Follow @cimini

Did you hold your fantasy draft back in June or July and now are left staring at a roster you believe to be the best possible? There can only be one hype man of your team and that’s you. By week one you may find yourself needing to upgrade. Rankings by your fantasy league via rotisserie stats are meaningless. Pay attention to weekly rankings here.

After the second week of the preseason here are where the running backs rank.

! Denotes On The Rise
^ Denotes On The Decline

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin !- Owners and soon-to-be draftees worry not. Martin did not sustain a concussion on his knee to the head in week two of the preseason.
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster ^- Foster has not let little nagging injuries in the past few seasons deter his fantasy success. One can escape a couple of times, but the injury bug is calling Foster’s name. Precautions seem to be the main reason he is missing preseason. For fantasy owners Foster is the top ten back that has the most question marks.
6. CJ Spiller
7. Ray Rice
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Alfred Morris
10. Chris Johnson
11. Trent Richardson
12. Stevan Ridley
13. Ryan Matthews
14. MJD !- MJD is quickly falling out of the top tier of fantasy backs. As we’ve seen with top fantasy backs of the past, once the fall begins, the drop descends rather quickly from fantasy relevancy.
15. Matt Forte
16. Frank Gore
17. Darren McFadden
18. David Wilson !- The Giants just have a knack for having that steady backfield. Manning’s had Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw who have all been fantasy studs at one point or another.
19. Steven Jackson
20. Lamar Miller
21. DeMarco Murray
22. Andre Brown
23. Reggie Bush
24. Chris Ivory
25. Vick Ballard
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ^- Green-Ellis’s biggest impact for fantasy owners were his mauler runs for six in the red zone. Still Ellis was an every down back that could provide chunks of yards to those plungers. Giovanni Bernard has been electric in games and in practice. Carries will be taken away from Ellis slowly but surely, and likely a higher fashion of split carries than Ellis has seen in quite awhile.
27. Darryl Richardson
28. Rashard Mendenhall
29. Darren Sproles
30. Le’Veon Bell
31. Mikel Leshoure
32. Bryce Brown !- The fast pace expected from the Eagles has to come with movement of backup players at key positions. Running back is at the top of the list as the Eagles will do all they can to protect Vick’s health.
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Eddie Lacy
35. Ronnie Hillman
36. Giovani Bernard
37. Mark Ingram
38. Shane Vereen
39. Ben Tate
40. Jonathan Stewart
41. Bernard Pierce
42. Montee Ball
43. Fred Jackson
44. Jonathan Dwyer
45. Ahmad Bradshaw
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Joseph Randle
48. Isaac Redman
49. Jacquizz Rodgers
50. Fred Helu
51. Donald Brown
52. Mike Bush
53. Mike Goodson
54. Pierre Thomas
55. Alfonso Smith
56. Joique Bell
57. Jonathan Franklin
58. Denard Robinson ^- Each year there is a new wrinkle unfolded by franchises to muster yards on the football field. Robinson’s use as a Jaguar should be one of the more curious developments in the early weeks of the season. This will not be like the Pat White experiment Miami tried. Robinson will get direct carries from the backfield as he has in the first couple weeks of preseason and at Michigan last year.
59. Knile Davis
60. Daniel Thomas

Follow @cimini

The calendar days are narrowing to September and the inevitable kickoff of the 2013 NFL season. Brigades of quarterbacks flying off the board in round one and two can be halted, as signal callers in your fantasy drafts are prevalent to be as deep as ever. Head back to your old ways of waiting on a quarterback as it looks to be a safe-bet this season. A fantasy starter and dependable point producer can likely be found in mid-round drafts.

Be sure to protect your quarterback with a safeguard backup. Injuries derail teams on the field and that cannot even protect the fantasy worlds of rosters. Here is the latest installment of fantasy quarterback rankings.

