Predictions

Is Ravens Defense Folding?

Saturday, 18 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

There comes a time when even the best regress. Keeping a unit together is hard to do in the NFL because of a number of things. Free agency is the main culprit but also because teams have to rotate in new players to keep the same aggression and coaches principles together.

The first thing that pops into your head when you think of the Baltimore Ravens is their defense. Preseason allows room for error and to improve on necessary issues. Through the first two games of the preseason, Baltimore has to be very concerned about their defense.

Sure there have been games that any team can be susceptible in an area. If teams are able to find a glaring weakness in the Ravens it’s going to be their secondary. Atlanta and Detroit discovered that in limited action with their starters the first two games. Week one of the preseason, Matt Ryan threw for over 155 yards and a touchdown. Nearly 110 yards of those went to stud wideout Julio Jones who also caught the lone touchdown pass of Matt Ryan’s.

Just yesterday Matthew Stafford had a very similar performance. He threw for even more yardage at 184 yards with two touchdowns. Calvin Johnson had 111 of those yards with a touchdown. The fact that both Stafford who only played in four series, and Matt Ryan saw limited action is alarming. There is still two preseason games left, but truly after week three of the preseason that will be the main action left for the starters.

Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson are two of the top receivers in football, but corrections have to be made quickly in Baltimore.

Lardarius Webb is a flash and burn type of cornerback. He will make up for the plays he gets beat on typically. Where the Ravens need help is at right cornerback. Jimmy Smith last years high draft pick is currently behind Cary Smith at corner. Even more veteran safeties Bernard Pollard and Ed Reed will need to remain the backbone of this secondary.

Ed Reed made comments that he wasn’t even sure if he had football left in him anymore. Contemplation in the off-season for him went beyond the usual time frame. He needs to be 100 percent ready for this team and play like the Ed Reed we all have come to see on Sundays. He is the type of player that can get subpar talent to play at a higher level because they feed off of him.

Obviously that has not been the case the first two preseason games. With relentless pass rusher Terrel Suggs out for most of the season, this secondary is going to have to be a strong point. The defense may not be as strong as we are use to seeing, which is why we like Joe Flacco to breakout a bit this year.

Johnson Out, Who Will Step Up?

Monday, 13 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Miami’s HBO series of Hard Knocks just had some drama enter, and it’s not from the quarterback battle. Chad Johnson who was expected to revive and have a turn around season, has been released from the team. In similar fashion as in New England, Johnson did little to nothing as a Dolphin. In one preseason game he had one dropped ball.

This has more to do with an off the field issue than Johnson’s performance on the field, but the Dolphins have moved on to a new chapter. Now it leaves the opportunity open for other receivers to shine even more.

The fact that Miami could go through three quarterbacks this season is a big enough reason to stir clear from talent. Even with Chad Henne and Matt Moore last season, Miami’s offense was not too shabby. The offense should bolster even more with head coach Tony Sparano gone and new head coach, Joe Philbin in. Miami seemed to end the season well with great use of Reggie Bush and quick hit throws with Davone Bess and Brian Hartline.

Chad Johnson was the big name amongst the receivers, but was not necessarily a sure fire result producer. Davone Bess has put together a nice string of seasons for Miami, and now is their number one receiver with Brandon Marshall gone. It’ll be seen early if Bess can handle the role or if Miami will need to use spread formations to make up for lacking a big play receiver.

Legedu Naanee currently has the third receiver position now with Johnson gone. Naanee is who he is, and can fill the third spot decently. By no means is he a sleeper wide receiver. If anything with Miami’s current top slotted receivers only Davone Bess has value. Rank Miami with the Seattle’s and St. Louis’s of fantasy football as they’re lost in the Bermuda triangle for fantasy value at receiver.

Maybe if an injury occurs and Ryan Tannehill enters by midseason a receiver buried could advance to a different level. Often times receivers develop that do not get many reps with the first team develop chemistry better with the backup quarterbacks. There won’t be a Victor Cruz on Miami but it’s worth keeping an eye on once Tannehill is inserted.

