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The spread offense is not just for the wildcat or to expose a simple mismatch at the tight end position or with a team’s number one wide receiver. Third receivers or slot receivers use to make their bread and butter primarily on third and longs. That has all changed, and teams are in three wide receiver formations more now than ever. All the continued progress in quarterback’s stats climbing has to be divied out amongst his receivers.

A top caliber fantasy quarterback and even mediocre is going to eclipse the 4000 yard mark with ease. Factor in a top tight end that’ll snag 800-1000 of those yards and an elite wide receiver who will garner between 1000-1400 yards. That leaves a good 40-45 percent of yards left for the rest of the receiving core to gobble up.

St. Louis and Az Hakim were the ones that set the tone in the 2000’s on turning up the offense and having the capability of having three consistent fantasy studs (Bruce, Holt, Hakim) on any given week. Being a notch below as a third receiver on a solid passing team can mean all the world. You have seen third receivers outdo certain teams number ones and twos.

Who are this year’s top Az Hakim potential studs?

Sleepers:
Robert Woods- Buffalo, Domenik Hixon-Carolina, Davone Bess-Cleveland, Terrence Williams- Dallas, Josh Boyce-New England, Kenny Stills- New Orleans, Andrew Hawkins- Cincinnati

1. Eric Decker-
It’s hard to classify Decker as the third wide receiver option, but someone has to be amongst Thomas and Welker. Decker can play any number of roles at wide receiver as he did in college at Minnesota and in his first few seasons with Denver.

2. TY Hilton-
Hilton may be the Colts third wide receiver listed on the depth charts but he is soon to be Andrew Luck’s favorite target. Reggie Wayne keeps staving off age but his years are dwindling down. Hilton just has that big play explosiveness that will keep him on the field for a high amount of plays.

3. James Jones-
Last year was sort of a reappearance for Jones in terms of value. He had dipped quite a bit but was able to get back in the fold with injuries at the receiver position. With Jennings gone to Minnesota and Jordy Nelson recuperating from minor surgery, expect Jones to continue to splatter the fantasy radar.
4. Reuben Randle-

I do not expect Hakeem Nicks to be in and out of the Giants lineup anywhere near to the amount of games that plagued him last year. Randle stood out in action when necessary, but Cruz and Nicks are going to get a high share of Eli Manning’s percentages.

5. Keenan Allen-
I’m one of the few expecting Philip Rivers to bounce back from an awful past couple of seasons. He seems to always find talent amongst his rather non-standout talents at receiver. Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown are still around, but I expect Allen to jump into the mix sooner than later.
6. Andre Roberts-

Roberts flourished with quarterbacks such as Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, mainly because they saw him as their safety net. Fitzgerald is going to continue to draw the disguised coverages to prevent big plays, so that will keep Roberts freed up in one on one coverage. Michael Floyd is about a year away from making a difference. I expect Roberts to outdo him statistically for a second consecutive year.

7. Ryan Broyles-

Broyles steps into to the spot occupied by Titus Young just a year ago. Young for all his issues had some quality production as the Lions third wide receiver. The Lions love throwing the three wide receiver set at defenses, and Broyles is the perfect speed-slot option for this offense.

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The old adage of learning from the sidelines in the NFL has been displaced over the last five to ten years. Teams never wasted time with their high draft picks in other positions to learn on the sideline, so why did they do it for years with quarterbacks? There was a time and age when salaries were not in as high of demand and coaches could dictate a relative time span to insert a quarterback. The goal would be to progress enough with a veteran while the young quarterback learns his role and offense properly.

Advancement in college offenses has enabled quarterbacks to come in with playbook smarts to adapt to the game quickly. Sure coaches may have to tailor their game plan a bit more to five to ten secure safety net plays, but that’s expected. You do not want to overwhelm your rookie quarterback off the bat. The more and more success rookies have (Roethlisberger, Newton, Dalton, and last year’s crop) gives future draftees a little less worry.

I expect the Bills to give EJ Manuel his keys to the offense and let him start week one against New England. Many know the Bills new head coach, Doug Marrone, as the ex-Syracuse coach, before Syracuse though he had many years helping as an offensive coordinator with the Saints and other NFL teams. He has an NFL background and will have the Bills prepared to surprise some people.

