piling up numbers late in the third and fourth quarters.

Of course this hurts the value of a fantasy running back on these teams, as teams will not be running the football trying to play catch up.

Duos:

Kevin Kolb-Earl Doucet
I expect the Cardinals to struggle vs. the Redskins. They may hang around for a few quarters but it’ll be a tough outing for the defense. Things just do not get corrected in a span of a week with how woeful they were against Cam Newton. Tim Hightower will establish the ground game, and take the Cardinals game plan away from them. That means airing it out like they typically do. Look for Kolb to have a big day through the air and Doucet to have a second straight solid week.

Philip Rivers-Malcolm Floyd
San Diego’s rush offense may not break the top twenty this year. That means Philip Rivers should easily stay afloat as a top five fantasy quarterback. Average receivers such as Malcolm Floyd then balloon to legitimate second options at fantasy receiver. This will be a shootout. Floyd received plenty of balls his way week one, and should see that surpassed week two. With the way the Patriots are piling up points, a big hole could be foreseeable. Floyd could have a multiple touchdown game.

Chad Henne-Davone Bess
Even when the Dolphins are blown out, their offense moves at a snails pace. There is no hurry up to the Dolphins attack. They’re fine with having Henne check the ball down to his favorite safe target in Davone Bess. Bess is becoming a PPR dynamite player, and with Brandon Marshall looking sharper, Bess could be a weekly double digit average fantasy point receiver.

Cam Newton-Brandon LaFell
The Saints were able to pick on right corner Tramon Williams quite a bit week one. After the blitzing and turnovers turn this game into a rookie lesson for Newton, the fourth quarter should offer at least two to three drives of garbage fantasy numbers. Steve Smith got the big plays week one, but Brandon LaFell quietly had a decent game with seventy yards receiving.

Matt Hasselbeck-Nate Washington
Statement games usually last one game, not in the Ravens case. They’re going to come out and look to stomp over the Titans just like they did week one against the Steelers. The Ravens a year ago had countless let down games against weaker opponents, such as the Browns and Buffalo Bills. They’ll halt Chris Johnson and keep the Titans scoring to a minimum in their second straight blowout victory. On the bright side of week one, Hasselbeck connected with his top two receivers at a good rate. Washington was a main target and had six catches week one.

Last season was truly a solid year against the spread on a weekly basis. Picking the favorite is always the trendy pick, but I like to go against the grain with the contrarian selections. It’s the only way you’re truly going to be above 50% winners when the season is done. Early on in the season is when people think that it’s tough to pick. Not necessarily. Teams that showed rust in the preseason usually carry it over. Where it may not be the optimal time to nail a spread with a team, maybe you should look at the points total instead.

With a Thursday kickoff, it’s not only time to deliver your starting fantasy lineups. It’s also time to submit week one spread selections.

Green Bay at New Orleans +4.5— Pick New Orleans

The last two Super Bowl winners face off in what should be a great opening to the NFL season. Heading to Green Bay is always a tough task for any opponent. Look for the Saints to be competitive from the start. Drew Brees is one of the best leaders in the NFL, and he’ll have this team ready after an embarassing exit in 2010. Look for the upset in this one

Kansas City -6

Matt Cassel’s health should be fine, and I like the way he finished the 2010 season. Dwayne Bowe and Cassel are truly developing into a potent tandem. The Bills just have too many question marks on both sides of the football. Home field edge and uncertainty all around on the Bills, makes this an easy choice.

Chicago Bears +3

Being the home dog is strange, particularly from a team that went to the NFC championship. The Falcons won a lot of games last season, but none were really run away contests. They find ways to win at the end. This one will be tight, but the Bears will deliver in the end.

St. Louis Rams +4.5

This is the trickiest line of the weekend, that many will get suckered into. Don’t. St. Louis is on the rise, and you can’t expect the Eagles offense to click effectively right away. Besides the questions on the offensive line, Vick’s receivers have not really been out on the field for game speed yet. It’ll be a sluggish game that the Rams may win outright. Nothing like a typical week one loss to raise eyebrows and get the media stirring.

Houston Texans -8.5

The Colts don’t have the team tenacity and zeal it needs without Peyton Manning under center. Not having their star quarterback under center is going to affect this veteran laden team. Looking around the roster it may be time to reshuffle in many positions. Including inserting Delone Carter as the starting running back.

Cleveland Browns -6.5

This point spread is a little high for my liking, but they’re going against a Bengals team that is going to start a rookie quarterback. It took Andy Dalton a couple preseason games just to get rid of the jittery bugs. Imagine how he is going to be in his first start?

