Predictions

Will Smith Bypass His Draft-mates?

Monday, 6 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Drafted in the first and second rounds last year at wide receiver were A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Torrey Smith. Each of the rookies endured a successful season comparable to expectations of a rookie. With a mini-camp and training camp unlike last season, will a rise occur in statistics from all of them?

Our infatuation rests in the speed of Torrey Smith. Like the receiver beside him in Anquan Boldin, Smith may bolt up in fantasy receiver rankings; ignoring the fact he was a second round pick. A year ago Smith dotted the fantasy spectrum with his three touchdown performance against the St. Louis Rams, and a masterful game winning catch against the Steelers.

How he caught the majority of his touchdowns were on laser throws from Joe Flacco. That is the area that the connection currently lies between Flacco and Smith. The player that was supposed to stretch the field for the Ravens last year was Lee Evans, which never unfolded the way the Ravens would imagined.

With the big seasons first round picks A.J. Green (1,057 yds, 7 Tds) and Julio Jones (959 Yds, 8 Tds), you would of thought their statistics engulfed Torrey Smith’s. In actuality Smith was right there with both of them. Having near 900 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Neither of the three were high volume catchers, but all did great in the department of yards per catch. Averaging between sixteen and eighteen yards amongst each other.

Smith has the most upside of any of the three going into 2012. For one, the Ravens are going to have to unleash Joe Flacco more than they have. Ray Rice is carrying the load far too much. Giving Flacco an extra five to seven throws a game will be beneficial to Smith. Anquan Boldin still has some years left in the league, but has been right up there with Hines Ward in his physicality at the position. Blocks, runs after the catch, and his overall play has resulted in Boldin teetering down quicker at the receiver position.

The area for improvement you can circle for Smith is caught balls. He only had fifty catches in his rookie season. With his speed in the open field, Baltimore has to figure a way to get him more throws. Expect the possibility of the Ravens inserting the New England Patriots quick read throw at the line of scrimmage. Letting Smith catch the ball at the line of scrimmage and try to toast the corner with a quick cut once the cornerback runs up to him.

Deep ball catches may even rise. Feel comfortable in having Smith as your number two wide receiver. In Atlanta, the Falcons may have too many weapons, including Roddy White who is not going to decline in any facet. Cincinnati is dealing with a new running back tandem and unproven talent at wide receiver behind A.J. Green.

The possibility of Smith outperforming Jones and Green could be a thought to entertain in your fantasy drafts.

Sleeper in the Desert

Sunday, 5 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

There is a running back that should be on all radars. One that did not play a full down last year due to a season ending injury in the pre-season. With a full year of recovery and at worst an expected split load, mark down this running back to keep a watchful eye on your fantasy draft day.

Out in Arizona the main cog for fantasy production has continuously came at wide receiver with Larry Fitzgerald. With quarterbacks over the years such as Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, Kevin Kolb, and John Skelton, Fitz has sidestepped the impossible to maintain fantasy stud status. This year the Cardinals believe they will finally take a post-Kurt Warner step forward.

In order for that to happen better balance offensively will have to occur. The defense has maintained its grit and kept the Cardinals in games. Offensively though the Cardinals are as stagnant as they come for a full four quarters. With a quarterback battle set to take place, the winner will be more interested in how they’ll be protected. Not just from the drop back position, but with a dependable reliable ball carrier.

Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells is a backfield tandem most do not circle or eye for probable fantasy points this upcoming season. Start paying attention. Both have had their injury woes through college and the pros, but it’s time for some good fortune to come to one of them.

Beanie Wells is still on the PUP list. The issue at hand has remained confidential, and Ken Whisenhunt has stated they do not expect Wells to even begin practicing for a couple more weeks. The fact that Wells has not participated in any drills has to raise concerns for expected early season fantasy performance. That opens the door for Ryan Williams to start the year off strong, and gain an advantage in the split backfield. Williams is going to sit out the first preseason Hall of Fame game against New Orleans, but is expected to get carries against Kansas City.

