Fantasy Football: Five Players to Upgrade and Downgrade

Follow@cimini

Upgrades

Russ Wilson
Wilson was impressive in orchestrating a rout against the Green Bay Packers Thursday. He seems to be ready to elevate his game to another level that should be fantasy friendly. He has always talked the talk with proper interviews and now it’s translating onto the field.

Andy Dalton
The Bengals could have folded as a team offensively with the way the game tracked. In fact most of the time when you see teams give away a lead they fold with under six minutes to go. After five first half field goals and a missed sixth attempt, the Bengals found themselves down 16-15 with under six minutes. Dalton stayed poised and delivered a game winning touchdown bomb to AJ Green. He may not be a post season quarterback just yet, but he has shown through the years to be a steady fantasy quarterback in the regular season.

Codarrelle Patterson
Maybe the Vikings have something going that the rest of the league will follow suit with. They originally drafted Percy Harvin for his speed and shiftiness in the open field. It worked for a few seasons out of the backfield and at wide receiver before he ended up in Seattle. It looks like the Vikings had another route in mind when they landed Patterson. His speed and open field ability is on another level. Fantasy owners that got him as a relative mid round pick are grinning from ear to ear.

Markus Wheaton
It wasn’t the offense of the Steelers that impressed me, it was the defense. From a fantasy football players perspective you have to love the fact that the Steelers defense is still in shambles. They nearly allowed the Browns to come all the way back and win the game. But knowing that the defense is still a work in progress means that the Steelers will continue to throw a lot offensively. That boosts Wheaton who had nearly 100 yards receiving on six catches Sunday.

Pierre Thomas
Most draftees of Thomas were able to land him as their fourth running back and best flex option. The Saints have shown that they don’t mind feeding the ball to Thomas out of the backfield, as he was great in this area last season. When they decided to bring him back many people were not sure if it would be in the same capacity. After seven carries for 30 yards and seven catches for nearly 60 yards, those questions have been answered.

Downgrades

Ben Tate
Tate owners are extremely displeased with his early season injury against the Steelers. Though he will likely return soon he already has the injury bug tabbed on him from his Houston days. Owners better find a way to trade for Terrance West if you do not have him already. West came in and showcased that he can handle the load with sixteen carries for 100 yards against the Steelers.

Vincent Jackson
The problems with Tampa Bay’s week one performance are not going to resolve themselves in one or two games. Josh McCown had a couple of awful interceptions and really never got back into gear after the first turnover. Obviously if McCown continues to struggle it’s going to have a downgraded effect to Jackson. You have to move him down until the team shows better promise. Right now the offense would rank dead last from what I saw this week.

Doug Martin
Doug Martin seems to be heading down Steve Slaton territory. He came out of nowhere to have one stellar season. Owners drafted him high last year with injuries ending that season. Promise for a comeback based on his season two years ago looks far fetched after week one. He ran the ball nine times for just nine yards. A bad game against the Panthers isn’t something to overreact about, but Martin has a steep hill to climb to get anywhere near the value he was drafted for.

Trent Richardson
Richardson seems to be attacking aggressively but just doesn’t have the gear to get out of the hole. It’s hard to tell if Richardson can get in gear if Indianapolis always digs themselves a hole. But his downward progression has been going on for over a year now. Sooner or later the Colts are going to run out of patience as fantasy owners are.

Jamaal Charles
Last month I profiled how backs falter under Andy Reid. It’s been a problem for over ten years. Kansas City’s offense was the second worst in week one behind the Buccaneers. Charles is the type of back though that can have five or six great games to offset this type of performance. His low carries though from week one have to be alarming.

Follow@cimini

**Any players from MNF that are waiver wire worthy will be added to this article

When it come to the waiver wire the coverage amongst fantasy football websites has been outstanding. You’re not going to miss a name nowadays with the instant access out there. What is missing is detailing over reaction. After just one week do not overreact and go after multiple players. It’s like trading stocks. You can’t sell every week and expect to make gains. When you sell is when that stock reverts upward and helps your portfolio. Treat your team the same way. Go after value if it’s there but do not overreact off of one week’s results. With that being said, lets take a look at some players to pick up this week.