Baltimore Ravens -1.5

One of the best, if not the best current rivalries in football. Every game is down to the wire. Hence the barely there home point spread edge. Baltimore’s defense is continuing to get older, but they know the secrets of playing this Steelers team. All they need is for Flacco to deliver on a few drives.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2

Many are discounting Luke McCown. He has started in the NFL before and is a seasoned veteran, who has sat on the sidelines without a start for many years. There has to be a last shot mentality clicking in his head to prove himself. Jacksonville has some key weapons including two solid running backs. Starting new quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and being that Chris Johnson has no game action makes this one of our top plays this weekend.

Carolina Panthers +7

Don’t be shocked if Cam Newton gets win one in his first start. I’m not saying Carolina is going to roll off a bunch of wins, but this is one they can snag. Arizona always plays down to the level of their competition sort of like an over rated college basketball team. The Panthers coaching staff will ensure Newton’s designed plays are simplistic to minimize mistakes. For Arizona, you know the exact opposite will occur. They’re going to want to showcase the mega contract quarterback of newly signed Kevin Kolb. Handling that pressure might not be instant for Kolb.

San Francisco -5.5

Seattle’s just going to be a doormat cellar pitiful team all season. Across the board offensively they might have the worst starters in the league at main positions.

NY Giants -3

This is sort of a trap game vs. the spread, but the Giants will get it done with their dynamic ground game. It’s truly amazing to see the transformation Brandon Jacobs made after the horrid start he had last year.

Minnesota Vikings +9

Until it happens we’re not ignoring history. San Diego bites themselves in the rear each and every season with poor starts. You know that is going to be in every Chargers head, and will be shoved down their throats until Sunday. On the other hand, McNabb goes into the year with low expectations. Everyone is saying Minnesota is a horrible team, and McNabb is just a pit stop quarterback. Don’t discount him just yet.

NY Jets -4.5

This will come down to the defenses, and the Jets have proven to be bolstered and well established in that department. Dallas on the other hand always gets the name to change the issue, but the result never shows up on the field.

Miami Dolphins +7

Oddsmakers are giving the Patriots way too much credit in this one. Sure, Chad Henne has not looked like a starting quarterback whatsoever, but he has put together decent games even dating back to last year. New England just doesn’t scare opponents like they use to. Discounting last years blowout losses, Miami typically plays well vs. New England. Reggie Bush will prove to be a better signing than most would have thought. Especially in this game, when Bush can get out in the open field against the slow defenders of New England.

Oakland Raiders +3

The Tim Tebow affect in year two will finally revive Kyle Orton’s true form. That’s poor decision making and pick six’s the other way. Denver has been waiting anxiously for Orton to self destruct so they can be forced to begin the Tim Tebow experiment. A guy can only mentally withstand knowing someone has his job for so long. Don’t forget Darren McFadden’s average last year versus Denver. Nearly 135 yards rushing, and three total touchdowns.

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The NFL thinks they have a proper showcase match up to kickoff the NFL season. There have been some ugly starts in years past. On paper though this game looks very intriguing. Two teams that have stormed to the top of the NFC over the last few years. Both winning Super Bowls by coming out of nowhere to do it. Will these two teams keep going in the right direction or will they fade down to the talent of the rest of the NFC?

Early in the season it’ll be too hard to tell. As Green Bay showed the world last year, it’s all about getting hot at the right time. The offensive fire power of both of these teams, should bode very well for fantasy owners most weeks. Rustiness could be there too start the game, but don’t expect it to linger over more than a few series.

Quarterbacks

There is not much analysis to give here, as both Rodgers and Brees rank atop just about every fantasy football prognosticators draft boards. The only stat that can drive you crazy with either is interceptions. Rodgers displayed great control last year and the ability to scramble for yards when needed. Brees on the other hand seemed to be overwhelmed at times. Too many pass attempts caused him to have an inordinate amount of interceptions. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram and upgraded over Reggie Bush with Darren Sproles. Look for Brees pass attempts to scale back, but for his consistency and big plays too rise off the balance of having a solid running game.

Running Backs

Here lies the uncertainty with both teams. With Green Bay, Ryan Grant is back from injury but his role with Green Bay remains unclear. They’ll likely ease him back depending on how well James Starks handles an increased role. Remember, Starks too was coming off an injury from college that kept him out for a good length of 2010. So there will be a need to have a time share of some sorts. A 60/40 split could be likely. Who the Packers will go too in the red zone is what fantasy owners want to know. At this point, neither should be considered a starter for fantasy purposes. They should be no higher than the third running back option on your team, and fourth in valued depth running back circumstances.