Arizona’s offense was putrid last season but still favorable in the running back department. With the distrust at quarterback they force feed the running back. An offensive trait Whisenhunt has carried over from Pittsburgh to Arizona. Over the course of the year from an injury standpoint, Williams is the home run threat versus Wells who is more of a power back.

If you use a draft strategy where you decide to jump on receivers or quarterbacks early, you’re going to be probing endlessly in desperation for a sleeper at running back. Williams should produce for you in deeper leagues and in standard leagues become a fantasy starter inserted a minimum of five to eight games. That’s even if Wells is fine and starts off the year with shared carries with Williams. Gamble on Williams and roll the dice for value for the long haul of the 2012 season.

NFL: Where To Find Value At Tight End

Friday, 3 August, 2012

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

In years past, even pondering the thought of a rookie quarterback having fantasy value was preposterous. If you wanted to receive under ten points per fantasy game and watch your live fantasy score updates get dinged -2 three to four times a game; then grabbing a rookie quarterback was your own detriment.

The biggest upside would come in the fantasy playoffs. Rookie quarterbacks are finally starting to show confidence in themselves and so is their team. Carefree play with their teams season hopeless for a playoff run benefits them and fantasy owners.

Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and even Christian Ponder made you reverse that type of fantasy draft mind state. Not only did they perform better than anyone could of imagined, many weeks they were in the top twelve or higher for fantasy quarterbacks.

Rumblings for second year woes are in doubters minds. The NFL is a fantasy quarterback friendly haven now. Cam Newton is in a new class himself with the stats that he can put up on the ground and rushing touchdowns.

Andy Dalton though is still in a bubble of question. They had one of the easiest schedules last season. Those were the games that Dalton performed better than average. Against higher competition he tailed off and struggled to make the big throws. Surrounding a young quarterback with a security blanket is what the Bengals did with AJ Green.

Green flourished as a rookie as well last year. The pair is going to have a connection for several years to delight fantasy fans. Behind Green though the team is lacking an offensive punch.

With their present roster, the team screams leaders of three and out possessions in the NFL. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott are names you would expect behind a strong tailback, not weapons of choice for a tandem backfield.

Nonetheless it looks like that will be the backfield the Bengals rely on. For the record, the Bengals did not necessarily have a home run projected threat with Cedric Benson when they signed him as a free agent. He became a pleasant surprise for low value, and that’s the same avenue the Bengals are taking with their new backfield.

Points will likely come through the arm of Andy Dalton. Which will downgrade him a bit as a fantasy quarterback this year. Teams will zero in on his reads and be able to keep much of their attention on AJ Green, as the Bengals have poor depth behind Green. Jordan Shipley, Mohamed Sanu and Armon Binns are going to be the headaches of AJ Green’s nightmares if his season declines in year two.

One player that should benefit will be Jermaine Gresham. The tall athletic target has been a borderline fantasy tight end starter. Deeper leagues he likely was inserted on a weekly basis. 2012 should be the marking of him being inserted into standard leagues. The only other target that Dalton has solid chemistry with is Gresham. As teams pay more attention to Green, Gresham should see many more tosses his way.

In all but one game that Gresham started in last season he had three catches or more. Calculate the expected red zone targets and Gresham should be on your sleeper radar if you decide to wait on snaring a tight end.

Threats to Youth/Veteran Battle in Tennessee

Wednesday, 18 July, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Year one for development for rookie Jake Locker fared well. The Titans knew he needed time to learn and adapt to the NFL level. Instead of throwing him into the lineup they positioned him behind veteran Matt Hasselbeck. Allowing for comfort for Locker, knowing that he would not be forced into the lineup, as what happens with many rookies that are playing behind veteran journeyman quarterbacks.

Year two though for the same quarterback tandem is definitely going to be different. Locker in spot duty showcased freestyle unorthodox skills that adds a different dimension to the Titans offense. Whether throwing on the run or utilizing his legs, Locker proved to be a threat with both abilities. Hasselbeck on the other hand is past his prime but may have a solid few years left in him.