If there is an area where Miami will shine it may be with pass catching running backs. From Reggie Bush all the way to Steve Slaton Miami has four backs that could all be effective. Slaton was once a 1,000 yard rusher in Houston and likely will be a special teamer for Miami. Daniel Thomas and rookie Lamar Miller figure to get carries in some form even with how Reggie Bush concluded last season. Splitting out one while having another behind the quarterback could be a tinker they play with on many formations.

Fantasy Quarterback Rankings 8/11/12

Sunday, 12 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

With a week in the books for preseason football, it’s time to get a snapshot of quarterback rankings. Stay fresh with notjustagame.com weekly to see if any quarterbacks rise to the level of waiver wire consideration, or if a player is slipping and may need to be traded.

1. Drew Brees- Brees will keep this offense rolling at its typical fast pace with his usual top of the chart numbers.

2. Tom Brady- With Josh McDaniels back in the fold the Patriots offense may be even better. No quarterback has the tight end advantage such as Brady. At age 35 though is a year coming soon, where Brady starts to decline for stretches of games?

3. Aaron Rodgers- Losing in the fashion of the NFC divisional round was a shocker to the NFL world. Rodgers does not have the strong backfield to relent the pressure off his arm, but that’s not a worry of his and only a bright side for fantasy owners.

4. Cam Newton- His all world numbers a year ago may be too high to bank on a repeat season. His numbers may come down but they’ll be strong enough to solidify a top ten fantasy ranking all season.

5. Tony Romo- He is the name that gets pinned for bulletin board and media criticism. Yet he fights through the negativity with strong seasons. This may finally be the year that Romo impresses not just with stats but wins on the field.

6. Matt Stafford- Stafford is another top tier quarterback that does not have the running back situation you would hope for. Unlike Rodgers though, Stafford has an injury history that downgrades him a few spots.

7. Peyton Manning- The physical decline in Manning is being overanalyzed. What’s not being discussed enough is Manning’s mental strong hold at the line of scrimmage. He commands his team in the huddle and even if he has to throw short passes like Chad Pennington, he will get it done.

8. Matt Ryan- Atlanta had some ugly losses last year that carried over into a wild card dismantling loss to the Giants. Ryan needs to shake off his rust on the road and he could catapult into a top five fantasy quarterback easily this season.

9. Mike Vick- The story of the Eagles just seems to be lingering on one season too many. The team that tanked last season and underperformed is mainly intact for 2012. Vick can still make the break a defenders ankles moves, but the Eagles just seem like they need a complete makeover. Vick’s fragility to complete a full season is a high issue for fantasy owners and does affect Vick’s draft ranking.

10. Robert Griffin III- The arm, legs, and smarts of Griffin is what Mike Shanahan has wanted to have at his disposal for years. There was a time that Shanahan ran smooth offenses and made even Brian Griese and Jake Plummer fantasy relevant. Griffin will have his fair share of games where he performs like a top fifteen to eighteen quarterbacks, and others where he falls in the top five. Tenth is a perfect spot for Griffin.

11. Philip Rivers

12. Ryan Fitzpatrick

13. Eli Manning

14. Joe Flacco

15. Ben Roethlisberger

16. Matt Schaub

17. Andy Dalton

18. Jay Cutler

19. Josh Freeman

20. Christian Ponder

21. Andrew Luck

22. Carson Palmer

23. Matt Cassel

24. Mark Sanchez

25. Alex Smith

26. Sam Bradford

27. Matt Flynn

28. Blaine Gabbert

29. Kevin Kolb

30. Matt Moore

31. Matt Hasselbeck

32. Brandon Weeden

33. Jake Locker

34. Tim Tebow

35. John Skelton

Putting on the Fitz

Friday, 10 August, 2012

 

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Fox Sports use to have a show called, Beyond the Glory. An interesting documentary that told the stories of how athletes rose to their acclaimed status. In the NFL, quarterbacks are usually known names expected to produce. Once in awhile though you will have the diamonds in the rough found. Kurt Warner is probably the last unknown to produce for a long duration of his career.

