Fantasy Football

TIER TWO: WEEK THREE BEST FANTASY FOOTBALL OPTIONS

Wednesday, 17 September, 2014

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With the snap of a finger fantasy football roster’s have trickled from outstanding health to labels of questionable and out next to their names. How quick things can change. New issues with roster’s leaves the need to rely upon your tier two athletes even more. Here are some tier two athletes to depend upon to boost your team’s overall fantasy output this weekend.

Michael Crabtree
Throughout Crabtree’s tenure with the 49ers he has been a productive receiver when healthy. He still isn’t 100 percent yet but he is the guy Colin Kaepernick is most comfortable with on the field. With how poor Kaepernick played last week, you’d expect the 49ers to design plenty of play calls to get Kaepernick feeling comfortable early and often. Crabtree should be the recipient of a big receiving day.

James Jones
Jones might end up being the fantasy guy that opposing fantasy teams disgust. Not many wins are expected for the Raiders as they try and grow with rookie quarterback Derek Carr. With that comes a lot of losing and opportunities to get chunks of yardage late in games. Week one, Jones hauled in a touchdown in the final two minutes against the Jets. Week two he scored a touchdown with nine seconds left in the game. There should be more garbage fantasy points available for Jones this week against the Patriots.

Mike Evans
Unlike fellow rookies Kelvin Benjamin and Sammy Watkins, Evans has yet to have his welcome to the league game. Offensively the Buccaneers passing game has sputtered the first two weeks as Josh McCown gets acclimated to a full-time starting role. This week a quick turn around against the Atlanta Falcons should get Evans rolling. Any uptick in the offense from the first two weeks should see a payoff for Evans and Vincent Jackson owners.

Terrance West
West continues to be devalued amongst fantasy football fanatics. Part of that has to do with the Cleveland Browns offense suffering so poorly in the preseason. In the first two games of the regular season though Brian Hoyer has shaken the cobwebs of the preseason and led the team to 27 points and 26 last week. Look for the Browns to continue to perform well against the Ravens this week.

Chris Ivory
Ivory could be a good flex option for you as a Monday Night football reward player. Ivory gets limited carries but is making the most of his attempts. On Monday against the Bears, you’d expect the Jets to try and pace the running game a bit more. Last week against the Packers they got off to a hot start but were unable to put the Packers away.

Josh McCown
The talent McCown displayed last year is there. He has been primarily a backup his entire career and is in an odd situation in Tampa Bay. Facing the Atlanta Falcons suspect defense should finally open the door for McCown to shine. Last year current backup, Glennon, had two field days against the Falcons. Look for Bobby Rainey to establish the run and get McCown rolling in the passing game.

POST WEEK TWO WAIVER WIRE

Monday, 15 September, 2014

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Week two injuries have caused euphoria of panic in the fantasy football world. I can’t recall a week in the last five years that saw as many noteworthy injuries. Countless fantasy football teams were left with a big fat zero points wise from their injured player. Luckily for some the injuries are not extreme, for others it’s time to make quick moves via the waiver wire.

Kirk Cousins
There is no doubt that Cousins will be the hottest fantasy football commodity as a waiver wire pickup this week. He has shown in the past to be a fantasy football viable starter in other starts via RG3 injury. How will the offensive playbook change effect Cousins on field performance? Against the weak Jaguars defense it was a non issue, but it may lurk in the upcoming weeks.

Khiry Robinson
The Saints lost another road game and in it Mark Ingram for four weeks to a hand injury. It comes at the wrong time for Ingram as he was seeing a nice resurgence to his overall career and fantasy contributions. Robinson and Pierre Thomas should see a considerable amount of looks now in one of the best fantasy football offenses.

Knile Davis
Jamaal Charles fantasy owners have already had it after the first two weeks of the NFL season. For some you may still have the opportunity to try and pick up Davis. Others that are out of luck may want to try and pry Davis via a trade. Charles has had enough ticky tack injuries already, to be on the lookout for a long term injury.

Niles Paul
Leave no doubt about it the Redskins are going to throw the football. With DeSean Jackson injured Sunday, Paul and former Cardinal Andre Roberts step up without a problem against the Jaguars secondary. We will have to see how long Jackson will be out to boost Paul for short term or long term consideration. Pierre Garcon will not be shut down like he was this week.

