A Look Ahead: Fourth Quarter Killers For Week Two

Follow@cimini Having players on bad teams has an advantage in one quarter. The fourth. Roster depth is usually on the field defensively, if a team is up significantly. That gives the team losing plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. There have been quite a few athletes that have made a living doing gaining the majority of their stats in the fourth quarter. Brandon Myers of Oakland last season was one who relished in this role. You should know going into each week who are the potential fourth quarter killers. It gives you options for the tough starting positions on your team, and also gives you a vantage point of a few players your opponent may have. Best Matchups Oakland vs Jacksonville- The Jags were rocked at home, and now will have to go to Chad Henne like they did last year, as Blaine Gabbert has been declared out with injury. Raiders fans will surely be hyped up after watching Terrelle Pryor show better than advertised presence for the Raiders offense. Oakland fans have a sharp memory and do not forget. Just last year Jacksonville traveled to Oakland in a game that went to overtime. Chad Henne stepped in that game and blew a lead that Jacksonville had. Oakland’s defense looked fantastic against the Colts last week. Pressure was constantly on Andrew Luck, and they really settled down after two opening drives for scores by the Colts. They’ll have to be better on third down which is where Indianapolis did most of their damage. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Jacksonville: Marcedes Lewis, Cecil Shorts, MJD. Dallas vs Kansas City- Dallas somehow made a game in which they controlled the turnover margin more interesting that it should be. There were holes all over the defense, and pressure is still squarely on Tony Romo’s shoulders due to a ground game that looks like it’ll be mediocre again. Kansas City is one of the toughest places to play. Andy Reid came to a Chiefs team with an already great defense, and now gets to tinker with the offense. Many will jump on the Cowboys bandwagon after week one’s big victory. But I believe out of all week one teams, the Chiefs look like they are the most prepared on both sides of the football. Andy Reid dialed back the offense once the Chiefs had a three touchdown lead in the first half. Expect the Chiefs to grab a big lead and Tony Romo to have his usual distraught face late in the game. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Dallas: Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten Carolina vs Buffalo- If New England did not have the play calling capabilities that they have and Tom Brady, Buffalo would have grabbed a high caliber win week one. Buffalo is always a tricky place for quarterbacks to play. The home crowd and variable winds are something to keep on eye on. Buffalo’s defense is one of the better teams at creating turnovers, and will be able to capitalize on a highly vulnerable Cam Newton. If the Panthers have an early miscue or turnover watch out. Offensively I think the Bills have enough playmakers at receiver and with skill backs Spiller/Jackson to put up better numbers than the Seahawks did a week ago. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Carolina: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Steve Smith, and Ted Ginn Jr. Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati For all the butt whippings the Steelers laid on the Bengals throughout the years, this could be a reversal Monday night. Pittsburgh’s had glaring issues from last season, this preseason, and now week one’s loss to the Titans. Cincinnati has more balance in every facet of the game than Pittsburgh does. Big Ben use to be able to make up for the Steelers deficiencies with his scrambling and pocket presence, but even that isn’t there for the Steelers right now. He just does not have enough time to make sound decisions. Players to be fourth quarter killers for Pittsburgh: Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and David Johnson