The daunting question arises. Begin building now through bumps with Locker, or continue to try and position? Considering the Titans are in a division with the Colts (Andrew Luck), Jaguars (Blaine Gabbert), and the rising but inconsistent Houston Texans, the plan will likely be too start with Hasselbeck once again.

His numbers were never great last season, but he managed to offset a poor season from Chris Johnson and adjust to playing without big play receiver Kenny Britt. Still, Hasselbeck was unable to stay healthy the full year which has been a pattern dating back to his last few seasons with Seattle. Though he battled through the pain and did not miss a start, management is prepared to insert Locker over an eighty percent Hasselbeck.

Offensive weapons at either quarterbacks disposal is a high area of concern. Somehow the Titans were able to use a platoon of widely unknown receivers with big play receiver Kenny Britt sidelined after a knee injury. The receiver that stepped up the most was Nate Washington. Washington had never been a commodity in fantasy leagues but became a sneaky waiver wire reliable addition. Catching seven touchdowns and having a thousand yard season.

With Kenny Britt just undergoing a second knee procedure July 17th, it will be interesting to see if Britt can be a viable starting receiver. Snaring jump balls and outrunning defenders was Britt’s forte, basically becoming the new Terrell Owens. Statistically based on other athletes that have come off a serious knee injury no matter what sport, you can expect a main decline overall.

For Britt though he can still be a high value touchdown receiver inside the twenty yard line. Especially for the fact that Chris Johnson is not a true red zone threat, and the Titans feed him the ball much more over the way they use to LenDale White in the red zone.

Rookie Kendall Wright will be expected to add a speed element over the top for the Titans offense. He should blend in well. He will have his work cut out for him though learning the offense and likely being a viable part of the offense from the start of the season.

Mentally teams that know there is a likely quarterback change over usually under perform to start the season. Will see if that happens in Tennessee, and which week Locker is inserted.

Fitz Tries Again

Wednesday, 25 April, 2012

 

 

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

 

At a point in your career as a superstar you’re able to voice your opinion to the front office with full range of clarity. If not, a superstar disgruntled on a losing team is a recipe for a bad mix. Chemistry clashes via pouting or underperforming. That can be said for many cornerstone athletes over the years. A few that pop up are the veterans in Terrell Owens and Randy Moss.

 

Franchises have suffered from this. Take the Cincinnati Bengals for example. Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer cried their ways out of Cincinnati. Before them it was Corey Dillon high displeasure with the Bengals that finally allowed him to exit to the Patriots.

 

Some superstar athletes just speak their mind. After Kurt Warner retired and the Cardinals lost free agent receiver Anquan Boldin, the Cardinals offense suffered immensely. Larry Fitzgerald who has likely been the top receiver in the NFL had to suffer through a year with a huge decline in talent around him. His quarterbacks bounced around from the likes of Derek Anderson to rookies in John Skelton and Max Hall. Receivers to thwart the attention off Fitzgerald were Early Doucet and Steve Breaston.

 

The same theme; surrounded talent that had underperformed or had the inexperience to play at the level Larry Fitzgerald needed them to.

 

Then came the off-season of 2010. Fitzgerald went through the same type of training he typically does. Partaking in extensive drills with other receivers throughout the league, including past great Cris Carter. Many knew the Cardinals would have to go another route at quarterback, and Fitzgerald was one that wanted it be well known who he favored.

 

Rumors of quarterbacks such as Marc Bulger and Kyle Orton as possible veteran fill ins circled the rumor mill. Fitzgerald wanted none of that, and began lobbying for Kevin Kolb almost simultaneously. The new rumor was that Fitzgerald was working out and doing pass catching drills with Kolb during the lockout.

