Second Year NFL Player’s With High Return Value

A rookie in the NFL is sometimes just shown the ropes. They may have the talent but the coaching staff believes too much of a burden on the rookie could hurt the team and progression of a player in his rookie season. It may be hard to believe but not all coaches want instant success by crazy statistics. Just helping the team out with a third down catch and not dropping the football might be what he is looking for. Impactful small plays such as blocking down field, and running the proper routes is something the coaches can see that growth is being made. Year two more opportunities present themselves and depending on the length of that player’s first contract, market value is going to want to be assessed. Grooming has been done and those player’s will now get a chance to flourish even more. I’ve profiled some players that are in their second season that should be of fantasy significance from statistics they put up last season. Qualifying factors can just be a better supporting cast, an expanded role, or just signs that they’re ready for a boost from your bench to potential fantasy starter. Quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill Miami is looking for Tannehill to scale forward a bit and show an added dimension. He showed flashes last season that he is capable of doing it. Were those flashes a result of timely called plays by the offensive coordinator, or Tannehill’s innate ability to read defenses? Most of the rookies shined last year and Tannehill was not one that disappointed. Miami did not add wide receiver weapons in Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson to not test Tannehill’s arm. Brady is aging in New England, and Tannehill may be the quarterback to take over the division of the AFC East. Running Backs Vick Ballard The Colts just recently traded away Delone Carter, and many are not sure what the health of Ahmad Bradshaw will be. For now Ballard will be given the chance to be the Colts full time back. I think he will garner a double digit carry type of output in the Colts offense. Indianapolis does not shy away from trying to score, and needs to with their defense being sporadic. If Ballard can showcase that he is the number one back, the touchdowns he will get will make him a solid RB3. He’ll have to fight off Donald Brown and Bradshaw though. Bryce Brown Brown put on a nice multiple week span for owners that were a little nervous without LeSean McCoy. As of now that’s all Brown’s value is. He is a high insurance handcuff for a first round draft pick in McCoy. Though in Chip Kelly’s high octane offense he may dot the fantasy top twenty five running backs a handful of times even as Philadelphia’s second running back. Ronnie Hillman Denver has a bit of a mess at running back, and will likely have one of those dreaded back fields from a fantasy perspective. Hillman is the guy the Broncos want to have the role, but he did not prove a year ago that he can handle full time duties. Montee Ball was brought in and will be the back the Broncos go to in short yardage situations. Hillman though might have a CJ Spiller type of value. Spiller also had some short comings early with Buffalo before supplanting Fred Jackson. Keep an eye on Hillman’s yards per carry, as he does possess great open field speed. Lamar Miller Miami decided to let Reggie Bush walk away and test out Miller’s worth. They’re all in on Miller and the rest of the NFL may soon figure that out as well. Durability may be a question with Miller. Look for Miami to protect Miller by off setting his carries with Daniel Thomas who has been a disappointment thus far. Miller is one of the few backs in the NFL that will have a solid ratio of carries higher than his backup running back. Daryl Richardson If backfields tell the story over time, than St. Louis management likely made the right move by letting Steven Jackson sign with the Falcons. Over the last ten years the Rams have had Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson as their running backs. Truth be told it was amazing how long Jackson lasted their with the high amount of carries and the way he carries the football. It’s Richardson’s backfield now and fantasy owners have to be impressed with the 4.8 yards per carry he had a year ago. David Wilson Crushing news to the Giants fans and organization is that of Andre Brown being out for the season with a broken leg. Wilson must now be a factor down back instead of just a home run threat. The Giants will find someone either on their roster or on waivers to fill the cushion carries role. Wilson has to be thrilled about his current opportunity as well as fantasy owners. While the rise of impact may be great on Wilson early, keep on eye and see how he handles the role in November and December when he surpasses 200/220 carries. Wide Receivers Justin Blackmon Herman Edwards preaches on air at ESPN for athletes to stay out of trouble. I’m sure Justin Blackmon was at the rookie symposium when he was warned of the lures outside of the football field, and how to act. The symposium didn’t matter as Blackmon had a DUI issue and will miss four games to start the season. No one can tell what is going on in a player’s head. His repeat issues have to be a cause for concern, but if he is able to sidestep those issues he showed last year that he can be a force. Ryan Broyles Detroit has never shied away from testing the arm of Matthew Stafford and won’t in 2013 either. Broyles will fill the slot receiver role and should get well over 60 catches in the Lions potent attack. If he can steal a few of Calvin Johnson’s touchdowns his value goes up even more. Chris Givens Many are down on St. Louis as they’re expecting their pattern of wins/losses to revert back to a major loss season in 2013. They’ve been back and forth on the pattern since the 2009 season. They’re an infused team with youth so the fine line of winning or losing will be a small margin. Givens impressed last season and is ahead of second round draft pick Brian Quick in terms of overall value. Reuben Randle Randle did a fine job as a rookie when injuries presented themselves. The Giants are going to continue to air out the football, and as long as you’re a top three wide receiver in the Giants offense you’re fantasy worthy. Randle is that and we know Hakeem Nicks injury-history. Victor Cruz’s foot issue in preseason that is carrying into the regular season boosts Randle’s value as well. Michael Floyd Throughout the first part of the 2012 season it looked like Floyd was lost, and losing ground quickly in his first year with the Cardinals. He shook off that notion and finished the season strong with a stable of quarterbacks that were down right putrid. Carson Palmer will adjust all of the Cardinals receivers statistics in an upward direction in 2013.

