Fantasy Football

Week Two: Sit Em’

Thursday, 13 September, 2012

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Get use to the early line ups for Thursday Night Football. Before you hit that update to your fantasy starting roster make sure to pay attention to this weeks sit em’ players. Don’t get caught glancing at your stat tracker and doing a double take. Yes it’s the fourth quarter and it’s not a system glitch that you are starting at five points from your starting wide receiver. Follow recommendations and sit the following players for week two.

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler
Cutler is one of those home run or out quarterbacks in the NFL. He has to have things rolling in his favor to have momentum and sustain it for an entire game. Last week he was able to shake off an early pick six and have a stellar game. That is very unusual for Cutler. Maybe this is a breakout career year for Cutler now that he has proper talent surrounding him. I’m not buying it yet. He has been in the NFL too long and become predictable with his play. A quick turn around against a hungry division rival spells turnover trouble for Cutler.

Matt Schaub
The Houston Texans are one of the teams that are going to consistently run over passing the football. Certain teams may bounce around on a week to week basis with their game plan, Houston won’t. Schaub may have been rated a bit high this year for a fantasy quarterback. He is a suitable backup but numbers you would of expected a few years ago are not going to reappear. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are going to keep getting forced fed the football, and take away plenty of opportunities for Schaub touchdown passes. This week against Jacksonville figures to be a game where both teams establish the run for four full quarters. Possessions will be minimized and chances for a breakout game for Schaub is below thirty percent.

Russell Wilson
Chances that anyone flipped their DirecTV package to catch any of the Cardinals vs. Seahawks is like having a double sided coin. The tease was there but it the remote control only kept flipping to the 49ers vs. Green Bay and Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay. Wilson looked caught in the spotlight and struggled mightily against pressure. Bob Ryan is sure to add several blitzes to get the unprepared Wilson caught off guard for the second consecutive week.

Carson Palmer
What in the world happened to Palmer’s arm? He threw more Chad Pennington/Matt Leinart check down throws to Darren McFadden than anyone could of imagined. The offensive game plan vs. the San Diego Chargers seemed non existent. Maybe the offense turned to simplistic throws to cut down on Palmer’s erratic interceptions. Whatever the case, Palmer is on near waiver wire drop consideration with another poor week.

Running Backs

Michael Turner
Big power backs longevity just keeps dwindling. Turner was hardly used as a San Diego Charger, but those days were paired with Ladanian Tomlinson. Tomlinson may have just retired but those years paired together seem like ages ago. With Atlanta’s talented receiving depth and Matt Ryan ready to step up, the Falcons are going to shift to a new identity. One that turns Michael Turner into a lower tier fantasy running back second starter.

Stevan Ridley
Ridley had quite a week one to make the owners that drafted him give the early “I told you so”. Hold the gun on that call. Ridley may have his impressive weeks ahead of him, but a Patriots running back is far from being a sure thing. Arizona has a solid defense that will be up for the test on limiting Ridley from a follow up performance.

Kevin Smith
San Francisco’s defense is going to be one of those defenses that it’s going to take an impressive effort to get over 100 yards on them. It’ll be even harder than last year. Smith keeps reappearing as the lead back in Detroit by default. By midseason he likely will not even be the feature back. Last week Smith gave fantasy owners decent tricky points for those that risked starting him. This is the week where you can boot yourself in the back for drafting poorly at the running back position. If you’re stuck starting Smith, you better hope the Lions find there way down to the one yard line. Even than it may be just a tease. A fourth and goal plunge that falls short.

Maurice Jones Drew
This is the week where the true football shape of Jones Drew will be tested. He came into the fold right before week one, and was used more than expected vs. the Vikings. Overall his week one performance had to be evaluated as an exceeds. Expect a fallback this week though. Jones Drew isn’t a young back and his body was pushed physically against the Vikings. A layoff is a layoff no matter what profession. You can’t get back into the field and have an immediate consistent high impact.

Wide Receivers

Wes Welker
I probably rated Wes Welker lower than anyone had him listed overall at wide receiver. The Patriots went from having Welker and nobody around him to now two premier tight ends and Brandon Lloyd. A decline was inevitable. The stalemate of contract talks between the organization and Welker were valid. Teams would rather have the tight end beat them than chunks of yards over and over again by Welker. The Patriots will run the football more this year because of their short route passing game being taken away a tad. Welker is still a valuable receiver but not as high as people anticipated.