Quarterbacks

Jake Locker
It looked like Tennessee was going to win in ugly fashion as they typically have done under Jake Locker. It was a close game at halftime and 10-3 in the third quarter. Then Locker took control and beat a team on the road soundly in Kansas City. A team that has had strong success as a home team. This is a key year for Locker and will need to show consistency to become a viable regular starter. For now with what he can do with his legs and his maturation as a passer he is worth a stash if you’re in need of an upgrade at backup.

Joe Flacco
For all the negative attention Flacco draws, it’s remarkable how Baltimore stays in a majority of their games. One of the main reasons is that Flacco doesn’t allow his team to give up. With an inability to run the football for an entire half, Baltimore axed the game plan and went Flacco’s way. He had a complete reversal in accuracy and was throwing crisp balls. It was too late to attempt to get a win but if Flacco can avoid interceptions he is a top tier fantasy backup quarterback.

Running Backs

Carlos Hyde
Sometimes it’s not just all about jump out stats for a waiver wire addition. Hyde only had seven carries but made each one count Sunday. He ran for 50 yards and a touchdown. What’s impressive with Hyde is he showed the power the 49ers want in the second half with a back. Frank Gore was able to do it for years by himself but at his age the team needs a complimentary back. Hyde and Gore wore down the 49ers with Hyde showing he is well worth a second round pick.

DeAngelo Williams
The knock on Carolina backs is their goal line use. A lot of valuable touchdowns go to Cam Newton on dives and to big bruiser Mike Tolbert. With Newton’s rib injury being as serious as it is, we all have no clue how that changes the way Carolina runs Newton. Maybe they’ll tone it back in goal line situations to avoid Newton taking unnecessary hits. Williams can get the yardage but will need to see more attention in the red zone.

Chris Ivory
Ivory’s been on this waiver wire list for the past three seasons. The problem is once he gets added he gets re-dropped. New York won against Oakland Sunday but got a way with miscues from second year starter Geno Smith. Against a seasoned quarterback as opposed to a rookie in Derek Carr, things may have got interesting. Look for the Jets to make a commitment to running the ball with the likes of Ivory to keep Smith’s errors at a minimum. Smith had a couple of costly turnovers and an ill-advised sack in field goal range.

Mark Ingram
The game against the Falcons was as chaotic as it gets. Amongst the chaos was an all around great fantasy producing Saints team. Everyone seemed to be involved as Brees and the ground attack worked well. The Saints have been so heavy of an offensive passing touchdown team that their running backs get devalued. Sunday, the Saints rushed for three touchdowns with two coming by Ingram. It likely won’t be the norm, but it’s good to know a team that can score has an asset in Ingram who is available in nearly 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Wide Receivers

Ricardo Lockette
His stats did not jump out but he did find the end zone on Thursday night. Seattle is one of those teams that has had sneaky value from their wide receivers over the last couple of seasons. Russ Wilson hasn’t been a top tier yardage quarterback but you can see the transformation beginning. Seattle is entrusting him more with throws as they seem to be balancing the pass with the run. Before it was a run heavy offense and game managing Wilson because of their strong defense.

Kelvin Benjamin
Derek Anderson was the unheralded performer of the day Sunday. Carolina did not panic without Newton starting and likely made the announcement days earlier to the team. I firmly believe the Panthers made the right call in letting veterans Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell walk. They needed to add fresh talent and did so with Benjamin. But with any Carolina Panther offensive weapon you need to be patient with his results. Benjamin should be a quality fourth or fifth wide receiver for you in deeper leagues.

DeAndre Hopkins
Ryan Fitzpatrick has not been a top tier worthy fantasy starting quarterback, but on teams he has been on he has added value to the wide receivers. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins both had solid games in their debut with Fitzpatrick. Hopkins got the majority of his big day on one catch, but that’s all you need in the fantasy football world. The Texans held things back offensively as their defense played well enough to protect a lead. That won’t always be the case and Fitzpatrick will need to throw the football more.

Steve Smith Sr.
Smith is only owned in under 40% of Yahoo leagues. Look for that number to climb into the 70th percentile after his week one performance. Everything was stalled for the Ravens offensively until they handed the ball to Joe Flacco to air it out. Smith surprised and made a key big play down the sideline that pulled the game within a few points. Smith has had big week one’s before. Obviously at his age his upside is limited. But if the Ravens can’t figure out the ground game and trail, it gives higher value to Smith. This is a completely different style of offense in Baltimore than the slow pace of the Panthers.