Backup Quarterback Fantasy Mistake

Follow@cimini Many covet grabbing a top rated player and player’s in the first six to eight rounds of fantasy football drafts. We all know that injuries run rampant for starters because they are on the field the most. Grabbing other starters in the mid to late rounds with possible upside is the area owners lack preparation on. Complaining about injuries every year to why your team fell apart gets old. Pre-plan better and execute proper acquisitions in your entire fantasy draft. If a GM of a team became lackadaisical with their mid to late round draft picks, you’d see it on the field. Turnover of those draft picks would be evident. When it’s time to depend on those young athletes there is no one to properly do so, and the team morale dips. You’re in charge of your fantasy team, and it can’t all be revamped through a trade or the waiver wire. Josh Freeman is a fantasy quarterback that likely went undrafted in a large portion of drafts (Available in 63% of Yahoo Leagues). Freeman is a quarterback that I believe is going into 2013 vastly underrated. Everyone is high on Doug Martin, and the Buccaneers receivers in Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. A simple premise would lead you to believe that Freeman could and should bounce back in 2013. He is in the second year with this Buccaneers core group and offense. A running game is supposed to open up the passing attack—and Martin is projected to be a top three to five running back. If Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams build upon last year—as they should—who is going to be a beneficiary of their success? Josh Freeman A lot of people believe Freeman is not the guy Schiano wants to back, and feel Freeman fits the old Jason Campbell mold. Solid but not good enough to garner a starting position in the NFL. Wait a minute. Just a few seasons ago Freeman quelled that speculation with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Even last year his touchdown totals were not bad with 27. That total ranked him 7th in the NFL for touchdown passes. Sure his interceptions at seventeen were higher than people would like, but the fact is, Freeman can throw the football. I do not believe the Buccaneers will opt to bench Freeman in favor of Glennon. If they do it’s going to be much later in the season, when the Buccaneers are clearly out of playoff contention. The potential is there for Freeman to have a bright season and surprise some folks like he did a few seasons ago. We’re not talking about a quarterback I’d expect you to draft as a starter. Freeman is a backup fantasy quarterback just being overlooked. Do you really want Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and several other quarterbacks drafted as backups over Freeman? All of the quarterbacks I just mentioned have shaky running back situations—in fact only Rivers has one that should be decent but has been tabbed rightfully as injury prone and inconsistent. Freeman may not cut his interceptions down dramatically, but a rise in touchdown passes could offset that. I’ll re-state that he threw 24 touchdowns in his first full year as starter, and then 27 last year under a new offense. You’d think the next step would be to reach darn close to thirty touchdown passes. He is in a contract year as well, with the burden of performing well on his shoulders. The veterans in the NFL are well established and then there is the budding talent of youth that has stormed the league. Guys like Josh Freeman are being overlooked far too much. He has better fantasy caliber than quite a few fantasy backup quarterbacks that were drafted over him. I don’t expect the Yahoo fantasy ownership numbers to be below 75-80% for far too long. In fact, I’ll boldly state that Freeman is one of the biggest percentage leapers from non-rosters before the NFL season to being an addition by week four.

Power To The Backfield

Follow@cimini The BCS Championship was supposed to be a matchup of the two best teams in college football when Notre Dame and Alabama took the field. All the hype of a possible Notre Dame upset over Alabama was pushed even higher by the Notre Dame fanfare. They had beaten Stanford and Oklahoma, so seemingly they stood a chance against Alabama. Eddie Lacy’s dictated running, spin moves, and shedding of tacklers put an end to that moot point. The bowl game turned from a championship into what looked like a week one college game. A game usually dedicated to conference powers tuning up for the season with a weak opponent. The demolition derby began early and was a three hour spectacle of Alabama’s coup de grace over Notre Dame. How Eddie Lacy performed in that game with ease, surely was thought to catapult him as a first round pick. Poor draft workouts and surgery nicked his stock a little bit, but not to the dismay of the Green Bay Packers. The carousel of backs since Ahman Green had a productive season has seen the likes of Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and even Cedric Benson a year ago. Voicing displeasure surely would of happened by other quarterbacks around the league, but Aaron Rodgers is an on the field performer and not a media guy. Having success with a rookie running back has fallen from the hey days of Robert Edwards and Fred Taylor years ago. Last year though it resurrected with top backs Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, and sixth round draft pick Albert Morris all having quality seasons. Significant impact years that retrained the eyes of fantasy owners and dynasty league drafts to pay attention to a rookie running back no matter if he is drafted in the first round or not. Like Merril Hoge says a factor back is a factor. Coming into the NFL it is never guaranteed for immediate success but chances are growing now that more teams are in need for bigger depth at the running back position. Aging of backs has also caused a somewhat of a make shift of longevity in running backs lessening the opportunities of rookie backs. With the surplus of backs and cut downs on carries per game, its aging backs better. A veteran that does not see the field too much as a second or third back is going to be considered by other teams, while before teams would just rebuild through the draft. Now teams know the legs are not burnt up from their first four to five years in the league, and can count on them for a second contract. It’s sort of similar to how the NBA handles second round draft picked rookies. Contracts are not guaranteed so they make those picks fight out a roster spot with an NBA/Overseas veteran that has just as much talent. The gap has closed in the backfield for elite prospects, so why over pay for a first round running back? Eddie Lacy is trying to buck the notion that he should of fell to the second round, instead of being a first round pick. Many would want to point out the fact that Mark Ingram from Alabama has not even surpassed Pierre Thomas on the Saints depth chart. That is true, but a situation can change all of everything, and Lacy has that chance in Green Bay. With Duane Harris just going down to a season ending injury the Packers have exactly what Lacy wants. Opportunity. He gets to step in a heavy workload situation where he can either fall out of favor with the Packers quickly, or supplant himself steadily in a role the Packers have been trying to fill for years. Green Bay still has running backs James Starks and Alex Green and may utilize them early in the season if Lacy struggles. But Green Bay knows what Starks and Green can offer them and want to build away from that, not onto it. Jonathan Franklin the other rookie drafted from UCLA appears to be behind in understanding the offense so his impact will be little if any until later in the season. This predicament with Lacy can leave fantasy drafters with endless questions. To draft Lacy as their second or third back, or let him stray to unchartered waters elsewhere, and not have to worry about him altogether. I believe Lacy is vastly undervalued right now, and even more with the season-ending injury to Harris who the Packers planned on involving heavily. Let’s put the past few semi-successful running backs in Green Bay in perspective. In a passing attack that ranks top five with the best quarterback in football, James Starks and Ryan Grant had solid seasons. Starks had more of an impact in the Green Bay Packers playoff Super Bowl run because he was coming off an injury. Grant’s heyday was more with Brett Favre but he still provided solid action and results for the Packers. If those two backs can do it why not Lacy? The primary issue with Green Bay Packers running backs in the past has been injuries. Lacy has already had a few that he has had to recover from, and will need to avoid the injury bug. Being ranked anymore from the high teens to mid 20’s is where Lacy is falling for running backs. Select Lacy as your third running back and stamp trade bait and the green arrow next to him for stock rising. For where he is ranked even if he only stays your backup running back you can’t complain. But like last year’s rookie crop, I doubt he’ll stay on the bench too long.

