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Last week I took a look at the AFC East division for win totals. Today I’ll take a look at the AFC North. In the north the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers have all had their share of successes over the last five years. Baltimore got it done with their reliable defense and steady arm of Joe Flacco. Pittsburgh’s nucleus hasn’t changed much either with the arm of Big Ben.

Cincinnati though over hauled their team when Carson Palmer demanded out. Right about that time is when the Bengals saw a drastic difference in the way the team played. It doesn’t mean Carson was a poor quarterback, it’s just a mark on the time line of the franchise. They retained Marvin Lewis which many people disagreed on and made better personnel decisions with their draft picks.

Still, oddsmakers do not have them out in front by much in the division. Lets take a look at the division and give a pick on over/unders.

Cincinnati 9– Pick Over
Many are doubting Andy Dalton’s contract and ability. They can doubt but there is no doubting the core of talent on the Bengals. It’s a sound team that has youth and growing talent on both sides of the football. In Baltimore and Pittsburgh both teams still have aged talent and question marks from last season. Both should be better but the Bengals have in my mind the best team in the division. They’re a bit underrated from the oddmakers because of the continued love for Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Baltimore 8.5- Pick Over
Things just were in complete disarray a season ago in Baltimore. The Super Bowl hangover was in full affect. A new offensive system with Gary Kubiak should help riddle the offensive woes that lacked the punch to help their defense. Ray Rice’s down season wasn’t just shocking to fantasy football owners but to the Ravens overall. They’ll have a new look this year and be able to gain an extra couple of wins because of it.

Pittsburgh 8.5- Pick Under
Sometimes an organization needs to gut things out and make tough decisions. Since Hines Ward retired this team has lost its identity offensively and got worse on defense. They’ve become faster on defense but that’s not going to alleviate big plays from happening. Offensively I still don’t believe there is enough premier talent to get them back atop this division.

Cleveland 6.5- Pick Under
A few weeks ago I liked the over here. Normally I wouldn’t let preseason play sway my conviction but I’ll go a different route here. 6.5 is a steep number for a team with large question marks at quarterback and with a surely suspended top receiver in Josh Gordon. If the set win total was 5-5.5 my hesitancy to stick with the over wouldn’t of swayed. It’s just too large of a number in a tough division.

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Today’s free play focuses on the San Diego Chargers vs the San Francisco 49ers. Surely there will be some heavy hearts as the bay area is affected by an Earthquake in Napa Valley.

The line on this game is currently at minus five for the San Francisco 49ers. The first two games of the preseason the 49ers have had as basic of a vanilla offense as a team can have. This is nothing new as the 49ers played similar in last years preseason with Colt McCoy as backup.

It looks like bettors are anticipating an aggressive game plan from the 49ers tonight. But how many series will Kaepernick actually play? That’ll be a tough mark to predict. In all likelihood the 49ers will need to rely on big series from struggling backup Blaine Gabbert to procure a point spread cover here.

In order to get this cover the 49ers will need to get the job done defensively. I think that’s where the spread does have the advantage in the 49ers favor. This defense has played decent in the preseason but will turn it up another notch as the starters are on the field longer. San Diego struggled mightily against the Seahawks defense and likely will see similar pressure and style of play.

Nab the 49ers today as a free play, as the defense should hold up and keep the Chargers from getting a high amount of points. Final score San Francisco 24 and San Diego 13.

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Yesterday was nearly all chalk for Friday’s preseason games on the larger spreads. Seattle annihilated the Bears while the Packers and Patriots cruised as well. Packers bettors had a bit of a scare as the Raiders made things interesting late, but it wasn’t enough to knock off the largely backed Packers.

Saturday features a gamut of preseason football action. Eight games are featured with closer point spreads than Friday’s minimal board. All are between 2.5 and 3.5 point spreads besides for the Denver Broncos at 7 points.

I have a couple of premium plays of the eight games on the board today, but lets take a look at the Redskins vs Ravens as a free play

Lets focus on Washington vs Baltimore. These two teams are close in proximity in the Maryland area. Fan bases are extreme on both sides, so this will be played as one of Saturday’s more prominent games.

