Fantasy Football

TOP POTENTIAL FANTASY BUSTS

Thursday, 21 August, 2014

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All the fantasy rankings in the world do not matter when it comes to busts. They’re going to happen. Whether it’s first round talent, rookies, veterans, and received fantasy trades. Putting together a full roster is never going to be perfect. Here is a top ten list of potential fantasy busts for 2014.

1. Peyton Manning
Yes I’m putting Peyton Manning atop my list of possible busts for 2014. Manning’s track record showcases that he’ll never hit a wall barring injury. Sooner or later though the body breaks down and halts even the greats. Manning just a few years ago in his first season with Denver looked rusty. His arm was stale and the zip gone. He managed to regain it and performed fine a year ago. Much like an aging pitcher though, can Manning do it game in and game out for sixteen games? I expect his numbers to dip for over zealous fantasy owners.

2. Brandon Marshall
Sometimes you see such a strong offense that you become numbed to an emerging star. Chicago has that in the younger Alshon Jeffreys. Marshall has the connection with Cutler intact but I think we will see Jeffreys overtake Marshall in the fantasy department.

3. Andre Ellington
I wrote a column about the Cardinals historical success at tailback dating back to 1999. They’ve only had three seasons of 1,000 yard rushers. Emmitt Smith in the twilight of his career and back to back years from Edgerrin James. Ellington showed the same flash we’ve seen before in Cardinal backs such as Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, and Michael Pittman. None ever transpired to fantasy success. Ellington may be different but where he is situated to be drafted doesn’t sit well with me.

4. Sammy Watkins
Everyone knows the sky is the limit for Watkins. He has endless talent. The problem is the Bills direction offensively. EJ Manuel will still be playing like a rookie based on the amount of games he missed a year ago. Secondly, they haven’t solved what direction they want to go at tail back. Watkins will be one of those receivers that has two to three standout games, but is MIA in the rest.

5. Vincent Jackson
The tall target in Vincent Jackson was the lone bright spot for a Buccaneers team that fell apart a year ago. Many of the same question marks remain in Tampa Bay. McCown was brought in to aid if Glennon can’t get the job done. In all likelihood he will end up on the field. Jackson still has talent but I think we’ll see a similar drop off in his production like we have seen from Marques Colston.

Others
6. CJ Spiller
7. DeSean Jackson
8. Trent Richardson
9. TY Hilton
10. Michael Crabtree

MLB FREE PLAY IN REDS/CARDINALS

Wednesday, 20 August, 2014

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The NL wild card race features both of these teams in the Reds and Cardinals. Just a week ago the Reds appeared to be in strong contention for a spot. They’ve had a rough stretch since, while the rest of the NL seems to be winning. St. Louis is one of those teams that has been winning with rejuvenated pitching and returned hitting.

Their bats coming alive have been the primary reason for their wins. Against San Diego and the Reds they have fought off issues with their relievers to come from behind or hold off rallies.

With so much momentum on the Reds bats and the Cardinals bats some bettors today are going to think automatically on the over in this matchup for a plus payout. Lets not greedy here. The line for the under was -115 and has moved to -130 on the under of 7.

Both pitchers have been outstanding as of late, and Cueto has been all year. Look for some normalcy in strong pitching tonight and a solid play on the under.

The Andy Reid Drag Down RB Factor

Wednesday, 20 August, 2014

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After last years fantastic all-purpose season by Jamaal Charles he has become the unanimous top back to get. Andy Reid has always ran a high velocity offense centered around the tailback. Success has been had in prior Eagles systems and running backs such as Duce Staley, Correll Buckhalter, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy.

A familiar link with all of those running backs is that there success was stymied eventually because of the heavy dosage they get. Duce Staley’s success started in 1998 and 1999 before injuries derailed him. He had a resurrection of sorts and become a capable fantasy backup with success out of the backfield in 2002 and 2003.

A similar pattern can be found in former star, Brian Westbrook. From quick memory you would of thought he had a great five year run as an Eagle. On the contrary he had two outstanding seasons followed up by a quick career burnout. In 2007 and 2008 he tallied career years with rushing yards of over 2500 combined and receiving yards of near 1200. Injuries quickly took their toll on Westbrook and he fell off quickly in a short stint with the 49ers.