Marcus Colston
This may be the year Brees stats decline and it will not be because of his passing skills. His receivers were boosted over the years because of Brees himself. Colston has shined as a 7th round pick over the years, but was a questionable number one receiver even at his prime. Injuries have began to hinder his performance, and on most teams he would not be a number one receiver right now. Brees frustration will begin to show, as his group of receivers is not the quality you’d expect. Sit Colston this week.

Stephen Hill
What Pittsburgh does frequently to teams better than most is take away a favorable option. Hill was that week one. It was his first game as an NFL player and he caught the Bills off guard. You can believe the Steelers will not allow Hill to be the main threat in the Jets passing attack. Hill is to unpolished of a receiver to excel consistently as a rookie.

Stevie Johnson
This may be a shocker to some, as the Bills do not have many options to throw to besides Johnson. There are just times when a quarterback gets shaken so much, that even facing a defense that will give up yards does not matter. Ryan Fitzpatrick heard all summer that he needs to protect the football better. Week one he had a horrible performance in which he lost David Nelson and Fred Jackson. Two guys he counted on tremendously last year along with Johnson. Now Fitzpatrick has to make NFL throws to unknown receivers and Johnson who will definitely be blanketed all day.

Thursday Matchup: Chicago vs. Green Bay

Wednesday, 12 September, 2012

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Thursday games in the NFL and a college game on ESPN every week is going to make for an inspiring part of the week for those trying to make it to the weekend. These prime matchups in the NFL are just as important to any fantasy roster as the games are on Sunday and Monday.

Taking your time to project your fantasy starters and best options for points needs to start sooner now. The temporary end of the season weeks where most of the Thursday games on were filled with poor teams and non fantasy impact players is gone. Just how you can be beat at the tail end of the week with Monday Night Football’s matchup, the same results can happen on Thursdays.

Tony Romo, Kevin Ogletree, and DeMarco Murray showcased that just a week ago. The matchup with the Bears and Packers should offer more of the same.

For a Packers team that has been known as a lethal offensive machine over the last four years, Chicago has been one of the few teams to consistently give Rodgers fits. Last year the Bears were owned in both games, but in years 2009 and 2010 the defense held their own against the high powered Packers offense. In 2010, offensive scoring by the Packers in the regular season was a game with 17 points and another with ten. When meeting again in the NFC Championship, the Packers scored 21 and ended up winning the Super Bowl.

With a shortened week and the way both teams played week one, you’d have to expect the defenses to suffer more than the offenses. Chicago’s Brian Urlacher is gutting it out to play and likely will. The sore spot in the Bears defense remains in the secondary. Andrew Luck made some mistakes week one but he flung the football around nicely. Rodgers will have no problem finding his receivers and moving the football up and down the field on the Bears.

Greg Jennings is looking like a game time decision with a groin injury. Chances are he will likely sit, and the team will give him basically a bye weeks length to heal. The Packers are loaded and deep at receiver so that’s the best thing for them to do. For Jennings owners it’s not worth the risk inserting him in the lineup.

That boosts up players such as James Jones and Randall Cobb. With the Packers rushing woes likely not to improve overnight, it’s going to be a big day for the passing game. I do expect Cedric Benson to get more than nine carries, and likely closer to twenty as the Packers want to try to mix it up better and wear down the Bears defense. With Rodgers scrambling ability, don’t be surprised to see a patented bootleg bomb to Jordey Nelson or James Jones.

If you are a Cedric Benson owner and want the comfort ability of getting a range of ten to fourteen fantasy points he is worth the start. He has always been a hard runner and will get the opportunities to make up for his lackluster week one against a stifling 49ers defense. Remember Benson was an ex-Bear. He has only faced off against his former team once. In that performance he ran for a career high 189 yards in 2009. Motivation is always there for a player going against recognizable ex teammates and organization that parted ways with him.

Start all the key Packers even Benson, and emerging specialist Randall Cobb.