Allen Hurns
I’m putting Hurns name on here even though he’ll likely be a one week wonder. After one half Hurns name was buzzing on twitter on where did this guy come from. A good story sometimes is brief. Hurns didn’t make another catch in the game and finished with over 110 yards and two touchdowns. Jacksonville’s offense hit a major wall against a recharged Eagles defense that lacked focus out the gate. Maybe they thought it was going to be easier than anticipated in facing Jacksonville. At any rate be careful on rushing to the wire to pickup Allen Hurns.

Follow@cimini

By the end of week two I will do a fantasy football video show before the games start. But for now I’ll go ahead and take care of fantasy football news and notes regarding injuries before you set that final fantasy football lineup at 12:59PMEST/9:59PST.

Andre Ellington
I tabbed Ellington in the offseason and preseason as a guy to downgrade. I wasn’t expecting an injury this early but his foot injury leaves him as a no-go for this week. There is no reason to await head coach Bruce Arians decision to play Ellington. Utilize the rest of your depth and bypass Ellington completely. It was first reported that Ellington would miss four to six weeks.

Sammy Watkins
I’m not as down on Watkins for his status week one against the Bears. He was good to go in practice and although getting hit in the rib area is never great, teams now have the gear to protect that area. We’ve seen quarterbacks play with rib injuries and still get hit hard in that area. Watkins isn’t going to catch the ball more than five or six times. He’ll protect his body and be fine against Chicago. If you’re light at the receiver position go ahead and insert him.

Kenny Stills
This injury to Stills regarding his quad will keep him out this week against Atlanta. Stills is still just a bench reserve until we see more consistency out of him. Last year he broke out in a string of games but that was it. Those thinking to start Brandin Cooks are probably getting giddy just a tad bit early. His role will be just like Stills a year ago. A speed decoy for Brees to find deep occasionally. Unless that home run ball hits your going to be stuck with a low amount of points from Stills.

Terrance Williams
Williams back injury should not keep him out against the 49ers. You never know how a back will respond until action takes place. It’s something Williams owners will have to watch week to week. But after time off Williams is young enough that his back should hold up. The question will be if he can for the entire season.

Cam Newton
Who knows what Ron Rivera and Cam Newton are discussing hours before kickoff. The point spread has not moved and is still stuck at 2.5. If Vegas isn’t reacting than why is the fantasy football world getting caught up in a stir. This is a rib injury that quarterbacks have played through countless times. I believe Newton will go and it’ll be up to the Panthers offensive line to dictate how long he stays in. If Tampa Bay is able to hit Newton early than we may see Derek Anderson. Either way Newton has always been a matchup starter. This week with his health a major question you have to sit him. Carolina will likely relegate his main asset of rushing the football to avoid his big frame being subjected to hits.

Rob Gronkowski
Is he ready for a full season in a Patriots uniform? We haven’t seen Gronkowski achieve that since that days of being paired up with Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez was one of the reasons why Gronkowski flourished the way he did, as he was a nightmare to cover himself. Now we have to see how fresh Gronkowski is after several injuries. It should be expected for Gronkowski to hold little value this week unless he gets into the end zone. But with Gronkowski expected to play 30-50% of snaps that will draw Miami’s attention. Sit Gronkowski this week.

Cecil Shorts
Jacksonville will rely on their young rookie receivers with Shorts out. Jacksonville has surprised before with emerging receivers but there is no reason to jump on the “could be” band wagon in week one for fantasy football. There aren’t enough injuries around the league to do so. No one should own any Jaguar currently beneath Shorts in fantasy leagues.

Follow@cimini

clip-2014-09-04 10;03;23 from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.

Follow@cimini

Let the bragging begin. If it wasn’t bad enough ten years ago, ego-boosting fantasy football fanatics can come back out starting tomorrow. Live scoring means that a touchdown and great start by a player means an instant “send” text to the league opponent.

Don’t let that 1-0 start by your buddy come against you. Get out the gate appropriately. I have a few under the radar fantasy starters to insert this week.