At Syracuse the offense is what made Ryan Nassib a high valuable quarterback in last year’s draft. He matured as a four year player at Syracuse, but the offense Marrone and his Syracuse staff tailored for him made Syracuse all that much better. They also had a solid ground game that busted open defenses time after time. Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley were the two backs that ran the system to perfection last year. Marrone will aim for the same success and likely get it with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.

A two back system as quality as the Bills have partnered with their boosted defense should dramatically lessen the burden on EJ Manuel. The offense will be predicated on simple throws from Manuel when needed. He also has the scrambling ability necessary to extend drives.
This Bills team for all the damage of turnovers they had with Ryan Fitzpatrick, still managed to perform decently and hang in games. Their defense should be even stronger this year and they will be able to steal a few surprise games.

Week one at New England may be one of those games.

Flashback to a year ago in the NFL and take a look at who won on the road in New England’s first home game of the season. That was the Arizona Cardinals, led by…….Kevin Kolb. Kolb went on to have a horrific rest of the season that all but ended his ties as an Arizona Cardinal. The key point is that you never have to have an All-Pro quarterback to win games in the NFL. Heck, the Cardinals did not even have a solid ground game.

The Bills have much to offer Manuel as a team, and he’ll grow with that nucleus of players the Bills have. I expect Manuel’s role to be a bit less but comparable to how the Vikings use Christian Ponder. Select throws and enough rollouts and scrambles to keep his mind free during the games. The Bills will let their backfield and defense decide the games for them in year one of EJ Manuel’s career as a Bill.

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Defenses typically are able to hinder offenses when it comes to preseason football, and is largely the reason why preseason totals are so low. The variance of totals is also due to the fact of second and third string quarterbacks stepping onto the field after only a few series by the starters. In case you missed some of the preseason action Thursday, here is quick recap of the starting quarterbacks and how they did on their few series on the field.

Most Impressive: Philip Rivers
It wasn’t the stats that jumped out from Philip Rivers, it was his attitude and leadership. He completed five of six throws and led the Chargers to a field goal drive in his short action. He was enthusiastic and appears to have shed some body fat percentage as he looks leaner. With a new head coach and offensive coordinator in Ken Whisenhunt, Rivers may finally be rejuvenated.

Losers: Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, and Josh Freeman
Peyton only played a series so I won’t be highly critical of his few throws on the field. The series did not last long and he ended it with a third down hurried throw under pressure that fell short while he was hit. Russell Wilson on the other hand was up to his old tricks of scrambling outside the pocket. That worked a year ago but it may be more difficult for him now that teams know his strengths. When it came to throwing the football he struggled to hit his receivers. Once again Wilson was only on the field briefly but it was a poor grade for the Seahawks first string offense. Freeman’s woes have carried over to the start of another season. He’ll need to show some signs of improvement quickly or the Buccaneers will lean in another direction before this season is over.

Impressive Second/Third Tier Quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Brandon Weeden
St. Louis vs Cleveland looked like a scrimmage for the most part with Bradford and Weeden in at quarterback. Simple routes were left wide open, and both Bradford and Weeden had no problem picking apart either defenses. I think their performances were inflated as a result, but the key is they did well. Both quarterbacks threw for over a hundred yards with a touchdown each, which would check them out with a high grade for their first preseason game. Cousins is setting himself up nicely for a possible Matt Schaub type of deal once he is a free agent. He performed well in relief of RG3 last year and has handled the backup role in the proper demeanor. He went six of seven with a touchdown in leading the first team offense for the Redskins.

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There are certain teams in football that cannot stay away from the media dramatization in soap opera fashion. Chip Kelly is coming in with a revved up offense that the NFL has never seen before. Kelly is going to be testing just how much he can force the issue with play calls and wearing down opposing defenses. Wearing down a defense is one thing, but the speed advantage Chip Kelly had at Oregon is another. Speed is not an issue in the NFL. When you’re on that field it’s for the most part a sideline to sideline and end zone to end zone fierce athletic enclosed field.

All it’s going to take is for that one play to be called to quickly, and a missed block assignment for Mike Vick to end up right back where he is all too familiar with—on his back shaken and woozy. Mike Vick’s at the stage in his career where he can ill afford to consistently take hits. Do you really believe a new head coach in Chip Kelly is going to have the interest of Mike Vick’s health on his mind? He came in with a system in mind and he is going to run it.
The drafting of Matt Barkley and keeping Nick Foles in discussion for the starting quarterback job now is where his mindset sits. We all know that Foles will be sitting on the bench in favor of Vick once week one is here.

