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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Oakland

Here are week five’s rankings at running back. Keep an eye on how many carries Rashard Mendenhall receives this week from Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and team doctors have cleared his return and need him desperately as their running game has lacked effeciency. He is not included in this week’s top forty, but may make his way as a fantasy impactful player within the next two to four games.

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Arian Foster
3. Ray Rice
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Frank Gore
8. Willis McGahee
9. Trent Richardson
10. Jamaal Charles
11. Ryan Matthews
12. MJD
13. Michael Turner
14. Alfred Morris
15. Darren Sproles
16. Reggie Bush
17. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
18. Stevan Ridley
19. Cedric Benson
20. Chris Johnson
21. Ryan Williams
22. Fred Jackson
23. DeAngelo Williams
24. CJ Spiller
25. Steven Jackson
26. Daniel Thomas
27. Michael Bush
28. Donald Brown
29. Shonn Greene
30. Andre Brown
31. Isaac Redman
32. Jonathan Stewart
33. Jackie Battle
34. Jacquizz Rodgers
35. Ben Tate
36. Pierre Thomas
37. Ronnie Hillman
38. Kendall Hunter
39. Brandon Bolden
40. Lamar Miller

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Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland

The first month of the season flew by. October is a month where we will find out which teams are the real deal, and others that were over hyped. From a quarterback standpoint there are many stars that need to rectify some woeful performances to get their fantasy GM’s back in the running. Barring injury those studs drafted in round one will get their teams back in the thick of things to attempt to sneak into the fantasy playoffs. What are their true separations in terms of fantasy with the starts of Joe Flacco, RG3, and others?

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Mike Vick
3. Tom Brady
4. Matt Ryan
5. Joe Flacco
6. Drew Brees
7. RG3
8. Philip Rivers
9. Cam Newton
10. Alex Smith
11. Peyton Manning
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Schaub
14. Eli Manning
15. Christian Ponder
16. Andy Dalton
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Kevin Kolb
19. Russell Wilson
20. Sam Bradford
21. Andrew Luck
22. Brandon Weeden
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick
24. Blaine Gabbert
25. Ryan Tannehill
26. Matt Hasselbeck
27. Matt Cassel
28. Mark Sanchez

The Cowboys and Bears are both expected to be in the hunt for the playoffs come week seventeen. This game will end up being a pivotal game come December for playoff implications. Dallas has the lines maker classic three point home edge, and a 41.5 point over/under is set for the point total.

Tony Romo and Jay Cutler have the good and the bad mixture in the eyes of the NFL fan and media. Romo has been an elite quarterback from a statistical standpoint but just can’t pull off the big games when needed. Cutler has shown to get flustered when things are going bad, and a poor play tends to lead to more bad decisions from Cutler.

If he can have Matt Forte back tonight that should help alleviate forced throws, as Cutler can check down as he is accustomed to. Many are expecting this to be a low scoring game, but I expect some big plays to happen.

DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte are home run threats in the open field and will cause both defenses to have to apply more attention to a running back out of the backfield. That will open up holes for one on one matchups occasionally for either Brandon Marshall or Dez Bryant, and the tight ends in Jason Witten and Kellen Davis.

We all know that Jay Cutler has been prone to sacks. A lot of the blame in the Green Bay contest was on the Bears offensive line and not Cutler. If he can keep his head in the game, the Bears should be able to pull out this win on the road. J’Marcus Webb has had enough attention on him the last few years. Cutler’s shoving of him on Thursday night may be what he needed to get himself in gear on a game to game basis.

Can J’Marcus Webb get embarrassed on national television once again as he has vs the Giants on Sunday Night football a few years ago, and against the Packers Thursday two weeks ago? I think he’ll actually be up for the challenge tonight.
Two plays tonight: Bears +3 and the over first half of 21

Twitter Questions @Cimini

One thing the NFL has done a good job on with their televised games is matchups. At least early on in the season they look like great games. Once the true teams start separating from the mediocre than will see how the games shape up around mid season and beyond. Tonight’s game offers a true test for the Atlanta Falcons to see if they are ready to rise to the NFL’s elite status.

The over/under in this game is set at 52 while the Falcons have the typical home minus three line. It’s only been one game but Matt Ryan came out as if he is ready to redeem himself all in one game, after his horrible playoff exit performance against the Giants. While the passing game was prolific against the Kansas City Chiefs, questions are high with their ground game and Michael Turner. Turner had only 30 yards rushing on ten carries.

If he has the same type of ineffectiveness, the Broncos may be able to drop more in pass coverage and get a deflection on a tipped ball that leads to a big turnover.

Atlanta is one of those teams that just performs at a higher level at home. There comes a point in time when a receiver has that matchup they covet. Both Roddy White and Julio Jones know they form the best duo on the NFL at receiver. The way the Falcons move them around to pose mismatches, they’ll both likely get some time with Champ Bailey trying to blanket them.

