Fantasy Football

One More Season

Tuesday, 6 August, 2013

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Bring back Ray Lewis from the studios of ESPN and on the field with a championship contender. Come on New England bring him on board to be the leader of the Patriots defense, and deliver Brady another quest for a shot at a title. No, no, no, this is not a Brett Favre early August rally to see Ray Lewis on the field for one more season.

It does have to do with Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Is it his time to fall off the fantasy radar maps much like greats in the past did, LT, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, etc? He is approaching that age that makes true franchises and fantasy owners get the jitters. All types of questions can surface but I’m not one to predict a complete downfall season unexpectedly. Typically you can see signs of wearing down from a running back to negate his fantasy value. Examples of the more recent would be all the backs listed a few sentences ago, and throw a back like Michael Turner in that mix as well.

Even though a running back may be regressing, in the right situation he is still going to get a fair amount of carries and a large chunk of the workload. As a Jacksonville Jaguar, MJD, will continue to reap the bulk of the Jaguars offensive categories in terms of carries and percentage of involvement in their offense. It’s a question if those carries will be as meaningful as in years past, and if MJD can avoid hitting the injury bug.

But isn’t that a question amongst all NFL players? Yes it is. A year ago MJD s contract issues held his fantasy value low in a lot of drafts, and he did not end up signing his contract until September 3rd. His value for where he ended up getting drafted was far better than the rounds he landed. At least up until he got injured after six games on the field. His production was still near five yards a carry, and being on a team such as Jacksonville worries of him rushing back from an injury were not even thought of.

He has not played tackle football since mid-October and we are only talking about a foot injury here. As long as it has healed properly, you can expect Jones-Drew to regain some of his fantasy football consistency as a top fantasy back.

Time away from the field in fantasy football means you can fall off the fantasy radar blip just a little bit. Just ask Adrian Peterson. His value has re-risen like a company that had a poor earnings quarter and blew past projections three quarters later. He is right back on top.

While the CJ Spiller’s, Trent Richardson’s, and Doug Martin’s come into this season with a higher rating, do not rule out MJD from sneaking back up past them. Jones-Drew has had a few off the field issues this offseason but none that have been tagged as serious offenses.

Going into your fantasy drafts you should realize that Jones-Drew can be there easily for you as a running back second option. Depending on how running backs fly off your draft boards he should be there anywhere from the mid second to early third round. I say if you can get him as your second running back than do it. He’ll be right there with your RB1 statistically, and will for sure have a half of a season’s worth of games in which he’ll outdo your RB1 fantasy points wise.

MJD is not going to fade just yet. I say give him one more season to prove his fantasy relevance or demise. We all saw how Jamaal Charles and AP bounced back from serious injuries in just one season. MJD will be just fine even on that same pathetic anemic Jacksonville Jaguars offense.

The Burning Question

Tuesday, 6 August, 2013

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You could see the writing on the wall for Andy Reid’s grand finale and official exit as a Philadelphia Eagles head coach. He had a long run in Philadelphia but it just seemed that change was needed on both sides. Still a heck of a coach it was no surprise that Reid was a top candidate for the many vacancies left open in the coaching ranks in the offseason of 2013.

He landed in Kansas City were the team has had offensive woes that ranked near the bottom of the league for a passing attack. The money spent on Matt Cassel was right up there for the money the Arizona Cardinals over spent on landing Kevin Kolb. If there is one thing about Andy Reid he knows how to run offenses.

The supporting cast in Philadelphia was always around for Reid to do so. In his first year in Kansas City how will he manage Alex Smith and have the Chiefs competitive in year one?

The answer to that question is to change his rather unique philosophies on game planning offensively. In Philadelphia it was no secret that Reid’s penchant was to throw the football. This year in Kansas City I expect Reid to tone it down quite a bit and ride the backfield starting with Jamaal Charles.

That’s the burning question for fantasy owners. Can they bank on Jamaal Charles even if Andy Reid is back up to his old tricks. Do the names of Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter and LeSean McCoy ring a bell? They should. Buckhalter’s name was brought in the mix to showcase that Reid has had success with a complimentary back having fantasy value. The rest were top tier running backs in their heydays, which McCoy is still in.

Jamaal Charles has that game speed shiftiness intangible that Reid has thrived with backs such as Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. They do not necessarily have to carry the load with 300 carries in a season to be a top fantasy back. Reid ensures his stars are involved in the offense from a running back standpoint, but he mixes it up differently than most coaches do.

He’ll wear down defenses with the quick screen or just stretching the field overall with a simple dump pass route to the running back. One of his patented red zone moves with Donovan McNabb at quarterback was the inside the ten yard line quick shuffle pass to the running back from the shotgun formation. With all the presnap focus and confusing formations set on linebackers, it will continue to work in Kansas City.

Charles is an obvious first round fantasy running back candidate. The worries of Reid’s offense should be halted, as it is inflated conversation with actual results produced by his running backs. If Kansas City throws the football 58 to 60 percent of the time who cares as long as Charles is trending as a top back.