Bobby Rainey
Rainey showcased he can be a feature back last season for the Buccaneers and had a fine day yesterday in a loss to the Rams. With Doug Martin hurt once again one has to question if he’ll ever come near to the form he was a few seasons ago. It’s highly unlikely, making Rainey a huge pickup if available.

Donald Brown
With Ryan Matthews out a little over a month the Chargers will lean on Brown and Danny Woodhead. Brown’s been in spot starts before in Indianapolis but never could be that first round worthy talent the Colts drafted him at. Will see what Brown can do this time around.

Others: Delanie Walker, Steve Smith Sr, Allen Robinson, Larry Donnell, Brian Quick

HANDICAPPING: DON’T OUTSMART THE ODDSMAKERS

Friday, 12 September, 2014

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One of the biggest mistakes people make in handicapping a number in the NFL is believing they have a stronger opinion than oddsmakers. Some people write their own lines and if they see a three to four point spread differential from their line to the oddsmakers they believe they’re line is stronger. On the contrary, when this happens you should think again and likely X the game out or play the other side.

One of the worst mistakes you can make is believing you can outsmart oddsmakers. Las Vegas sportsbooks monitor each other and even view offshore lines to gauge the pricing market. The number is put out there to get value on both sides, not to land one-sided money.

The only sport I’ve seen lines be completely off on a regular basis is in college basketball. It’s a tough sport to predict even for oddsmakers early on in a season with transfers, travel, and incoming recruits.

This week there are a lot of high point spreads out there in the NFL. Don’t get caught in the hoopla of underdogs covering at a strong rate last week. That was last week, and the market was tighter from a point spread stand point as well. Pick your spots and find proper value according to what the oddsmakers have set.

NCAA FOOTBALL COLLEGE FREE PLAY IN WAKE FOREST VS UTAH STATE

Friday, 12 September, 2014

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Watch this week’s free play between Wake Forest and Utah State. I’m 6-3 on the year in college football and 3-0 in the NFL. View premium play offerings under today’s picks. I have three for college Saturday and four for NFL Sunday.

Untitled from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.

Tier Two: Week Two Fantasy Football Best Matchups

Wednesday, 10 September, 2014

Tier Two: Week Two Fantasy Football Best Matchups

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It’d be great if you could count on your top three to four picks every week to hand you a win. It doesn’t work that way on the field in the NFL and certainly doesn’t in fantasy football. You need strong efforts from your tier two and sometimes even tier three athletes. Zack Cimini takes a look at tier two players this week that should pay dividends for your team.

Quarterbacks

RG3
I was glad to see that the media did not blame the Redskins week one loss solely on RG3. In the past that may have been warranted. But for the most part the Redskins loss the game against the Texans with team mistakes. Special teams allowed a blocked punt for a touchdown before half, and the team had two costly red zone turnovers. Houston’s defense is much improved and got after RG3 all day. This week should be a much better match up for the Redskins against the Jaguars. I’d expect the Redskins to score three to four touchdowns and for RG3 to have a nice day through the air.

Carson Palmer
Boy oh boy it looks like that magic wand to snap the Giants back to a playoff contender has officially snapped. New York use to be one of those teams people could just wait for that win streak to appear with. Times have changed for the Giants and the Cardinals will look to go 2-0. Arizona might have better offensive balance especially at the receiver position than Detroit. Besides MegaTron the Lions are still working in the rest of their talent. Meanwhile Arizona is stacked with Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd. Expect Carson to be able to gun the ball all over the field with little pressure in his face.

Other Quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

Shonn Greene
This is a great week for fantasy owners to insert Greene as their flex running back. The Titans offense clicked in week one against an undermanned Chiefs defense. It’ll be interesting to see if week one was a true progression for this team or just one week. Greene knows his job is soon to be Bishop Sankey’s, but Sankey has done nothing to position himself as the top back in this dual backfield. We all saw how Carlos Hyde and Frank Gore paired to trample the Cowboys defense. Look for the Titans to mimic that recipe with Greene.