One area that should offset and protect Vick somewhat is the depth at running back with LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown. Brown showed he can carry the load if he needs to in stints of starts with McCoy out in 2012. At Oregon, Kelly made it standard to run the football downhill with constant action.

My worries for that adaptation to the NFL is how Kelly calls that high pace action when the running game is not working or they’re losing? At Oregon they were in the lead the majority of the time and that made it a non-issue for 95 percent of Oregon’s games. Games they did lose like last year to Stanford were blueprints that NFL teams have used before in shutting down high octane offenses. Stanford milked the clock offensively and put all their might into winning the trenches on the defensive line.

It worked and it was a methodical low-scoring game that Oregon was unaccustomed too. The same thing has happened for run and shoot offenses in the 90’s with the Houston Oilers and Buffalo Bills. The Bills lost their first Super Bowl to the New York Giants because the Giants chose to sustain drives offensively and milk the clock as much as possible.

I just hope Chip has a backup plan in game situations that his play calling is not working. We all know Andy Reid’s was to have Vick drop back and take a mercilessly beating.

It does not bode well that before the Eagles first preseason game that Jeremy Maclin and Arrelious Benn are out for the season at receiver. The receiver that has to pick up the slack is none other than Riley Cooper. He has familiarity with the Eagles offense but there will obviously be a ton of pressure on him mentally each time he steps on the field and off the field. Will he be ready for that role?

That leaves Jason Avant who seems to have been on the team even before the pre-McNabb era. In actuality it’s only been eight years, but Avant is not the caliber of player that is going to be a threat in the three wide receiver sets. He is on the downside of his career and is just a serviceable receiver at this point of his career.

The rest of the Eagles receivers are unproven for the most part. Damaris Johnson from Tulsa had a decent finish to last season, but there is no possible way he can line up opposite DeSean Jackson. He is only 5’8 and 175 pounds, which would be opposite of Jackson who is just 5’10 and 175 pounds himself. The injuries may continue to mount at wide receiver—Jackson has not exactly proven to be able to avoid the injury bug.

We’ve seen college coaches race right back to the college ranks—Bobby Petrino, Nick Saban–. Chip Kelly may side step going back immediately because of the penalties facing him from Oregon, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do that down the road. It’s not for everyone and if his system fails in Philadelphia, he’ll go back to where he knows it’ll be successful.

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The New Orleans Saints may hate to admit it, but when they let Reggie Bush walk away a few years ago, a part of the Saints explosiveness disappeared. Darren Sproles had some sporadic games in which he was able to reappear in the form of Reggie Bush like a magic-trick, but injuries have hurt Sproles effectiveness.

New Orleans never really did use Bush in the way he would have liked. They used him more as a decoy, and with how fast the Saints were scoring, Bush’s role was never really questioned. Part of the issue that has transformed Bush was his ability to shake off the misperception that he could not run in –between the tackles. As a Saint, he truly couldn’t. That’s where the Saints would utilize one of their plethora of backs they had to carry the load.

Bush wanted to shake that label, and he did just that as a Dolphin. He proved to be much more than a PPR fantasy option, as he had several big games on the ground. Even though Miami had options of Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller, Bush still put up viable numbers of nearly 1000 yards rushing.

Now the question is how will Miami and Detroit adjust with/without the Bush factor? Miami believed they needed to give their young running backfield a chance to break through. Miller and Thomas figure to platoon the carries. Both had their share of carries last year but I do not believe either put two feet down for the permanent lead role in 2013.

With both having injury concerns it will be imperative they make it through September and October healthy. Nothing lowers the chance of a young back to prove himself than getting hurt right out the gate. There are too many young talented backs that will get an opportunity if that happens. In the preseason game against Dallas on Sunday neither Miller nor Thomas had great outings, with Miller botching a handoff at the start of the game.

The preseason is not a time to over react, the Miami coaching staff believes they made the right decision with these two. I do not expect either to be a fantasy football juggernaut, because of their offensive line issues and the second year growth of Tannehill. They do deserve to be flex options and roster depth fillers.

In Detroit, Reggie Bush is going to get a slightly bigger role than what he had last year in Miami. Detroit is not going to go full throttle with him as they still have Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. The area where Bush will exceed his fantasy value over the past two years is out of the backfield. We all know the Lions have Megatron and a decent cast of receivers around him. They’re also a team that ranks near the top in pass attempts with Matthew Stafford and three to four spread receiver sets.