With the Chicago Bears an offensive outpour looked great week one. Jay Cutler has more comfort ability than any quarterback in the NFL. Brandon Marshall was his top wide out with Denver, and he still has Earl Bennett on key downs that he hits over and over again. Will this be a mirage? Cutler has had many a performances where he shines and then follows them up with head scratchers.

Prime time games have been his nemesis, and this has repeat Cutler written all over it. A week of shining through the air should not be a recipe weekly for the Bears. They have the running backs to beat teams up through the ground every week. Teams can lose their identity after a game like the Bears just had. In a young season I expect that to happen vs. the Packers. Especially with the Packers hungry to not dig themselves in an 0-2 hole.

It looks like a favorably matchup for a fantasy quarterback, but I advise to sit Cutler. He may throw for 270 yards and a few touchdowns, but the interceptions will be two or more. Most fantasy owners did not draft Cutler anyways as their starter, so it should not be a hard pressed decision for you.

Other fantasy worthy players to sit would include Mike Bush and Alshon Jeffrey. Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte are both in a class of their own in their respective positions, in the top five for fantasy purposes.

Analyzing the spread of 51.5 for the over and under. One would cling on the over automatically after the Bears week one and expected fire of Green Bay. I look for the Packers to enforce the ground game and milk the clock on drives. A contrarian view of predictability. The Packers know they can score quickly if needed but running up and down the field is not a successful game plan.

Running the clock and putting the pressure on the Bears to respond is. The longer Cutler analyzes and sits on the sideline the more anxious he will get. He is a quarterback that gets anxious to make the big plays and lets a handful of balls leave his hand that never should have. Take the Packers with the six point spread and the under of 51.5

AP’s Week One an Anomaly

Tuesday, 11 September, 2012

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The percentage of fantasy football owners that likely sat AP week one over starting him was likely sky high. Minnesota kept it under wraps until near kickoff that Adrian Peterson would start. Even hearing that Peterson would start, the idea of him getting a significant amount of carries seemed minimal. Maybe ten carries if he looked okay on his first few carries.

For a player coming off a major knee injury and having zero reps in preseason, the precaution red flags were up for fantasy owners. Minnesota had barely let the team tackle him in practice leading up to the week one game. Peterson had set a goal to make it out on the field by week one when he first got hurt, and it looked like the Vikings were giving him the start to feed his appetite and fulfill his goal.

Not only did Peterson boost his teams confidence with his presence, he was one of the top fantasy backs of the weekend. Rushing for over eighty yards with two touchdowns. He had a burst through the line and though he did not make too many sharp cuts that were use to seeing, he had enough straight ahead runs to show that he had a very dedicated recovery to get back out onto the field.

Dedication and how the body responds after his first football game are going to be two different things. Bodies have a hard enough time responding to a football game when healthy. Now will see how the knee responds in week two and beyond. Many NFL players have said it takes a full two years to come back 100 percent from tearing up their knee.

A great deal of Peterson’s week one success likely could be attributed to adrenaline and his first appearance on the football field. That is going to go away sooner than later, as adrenaline can’t fuel the body alone. It’s hard to put Adrian Peterson on a fantasy wonder performance but week one may have been just that. Short yardage plunge touchdowns are one thing, but the amount of carries and impact in every down situations is going to be an up and down battle.

For most of the game Jacksonville had kept Peterson’s yards in check, until the fourth quarter and overtime was when Peterson started getting some longer runs.

So was week one a mirage from Peterson? I believe a fall off will occur with him over the next few games to a month. An athlete just cannot turn it on suddenly with minimal practice and a full nine months off the football field. Peterson is a freak athlete but even his body is going to go through the agony of pushing his knee to certain levels throughout the season.

Minnesota will likely tone down his practicing throughout the year, as he will need to continue to be monitored. Peterson is a tier one fantasy back from the standpoint that he will be a “Leroy Hoard” for touchdowns. Games of 130 yards or more that have been typical from Peterson just are not going to happen this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Peterson have more games with sixty to seventy yards rushing than he does of games over 130 yards.