The key word there is try. The old veteran is going to have his hands full like the rest of the NFL does, but I think he gives up two touchdowns in this game.

It’ll be interesting to see how Manning responds if the Broncos get down by more than ten points. Can he remain calm? In his last few years with Indianapolis he became forceful with the football which led to a higher than normal rate of interceptions.

The home field will prove to be too tough. Take Atlanta and the over in this high scoring affair.

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Don’t get over anxious for your fantasy starters submissions. There is always that hole of a fill in spot that you’re undecided about. It comes down to the best matchups, and flex or lower tiered starters that you can get the highest point value out of. Eye the right guy. Here are some names that likely won’t dot anyones starting lineups. Be the contrarian fantasy owner and take a risk with one of your last starting fill in spots.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel
Kansas City hung in with Atlanta for two quarters before the offense sputtered and couldn’t keep pace. Kansas City has talent on offense now and Cassel is finally starting to settle in as the Chiefs quarterback. Buffalo gave up a ton of yardage against a Jets team that struggled mightily in preseason action. That trend is not goin to end this week.

Christian Ponder
The Vikings second year man does not get the notoriety that Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have. Ponder replaced McNabb a year ago and showed a knack for evading pressure and holding steady in the pocket. Both of those traits had been impossible for McNabb to do on aging legs. While the focus of this matchup is going to be shined on Andrew Luck, Ponder will be the one that steals the spotlight and outshines Luck.

Kevin Kolb
Kolb is one of those guys that can perform well when the pressure is off him. As a backup in Philadelphia he played terrific, well enough that Andy Reid almost named him starter officially over Donovan McNabb. With Skelton out for a limited time frame Kolb is the starter for at least a game. The pressures off and Kolb has nothing to lose. He can regain the Cardinals coaching staffs confidence in this one.

Josh Freeman
Freeman is many prognosticators favorites to have a bounce back year and be relevant from a fantasy perspective. Week one was a defensive battle where Freeman handled the lead and played within the stages of the game. Things will be different this week against a Giants team that is going to put up points. Freeman’s arm will be on display, and that he will hook up with Vincent Jackson quite often against a banged up Giants secondary.

Running Backs

Curtis Brinkley
This is a head scratcher at first glance from many people, as Brinkley is not known by anyone. This of course will be up to the injury update of Ryan Matthews. If Matthews does not go, than Brinkley is my breakout canidate of the week. The undrafted player out of Syracuse will get some looks, probably a higher amount than week one. Ronnie Brown just does not have anything left. Brinkley will get ten plus fantasy points this weekend.

Kendall Hunter
Hunter had an impressive nine rushes week one. The 49ers want to secure their health throughout this season and into the post season. In order to do that Hunter’s involvement is only going to rise. Veteran running backs such as Gore face all types of minor injuries as the season goes on. Hunter is going to rise up running back weeks every week. In a game where there will likely be points put up by both teams, you have to figure Hunter can get in on the action. Expect a solid eight to ten fantasy points from Hunter. Solid numbers in deep leagues if you’re looking at a flex option.

DeAngelo Williams
Carolina abandoned the rushing attack early after no success against Tampa Bay. Cam Newton sometimes is more of a threat on a weekly basis out of the backfield than any one on the Carolina roster. Week one Newton and the offense struggled for obvious reasons. The balance of playcalls was horrible. They’ll go back to the basics and get the running game its proper amount of play call selections.

Jonathan Dwyer
Pittsburgh is unsettled on who to give their carries too. It will be a split carry load until one of the backs stands out. Dwyer seems like the back that can do the most with the football over Isaac Redman. All it takes is that one game for an unsure backfield to be overtaken. In a prime time game against the Jets the Steelers will look to run, run, and run the football more to control the clock. They did a very good job of controlling the clock against the Denver Broncos, but were out done by a Peyton Manning with a chip on his shoulder.

Wide Receivers

Kevin Ogletree
This one is really going to get all the Ogletree waiver wire owners drooling and hyping up his trade bait. Seattle’s defense is typically good, but an area they struggled against the Cardinals was covering the third receiver. Cardinals receiver Andre Roberts had several key catches including the game winning touchdown. Tony Romo is a considerable upgrade over Skelton or Kolb. When Romo gets a connection developed it continues. Miles Austin came out of nowhere a few years back and so did Laurent Robinson last year.

Jared Cook
San Diego’s secondary was either impressive or Carson Palmer has lost it completely. After minimal starts as a rookie Tennessee will keep things simple for Jake Locker. A young quarterbacks best friend is always at tight end. Cook has the skillset to have a strong year, and in this game against San Diego don’t be shocked to see him have more fantasy points than Antonio Gates.