This is the area where Bush’s stats out of the backfield should shift back to where they were as a Saint. That should get him in the range of 450 (low end) to 600 (high end) receiving yards. There is no telling what he can do with the type of explosiveness he has and additional throws that will come his way.

He will be involved and not forgotten as what happened in New Orleans. You just have to hope that Bush does not get disgruntled throughout the season if the Lions lean to Bell or LeShoure in a given game. He didn’t in Miami, so I do not expect it to get to him now.

If you’re not focusing on running backs early, and plan to get your RB2 later, than Bush is a solid gamble to fill that role. That’s in standard fantasy formats. If it’s a PPR than you’ll be more than happy with Bush.

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Familiarity in all walks of life can lead you in directions you would not expect. Complacency in a career is something you never want to happen. In the sports world free agency keeps most athletes on their heels. In San Diego that has not been the case at quarterback.

Philip Rivers at one time looked like he could very well be worth the trade value of Eli Manning. Heck, there was a time San Diego fans were even okay with the fact that Drew Brees was allowed to walk away. Those times seem ancient especially over the last couple of seasons were there seemed to be a non-existent attention to detail for Rivers or the offensive playbook.

Tracing the offenses woes to a couple of key areas is easy. The Chargers did not have LT and were trying to go with a platoon of running backs due to Ryan Matthews constant injuries. The offensive line that used to be stable a few years ago regressed. Rivers has seen his sack-ratio rise from an average of the mid 20’s from 2006 to 2009, to in the high thirties the last three seasons—including a whopping 49 sacks a year ago.

There was also a time the Chargers had big play receivers at their disposal. Vincent Jackson was a top receiver in the league, but for some reason the Chargers did not want to pony up the dollars to re-sign him and keep him a Charger. Antonio Gates redefined the athletic tight end and became an example for other teams to emulate. The same injury bug tune that has hit Matthews has plagued Gates the last few years. Literally the Chargers have done almost next to nothing to protect their franchise quarterback and build a nucleus of talent around him the past few seasons.

It is amazing Rivers has remained unscathed to time off the field because of injury. He has taken a severe beating, and a just like a boxer, at some point you’re going to make mistakes if you’re getting targeted frequently. Norv could never figure that out and there were a few times a year ago that you could see the two clashing visibly on the sidelines.

With Norv gone the familiarity of a coach that Philip obviously did not get along with is erased. Rivers is only entering his 10th year at quarterback, and eighth as a starter. His quest to get back to an AFC championship is not going to happen this year, but he can begin to regain confidence in himself and his teammates. Honing in on getting back to the basics needs to be his first priority.

He knows the talent at wide receiver is not the great in San Diego. They did not sign any key free agents and spent a draft pick on Keenan Allen. News today that Danario Alexander tore his ACL will only decrease the wide receivers value on the Chargers roster. They do have serviceable receivers though in Vincent Brown, Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Eddie Royal. All have had their moments in their careers on different teams.

A big key too is that all have been Chargers for at least a year. Rivers should already have timing down with them, and a connection in the pocket to find them.
I think the AFC West will surprise some people with the possible emergence of Kansas City and a newfound actual veteran in Philip Rivers. He has the intangibles to be an elite quarterback in this league again. He needs to realize that each down does not need to be a home run play, and that he can hold back on a series when it is not there.

Numbers do not lie, and a tell-all stat for Rivers trying to do too much is how many fumbles he has had the last two years. He has had 24 fumbles, but only 12 were recovered. Rivers is not a scrambler anymore either. So it’s not like he is getting drilled ten to twenty yards down the field and losing the ball. He is holding it far too long in the pocket.

If Rivers would have played the way he has the past two years for different coaches other than Norv, he likely would have found the bench.

Rivers will reawaken this season and I expect a strong rise in his yardage totals, and for him to calm down in the turnover department both with fumbles and interceptions. If you are the type of fantasy draft owner that likes to wait on a quarterback, and then get two semi-decent quarterbacks (E. Manning, Romo, Roethlisber, etc) and having your choice of who to start each week—I’d include Rivers in that conversation.

By the end of September and early October, Rivers will have that green upward arrow on him as he ascends from the low teens range he is at right now for fantasy quarterbacks.