Is Ryan Fitzpatrick next?

By now everyone knows a little bit about Fitzpatrick’s past. An unheralded quarterback from Gilbert Highland High, that only had two scholarship offers. He went to Harvard became a 7th round pick, and instead of becoming a casualty like most late round quarterbacks, Fitzpatrick became the St. Louis Rams backup quarterback.

Injuries to Marc Bulger allowed Fitzpatrick to get on the field as a rookie. He shined in his first game action against Houston, leading a comeback win with three touchdown passes. His other starts that year displayed that Fitzpatrick was a rookie. It looked like a typical spotlight duty that came and went for Fitzpatrick.

When he became a free agent and landed on Cincinnati, it appeared he would be buried behind Carson Palmer. Again, the starter went down and Fitzpatrick got his opportunity to shine for a high amount of games. It was enough to attract teams interest for Fitzpatrick to be a solid backup quarterback.

Buffalo landed him, and after a couple seasons back and forth with Trent Edwards, Fitzpatrick finally surged past Edwards in 2010. Fitzpatrick has been more than a game manager for the Bills. He darts balls left and right, which has resulted in streaky stretches for Fitz. When his accuracy is on, Fitzpatrick has been a top ten fantasy quarterback. When he is off he makes owners dread the decision on drafting him.

He is sort of similar to Eli Manning in the fantasy realm. He has enough upside to want to start him, but his turnover issues make it problematic to insert him on a weekly basis. Overall though Fitzpatrick has thrown for solid yardage totals and around twenty four touchdowns each of the past two seasons.

When Fitzpatrick began to struggle last season after an impressive six games to start, it appeared that Fitzpatrick may have had the pressure of a new contract on his mind. Buffalo negotiated and sealed a big contract with Fitzpatrick, but instead of his play rising it started to get rougher. He did lose Fred Jackson, and had done as well as he could with a team of receivers unknown besides Stevie Johnson.

Yet it was not assurring enough and made Buffalo have to consider a backup that could become a starter. So in comes Vince Young. Will the Bills go back to the Doug Johnson/Doug Flute, Losman/Bledsoe and Fitzpatrick/Edwards quarterback brewing controversy? Come on it’s Buffalo, of course they will.

From a fantasy perspective based on last year, Fitzpatrick has to be considered a number two fantasy quarterback. Pressure is on him to produce, especially with the offseason additions the Bills have made. He is a streaky performer, so there is no doubt his value be higher certain weeks than others.

A quality that you will not find from most fantasy quarterbacks, as they usually perform fairly close to their quarterback ranking. Fitz on the other hand could have a top five or top ten performance any given week. It’s holding up for a full season that is worrisome.

Will the Real Mike Williams, Please Stand Up?

Wednesday, 8 August, 2012

Will the Real Mike Williams, Please Stand Up?

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com

Playing with Greg Paulus as his quarterback during his junior year at Syracuse, Mike Williams broke multiple records at Syracuse. Including consecutive games with a touchdown at nine. Paulus had just went from finishing his basketball career at Duke to using his graduate eligibility at Syracuse to have a shot at quarterback.

For Syracuse fans it still is one of the better seasons offensively in quite some time. 2009, also was costly for Williams as himself and other Syracuse teammates were disciplined by head coach Doug Marrone for violating team rules. Williams was suspended for the rest of Syracuse’s games in 2009, and the team never had the explosiveness it had prior.

Instead of coming back for his senior season, Williams decided to put his name in the NFL Draft. Expecting to get drafted in the first two rounds was out of the question, after his troubled career at Syracuse. Yet, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a gamble on him in the third round, going higher than most draft prognosticators had predicted.