 

When the lockout ended, the Cardinals threw a huge contract at Kolb and he was to be the Cardinals mainstay at quarterback for years to come. If only things were that simple. Kolb struggled tremendously to learn a new system, and looked like a rookie almost all of his starts on the field. Injuries began to plague his season, and John Skelton surprisingly became a much more reliable starter.

 

Arizona knows that Kolb may have been the wrong answer, as they were hoping to land Peyton Manning and cut Kolb. Manning could not make his decision quick enough, and rather than be like Miami was without a backup plan for Matt Flynn, the Cardinals accepted year two with Kevin Kolb.

 

Microphones and voice recorders are going to be in the faces of superstar athletes all off-season. Discussions of the NFL Draft is one of many topics reporters are going to ask. When it was asked on who the Cardinals should go after in the first round, Fitzgerald did not shy away. He wants the Cardinals to go after talented Notre Dame prospect, Michael Floyd.

 

Floyd has shown on the field that he can be a special receiver in the NFL. His label of question has nothing to do with his route running or size. It’s his off the field issues, which have been a constant while at Notre Dame. Run ins with alcohol related issues happened on three occasions. Fitzgerald believes he can be the veteran to lend the proper support structure for a rookie in Floyd. Properly train him with his great work habits and lead him off the field as well.

 

The main question this time around. As a front office do you listen to Larry Fitzgerald this time? You’ve done the evaluating as a front office and likely have a solid three to four prospects that you’re eyeing on draft day. Receiver is a need but do they feel they need to use a high value pick for another position, and add a receiver in latter rounds?

 

Draft day is just about a day away, and Fitzgerald just recently voiced his opinion. This time around I believe the Cardinals will go with who they have rated the highest on their draft board. Whether that be Floyd or not.

NFL: Finding Fantasy Points at Wide Receiver

Saturday, 26 November, 2011

 

By Vidur Malik

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Now that NFL offenses have come down to earth from the astronomical numbers they were putting up in the beginning of the season, your fantasy players have probably taken a hit.

 

Quarterbacks have had the most noticeable drop-off in production, but the league’s elite wide receivers have also seen their numbers drop. Two examples are Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson. Both players began the season with the potential to have record-setting years. Welker had over 700 yards after only five weeks, while Johnson had nine touchdown receptions in his first five games. Welker looked like he was on his way to setting the record for receiving yards in a season – which currently belongs to Jerry Rice, who had 1,848 yards in 1995 – and Johnson was on pace to shatter the record for touchdown receptions in a season, which Randy Moss set in 2007 with 23 touchdowns.

 

Both have dramatically cooled off. Johnson hasn’t cleared 100 yards receiving in his past three games and only has one touchdown in that span, and Welker has gone above 100 yards only once the past four games. Welker and Johnson are still ranked number one and two in yardage for receivers, respectively, and their numbers are still relatively good compared to their record-setting output earlier in the season, so there’s no reason to panic. You should, however, start looking for lesser-known wide outs for your team if you haven’t already.

 

There are a few receivers out there who might not be household names and should be available in your league. We recommended taking a look at Earl Bennett of the Chicago Bears a few weeks ago, and even though quarterback Jay Cutler is out with a broken thumb, Bennett is still the most reliable receiver on the team and should be a target for backup quarterback Caleb Hanie. Michael Crabtree of the 49ers had a seven-catch, 120-yard day against the Cardinals in week 11, and though he only had 54 yards against the Ravens on Thursday, he was still the Niners’ leading receiver with six catches.

 

Looking for tight ends could also help your team. Picking up players like Dennis Pitta of the Baltimore Ravens or Fred Davis of the Redskins and putting them in your flex spot could get you solid production. Both players aren’t going to give you big numbers, but they do get targeted by their quarterbacks and could get you some points on any given day.

 

Like any position, the wide receiver spots in fantasy teams are dominated by a few stars, but looking for up-and-comers who aren’t widely known could help you make a late-season surge. Players like Welker and Johnson will always be fantasy threats, but even they have off days. Make sure you’re prepared for them.