For New Orleans, they’re going to want to showcase their new running backs. As stated earlier they’re going to be more of a run oriented team this season. Mark Ingram has shown he is going to be able to make the transition from college back to NFL with ease. This will not be a year one breakdown like CJ Spiller and Ryan Matthews last year. We would start Ingram this week as your second option in twelve or fourteen team leagues, and in well managed ten team drafts. Sproles has always been a home run guy, but has heightened value in high scoring games. He could be a flex starter in deep leagues this week. As a short dump off, could turn into a long gainer.

Wide Receivers

Greg Jennings, check. He is an automatic top weapon to start each and every week. That is why you drafted him as an owner. Zero uncertainty on a weekly basis. Do not get to over analytical when it comes to starting your studs. A down week will average out over the long haul. Those extra yards and touchdowns will be crucial too you. The rest of the Packers depth at receiver seems to be up for grabs. Donald Driver is only aging. He had a sharpe decline in production a year ago, and it’ll likely continue to sputter. Meaning Jordy Nelson and James Jones are guys to keep an eye on. We like Nelson better for the simple fact that Rodgers leaned on him more down the stretch and increasingly as the team got hot. In three playoff games, Nelson had nearly three hundred yards receiving and two touchdowns. Expect that too carry over in 2011.

Week one for the Saints will exclude Lance Moore who is out due to injury. That means everyone’s favorite sleeper wide receiver, Robert Meachem will get a chance to show his value in a starting role. It’s not like he is new to the Saints so he should be boosted up your fantasy starter charts for week one. In fact you have to like Meachem’s value more, because he is more capable of big plays than Marques Colston. Colston reached his peak and has seemed to of lost a step. His size is similar to a tight end, so he uses his position and body more versus corners than anything else. A solid red zone target but never prolific in the yardage category anymore. Going against Green Bay’s tough corners will not bode well for Colston, so are advice is too sit him, and start Meachem.

notjustagame23@gmail.com

The news of the day comes out of Indianapolis. In years past, Peyton Manning’s body was able to recoup just in time to get on the playing field week one. Signing Kerry Collins seemed like a desperation move. Now though it looks like Collins may end up earning that $4 million. Out of all backup quarterbacks over the last few years, Collins seems to always make a substantial amount of starts.

If you’re drafting your money league or bragging rights league in the next few days, here is an updated quarterbacks ranking list.

1. Drew Brees

Brees was one of the quarterbacks that had a major incline in interceptions last season. Twenty two in total in fact. He seemed to have the Brett Favre in him a little too much last year. Maybe it was because of the prior seasons success, that he was a little too care free. Brees gets more freedom than any quarterback in the league. Look for him to get back on the proper page, and aim for over 5,000 yards again.

2. Aaron Rodgers

How will Rodgers handle the success of winning his first Super Bowl? Remember Green Bay got hot as a team on the tail end of last year. It wasn’t a typical Super Bowl run. The good thing for Rodgers is he has many weapons at his disposal. Complementing the aerial attack with a solid ground game will be key to Rodgers staying ranked as a top three quarterback this year.

3. Philip Rivers

The gunslinger with a mouth has been as quiet as a mouse this off-season. Has he matured to the point that he is going to lead this team by his actions from game one? There comes a point when a player with exponential talent puts it together one hundred percent. Not just as an individual but to the extent that his teammates feed off of that and absorb it. Look for the Chargers to get off to a hot start this year.

4. Tom Brady

New England is still capital of the short yardage passing game. They’re so clever at the ways they disguise the lack of a true running game. You would think that would have hurt Brady by now, but they still get the short hot routes delivered with ease. Tight end play is on the upside as well for Brady. Both rookies Gronkowski and Hernandez proved that they’re going to garner more drawn up plays by the Patriots. The only thing scary with Brady is if the offensive line can patch things up and protect him.

5. Mike Vick

Part Two of his incredible comeback starts with mega millions back in the bank. We are a tad bit worried about Vick for multiple reasons. Added pressure to build upon an outstanding 2010 season. Receivers that have been top notch caliber, but Maclin is coming back from a long bout with an undisclosed health issue. DeSean Jackson has been tough his whole career but has had to deal with injuries just about every season. Vick’s age at 31 has not been brought up like it should. His body was able to take the fresh licks last season. Now that he played twelve games for the first time since 2006 it should be very interesting to see how he mid season.