Forty Million Dollars Later

Follow @cimini When Greg Paulus decided to re-open his recruitment to attain a last year of eligibility via a college’s graduate program, many believed Syracuse would be the school he chose. Doubts crept quickly though on how Paulus would play the position of quarterback after spending the last four years as a Duke point guard. The answer was easy. Find and throw to Mike Williams as much as you can. Paulus did just that and the two had a dynamic combination. Williams broke a Big East record with touchdowns in nine straight games and had the attention on NFL scouts. Attention that Syracuse had dropped the distinction of becoming possible for several years as a cellar team in the Big East. In a span of weeks Williams promising return from academic troubles to a productive junior season looked like it was washed away again. New head coach Doug Marrone had suspended Williams and other Syracuse player’s for violating conduct. Williams would not return to play another down at Syracuse. Tarnishing his draft stock was inevitable and did as he fell to the fourth round. Williams had a choice to make at that moment and throughout his first three seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers his name has remained out of the unwanted type of athlete news---Ticker Flash News Across ESPN. Instead he relished the opportunity to do what was correct and let his career as an NFL receiver be the only objective as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. As a rookie in 2010, Williams helped Josh Freeman to a career year with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Williams caught an astonishing eleven of Freeman’s 25 touchdowns. A new dynamic tandem had been branched together down in Florida. A tandem Florida likely has not seen from any of their teams in Jacksonville, Miami, or Tampa Bay since Mark Brunell to Jimmy Smith. That’s how bad the three franchises had been over the last five to six years between quarterbacks and wide receivers. 2011 did not fare well as a team for Tampa Bay and Williams did not play near as well with the added attention by defenses to him. It was a combination of things and Tampa Bay ultimately decided to let Raheem Morris go. Greg Schiano was brought in and anytime a new tenure is enforced changes on roster’s can happen at the drop of a dime. Vincent Jackson was signed to a mega-contract and that made Williams role even more unclear heading into the 2012 season. Playing on a rookie contract for a fourth round pick, Williams was once again faced with an opportunity to step up or have the walking papers handed to him. He rose to the occasion and put up stellar numbers as a likely WR4 or WR5 in most fantasy leagues. Fantasy playoffs are the time to shine for participants. More and more attention is being paid to athletes that can put forth a different type of season in that final stretch of the fantasy playoffs. Mike Wiliams did that and had four touchdowns in the last five games of the season. Tampa Bay did not hesitate to retain Williams as they see a bright future for him alongside Vinny Jackson. Quietly they re-signed Williams to a forty million dollar contract. Now it’s time for Williams to put the same type of work in he has throughout his years at Syracuse and Tampa Bay to prove that his contract is worthy. Vincent Jackson is a young thirty years old, so chances are high that this combination will be together for at least three to four seasons. Not too bad for an athlete that had twelve other receivers drafted ahead of him, including Arrelious Benn. A second rounder drafted by Tampa Bay who is no longer on the team, and trying to make the Philadelphia Eagles roster now.