Waiver Wire Post Week One

Tuesday, 11 September, 2012

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So you lost week one in your high stakes auction or fantasy league. Your buddies are getting on you and it has you in the mindset that you can’t go 0-2. After all the smack talk after your draft you’re in need of a jolt to sidestep being the message board tagged “it”. The bogus trade offers are pouring in to try to sway you in over reacting on week one.

Do not do that, but take a look at the bottom of your roster and look at the buried depth you can dump. There were plenty of week one performers that can help you out immediately and in the long run of the 2012 fantasy season.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco-
What has been holding back Joe Flacco over the years has been the Ravens play calling. When called upon Flacco has shown the arm and capabilities of leading the team. The conservative passing game days are done in Baltimore. They’re going to run the no huddle and keep teams off balance with the air attack. Before big plays from Flacco would come off dump passes to Ray Rice, or the occasional bomb to Torrey Smith. It’s going to be a good mix from here on out. Flacco is a borderline fantasy starter with this new offense, and will help teams that are in need of an upgrade at quarterback.

Alex Smith-
There are a few differences with the 49ers that will make Smith a fantasy backup. Frank Gore has been one of the most warn down backs based on carries over the years. He has not necessarily been healthy either. Smith has developed a strong connection with Vernon Davis that is one of the top five quarterback to tight end connections in the league. Randy Moss may be quiet in front of the media, but the 49ers signed him to be a threat. Whether that’s a decoy to free up Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham, or getting past the defense as he did in week one. Smith will have sneaky stats all year long with a receiver corp much better than the names of Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards, and Joshua Morgan

Blaine Gabbert-
Gabbert led a poised drive to get the Jaguars ahead late in the fourth quarter but was never able to get the ball back in his hands. Minnesota drove and tied the game and ended it with a field goal in overtime. If not for that many people would have been praising the efforts of Gabbert on the road. He threw almost forty times and did not make a mistake with interceptions. He did that with a cast of receivers many would rank near the bottom of the league.

Running Backs

CJ Spiller-
Spiller was profiled in our one week wonders based on the fact that his game against the Jets will likely be his season high. With Fred Jackson dinged up for awhile, Spiller is going to see an obvious boost of a role. A high value for PPR leagues as he is going to get more plays on the field and become the safety net Fitzpatrick had with Jackson. Spiller may see a load share with Tashard Choice, but should get twelve to fifteen carries for the next month.

Alfred Morris-
It’s not a shock to see Mike Shanahan use a rookie drafted late. The Redskins pounded away with Morris whose yards per carry was not high, but made an impact with each run. It’ll be interesting to see if Shanahan stays with Morris for a great length of the season. For now though you can’t argue with the amount of carries he will receive.

Kendall Hunter-
Before last season Frank Gore had not played a full season since his second year in the NFL. Not many running backs can stay healthy the way Gore runs. San Francisco has an offensive line made to run the football and wear down opposing teams. The balance of the pass and run will be one of the best in the NFL this year, and may be the difference in the 49ers making it to the Super Bowl. This is a two back NFL league now, and Hunter is a top seven backup.

Wide Receivers

Alshon Jeffrey-
People are shocked that the Bears lit up the scoreboard mainly through a dynamic passing game led by Jay Cutler. The Bears have always thrown the football, it’s just now they have the talent to make plays. Instead of seeing Cutler throw a bomb that lands on the grass, chances are higher for completions with big targets Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall.

Coby Fleener-
Familiarity is always a good thing for a rookie, and Luck has that with Fleener. Based on the catches of Reggie Wayne you can say the same for them. Fleener has a knack for getting open and knowing how to shield himself from the defender and be ready for a Luck pass. It’ll take a few games for us to know how the Colts red zone offense will be, but Fleener has the best shot at being Luck’s main target down there.

Andre Roberts
There are only about a dozen teams where a third receiver on a team is fantasy worthy. Roberts may be listed as the Cardinals third receiver, but he is more a part of the Cardinals offense than rookie Michael Floyd. Both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton look for Roberts frequently, and Roberts has responded well. He is more of a Davone Bess type that is not going to break any long gains, but he may end up with a high quality amount of touchdowns. Arizona is not known for their tight ends, and that’s only going to benefit a possession receiver such as Roberts.