6. Tony Romo

7. Matt Ryan

8. Matt Stafford

9. Matt Schaub

10. Peyton Manning

11. Kevin Kolb

12. Ben Roethlisberger

13. Eli Manning

14. Joe Flacco

15. Sam Bradford

16. Ryan Fitzpatrick

17. Josh Freeman

18. Matt Cassel

19. Jay Cutler

20. Kyle Orton

21. Colt McCoy

22. Rex Grossman

23. Donovan McNabb

24. Mark Sanchez

25. Chad Henne

26. Luke McCown

27. Matt Hasselbeck

28. Jason Campbell

29. Alex Smith

30. Cam Newton

31. Andy Dalton

32. Tavaris Jackson

33. Vince Young

34. John Beck

35. Shaun Hill

36. Jake Locker

 37. David Garrard

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Maybe Tiki Barber can stop waiting by his cell phone for renewed found work in football. Dancing with the stars or a behind the scenes gig looks like his only chance for a job this year. Arizona you would of thought would have been a possibility after Ryan Williams went down for the season. The Cardinals though opted to go the typical way. Wait for a team to cut an athlete that fits their needs.

Chester Taylor has been a solid veteran running back in the NFL. He gave an extra edge as a backup to Adrian Peterson as a Viking, and did his role as a Bear. For those teams there were already formidable backs ahead of Taylor on the depth chart. Dividing up any fantasy relevant carries was not going to happen there.

Sometimes an abrupt change right before the season starts is a good thing. If he wasn’t cut, Taylor just would of rode the bench in Chicago. Now he goes to Arizona where they’ll actually depend upon Taylor right away. The Cardinals starting running back in Beanie Wells has not gained the full support and trust of head coach Ken Whisenhunt.

He has been highly injury prone, and Whisenhunt never could pick his decisive number one back between Hightower and Wells. The Cardinals obviously sent more mixed messages than anything to Wells by drafting Ryan Williams in the second round.

Due to Taylor not registering fantasy relevant numbers for the last three years, we wouldn’t recommend drafting or over reacting to this signing. Especially considering he only gained an average of 2.4 yards per carry last season. Pay attention to how the Cardinals use him the first few games of the season. He should get around the same amount of carries per game as he did as a Bear last year. Lets just hope that he does more with the pigskin to garner a waiver wire acquisition.

With Beanie’s track record with being in and out of the lineup, there’s a good chance Taylor could start around three games this year. Unlike other teams stock piled at running back, the Cardinals aren’t. That would mean Taylor would get the majority if not all carries, besides for certain third down packages for LaRod Stephens-Howling.

By Zack Cimini

All around the locker room typically when a team has a poor season the fingers start pointing at the foundation at quarterback. For the Buffalo Bills last season it was the opposite. They were in the majority of their games because of surprising quarterback play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. He came into the season ranked near the bottom of fantasy quarterback rankings, only too become a fantastic waiver wire pickup and viable fill in starter for teams that were suffering at quarterback.

Gaining confidence from your organization is an ultimate psyche booster. The Alex Smtih treatment the Bills were giving to Trent Edwards finally came to a halt. When the Bills said they have their guy at quarterback as the season unfolded, and in the early off-season, it had to of given Ryan a tremendous boost. Especially this past draft, in which quarterbacks were selected like it was a quarterback sweepstakes in 1999.

Can Fitzpatrick lift his accuracy woes he displayed last year? He only completed 57% of his passes even though he was able to keep defenses off guard?

His rise did come out of no where, since he had opportunities with the Rams and Bengals and didn’t necessarily look like more than a career backup to say the least . The stint with the Rams included an impressive outing against the Houston Texans, but his outings as a Bengal in place of an injured Carson Palmer were awful.

No one could have anticipated Fitzpatrick throwing for eleven touchdowns in his first four starts of the season in 2010.

The I don’t believe it until I see it carried over until that fourth game last year against the Ravens. Fitzpatrick absolutely picked apart the Ravens secondary, with precision and daring throws. His rise led to the catapult of Stevie Johnson, who also shot up the waiver wire to become a more than viable starter. It was apparent that Johnson had become the go to guy, and by dealing Lee Evans, Bills management had must feel secure with Johnson as the number one wide receiver.

Subtract those four games from Fitzpatrick’s year and the year looks blindingly bad. He did not start the first two games, but from week eight on he only threw for multiple touchdown throws twice. There are certain variables that would lead you to believe the reasoning to that. Buffalo never had a consistent running game with CJ Spiller not showing first round pick value as a rookie. Also his decline coincided with the Buffalo winter.

At 28 though, Fitzpatrick is now a capable veteran. Look for him to be the same hot potato type fantasy quarterback as last year. You’ll likely miss out on the four touchdown games, but he will serve his purpose as being a solid fantasy backup quarterback. A bye week filler and worst case injury fill in. Do we see Fitzpatrick throwing for 23 touchdowns in 2011? Maybe not that high. The Bills should get some sort of running game going, that should cut Fitzpatrick’s red zone touchdowns a tad.