! Denotes Rising
^ Denotes Declining

1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Matt Ryan
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Tom Brady
6. Cam Newton
7. Colin Kaepernick ! The trade for Jonathan Baldwin gives Kaepernick more of a promising threat than last year’s developing first round pick in Jenkins. Look for Kaep to produce as a top five quarterback quickly this season, and sustain it.
8. RG3
9. Peyton Manning
10. Andrew Luck
11. Tony Romo
12. Russell Wilson ^ The praise for Wilson is never-ending, but the ridicule seems to be impossible from the media and fans. I’m not impressed with the way the Seahawks offense has functioned in preseason. Even in their rout of the Broncos the over all ending was inflated. Wilson is a winner and so is Seattle, but I believe Wilson’s fantasy value will drift towards Eli Manning’s, Big Ben’s, and Joe Flacco’s. All winners but mediocre fantasy football quarterback options.
13. Joe Flacco
14. Andy Dalton ^ Cincinnati is one of those quiet teams that are good that no one wants to publicize. Besides AJ Green and the Law Firm many people would have are hard time to ascertain other names on the Bengals roster. Give Marvin Lewis credit. He has kept the Bengals relative and that was with quick transgressions of transforming the team. No team has went from an out with the old (Palmer, TJ Housh, Ocho Cinco, C. Benson and many others) and revamped on defense and offense without multiple years of losing as well as the Bengals.
15. Eli Manning
16. Carson Palmer !- It’s obvious that the Cardinals are going to attack to their strengths offensively. That will likely not be in the backfield with extracted former Steeler Rashard Mendenhall trying to supplant numerous young running backs. Palmer has a great set of receivers and an offensive minded head coach in Bruce Arians that will make Palmer fantasy relevant.
17. Ben Roethlisberger ^- It’s sad to see but Big Ben appears to be descending into the Philip Rivers stage of his career. He has resembled what most franchises want out of a young quarterback but has also paid the price. His nimbleness in the pocket is declining and so are his weapons. The Steelers have a conundrum to figure out at receiver and running back, as Roethlisberger will be without Mike Wallace, Plaxico Burress, and Heath Miller for a time period. This spells trouble as the make shift offensive line has been atrocious in the preseason.
18. Matt Schaub
19. Ryan Tannehill !- Miami is a team that is likely a year away from turning the corner as a playoff contender again. To blow past those expectations Tannehill can defy that by uprooting his own lofty goals for 2013. Do not forget it is Tannehill that led the Dolphins to a fourth quarter comeback victory over Seattle and Russ Wilson last year.
20. Mike Vick ^- He has the starting job now but the pressure is as high as the last row atop the Eagles stadium. Vick’s in a make or break season running a new system offense. It looked pretty in college for Chip Kelly, but the NFL is a different ball game where speed is neutralized. Last year Oregon’s first opponent was Arkansas State. Chip Kelly will learn first hand and unfortunately Mike Vick is his first test at this at quarterback.
21. Philip Rivers ^- At this point Rivers may need a new organization that he can grow with as San Diego seems absent minded at protecting Rivers.
22. Christian Ponder
23. Brandon Weeden !- You have to be pleased with Weeden’s progression in preseason. His play has been shined upon from the media conglomerates for his standout performances. I won’t get carried away just yet. This is the same quarterback that had cannon deep ball plays in several games last year, only to have hiccups on other drives. A quarter of play is one thing but can Weeden play four complete quarters?
24. Josh Freeman
25. Alex Smith
26. EJ Manuel
27. Jake Locker
28. Jay Cutler
29. Sam Bradford
30. Blaine Gabbert
31. Mark Sanchez
32. Matt Flynn

Follow @cimini

Preseason can be one of the harsh gray areas for fantasy football participants to over predict. Just because someone has a stellar preseason does not mean it will carry over into the regular season. Actual sleepers tend to come during the season and are because of injury. With Rob Gronkowski’s rehabilitation dragging into the season, many are quick to wrap their sights and take Sudfeld as a sleeper now.