Carlos Hyde
It looks like the 49ers have once again discovered a gem by accident. Two years ago they caught a break when Kaepernick started because Alex Smith was injured. The team did not look back. This time they drafted Hyde to eventually replace Gore, who is in the final year of his contract. Dallas’s defense is always shaky but another team that has had a hard time stopping the run are the Chicago Bears. Look for Hyde to keep rewarding fantasy owners that drafted him late in rounds.

Others: Toby Gerhart, and Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

Eric Decker
You could tell the Jets offense had a bit more synergy than any game witnessed a year ago. Eric Decker was one of the key names brought in to bring life to an ailing team at receiver. Decker’s not going to have an all world season like he did with Peyton Manning but he should shine as an underrated fantasy guy all year. Insert him in week two.

Torrey Smith
When inserting three starting wide receivers sometimes you just have to look for yardage value over touchdown possibilities. Smith is one of those guys this week that falls into the yardage category. He has always been a solid performer against the Steelers and I don’t see that changing this week. The Steelers showed last week that they still have huge holes in the secondary against a depleted receiving group of the Browns.

Others: DeAndre Hopkins and Marques Colston

Translating Fantasy Football to Sports Handicapping

Wednesday, 10 September, 2014

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My background in fantasy sports trumps my sports handicapping experience by a handful of years. I’m from the old school of fantasy fanatics that use to crunch their own league numbers and standings. No online software, it was all done with the sports page and a TI-84 calculator to punch in box score stats.

There is an obvious correlation in fantasy sports and sports handicapping. I’m not a trends guy when it comes to all the crazy different scenarios some handicappers can come up with. The type of trends I use for sports handicapping come from individual performances over the years. That’s where the world of fantasy football brings a charm to point spreads and teams.

This week I have the Carolina Panthers as my correlated team for a sports handicapping and fantasy football metrics breakdown.

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Here are three reasons why I believe there is more value on Detroit’s side this week than Carolina’s.

Rookie Wide Receivers tend to struggle with consistency
The Carolina Panthers surely have found a great rookie in Kelvin Benjamin. But one thing that never fails with rookie wideouts is struggling with consistency. After a very impressive week one you’d have to expect a decline from Benjamin. You’d have to go back to 2012 to find a receiver that has made an impact each and every week, and that is Alshon Jeffrey of the Bears. It took Jeffrey until his second season to achieve such status. Even AJ Green in 2011 struggled with consistency on his way to a 1000 yard season. Benjamin likely won’t be a bust or a downgrade position starter like Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, Titus Young(out of the league), AJ Jenkins(On his way out of the league), Stephen Hill(Unsigned), Justin Blackmon, etc, but he is going to struggle just like everyone else.

Cam Newton’s return from injury
For a quarterback to be held out of week one and then be declared a go on Tuesday just doesn’t add up. If a team feels confident to name Newton a starter 48 hours later something tells you they may be rushing him back. Most teams would have left speculation in the air until Friday or Saturday. It’s the rust of Newton that worries me even more this week for his return. Can he deliver crisp throws to all new wide receivers in Jerricho Cotchery, Benjamin, and Jason Avant? Limited practice reps and on field play leave tremendous doubt this week facing a confident Lions team. That and Newton’s bonus dimension is his scrambling ability. Can he absorb crushing hits to his big frame without grimacing, or will the Panthers scale his carries back completely?

DeAngelo Williams Track Record
I’ve hammered the wide receiver and quarterback position for the Panthers and last but not least is the running back position. DeAngelo Williams. Carolina has had the same dual back system for years with Williams/Stewart and bowling ball Mike Tolbert. All of these guys may not even be true backup running backs around the league. But Carolina keeps their system intact because of Newton’s all around athletic abilities. Williams 72 yards on five yards a carry last week against the Bucs look fantastic on paper. But it’s just the 11th time since 2011 (49 Games) that Williams has cracked over 70 yards rushing.

This game is setting up to put too much pressure on the Carolina Panthers defense. Last year the Panthers lost three of their first four games because the defense couldn’t hold up with their struggling offense. Last week the defense almost collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. They gave up two touchdowns when the Bucs decided to run a hurry up offense with McCown under center. That’s Stafford’s bread and butter. I find it hard to believe Carolina will be able to stifle a Detroit Lions team that has weapons all over the place. The value here is on the Detroit Lions.