Austin Gives Rams Two More Wins

Follow@cimini

Diamonds in the rough for fantasy owners seeking gems on poor NFL teams may not be worth the risk. There are always a handful of teams that are not fantasy football friendly. Yardage and touchdowns are going to happen, but the pace and frequency they come by will vary to the extreme on some NFL teams. You should only have high questions on a mere one or two players that you draft. Upside is what you seek with your fantasy roster depth. For that to happen you’ll look for players that are third wide receivers on high potent offenses or maybe a rookie or two that could flourish in the second part of the season. Like Dennis Green said after blowing a fourth quarter lead on Monday Night Football , “They’re what we thought they were”. If you’re on a diet and still mixing in sweets, you fully know that you’re results are not going to be what you want. The same holds true in fantasy football. You know going into your drafts they’re certain teams to avoid. Here are teams that should be in your future fantasy football draft plans, like a planned vacation in a few years. New York Jets Yes the Jets crack this list once again. The same issues are at the forefront as last season, with question marks the size of 2009 Rex Ryan at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Santonio Holmes has played like an athlete far below where he was as a Steeler, and Stephen Hill looked like was drafted way too high for a second round pick. I can’t see the Jets having a receiver eclipse the 700 yard mark. There may be some hope at running back with Shonn Greene finally gone. Chris Ivory is just returning so will have to see how the time share works with Bilal Powell. Seattle Seahawks I can hear the die-hard Seahawks fans screaming at the fact that they’re team is listed on here. Fantasy football is about value at positions. Positionally speaking they have not been a team that has garnered value at wide receiver. Fans thought there was a chance when Nate Burelson was brought in and then Sidney Rice. Neither were successful. Then Percy Harvin was brought in but he is lost for the season. The fact is Seattle has a way of winning and it’s found that way without having a dominant receiver. Seattle has not had a receiver reach over 1,000 yards since Bobby Engram in 2007. Buffalo Bills Poor Douggie Marrone. Syracuse is looking quite nice right now isn’t it? Just two weeks ago Buffalo fans and the rest of the NFL were drawing back on their harsh criticisms of drafting EJ Manuel so high. Furthermore who some people wanted Marrone to draft, in his college quarterback, Ryan Nassib, has struggled horribly in preseason. In a quick snap Manuel went down and now Kevin Kolb. That’s forced Buffalo to potentially start an undrafted rookie in Jeff Tuel, and signing Matt Leinart. And you thought the Bills had it bad with the Trent Edwards to TO combination a few years back. Having Matt Leinart to serve as your veteran leader to provide feedback to Tuel and Manuel is a recipe for disaster. Oakland Raiders The tug of war struggles to take the first team snaps has plagued Matt Flynn again. Neither Pryor or Flynn have jumped out at me in preseason. Running the football for success like Pryor has happens when you’re down 20 plus points, like the Raideres were to the Bears. If you want to play from behind to have statistical success, than by all means, shoot for that goal. Oakland needs to address the quarterback situation by aiming for one through the draft. The carousel of rotating back and forth with Flynn and Pryor this season may be the ugliest of all quarterback situations. This may even trickle down and effect Darren McFadden more so than people may think. San Diego Chargers This team has some hope, but I need to see some early season indicator to take them off this list. Keenan Allen could be a prospect worth watching. A player of his caliber needs a solid veteran or two at receiver to help him prosper on the field. With Danario Alexander out, Robet Meachem non-existent, Eddie Royal battling issues, and Malcolm Floyd battling injuries, one has to wonder who Philip Rivers is going to throw the football too. There is a lot of names but no one truly to step in and fill the voids of three top caliber wide receivers. Antonio Gates isn’t a spry up and down quick maneuvering transformed basketball player to tight end anymore. He is slower version that relies more on his size and hands, which is a recipe for more interceptions from Rivers, as safeties and linebackers have more time to react. It’s not all horrible. Here are some teams that have been taken off the fantasy oasis of no value from 2012 to 2013. Arizona- All it took was a change over all around for the Cardinals to make a move at quarterback. As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy this should be a revitalized offense. Miami- They’ve upgraded at receiver and even though they took a blow with Dustin Keller going down, they have a solid young nucleus of talent. Kansas City- They’re barely off the bubble. But Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn put the stamp on worse offensive output possibilities last year, even over Arizona and the NY Jets. Alex Smith and the mind of Andy Reid should change things a bit. Jacksonville- Look for Jacksonville to do better than people think. Quarterback, Blaine Gabbert is just 23 years old. His mistake was likely leaving for the NFL a year early as far as for his progression on the field. It was smart in terms of dollars as he did not make the Matt Barkley mistake. Gabbert is younger than Russ Wilson (24) and Ryan Tannehill (25), and the same age as Andrew Luck and RG3 who were all drafted a year after Gabbert. Jacksonville went the old school way of building through youth and through the draft. They’ve taken a lot of down years for it, but they might have a structure ready to blossom finally.