Brandon LaFell
Teams are geared up to do everything they can to force Cam Newton into discomfort. It’s going to be hard to do on a weekly basis, but division rivals saw Newton twice last year. Tampa Bay made sure the third time was difficult last week. New Orleans gets their third shot as well. You’d expect them to be ready to shutdown Steve Smith better than any other team, as Smith had two of his seven total touchdowns on the Saints a year ago. LaFell is a breakout game away from being considered a top thirty to thirty five fantasy receiver.

Sidney Rice
By no means will Seattle be in this game vs the Cowboys. In fact I expect it to be the ugliest game of the weekend. Ugly blowouts do not eliminate fantasy value from a team, especially at wide receiver. Rice seems to finally be healthy and displayed impressive routes week one against the Cardinals. As the game gets uglier look for Rice to rack up the most garbage fantasy points of the weekend.

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Thursday games in the NFL and a college game on ESPN every week is going to make for an inspiring part of the week for those trying to make it to the weekend. These prime matchups in the NFL are just as important to any fantasy roster as the games are on Sunday and Monday.

Taking your time to project your fantasy starters and best options for points needs to start sooner now. The temporary end of the season weeks where most of the Thursday games on were filled with poor teams and non fantasy impact players is gone. Just how you can be beat at the tail end of the week with Monday Night Football’s matchup, the same results can happen on Thursdays.

Tony Romo, Kevin Ogletree, and DeMarco Murray showcased that just a week ago. The matchup with the Bears and Packers should offer more of the same.

For a Packers team that has been known as a lethal offensive machine over the last four years, Chicago has been one of the few teams to consistently give Rodgers fits. Last year the Bears were owned in both games, but in years 2009 and 2010 the defense held their own against the high powered Packers offense. In 2010, offensive scoring by the Packers in the regular season was a game with 17 points and another with ten. When meeting again in the NFC Championship, the Packers scored 21 and ended up winning the Super Bowl.

With a shortened week and the way both teams played week one, you’d have to expect the defenses to suffer more than the offenses. Chicago’s Brian Urlacher is gutting it out to play and likely will. The sore spot in the Bears defense remains in the secondary. Andrew Luck made some mistakes week one but he flung the football around nicely. Rodgers will have no problem finding his receivers and moving the football up and down the field on the Bears.

Greg Jennings is looking like a game time decision with a groin injury. Chances are he will likely sit, and the team will give him basically a bye weeks length to heal. The Packers are loaded and deep at receiver so that’s the best thing for them to do. For Jennings owners it’s not worth the risk inserting him in the lineup.

That boosts up players such as James Jones and Randall Cobb. With the Packers rushing woes likely not to improve overnight, it’s going to be a big day for the passing game. I do expect Cedric Benson to get more than nine carries, and likely closer to twenty as the Packers want to try to mix it up better and wear down the Bears defense. With Rodgers scrambling ability, don’t be surprised to see a patented bootleg bomb to Jordey Nelson or James Jones.

If you are a Cedric Benson owner and want the comfort ability of getting a range of ten to fourteen fantasy points he is worth the start. He has always been a hard runner and will get the opportunities to make up for his lackluster week one against a stifling 49ers defense. Remember Benson was an ex-Bear. He has only faced off against his former team once. In that performance he ran for a career high 189 yards in 2009. Motivation is always there for a player going against recognizable ex teammates and organization that parted ways with him.

Start all the key Packers even Benson, and emerging specialist Randall Cobb.

With the Chicago Bears an offensive outpour looked great week one. Jay Cutler has more comfort ability than any quarterback in the NFL. Brandon Marshall was his top wide out with Denver, and he still has Earl Bennett on key downs that he hits over and over again. Will this be a mirage? Cutler has had many a performances where he shines and then follows them up with head scratchers.

Prime time games have been his nemesis, and this has repeat Cutler written all over it. A week of shining through the air should not be a recipe weekly for the Bears. They have the running backs to beat teams up through the ground every week. Teams can lose their identity after a game like the Bears just had. In a young season I expect that to happen vs. the Packers. Especially with the Packers hungry to not dig themselves in an 0-2 hole.

It looks like a favorably matchup for a fantasy quarterback, but I advise to sit Cutler. He may throw for 270 yards and a few touchdowns, but the interceptions will be two or more. Most fantasy owners did not draft Cutler anyways as their starter, so it should not be a hard pressed decision for you.

Other fantasy worthy players to sit would include Mike Bush and Alshon Jeffrey. Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte are both in a class of their own in their respective positions, in the top five for fantasy purposes.

Analyzing the spread of 51.5 for the over and under. One would cling on the over automatically after the Bears week one and expected fire of Green Bay. I look for the Packers to enforce the ground game and milk the clock on drives. A contrarian view of predictability. The Packers know they can score quickly if needed but running up and down the field is not a successful game plan.

Running the clock and putting the pressure on the Bears to respond is. The longer Cutler analyzes and sits on the sideline the more anxious he will get. He is a quarterback that gets anxious to make the big plays and lets a handful of balls leave his hand that never should have. Take the Packers with the six point spread and the under of 51.5