Before you pull that trigger on Sudfeld lets calm the storm before you get tossed into it. It’s evident that Sudfeld would step into a significant role with New England. As Tom Brady has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league at diagnosing mismatches with his tight ends. The skill set that Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had over Sudfeld is obvious. They were more athletic and possessed the speed to whirl by their opposing defenders. Seam routes were fantasy havens for owners of Gronk and Hernandez especially when it came down to red zone opportunities.

Defensively teams had to pick their poison on who was at-risk in one on one coverage especially when both Gronkowski and Hernandez were on the field at the same time. Their ascent to the rise of tight ends in the NFL was largely due to their complementary abilities of each other, and the fact that they were deemed elite tight ends coming out of college.

Before Brady had the duo of Hernandez and Gronk, Brady never had even close to the success statistically over the first nine years of his career. In the pre-Gronk and pre-Hernandez era Brady had unreliable fantasy tight end targets. Remember the names of Kyle Brady, Ben Watson, and Christian Fauria? I’d guess maybe ten percent of you had Ben Watson as your fantasy tight end during those bottom tier years of tight end significancy out of New England.
Watson’s top year receiving yards wise was 643 yards and he also topped out another year with six touchdowns. Christian Fauria and Kyle Brady were did not even touch the blips of waiver wire consideration.

My point with New England is they’ll likely figure out a shuffle of guys not just Sudfeld to make due for however long Gronkowski is out. The Patriots will not let it be known just yet what the time table for Gronkowski return is. More than likely the team will keep him out as long as possible to ensure proper prevention is met this time, as he has been unstable with injuries over the past year.

Sudfeld sure had an great performance in the first game of the preseason. Teams have no true game plans going in and sure as heck did not have Sudfeld in mind for assignment attention. Regular season will be a different story. If he is going to see twenty plus plays on the field, the opposing defenses will be ready for him. He is a big target at 6’7 with soft hands but does not possess the physical or speed attributes that New England had with Gronk and Hernandez.

Sudfeld’s three touchdowns in the preseason are bound to cause some fantasy football owners to reach out for Sudfeld as a *sleeper*. Others can buy low on Sudfeld as I do believe his three touchdowns in two weeks of the preseason are an aberration. Come the regular season I’ll be shocked if he reaches that touchdown total for the entire season.

Follow @cimini

Points, points, and more points are how fantasy leagues are going nowadays. I, myself still enjoy the more standard type of point system leagues. As tweaks and more innovative ways to gain points accumulates you can sometimes have individuals in leagues side one way versus other league participants. It’s going to happen and many could argue that additional points are futile to capturing a team’s true value.

To assuage owners there are certain point structures that just never go away. The category of turnovers is often overlooked when owners draft, but not on game day Sunday’s. Monster runs after high profile fantasy quarterbacks took fantasy drafts by storm last year. Only to see quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford plummet from their draft day value with inconsistency throughout the season. Making matters worse was the fact that both quarterbacks saw a rise in their turnovers. Stafford threw nearly as many touchdowns (20) as he did in interceptions (17) last season. The year prior he had an onslaught season with 41 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions.

Stafford owners that drafted him were hit with the double whammy of ineffectiveness last season. The big decline hit Newton as noted above dramatically as well. His was in a different area of expected continued production. Defenses adjusted to his open field running ability and clamped down on his number one skill-set. His drop from fourteen rushing touchdowns to just eight was a decrease of thirty six fantasy points. Not to mention that his consistent production from 2011 was not dependable, as he had some rough weeks the first eight to ten games of the season.

Fantasy owners need to dig deeper and realize that just because teams are throwing more does not mean your fantasy quarterback is going to ride the gravy train of double digit fantasy points every week. Predicting which quarterbacks are going to decline from a statistical stand point is almost impossible. I don’t care how many websites have a lineup helper or not. Turnovers are an area I would focus on.

Many of us have been in leagues where the point differential for any given week win/lose is by the slimmest of points. Quarterbacks can be the biggest detriment if they’re having a rough week by compounding your possible fantasy points with turnovers. Last year twenty six different quarterbacks threw ten or more interceptions, and fifteen had four or more fumbles. That’s a substantial amount of negative points from your fantasy quarterback on a season.