If Charles was a 1500 dominating back on a team that had little to offer a year ago, imagine what he will do with a consistent capable team on the field now?

I rate him right in the range of a first round pick between the 5th and 10th pick. That’s dependent on how quick the running backs fly off the board. If you end up getting him toward the later part of the first round you’ll end up smiling after week one, week two, week three, week four—hell the whole season.

Reid’s history with running backs speaks for itself. The talent of Charles will only spring that chemistry upward and give the Chiefs a chance to catapult as a playoff contender.

Tight End Rankings August 5th

Monday, 5 August, 2013

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A tight end by many fantasy owners is over looked. Keying in on high valuable position players such as quarterback, running back, and wide receiver is the bulk of a successful draft and season. The cream of the crop at the top of leagues though typically have a narrow gap of separation points wise. You need to have success at the tight end, defense, kicker, and flex positions in order to hoist your league trophy and money league prize. In order to do that you need to be thinking of a tight end plan, especially if you do not plan on getting a top tier one.

Here is an early look at the rankings of tight ends. Stay tuned for updates throughout the preseason and regular season.

1. Jimmy Graham- The Saints do keep marching in, with Drew Brees and monster tight end Jimmy Graham.
2. Jason Witten- The Cowboys have had issues year after year building a winning team. Witten has not been one of those issues.
3. Rob Gronkowski- You have to hope all the hoopla surrounding Gronkowski’s injuries will be erased and his play on the field will speak for itself once again.
4. Tony Gonzalez- The Falcons pursued Gonzalez to come back, and why not? He seems to have plenty left in the tank, and would have likely regretted watching a powerful Falcons team return in 2013.
5. Kyle Rudolph- I like how Christian Ponder developed last year. He still had his woes and may be a game manager, but the Vikings do not need him to be superman. He is about eight feet behind him already in the backfield. Rudolph should post similar numbers and will be there a round or two after the top four tight ends go. He is a valuable tier two tight end If you can get him.
6. Vernon Davis
7. Greg Olsen
8. Owen Daniels
9. Antonio Gates
10. Jermaine Gresham
11. Brandon Pettigrew
12. Ed Dickson
13. Jermichael Finley
14. Heath Miller
15. Jared Cook
16. Dustin Keller
17. Fred Davis
18. Jake Ballard
19. Coby Fleener
20. Delanie Walker
21. Martellus Bennett
22. Dwayne Allen
23. Scott Chandler
24. Kellen Winslow Jr
25. Rob Housler
26. Visanthe Shiancoe

Grading New Tight Ends in New Places

Monday, 5 August, 2013

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The spike and rise of offenses in the NFL involving their tight ends as focal points has seen a large shift of use over the past few years. We know about the Jimmy Graham’s, Rob Gronkowski’s, Jason Witten’s, and Tony Gonzalez’s of the first tier automatics. One can argue that as teams have platooned out their running backfields the same has happened at tight end.

Teams have an arsenal at their disposal when it comes to a tight end, and they can use them for an array of situations. The big down playmaker tight end is there, along with the short yardage tight end that can block for pass protection. Mixing the two together forms that added advantage to an offense. While the scale of high fantasy numbers won’t come close to the yardage and touchdowns of the first tier tight ends, you can land yourself a solid six to twelve fantasy points with the depth that is now at the entire tight end position in football.

There were plenty of moves in offseason at tight end and though none are expected to fly off the board in your drafts, drafting an appropriate tight end can be all the difference in squeezing out a win or a loss.

1. Jared Cook
Cook has always had the skill set that’s impressed people. For Cook though I believe it was more of an situational issue with the Tennessee Titans. The Titans offense never found itself with poor play from Jake Locker and CJ2K’s decline. Reuniting with Jeff Fisher and an offense that has weapons should put Cook in a decent TE2 with a possibility of spot starts.

2. Dustin Keller-
Miami did a lot of investing on the defensive side of the football and with Mike Wallace’s contract. Tannehill will have a safety net with Keller, but will Tannehill have enough time to throw the football with a revamped offensive line? Keller did enough as a Jet with the worst quarterback in Mark Sanchez, so that’s why I rank him second of new tight ends in new places.

3. Delanie Walker-
If Vernon Davis had went down to injury at any point, Walker would have been a fine fill in. A lot of Walker’s success came with Alex Smith, who had issues targeting and finding a number one wide receiver as a 49er. That was partly due to the toned down pass plays the 49ers had in place for Smith. Walker possibly fed off of Davis more than anything. Landing in Tennessee could be a big problem for Walker if Locker does not show any advancements on the field.

4. Martellus Bennett-
Bennett looks like a great signing but I’m going to categorize him as a one year wonder for now. He had opportunities his entire career, and finally had a break through as a New York Giant a year ago. I believe teams did not see Bennett as a threat and that’s how he snuck back on the fantasy radar a year ago. Chicago has an offensive minded coach now, and if Bennett struggles I would not be surprised for him to see limited snaps.