EJ Manuel
As low as I am on the Bills and Manuel this season I’m going to give the nod for Manuel this week. Chicago is an up tempo offense. With that style it leaves the all too familiar errors by Jay Cutler. Short fields should allow Manuel to have a couple of extra plus territory opportunities than normal. Chicago’s defense is nothing to write home about either.

Ryan Tannehill
If Miami’s offense truly is better than a year ago, than Tannehill should shine in game one against the Patriots. Though they did win in one of the games last year against the Patriots, they also lost a game that Tannehill was at fault for. After holding a 17-3 lead in the first game, Miami squandered the lead and lost thanks to costly errors by Tannehill. Later on in the season Tannehill redeemed himself a bit with a 300 yard game against the Patriots. The addition of Revis will score people away from Miami offensive payers but look for Tannehill to shock.

Mark Ingram
Oddly enough more people are higher on Trent Richardson from Alabama rather than Ingram. Ingram’s role still remains undefined but he should see an increase this season. Pierre Thomas has aged and will fill in as the Saints third down back to replace Sproles. If you’re looking for a flex option or surprise starter look Ingram’s way. We all have no clue if Drew Brees is truly 100 percent. The Saints play calling could scale back from Brees’s normal high attempts to keep him from straining his body.

Eric Decker
One guy that should have been a buy low athlete in your league is Eric Decker. Decker caught a bad rap as the guy that flourished only because of Peyton Manning. While his stats did likely skew a tad there is no reason to think Decker isn’t an upgrade to the past Jets receivers. Remember in college, Smith had receivers such as Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. With talent on the outside he can get the ball to his receivers. A matchup against the Raiders aged and banged up secondary is not a bad spot to start Decker.

Washington’s Defense
Lets not kid ourselves. A quarterback starting for his fifth team is a problem. Houston bridged their gap of signing or drafting a quarterback by bringing in Ryan Fitzpatrick for a season. It could get ugly real quick, and week one likely will be the beginning of a long season for Houston Texans fans.

Others: Derek Carr, Julius Thomas, Terrance Williams, Vincent Jackson, and Kenny Britt

Follow@cimini

Who to start and who to sit? The infamous weekly debate to be had in every worthy fantasy football league throughout the country. Part of the problem early on in the season is trusting your team as a whole. Do you lack confidence in a certain position or an unreliable likely starter? Probably. We all have holes in are teams, but their is a skill in diagnosing that and getting the most out of your team.

It starts with knowing who to sit rather than start. If you can diagnose to sit three to four names on your team, it leaves the rest of your roster breakdown manageable.

Lets take a look at week one and some names that I would sit.

Cam Newton
Newton is one of those quarterbacks that drives fantasy owners nuts early on in the season. But somehow he ends up being a staple towards the midpoint and end of season. Carolina just doesn’t have enough assets at receiver to deploy Newton as a starter week one. He has been slipping in fantasy drafts because of this. We also need to see how healthy Newton is out of the gate. I expect him to still be a top five quarterback by seasons end, but he has to be downgraded week one.

Tom Brady
If there’s one team in the division that Brady has struggled against it has been Miami. Both games last season could have easily been won by the Dolphins, as they teams split. With Rob Gronkowski on the field how will their chemistry be? It’s not easy to hit that on switch with limited on field experience in two seasons.

Marques Colston
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the youth develop quickly at wide receiver for the Saints, with Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks. Colston is still being picked as if he is Brees’s top weapon at wide receiver. Injuries and the dominance of Jimmy Graham have sort of balanced out Colston’s fading value. On one hand he has stayed in the limelight because of the attention Graham gets. On the other he should have been a much higher recipient if you actually break it down further. He hasn’t been and that’s why the Saints have spent picks trying to upgrade the position.

Jeremy Maclin
Eyes have lit up on buyers of Eagles players in fantasy drafts just because of the brand of football Chip Kelly plays. Lets tone that down a bit with Jeremy Maclin. He has been injury prone and has yet to establish himself in Kelly’s new offense or with starter Nick Foles. Over time he may be a solid wide receiver three starter, but until then Riley Cooper holds higher value for Philadelphia.

Others: CJ Spiller, Le’Veon Bell, Tony Romo, Michael Floyd, and Joe Flacco