During 2010, Williams and quarterback Josh Freeman were a dynamic duo. With Tampa Bay struggling to find a solid tight end, Williams became Freeman’s main red zone threat. Eleven touchdowns as a rookie is unheard of, and Williams entered the class of rising wide receivers along with Josh Freeman becoming an elite quarterback.

Year two together did not fare very well, as both had awful seasons. Freeman as the quarterback just did not look remotely similar to 2010. He was one of the few quarterbacks that seemed affected by the lockout. Either that or Tampa Bay’s receiving core just was not cutting it.

Josh Freeman dedicated his off-season to getting in shape and lost nearly twenty pounds. Tampa Bay also went out and signed receiver Vincent Jackson. Jackson who was embattled in a contract dispute with San Diego for a couple of seasons, finally was able to land elsewhere.

With a top target alongside him, can Williams come anywhere near his rookie levels? There are always variables to look at. Josh Freeman should have regained confidence, that hopefully can transfer to on the field. Excitement over rookie running back Doug Martin and power back LeGarrette Blount should provide a proper ground attack.

It boils down to Williams. Nothing is just going to come to him. His rookie season he had the hunger of someone that needed to prove something. He played as if he was an undrafted athlete. Fantasy owners should keep a radar eye on Williams during the important second and third preseason games.

If Tampa Bay’s offense looks fluid and Williams looks involved, than touchdowns can be counted on for Williams. Yardage has not been an area Williams has excelled in as he has caught 65 catches in both his seasons. If his touchdown consistency can rise though, Williams will be a high caliber number two fantasy wide receiver.

NFL: A Rookie That Matters

Tuesday, 7 August, 2012

By Zack Cimini

notjustagame23@gmail.com 

There once was a time that fantasy owners could rely on drafting a rookie running back and expect solid fantasy football numbers initially. The last few years though teams have steered away from drafting running backs high in the draft. The tandem back system and new approach has made the impact of rookie running backs lower on the fantasy map.

Trent Richardson has changed that for 2012. The rookie is expected to make huge waves in season one. Will Richardson have top tier value or just be a dependable number two running back?

In Cleveland running backs have enjoyed success even if it has been short lived. From Jamal Lewis, Jerome Harrison, and Peyton Hillis. Cleveland has done quite the shuffling at running back, which was one of the main reasons they decided to draft Richardson. To end their quest to find a back for a year to year basis.

Lets compare Peyton Hillis and Trent Richardson. Hillis is a bruiser type back more in the old mold of Mike Alstott. He went from being a short yardage back in 2010 to the feature back that relished the role. His versatility with the ball just was not there, as he is a straight north and south runner. Blame the madden curse, but Hillis needed a new environment after a publicized battle last season with the Browns.

In 2010 though Hillis was a fantasy gem, rushing for over 1100 yards and eleven touchdowns that year. That amount of touchdowns came without any scores the last five weeks of the season.

Richardson comes from the storied history of Alabama, and is a pontifical every down running back. Wearing down as the season stretches is a concern for rookies at any position. Ignore that factor with Richardson. He is built like a truck and barring injury will be fine for the entire season.

Cleveland’s quarterback situation will benefit Richardson as well. In the red zone when most teams would throw the football to their tight end or safety nets, the Browns will run more. Every down situations to control the game-clock will also mean more carries for Richardson. It is not wildly to anticipate Richardson to be a top ten to twelve fantasy football back in year one.

DeMarco Murray came out of nowhere last season as a rookie for the Dallas Cowboys because of injuries in the backfield. With Richardson, a high draft pick, young quarterback, and a backup that poses as a non-threat in Montario Hardesty, you can assume that Richardson is undervalued.

Fantasy owners do not like to draft based on no prior results. This benefits owners even more for Richardson, especially with the track record of top backs underperforming in year one the last few seasons.