Fantasy Football

Week Three Sit Em

Thursday, 20 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @Cimini

Quarterbacks

Blaine Gabbert
After a preseason in which Gabbert showed promising signs he has had a mixed start in the first two games of the year. This year he will grow, but it’s going to take the course of the season for that to happen. That means his fantasy relevance likely will not occur until the last five to six games of the season.

Mike Vick
Those waiting for Vick to break out of his mini slump and explode on the Sunday fantasy stat tracker are going to have to wait another week. The Cardinals are right up there in the NFL for the way they like to attack defensively. They’re prepared every week, and they’ll cause havoc for Mike Vick.

Tony Romo
How do Tony Romo and the Cowboys usually follow up a disappointing loss? Based on the past seasons you could anticipate a home let down this week. Romo typically is one of those quarterbacks that stats are easy to fill. After Tampa Bay let the Giants pile up yardage, I expect them to have a tougher mentality defensively.

Mark Sanchez
It’ll be hard to find the handful of games that Sanchez will be a relevant fantasy contributor. Miami has some newfound confidence as a team after destroying the Oakland Raiders. The Jets and Dolphins have a history of playing tight close games. This one will be no different. Sanchez will have in the low 200 yard passing range with one touchdown

Running Backs

Chris Johnson
Johnson has been what you could label as “The fantasy bust of the year” thus far. It’s a long season but the Titans offensive line does not look as if they’re going to help him out too much. The good news is the Titans have abandoned the running game early in their first two games, so when Johnson’s big game comes he may get near 30 carries. Detroit’s stout defensive front will make that a tough option week three.

Jamaal Charles
Kansas City is doing the right thing with how they’re bringing along Charles after his serious injury a year ago. With that being said, the Chiefs offense has been woeful. They did not score a touchdown against the Bills until they were down 35-3. The offense is just not in sync. Maybe Todd Haley was right wanting to bench Cassel during his tenure as head coach.

Marshawn Lynch
The game is coming where Lynch is going to truly have to do it on his own to get any type of yards. Luckily for the Seahawks they jumped out to a 10-0 lead thanks to special teams against the Cowboys. Facing Green Bay is going to be a tougher challenge. The Packers are at home and have not had the fluid offense we have come to expect. They’ll have a full ten days in between their Thursday game against Chicago and Monday’s against Seattle. They’ll be ready to force Wilson into bad decisions and halt Lynch.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Donnie Avery-
Sometimes when an athlete sees a certain team on the schedule they just know they’re in for a great game. That is the case with Reggie Wayne. Last year was an off year as a whole for the Colts. Ignoring that year, Wayne has wreaked havoc on the Jagaurs secondary. In 2010, he had well over 200 yards receiving in the two combined games, and in 2009 over 300 yards, as well as in 2008 and 2007. The chances for Avery having a big game with Wayne may have happened with Peyton but not with Luck.

Danny Amendola-
Lovie Smith and the Bears do a solid job weekly at attempting to limit your strengths. They’re one of the few teams that limits the Packers offensively each outing. St. Louis has never been a monster offensive team but last week they racked up a great game led by Sam Bradford versus Washington. Amendola had a career day and caught the eyes of many. The law of averages and a great Bears game plan will limit him to under five catches.

Tony Gonzalez
Gonzalez’s stats have grown as Matt Ryan’s comfort and adaptation to NFL speed has adjusted as well. Gonzalez resurgence can be traced solely to his unwavering work ethic. The first two games of this year he has not disappointed either. Father time is ticking though for Gonzalez and you have to wonder if the rigorous nature of the football season will get to him this year. Gonzalez is on the tail end of age 36 and will be 37 in February. Travel usually hampers even young athletes. The shortened week and far trip to San Diego will lead to a down week for Gonzalez. Expect around forty yards receiving without a touchdown.