With the way Baltimore’s 2nd and 3rd string finished out their game last week, you’d expect a much stronger start today. They held a 34-10 lead against Dallas in the third quarter only to let Dallas score three straight touchdowns and cut the lead to 34-30. They held onto win but you can believe the Ravens staff wasn’t thrilled with the lack of effort in protecting the lead.

Washington on the other hand is 2-0 and had strong efforts from their defense. Similar to the Ravens second and third string defenses, they also had a pour effort against the Browns in the fourth period. They gave up three touchdowns and gave up a hail mary that would of sent the game into overtime in the regular season.

Some may want to play the under in this game because of the way the defenses played last week. I’ll stay away from that angle. Washington played a dreadful offense with the Browns inexperience of Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer struggling. In week one they faced a Patriots team that struggled with Ryan Mallet under center.

Baltimore’s first two weeks were awfully similar to the Redskins experience. They throttled the 49ers in week one with Blaine Gabbert and Josh Johnson getting the majority of snaps.

I’d look for the Redskins to have the advantage here as 2.5 point underdogs. The combination of RG3 and Kirk Cousins is a much higher upgrade than the Cowboys and 49ers. The same can be said for the defensive effort the Redskins will get from their first unit for a half or three quarters over a few series from the 49ers and a half from the Cowboys.

Enjoy today’s free play and look under today’s picks for the rest of today’s premium plays.

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No longer should a fantasy owner frown upon a crowded backfield in the NFL. The gradual effect over the years of teams using their backs properly has led to better depth in fantasy football. Years ago fantasy teams could dominate by having one of the top five fantasy picks and getting a running back that carries the football 30 times a game.

It’s also alleviated the necessity to waste a pick handcuffing a running back. It was a norm to do so and essentially a waste of a pick if an injury did not occur.

Here are the best duo’s in the NFL this season that surely will bring relief instead of headaches to fantasy football owners.

Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount
They are in the news for the wrong reason right now, but Pittsburgh did themselves a solid job in bringing in Blount. He has only been in the league for a handful of years but has had better than expected seasons in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Two years from now he may be out of the league, but I expect him to be a strong asset this season. Bell showcased his skills last year and is now considered a borderline top ten fantasy back.

Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman
Unlike most fantasy prognosticators I believe the Broncos will shift to more of a running team. This will be to protect the ever-aging Peyton Manning. Their ground game has been underrated even through the Tebow season. Look for this backfield to surprise some and have a strong aggregate total.

Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen
New England shifted to more of a running team a couple of seasons ago, and it has worked. Last year they had injuries and fumbling issues with Ridley that were offset with LeGarrette Blount. Having a healthy Shane Vereen should get this backfield to an even higher level than a year ago.

Others: McFadden/MJD, Reggie Bush/Joique Bell, Lamar Miller/Knowshown Moreno, Giovani Bernard/Green-Ellis, Lacy/Starks, Jackson/Spiller/Brown

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I have a premium play tonight in the Panthers vs Patriots. The current line is -5 on the Patriots side. Lets take a look at the other games on the slate tonight.

For the first two weeks of the preseason I recommended passing on any action. If you did lets hope that patience pays off over the final two weeks and into the regular season.

Tonight is the first night in preseason that we’ve seen a couple of big numbers on the board. Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite and New England roughly around 5-5.5. Obviously with starters getting major playing time that has an effect on the point spread.

In case of Green Bay they have a polar opposite of talent compared to the Raiders. Oakland has an aging backfield that brought in MJD and a quarterback coming off one of the lowest of lows from a starter in ten years. Matt Schaub appears to be in the Donovan McNabb mold, when McNabb was on the descent of his career. He showed a flash here or there in Washington before caving completely in Minnesota. Still, a 7.5 point spread may not be justified.

One that I do like as a free play is the Giants and Jets under the total. These two teams play every year in the preseason. Right now you’d have to give the edge to the defenses over their offenses. The Jets have always had a better defense than offense so that’s not new. For the Giants they’ve struggled immensely offensively in the preseason. Even if Eli plays a half or three quarters, I do not believe they have the capable backups to string together a successful fourth quarter.

Enjoy tonight’s preseason games and study hard for your upcoming fantasy football money league drafts.

trim.375A2DE1-E510-4ECB-956A-922B4FD70D47 from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.