Fantasy football is all about having an inside edge, and finding a sneaky sleeper or a breakout player that no one else in your league can identify. Of course, this is easier said than done. With every site online, from your fantasy league host site to Rotowire offering sleeper candidates and late round pickup ideas, it’s hard to find something that your friends and opponents haven’t already picked up on. But, in the spirit of trying, here’s a look at 10 RB sleeper candidates outside of the obvious picks of Giovanni Bernard and Eddie Lacy.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
I know, I know… MJD can’t possibly be called a “sleeper.” But look me in the eye and tell me you were considering him 1st round. The bottom line is, this guy can play, and he’s healthy, and he’s in a contract year. Betfair lists him in the top 10 best odds to lead the league in rushing, a feat he’s accomplished before. MJD is an RB1.

2. Daryl Richardson
Lost in the Steven Jackson fantasy hype is the fact that his St. Louis replacement, Richardson, is primed for a big year. He’s not an RB1, but don’t overlook him.

3. Lamar Miller
Miller is being largely overlooked, but in replacing Reggie Bush as Miami’s main back, he’s in line for a significant production bump.

4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Uh, everybody? Green-Ellis is still the starter in Cincy. Gio Bernard is deserving of the hype, but don’t overlook a starting RB option!

5. Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley is perhaps a bit over-hyped this year, following his 2012 breakout. The Pats will likely lean on Vereen at times as well. Plus, he doesn’t have Danny Woodhead around to take touches from him anymore.

6. DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart is hurt, and D-Willy will finally get to be an RB by himself this season. Sure, Mike Tolbert will vulture some TDs, and Cam Newton is the Panthers’ best runner – but look for better fantasy numbers from Williams.

7. Jonathan Dwyer
The Steelers are remarkably unsolved in the backfield, but Dwyer figures to have a strong shot at ending up as “the guy.”

8. Vick Ballard
Keep an eye on Ballard as a bench option. He’ll be backing up Ahmad Bradshaw in Indy, but Bradshaw can be fragile, and Ballard is capable of being a #1 back.

9. Danny Woodhead
Looking for a fresh start in San Diego, Woodhead will likely get a chance to shine backing up the generally disappointing Ryan Matthews.

10. LaMichael James
If Frank Gore stumbles in San Francisco, LaMichael James has the pedigree to get a shot at stealing the RB1 job. It’s no guarantee, but he’s a great draft-and-stash candidate.

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Preseason can be one of the harsh gray areas for fantasy football participants to over predict. Just because someone has a stellar preseason does not mean it will carry over into the regular season. Actual sleepers tend to come during the season and are because of injury. With Rob Gronkowski’s rehabilitation dragging into the season, many are quick to wrap their sights and take Sudfeld as a sleeper now.

Before you pull that trigger on Sudfeld lets calm the storm before you get tossed into it. It’s evident that Sudfeld would step into a significant role with New England. As Tom Brady has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league at diagnosing mismatches with his tight ends. The skill set that Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had over Sudfeld is obvious. They were more athletic and possessed the speed to whirl by their opposing defenders. Seam routes were fantasy havens for owners of Gronk and Hernandez especially when it came down to red zone opportunities.

Defensively teams had to pick their poison on who was at-risk in one on one coverage especially when both Gronkowski and Hernandez were on the field at the same time. Their ascent to the rise of tight ends in the NFL was largely due to their complementary abilities of each other, and the fact that they were deemed elite tight ends coming out of college.

Before Brady had the duo of Hernandez and Gronk, Brady never had even close to the success statistically over the first nine years of his career. In the pre-Gronk and pre-Hernandez era Brady had unreliable fantasy tight end targets. Remember the names of Kyle Brady, Ben Watson, and Christian Fauria? I’d guess maybe ten percent of you had Ben Watson as your fantasy tight end during those bottom tier years of tight end significancy out of New England.
Watson’s top year receiving yards wise was 643 yards and he also topped out another year with six touchdowns. Christian Fauria and Kyle Brady were did not even touch the blips of waiver wire consideration.