Post Week Two Waiver Wire

Tuesday, 18 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @Cimini

Has the fat lady begun singing for your fantasy team(s)? Did you over indulge in drafts with your buddies and plan on exiting by dodging logging in to a certain league? That’s not the way to participate in a fantasy league. Fight every week by making the proper moves via the waiver wire and necessary roster adjustments. Here is a look at week two’s waiver wire pickups.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco-
Flacco is dazzling to start the year. Even in a loss he outdid Mike Vick by a large margin, and had a touchdown called back on an offensive pass interference that shouldn’t have been. I listed Flacco as the top breakout quarterback performer this year, and still believe he will continue to perform strongly. He has the faith of his organization that has finally translated into pass play calls. With the weapons around him and his increased confidence Flacco may be on his way to the Pro Bowl.

Sam Bradford
Last year Bradford looked like he might be headed for doom with constant injuries. The change to head coach Jeff Fisher seems to be what the doctor ordered. He has his health back and the team seems to be responding much better with the overall change. Remember just a few years ago Bradford had the Rams in a battle to almost get the last spot in the playoffs over Seattle. Seattle snuck in and made history by defeating the Saints, but it’s not a far stretch to see Bradford resurge and turn things back around.

Andy Dalton
By no means is Dalton to be considered a fantasy starting quarterback. He has a ways to go to get there, and the offense the Bengals run will likely prevent him from being a major fantasy threat. His strengths are with his accuracy, and natural chemistry with his team of receivers. By next year Dalton will be beyond a sleeper for many draftees to think about as their signal caller.

Alex Smith
Smith was on the list last week but comes back on as he is available in 50% of Yahoo leagues. The flash isn’t there but the consistency is. San Francisco seems more balanced than ever offensively, at a time when Alex Smith just is not making mistakes. It’s as if this team knows there going to be right back where they were in the NFC Championship game in January.

Ryan Tannehill
As the season stretches Tannehill may be right behind RG3 and Andrew Luck for rookie quarterbacks in terms of fantasy numbers. Russ Wilson’s impact in Seattle’s offense is going to remain on a small scale. As the team will rely on their defense and Marshawn Lynch each and every week. Tannehill just seems unrattled by whatever occurs on the football field. With the backfield weapons he has, Tannehill will be able to mature on the field and grow properly as a quarterback. His advantage for fantasy points comes with his legs as he has the capability to stretch out plays.

Running Backs

Mike Goodson-
If you’re in a PPR league Goodson has value right now. Most of the minimal owners that own Goodson are just handcuffing Darren McFadden. With the issues the Raiders are having at receiver, Carson Palmer has checked down to his running backs plenty of times in the first two games. The bonus with Goodson will be if McFadden misses anytime like he has his entire career.

Andre Brown-
Brown did a solid job filling in for the injured Ahmad Bradshaw against the Buccaneers. Who didn’t have a great fantasy day for the Giants? Brandon Jacobs had fantasy value that tapered off as his seasons dwindled with the Giants. With the Giants limiting the carries of David Wilson after his early season fumble, Brown is the guy until reassuring news unfolds for Bradshaw.

Vick Ballard-
In the Colts old coaching regime, Donald Brown had fallen on thin ice based on performance. Delone Carter was drafted and had a chance to take over Brown’s job. Now he is the one that is not in good view with the Colts coaching staff. Brown had a decent preseason but has had two poor outings to start the regular season. One more poor game and Ballard may start to get closer to the ten carry mark and turn the backfield more into an even share.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola-
There won’t be a player hotter than Amendola trying to be snared in half the leagues that he is currently available in. No one knew who would rise in the Rams receiving group, or if anyone would even be fantasy worthy. Two games in and Amendola has had a start that would make Larry Fitzgerald owners jealous. He did fumble against the Redskins that led to a defensive touchdown, but his play more than made up for that and led to the Rams gaining a victory.

Brian Hartline-
The past two years the Miami receiver that had the highest value was Brandon Marshall. With him gone everyone expected Davone Bess to continue to rise for the Dolphins. Tannehill had different thoughts, and his main target after two weeks is Brian Hartline. A big game with minimal catches is a fluke, but one with nine catches is not. Tannehill is looking his way often and will continue to do so.