5. Brandon Myers-
I may have Myers rated too low in this ranking out of anybody listed so far. In actuality the difference statistically from Cook to Myers thus far should not be much of a difference between a tenth and twelth round pick. Myers shined last year as Raider, which was a team that produced for fantasy owners late in games when behind. As a Giant, Myers automatically steps in to a great situation.

6. Kellen Winslow Jr-
This is the last hooray for Winslow to showcase whatever he has left. His years as a Cleveland Brown seem far distant, before he washed out as a Buccaneer. The Jets are going to give him every opportunity to produce again. If he has came back to full health, Winslow Jr could be a backup tight end in deeper fantasy leagues.
7. Anthony Fasano-
Fasano is on the far backside of his tight end career. But over the years Andy Reid has always been one to have an off balance when it comes to percentages of the run game to pass game. Kansas City is expected to be balanced with Alex Smith and a quarterback friendly game plan. That alone could give Fasano a breakout game or two during 2013. His value is not worth drafting at this time.

8. Visanthe Shiancoe-
This was an emergency veteran signing by the Baltimore Ravens when their young stud Dennis Pitta went down. Schiancoe was non-existent on the fantasy radar last season because he did absolutely nothing. A resurrection at age 33 would be a huge shock. Baltimore signed him for a reason though, and New England has been a destination that has limited careers before. Two years ago in his last season as a Viking, Schiancoe had just 400 yards receiving with and just a few scores. One highlight for Schiancoe is that Joe Flacco loves to get the ball to his tight ends.

Know The Commish

Monday, 5 August, 2013

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The days of summer can last just as long as they use to when you were out of school as a youngster. It’s the down time of the year typically, and for a sports fan is ever so toned down. You pick up your Sports Illustrated or favorite sports magazine and your reading snippets on previews of your favorite teams and teams that are dangerous. Just like the previews at the theatre you have to wait that extra three to four months before the show begins.

Just like movie previews the snippets from the article sometimes can be a total 360 of the actual outcome. Just like over/under NFL team total outcomes which can be viewed along with week one NFL lines and NFL totals

From a fantasy sports perspective hopefully you’ve come to the annual decision to limit yourself to a certain amount of leagues. You’re not only doing yourself a disservice but your fellow buddies as well if you join an over abundance of leagues. Fantasy leagues are more competitive than ever and there is nothing worse than an owner not as active as the other eight to thirteen fantasy owners.

Seeding is on the line each and every week. The phrase “tanking the season” is illustrated in the professional sports world in arguments that teams are chasing a draft pick rather than concentrating on the finish line. The same happens in fantasy football when an owner gets over committed in leagues and ditches a sure losing team for more concentration in a different cash league.

If you’re the commissioner develop rules in place that can limit that from happening, or develop a keeper league that forces almost all owners to have solid interest for an entire fantasy season.

One other area I want to touch on while were in the month of many fantasy drafts being conducted. Know your commissioner especially if you’re going to join a money league. How many times have you been approached by a buddy of a buddy that wants to see if you want to join a money league? All of you more than likely.

When it comes down to payment or payout you connection with the commissioner might end up being as drawn out as the A-Rod and biogenesis pending suspensions.

I’ve heard all too often of people never seeing the money they put into a league. You have to figure that payouts in fantasy leagues come right after Christmas and the holiday season. If you do not have a trustworthy commissioner you will not see a penny of it back. Pressing after a week or two in a low-stakes money league becomes an after thought by you, and that is that. You’ve got an avatar league title to show for your money league victory.

Go into a league knowing your commissioner 100 percent. If you do not know your commissioner all too well, than make sure there is assurance of payout. Sites like LeagueSafe and other ventures should be much safer than handing over cash to a buddy to deliver to an alleged commissioner.

That’s all in this blog post. Follow me on twitter @cimini for tidbits daily in the sports world, and keep coming back to notjustagame.com for resourceful fantasy sports and handicapping information.

HALL OF FAME TOTAL PLAY

Sunday, 4 August, 2013

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Today marks the start of the 2013 NFL season. Miami and Dallas square off with a very low total of 32.5. These two teams had one of the memorable Thanksgiving game days in the mid 90’s. It snowed at the old Cowboys stadium, and featured a back and forth affair with long runs by Terry Kirby. Pete Stoyanovich appeared to have missed a game winning field goal because of the snowy conditions on the field. Leon Lett though tried to fall on the football. As he did the ball squirted loose and the Dolphins re-recovered for an automatic first down. The Dolphins had another attempt at a field goal that was successful and won the game.

That was a trip down memory lane. In todays game you can’t expect much from a couple of teams that have only been in pads at practice for a couple of weeks. Coaches have stages for preparation for their team, and the first preseason game is going to feature a very vanilla game plan from both offenses. Defenses tend to be more prepared to dominate early preseason games. I’ll side with the under on 32.5, in which should be a low scoring methodical game.