My point with New England is they’ll likely figure out a shuffle of guys not just Sudfeld to make due for however long Gronkowski is out. The Patriots will not let it be known just yet what the time table for Gronkowski return is. More than likely the team will keep him out as long as possible to ensure proper prevention is met this time, as he has been unstable with injuries over the past year.

Sudfeld sure had an great performance in the first game of the preseason. Teams have no true game plans going in and sure as heck did not have Sudfeld in mind for assignment attention. Regular season will be a different story. If he is going to see twenty plus plays on the field, the opposing defenses will be ready for him. He is a big target at 6’7 with soft hands but does not possess the physical or speed attributes that New England had with Gronk and Hernandez.

Sudfeld’s three touchdowns in the preseason are bound to cause some fantasy football owners to reach out for Sudfeld as a *sleeper*. Others can buy low on Sudfeld as I do believe his three touchdowns in two weeks of the preseason are an aberration. Come the regular season I’ll be shocked if he reaches that touchdown total for the entire season.

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Points, points, and more points are how fantasy leagues are going nowadays. I, myself still enjoy the more standard type of point system leagues. As tweaks and more innovative ways to gain points accumulates you can sometimes have individuals in leagues side one way versus other league participants. It’s going to happen and many could argue that additional points are futile to capturing a team’s true value.

To assuage owners there are certain point structures that just never go away. The category of turnovers is often overlooked when owners draft, but not on game day Sunday’s. Monster runs after high profile fantasy quarterbacks took fantasy drafts by storm last year. Only to see quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford plummet from their draft day value with inconsistency throughout the season. Making matters worse was the fact that both quarterbacks saw a rise in their turnovers. Stafford threw nearly as many touchdowns (20) as he did in interceptions (17) last season. The year prior he had an onslaught season with 41 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions.

Stafford owners that drafted him were hit with the double whammy of ineffectiveness last season. The big decline hit Newton as noted above dramatically as well. His was in a different area of expected continued production. Defenses adjusted to his open field running ability and clamped down on his number one skill-set. His drop from fourteen rushing touchdowns to just eight was a decrease of thirty six fantasy points. Not to mention that his consistent production from 2011 was not dependable, as he had some rough weeks the first eight to ten games of the season.

Fantasy owners need to dig deeper and realize that just because teams are throwing more does not mean your fantasy quarterback is going to ride the gravy train of double digit fantasy points every week. Predicting which quarterbacks are going to decline from a statistical stand point is almost impossible. I don’t care how many websites have a lineup helper or not. Turnovers are an area I would focus on.

Many of us have been in leagues where the point differential for any given week win/lose is by the slimmest of points. Quarterbacks can be the biggest detriment if they’re having a rough week by compounding your possible fantasy points with turnovers. Last year twenty six different quarterbacks threw ten or more interceptions, and fifteen had four or more fumbles. That’s a substantial amount of negative points from your fantasy quarterback on a season.

Rest assured without proper protection from your quarterback in the turnover department you will lose one to two games a season because of it.

Football is at a time where the guessing game on which teams are going to air out the football is over. The majority of teams have game plans tailored on winning their games through the air. In fantasy football you have diagnose which teams are on bad teams that will derail their performance as the season goes on with turnovers. Unlike receivers and running backs that accumulate garbage points playing from behind, quarterbacks tend to see a rise in their turnovers from more forced throws.

Here are quarterbacks I’d monitor with watchful eyes for a high amount of turnovers in 2013.

1. Matt Stafford
2. Russ Wilson
3. Philip Rivers
4. Jay Cutler
5. Eli Manning
6. Cam Newton
7. Tony Romo
8. Carson Palmer
9. Mike Vick
10. Colin Kaepernick

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The media has criticized, praised, and lambasted Tim Tebow continuously. His time as an NFL starting quarterback has come and gone, yet the media will strangle their hold on his publicity until he is completely off an NFL roster. Truth be told, quarterbacks come and go by way of their play on the field daily, weekly, and yearly. You’re not guaranteed to be a starter no matter what round you’re picked in or the size of your contract.

Unfortunately over in Tennessee they’ve dragged on with Jake Locker a bit too long. Every characteristic that has been attributed to Tim Tebow can be categorized the same for Locker. In college he was boasted as a supreme athlete that could do-it-all and he did. The four year starter was predicted to be an easy lock as a top five or even the number one pick.

He did not declare as a junior, and therefore, so his stock overall decline as a senior. Locker was still expected to be a first round pick but no one believed he be a top five pick, in fact most had him as a mid to late first round pick. Draft day came and the Titans believed Locker was their guy to not pass on with the eighth selection.