Martellus Bennett
How did the Cowboys not implement Bennett all those years? Eli is obviously coming off a prolific passing day, but Bennett is a new found weapon for Eli. His size and ability to get down field have just added another deep threat weapon for the Giants passing attack. At this point if you drafted a tight end after the big five, you may want to make a change and snag Bennett.

Robert Meachem
Meachem went without a catch week two and some of you are likely puzzled on how he is on the waiver wire report. For whatever reason Rivers just has not looked his way yet. An NFL season is long though and there are still fourteen games. Rivers is likely going to be in the top ten in pass attempts this year and you have to figure Meachem will be involved sooner or later. With him being available in 25% of leagues and probably more after his week two performance, it’s a gamble worth taking for a receiver in a high impact offense.

Handicapping Broncos vs. Falcons

Monday, 17 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @Cimini

One thing the NFL has done a good job on with their televised games is matchups. At least early on in the season they look like great games. Once the true teams start separating from the mediocre than will see how the games shape up around mid season and beyond. Tonight’s game offers a true test for the Atlanta Falcons to see if they are ready to rise to the NFL’s elite status.

The over/under in this game is set at 52 while the Falcons have the typical home minus three line. It’s only been one game but Matt Ryan came out as if he is ready to redeem himself all in one game, after his horrible playoff exit performance against the Giants. While the passing game was prolific against the Kansas City Chiefs, questions are high with their ground game and Michael Turner. Turner had only 30 yards rushing on ten carries.

If he has the same type of ineffectiveness, the Broncos may be able to drop more in pass coverage and get a deflection on a tipped ball that leads to a big turnover.

Atlanta is one of those teams that just performs at a higher level at home. There comes a point in time when a receiver has that matchup they covet. Both Roddy White and Julio Jones know they form the best duo on the NFL at receiver. The way the Falcons move them around to pose mismatches, they’ll both likely get some time with Champ Bailey trying to blanket them.

The key word there is try. The old veteran is going to have his hands full like the rest of the NFL does, but I think he gives up two touchdowns in this game.

It’ll be interesting to see how Manning responds if the Broncos get down by more than ten points. Can he remain calm? In his last few years with Indianapolis he became forceful with the football which led to a higher than normal rate of interceptions.

The home field will prove to be too tough. Take Atlanta and the over in this high scoring affair.

Week Two Wonders

Monday, 17 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @cimini

Week two had that usual dramatic appeal that we all have come to love in the NFL. The great plays, hits, and fourth quarter play. Fired up coaches and players, and the comical replacement referees. There were not too many prolific individual performers that jump out on a given week, but there are still some that played way above what their season weekly average will be.

Quarterbacks

Brandon Weeden
Talk about a reversal for Weeden. He looked like he might take a full season to properly adjust to the NFL. Kind of like what use to be the trend for a rookie quarterback. All it takes is a solid running game for a rookie or veteran for that matter to be relaxed. As long as Trent Richardson is able to rush the football like he did Sunday, Weeden will feel less pressure but his issues with turnovers are not going to disappear completely. Cincinnati’s pass defense has a ways to go. Weeden will be tested all year vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Steelers, and plethora of other tough defenses.

Matt Cassel
And the winner for garbage fantasy points of the week goes to……Matt Cassel. With the Chiefs down 35-3 in the fourth quarter, Cassel came out firing like the Chiefs were down by a field goal. He hit Dwayne Bowe for two touchdowns and ended up eclipsing the three hundred yard mark. Cassel in the Chiefs look like they are in a world of hurting again, after starting the season with two straight blowout losses.

Mike Vick
Vick makes this list based on his turnover rate to start the year. For how poor the Eagles have played they have managed to squeak out two victories. If those games would have been losses, Vick’s five interceptions to start the year would have been magnified by the media. He’ll calm things down and the team will adjust as whole and rally behind Vick.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller
Miami ran wild all over the Raiders defense even with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Daniel Thomas missed the game but will remain a big part of the Dolphins backfield. Reggie Bush had twenty six carries and a field day as well. This backfield is dynamic and maybe Miami can use all three backs to keep things simplified for Tannehill and allow for growth. Miller is one of those backs you can stash for a rainy day if you have the roster spots available to do so. Other than that, his fantasy point total this week will likely be his high for the season.