Randall Cobb-
Donald Driver may have returned for a last hooray, but much like Hines Ward last year the Packers are going to go with the youngsters. Cobb and James Jones are going to be in the fray of things along with regular starters Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings. The special abilities of Cobb make him more intriguing for the Packers to involve more, and is why he should be for fantasy owners.

Brandon Lafell-
Carolina may have a great set of running backs at their disposal, but their bread and butter is going to be with the legs and arm of Cam Newton. Steve Smith has done it for quite awhile but defenses are not going to allow Smith to thrash them game after game like they did a year ago. No team was prepared for Newton’s excellence through the air. Now they are, and Lafell is going to be a receiver that can up his value based upon the extra eyes hoarding Smith. Lafell has been a Panther that has fought to get to his level on the team, and seems prepared to have his best year yet.

Donald Jones-
With David Nelson lost for the year, Jones gets to fill his shoes. Based on Buffalo’s defensive collapse for four quarters against the Jets, they may be down plenty of games this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a hot/cold quarterback but when he is on he can be a top ten fantasy quarterback.

Andrew Hawkins-
Getting out in the open field with speed still sets yourself apart even in the NFL. Speedsters can make a living besides on special teams, and Hawkins showcased that on Monday Night Football. A young quarterback needs a hot route receiver he can gun the ball too for short yardage plays that can turn into big ones. Hawkins looks like he is going to be a fine replacement for Jerome Simpson.

Sidney Rice-
Rice’s stats and Russell Wilson’s debut were not mind blowing at all. Rice for the first time in a regular season game though looked like he had some of his old self back on display. He made some tough catches for his rookie quarterback. Based on Wilson barely eclipsing over 100 yards, the more comfortable he gets the bigger upside for Rice. Rice is worth a waiver wire scoop now before that big game comes.

Handicapping: Double Header MNF Divisional Games

Monday, 10 September, 2012

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San Diego at Oakland -1 Over/Under 46.5

Last season was a roller coaster game for both of these teams. Oakland went through the death of their long time owner Al Davis. After it occurred the team traded away first round picks for Carson Palmer. A puzzling move by former head coach Hugh Jackson. San Diego on the other hand witnessed their perennial Pro Bowl quarterback, Philip Rivers, have his worst season as a Pro.

Both of these teams had no problem lighting up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. The defenses had a hard time stopping opposing teams, therefore Palmer/Rivers were gunning the ball each drive. That’s the norm for some teams in the league, but the accelerated hike in turnovers is not. Philip Rivers will be without running back Ryan Matthews and lost running back Mike Tolbert and wide receiver Vincent Jackson to free agency. He still has Malcolm Floyd and pro bowl tight end Antonio Gates.

The problem is going to come at reliability at running the football. Ronnie Brown’s on his last days, and the Chargers will be forced into using a platoon of backs.

With a raucous Raider crowd, and pressure on Rivers arm, expect the edge to go to the Raiders in this one. The over/under is one to stay away from but I think it’ll miss the barrier of going over by a few points.

Cincinnati at Baltimore -7 Over/Under 41.5

This is a game where the over on points look much more friendlier. The identity of these teams seems to be a little unknown to lines makers. I expect the Ravens to switch their offensive philosophy just enough to give Joe Flacco more attempts down the field. He has the receivers and showed last year that he can deliver big throws in clutch situations. Now is the year where the Ravens hand the control more over to Flacco than the constant Ray Rice show.

A weakness in the Ravens defense continues to be the secondary. Therefore any shot at moving the football is going to have to come through the air, especially if the Bengals want to keep up in this one. Jermaine Gresham is quietly emerging as one of the most difficult young tight ends to cover in football. He’ll pose big problems in this one. Dalton also has one of the top receivers in the game in AJ Green.

Ray Lewis is an inspirational leader, and the honor of this game will belong to Art Modell. Lewis was drafted the same year the team moved to Baltimore so he has an emotional tie to the Modell move, and how it affected him. Plus he held Modell in high regards as did most people around him.

Last season to open week one the Ravens stomped the Steelers 35-7. This team truly believes they should have been to the Super Bowl a year ago, and they’ll come out and play that way Monday Night. Grab the Ravens -7 and the over in this one. Dalton will keep the Bengals in the game, but once the second half begins I believe the adjustments by the Ravens will be the difference. Dalton will make that extra error inside the red zone that proves costly.