Legs and an ability to produce on the run and broken down plays have cast a few years to many as starting quarterbacks in the league. Vince Young was able to do it successfully to as a Titan before Locker. Locker’s inefficiencies with his arm were there in college, and have haunted him in his young career thus far. In college Locker’s completion percentage was just around 54 percent. Guess what it has been in sixteen games in the NFL? ….55 percent

Locker is not dropping back and throwing it 40 to 50 times a game either. The only quarterbacks behind Locker in completion percentage a year ago were Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Andrew Luck, and Chad Henne. All but Luck, who was a rookie, will likely be demoted after this season (Henne is a backup). Stats do not lie and the Titans will be faced with a tough decision soon on the amount of money they’ve invested in Locker.

He can probably be a solid backup or situational quarterback, but too succeed in the NFL you need to have a consistent arm. Those extra five to eight completions can be all the difference in winning a game.

I believe the Titans made a mistake by letting Matt Hasselbeck sign as a free agent with the Indianapolis Colts, as they’ll definitely need a different signal caller under center when Locker struggles. Hey Titans fans, does the name Ryan Fitzpatrick ring a bell?

Fitzpatrick is a quarterback that just finds himself in opportune situations time and time again, even though his skillset is not that of a starter. He has been on the Rams, Bengals, and Bills. With every team he was brought in as a backup and ended up starting games either due to injuries or poor quarterback play. There is no doubt he will start games for the Titans, his fourth team that he will do so. Frankly, I believe he gives the Titans a better chance to win on the field. The burden of a huge contract that the Bills mistakenly gave him is off his shoulders now.

By mid-October expect Fitzpatrick on the field and to actually play decent as he has notoriously done when called off the bench.

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The spread offense is not just for the wildcat or to expose a simple mismatch at the tight end position or with a team’s number one wide receiver. Third receivers or slot receivers use to make their bread and butter primarily on third and longs. That has all changed, and teams are in three wide receiver formations more now than ever. All the continued progress in quarterback’s stats climbing has to be divied out amongst his receivers.

A top caliber fantasy quarterback and even mediocre is going to eclipse the 4000 yard mark with ease. Factor in a top tight end that’ll snag 800-1000 of those yards and an elite wide receiver who will garner between 1000-1400 yards. That leaves a good 40-45 percent of yards left for the rest of the receiving core to gobble up.

St. Louis and Az Hakim were the ones that set the tone in the 2000’s on turning up the offense and having the capability of having three consistent fantasy studs (Bruce, Holt, Hakim) on any given week. Being a notch below as a third receiver on a solid passing team can mean all the world. You have seen third receivers outdo certain teams number ones and twos.

Who are this year’s top Az Hakim potential studs?

Sleepers:
Robert Woods- Buffalo, Domenik Hixon-Carolina, Davone Bess-Cleveland, Terrence Williams- Dallas, Josh Boyce-New England, Kenny Stills- New Orleans, Andrew Hawkins- Cincinnati

1. Eric Decker-
It’s hard to classify Decker as the third wide receiver option, but someone has to be amongst Thomas and Welker. Decker can play any number of roles at wide receiver as he did in college at Minnesota and in his first few seasons with Denver.

2. TY Hilton-
Hilton may be the Colts third wide receiver listed on the depth charts but he is soon to be Andrew Luck’s favorite target. Reggie Wayne keeps staving off age but his years are dwindling down. Hilton just has that big play explosiveness that will keep him on the field for a high amount of plays.

3. James Jones-
Last year was sort of a reappearance for Jones in terms of value. He had dipped quite a bit but was able to get back in the fold with injuries at the receiver position. With Jennings gone to Minnesota and Jordy Nelson recuperating from minor surgery, expect Jones to continue to splatter the fantasy radar.
4. Reuben Randle-

I do not expect Hakeem Nicks to be in and out of the Giants lineup anywhere near to the amount of games that plagued him last year. Randle stood out in action when necessary, but Cruz and Nicks are going to get a high share of Eli Manning’s percentages.

5. Keenan Allen-
I’m one of the few expecting Philip Rivers to bounce back from an awful past couple of seasons. He seems to always find talent amongst his rather non-standout talents at receiver. Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown are still around, but I expect Allen to jump into the mix sooner than later.
6. Andre Roberts-

Roberts flourished with quarterbacks such as Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, mainly because they saw him as their safety net. Fitzgerald is going to continue to draw the disguised coverages to prevent big plays, so that will keep Roberts freed up in one on one coverage. Michael Floyd is about a year away from making a difference. I expect Roberts to outdo him statistically for a second consecutive year.

7. Ryan Broyles-

Broyles steps into to the spot occupied by Titus Young just a year ago. Young for all his issues had some quality production as the Lions third wide receiver. The Lions love throwing the three wide receiver set at defenses, and Broyles is the perfect speed-slot option for this offense.