CJ Spiller
It’s not that CJ Spiller won’t have great value but at the rate he is doing it is in question. He is averaging a ridiculous amount per carry, because he has broken off long gainers in both games this season. His carries have not eclipsed fifteen in either game. He is definitely the leagues new home run back but will it tail off, and how will Fred Jackson affect Spiller upon his return?

Wide Receiver

Brandon Tate
Tate reappeared after being yet another forgotten receiver that has departed New England. Andy Dalton is a capable quarterback of spreading the football around, but they are not going to dazzle the league weekly with points. You’re probably looking at a team that may average in the high teens to low twenties at best. Dalton is also not going to be in the top fifteen for touchdown throws by a quarterback. That lessens the value of a receiver especially a third such as Tate.

Mike Williams
Williams makes a repeat entry into the wonders category. He just does not perform for full four quarters as a receiver should. Maybe these two touchdowns the last two weeks will turn things around, but he just does not get enough catches to make him a fantasy starter. If he isn’t scoring touchdowns he is not worth starting. Unless he scores sixteen touchdowns that just isn’t going to happen. He has had five catches this year and two for touchdowns.

Dante Rosario
All Rosario did was infuriate all the Antonio Gates owners out there. Tennessee didn’t want to cover Rosario in the red zone thinking that he can’t catch the ball or without Gates the Chargers do not have a tight end. Obviously Rosario will not repeat a three touchdown performance. Keep an eye on Gates though as the injury history is prevalent every year.

Week Two Quarterback Fantasy Points Range

Saturday, 15 September, 2012

Twitter Questions@Cimini
Points
1 Tom Brady Mid Twenties
2 Cam Newton Low Twenties
3 Drew Brees High Teens
4 Tony Romo High Teens
5 RG3 High Teens
6 Philip Rivers High Teens
7 Matt Stafford High Teens
8 Mike Vick Mid to High Teens
9 Ben Roethlisberger Mid to High Teens
10 Matt Ryan Mid to High Teens
11 Matt Cassel Mid to High Teens
12 Ryan Fitzpatrick Mid to High Teens
13 Peyton Manning Mid Teens
14 Joe Flacco Mid Teens
15 Alex Smith Mid Teens
16 Andrew Luck Mid Teens
17 Matt Schaub Mid Teens
18 Andy Dalton Low to Mid Teens
19 Blaine Gabbert Low to Mid Teens
20 Eli Manning Low to Mid Teens
21 Kevin Kolb Low to Mid Teens
22 Mark Sanchez Low Teens
23 Carson Palmer Low Teens
24 Josh Freeman Low Teens
25 Christian Ponder Low Teens
The rest twelve points or under

Week Two Fantasy Starters

Friday, 14 September, 2012

Tweet your questions @Cimini

Don’t get over anxious for your fantasy starters submissions. There is always that hole of a fill in spot that you’re undecided about. It comes down to the best matchups, and flex or lower tiered starters that you can get the highest point value out of. Eye the right guy. Here are some names that likely won’t dot anyones starting lineups. Be the contrarian fantasy owner and take a risk with one of your last starting fill in spots.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel
Kansas City hung in with Atlanta for two quarters before the offense sputtered and couldn’t keep pace. Kansas City has talent on offense now and Cassel is finally starting to settle in as the Chiefs quarterback. Buffalo gave up a ton of yardage against a Jets team that struggled mightily in preseason action. That trend is not goin to end this week.

Christian Ponder
The Vikings second year man does not get the notoriety that Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have. Ponder replaced McNabb a year ago and showed a knack for evading pressure and holding steady in the pocket. Both of those traits had been impossible for McNabb to do on aging legs. While the focus of this matchup is going to be shined on Andrew Luck, Ponder will be the one that steals the spotlight and outshines Luck.