Week One Wonders

Monday, 10 September, 2012

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Tuesday will feature the waiver wire pickups post week one. Before the dash to click the add/drop button in your league there are a few things to consider. And no, waiver wire priority order is not one of them. Pick your spots before being one of those fantasy managers that is enamored with the waiver wire every week. Here are this weeks one week wonders.

Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin III- His dazzling week one performance is going to be attached to his career for quite awhile. Credit Mike Shanahan for fantastic play calls. He called specific options or run plays for Griffin that the defense seemed unprepared for. Game tape is always a young quarterbacks worst nightmare. Griffin will keep having solid games, but one without turnovers consistently will be hard to imagine. Worthy of a waiver pickup if he is out there, but do not expect to start him for at least another month.

Mark Sanchez- The Jets went from incapable of scoring a touchdown in the preseason to lighting up the Buffalo Bills. Sanchez and the offense seemed in the flow of things, and Buffalo gave them whatever they wanted. The performance of the Jets offense is not typical of a Rex Ryan coached team and will not continue. Turnovers led to a good portion of Jets points which they were able to capitalize off of.

Kevin Kolb- Kolb came in for one drive after John Skelton went down to an apparent gruesome injury. With teammates seemingly looking affected by the injury, Kolb was unflustered. He came in and looked prepared and ready to seize command of the game. He did just that, shaken off Whisenhunt running onto the field for a timeout, and throwing the game winning touchdown. Skelton’s injury looks like a season ending, and Kolb will have the duties for the year if so. With Kolb though he is the type of quarterback that just can’t put four quarters together.

Russell Wilson- I’ll add Wilson to this list based on hype. He was favored on the road against Arizona based on his preseason performance. A condensed NFL preseason experience is not going to mean a great career or regular season. Wilson seemed bothered by pressure, falling backward in the pocket at times. It does not look like Pete Carroll will expect Wilson to do more than be a game manager for a length of time.

Running Backs

CJ Spiller- Whenever an injury occurs to a top twelve fantasy back, immediate action is to pickup the next guy. Especially one that ran wild as Spiller did with 156 yards. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to be shaky with his arm, defenses are going to drill in on the ground game. Spiller is not a heavy work load back, which means he has to make the most out of twelve to fifteen carries.

Alfred Morris- The young back ran his heart out and demonstrated why Mike Shanahan wants to have him as their main back. He falls forward and carries defenders on his back. That’s the problem with Morris as he does not seem to have the ability to make a cut and give an extra burst. Shanahan is not afraid to use his full roster of running backs throughout the season. If RG3 is going to continue to have success he is going to need a back to average better than 3.8 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers

Kevin Ogletree- Ogletree will likely still be a solid contributor for the Cowboys, but week one will by far be his best game of the season. Tony Romo even stated he had become use to Ogletree with Witten and Austin out in training camp. He had eleven targets from Romo, which can’t be a weekly occurrence for someone that will be the teams fourth option.

Mike Williams- Williams has seemed to turn into a tier three tight end of sorts. A red zone specialist and that’s it. All other parts of the football game he just can’t be a factor. Since his rookie year in 2010, Williams has dropped off the radar considerably. A touchdown here and there is not going to cut it.

Stephen Hill- Of Mark Sanchez’s three touchdowns two went to Stephen Hill. Hill has outplayed veteran Chaz Schilens for roster depth, and appears to have developed the Plaxico Burress threat they are looking for. A big target that can haul in deep balls, Hill will be a factor in certain instances. Besides being a big play threat, Hill is going to have a tough time being a consistent every down threat. He is still learning the nuances of the game and developing at the receiver position.

Cecil Shorts- Even with Jacksonville likely to have an increased passing attack with the maturation of Gabbert, their receivers having a fantasy impact are going to be minimal. Marcedes Lewis and Justin Blackmon should be the only two Jaguar targets on your fantasy roster. Laurent Robinson has struggled since becoming a Jaguar but between him and Shorts, they’ll offset between decent fantasy noticeable games.