LeSean McCoy was on his way to the same pattern in Philadelphia. His breakout seasons were in 2010 and 2011 before injuries took away a full season from him in 2012—-Andy Reid’s last year. Chip Kelly runs a high amount of plays but keeps has his players prepared for the volume and rotates them properly.

Now we turn to Jamaal Charles. In Charles first year under Andy Reid he saw a dramatic rise in his role as a Chief. His rushing numbers did come down a bit from the prior year but he caught 70 passes totaling nearly 700 yards.

This is looked on by fantasy football participants as gold. The old school workload that produces a gluttony amount of points in PPR leagues. Charles already had a serious injury that caused him to miss the 2011 season. A freak dorm exit injury has Charles currently with a bum foot.

That’s not alarming enough but I would have strong caution with everyone’s unanimous top fantasy pick. His utilization is bound to cause another Andy Reid overused running back to suffer during the season.

BEST BYE WEEK FANTASY FOOTBALL STRATEGIES

Tuesday, 19 August, 2014

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In fantasy football planning is everything. Being a manager consists of proper preparation. You can draft the best team on paper and be left with all types of issues. Poor play, injuries, team inconsistencies that reduces team talent, and the crucial all important bye weeks.

Bye weeks can be your best friend in leagues that managers give up in. It happens all the time. The classic manager that digs her or himself a hole and flat out stops managing the team. You can catch a break with pure luck as the owner hasn’t set his lineup and has two to three players sitting out on a bye week.

That’s a process of pure laziness on those owners behalves. Here are a few simple strategies to pre-plan not having a major hole on those ever-crucial bye weeks.

Know your team
It’s a simple thought but knowing your team shouldn’t catch you by surprise. You don’t want to be coming off a fantasy football win and then figure out on Tuesday that you have two potential starting receivers on bye weeks. You should know this way ahead and bolster your bench positions before hand. If the bye week is week six that gives you a month and a half leeway to figure things out. You can either do that via a trade or managing the waiver wire. Risking a loss in a likely 13-14 game regular fantasy football season can’t be tolerated, especially in a money league.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends Deserve the Highest Attention
I see this mistake far too often as well. An owner will invest heavily through auction or standard drafts at getting an elite tight end or quarterback. Their plan is a no-brainer and to start that tight end or quarterback all year. This strategy seems acceptable but it’s not. That’s two combined weeks having to use a lower tier non-starter. To make up this ground you need to offset this with favorable matchups. Your current backup quarterback or tight end does not have to be your starter that week. Look at a backup quarterback that’s starting because of an injury. Last year Josh McCown paid huge dividends for fantasy owners and there are countless other examples of this.

Upgrade, upgrade, and upgrade
Do not be a lazy fantasy owner. Take it seriously and find the resources to make your team better. All information is out there to make an improvement for any bye week scenario. Analyze and make the proper moves for those two to three tough bye week decisions a year.

FANTASY FOOTBALL NEWS AND NOTES

Saturday, 16 August, 2014

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Thursday and Friday of the NFL preseason week two are in the books. Lets take a look at some risers in terms of fantasy football for this season.

Risers

Blake Bortles
Bortles shined last year at Central Florida and saw his stock rise to unparalleled heights. Being taken by Jacksonville the time table for him entering the field seems immediate. The team though has plans on bringing Bortles on slowly. We will have to see if that upholds based on Bortles strong preseason game against the Bears. It was on national television and he shined as a worthy controversial starter over Chad Henne. For now though look for Jacksonville to stick to the plan. Bortles is definitely a keeper league pick but nothing else of consideration.

Jordan Matthews
Chip Kelly’s plan to use Matthews all over the place showed promise Friday. Matthews had nine catches for over one hundred yards. Matthews rating amongst receivers still remains challenged, and should not be drafted higher than the top 30 range. We will need to see more from him before he becomes a true riser. All the Eagles quarterbacks threw a seemingly flawless game from completions versus attempts. Your not going to run and pickup Sanchez or Barkley so don’t do so with Matthews. Upside is there though.

Others: Brandon LaFell, Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter, and Percy Harvin

Podcast: A Preview of Tonight’s Preseason Action and MLB

Friday, 15 August, 2014

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Notjustagame.com’s, Zack Cimini, gives insight on betting on preseason football and today’s games in MLB.