Kevin Kolb
Kolb is one of those guys that can perform well when the pressure is off him. As a backup in Philadelphia he played terrific, well enough that Andy Reid almost named him starter officially over Donovan McNabb. With Skelton out for a limited time frame Kolb is the starter for at least a game. The pressures off and Kolb has nothing to lose. He can regain the Cardinals coaching staffs confidence in this one.

Josh Freeman
Freeman is many prognosticators favorites to have a bounce back year and be relevant from a fantasy perspective. Week one was a defensive battle where Freeman handled the lead and played within the stages of the game. Things will be different this week against a Giants team that is going to put up points. Freeman’s arm will be on display, and that he will hook up with Vincent Jackson quite often against a banged up Giants secondary.

Running Backs

Curtis Brinkley
This is a head scratcher at first glance from many people, as Brinkley is not known by anyone. This of course will be up to the injury update of Ryan Matthews. If Matthews does not go, than Brinkley is my breakout canidate of the week. The undrafted player out of Syracuse will get some looks, probably a higher amount than week one. Ronnie Brown just does not have anything left. Brinkley will get ten plus fantasy points this weekend.

Kendall Hunter
Hunter had an impressive nine rushes week one. The 49ers want to secure their health throughout this season and into the post season. In order to do that Hunter’s involvement is only going to rise. Veteran running backs such as Gore face all types of minor injuries as the season goes on. Hunter is going to rise up running back weeks every week. In a game where there will likely be points put up by both teams, you have to figure Hunter can get in on the action. Expect a solid eight to ten fantasy points from Hunter. Solid numbers in deep leagues if you’re looking at a flex option.

DeAngelo Williams
Carolina abandoned the rushing attack early after no success against Tampa Bay. Cam Newton sometimes is more of a threat on a weekly basis out of the backfield than any one on the Carolina roster. Week one Newton and the offense struggled for obvious reasons. The balance of playcalls was horrible. They’ll go back to the basics and get the running game its proper amount of play call selections.

Jonathan Dwyer
Pittsburgh is unsettled on who to give their carries too. It will be a split carry load until one of the backs stands out. Dwyer seems like the back that can do the most with the football over Isaac Redman. All it takes is that one game for an unsure backfield to be overtaken. In a prime time game against the Jets the Steelers will look to run, run, and run the football more to control the clock. They did a very good job of controlling the clock against the Denver Broncos, but were out done by a Peyton Manning with a chip on his shoulder.

Wide Receivers

Kevin Ogletree
This one is really going to get all the Ogletree waiver wire owners drooling and hyping up his trade bait. Seattle’s defense is typically good, but an area they struggled against the Cardinals was covering the third receiver. Cardinals receiver Andre Roberts had several key catches including the game winning touchdown. Tony Romo is a considerable upgrade over Skelton or Kolb. When Romo gets a connection developed it continues. Miles Austin came out of nowhere a few years back and so did Laurent Robinson last year.

Jared Cook
San Diego’s secondary was either impressive or Carson Palmer has lost it completely. After minimal starts as a rookie Tennessee will keep things simple for Jake Locker. A young quarterbacks best friend is always at tight end. Cook has the skillset to have a strong year, and in this game against San Diego don’t be shocked to see him have more fantasy points than Antonio Gates.

Brandon LaFell
Teams are geared up to do everything they can to force Cam Newton into discomfort. It’s going to be hard to do on a weekly basis, but division rivals saw Newton twice last year. Tampa Bay made sure the third time was difficult last week. New Orleans gets their third shot as well. You’d expect them to be ready to shutdown Steve Smith better than any other team, as Smith had two of his seven total touchdowns on the Saints a year ago. LaFell is a breakout game away from being considered a top thirty to thirty five fantasy receiver.

Sidney Rice
By no means will Seattle be in this game vs the Cowboys. In fact I expect it to be the ugliest game of the weekend. Ugly blowouts do not eliminate fantasy value from a team, especially at wide receiver. Rice seems to finally be healthy and displayed impressive routes week one against the Cardinals. As the game gets uglier look for Rice to rack up the most garbage fantasy points of the weekend.