Rest assured without proper protection from your quarterback in the turnover department you will lose one to two games a season because of it.

Football is at a time where the guessing game on which teams are going to air out the football is over. The majority of teams have game plans tailored on winning their games through the air. In fantasy football you have diagnose which teams are on bad teams that will derail their performance as the season goes on with turnovers. Unlike receivers and running backs that accumulate garbage points playing from behind, quarterbacks tend to see a rise in their turnovers from more forced throws.

Here are quarterbacks I’d monitor with watchful eyes for a high amount of turnovers in 2013.

1. Matt Stafford
2. Russ Wilson
3. Philip Rivers
4. Jay Cutler
5. Eli Manning
6. Cam Newton
7. Tony Romo
8. Carson Palmer
9. Mike Vick
10. Colin Kaepernick

Follow@cimini

The focus in Chicago and many other Bears fans in relocated cities for years has been their disdain for Lovie Smith. Nine years with Lovie Smith through all of the hot seat periods calling for his name seemed to be a little too long for the relationship to last. Frankly I thought he should have been let go a few years back. His coaching over the last few years actually was solid. Ultimately the front office decided it was just time for an overhaul of change. Change is good in the NFL ranks for coaches, and the time had come for Smith to depart.

Change though can be a period that players and coaching staffs undergo rough stretches. We all know how Jay Cutler has been portrayed by the media, and how he has a tendency to forgo making the right play with idiotic throws. His play will definitely be an adjustment for his new head coach in Marc Trestman. Cutler is not your ordinary temperament type of personality.

Trestman’s football background is there, and his success in the CFL convinced the Bears organization to take an unorthodox approach in hiring Trestman from the CFL.

A head coaching change was not the only big announcement the Bears had this offseason. They also did not retain Brian Urlacher at linebacker. The cornerstone linebacker had been with the team for 13 seasons. The Bears decision to only offer him a one year two million dollar deal at first drove Urlacher irate. He believed the offer was basically a cop out to tell him he was not wanted as a Bear anymore.

His plan to test the market as a free agent died quickly as he announced his retirement.

There were no mysteries that Lovie Smith was a defensive minded head football coach as a Bear and the team reigned and fed off his leadership defensively. Heck there style of play even got them to an improbable Super Bowl with Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton leading the way. That seems like many years ago, and it was. Chicago unlike most teams has retained quite a few players on the defensive side of the football.

This year is going to be a true test of their defense that has lost nine years of Smith’s coaching, and thirteen years of Urlacher at linebacker. A combined twenty two years of experience.

Looking at the Bears roster they have players such as Charles Tillman (11th season), Lance Briggs (11th season), Julius Peppers (12th season), Tim Jennings (8th season), and DJ Wiliams (8th season) all as starters. You definitely do not see as much age on a defense as you do in Chicago. Particularly their core stars in Tillman, Peppers, and Briggs who are all in double digit years in the NFL. Longevity has never been a friend to NFL players and you have to believe at least one or two of these players is going to hit the backside of their talent this season.

The Bears will have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, and they’ll likely be just as tough as to how Urlacher’s ended. Baltimore made headlines the way it handled its championship defense and let them go via free agency. Their defense played solid in 2013 but was not elite at all. The key word for the Ravens is that they were opportunistic, but they gave up their fair share of points. As Ray Lewis said often, Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense was the reason the Ravens got as far as they did.

Bears fans be ready to embrace a down year in terms of defense.

Follow @cimini

The media has criticized, praised, and lambasted Tim Tebow continuously. His time as an NFL starting quarterback has come and gone, yet the media will strangle their hold on his publicity until he is completely off an NFL roster. Truth be told, quarterbacks come and go by way of their play on the field daily, weekly, and yearly. You’re not guaranteed to be a starter no matter what round you’re picked in or the size of your contract.

Unfortunately over in Tennessee they’ve dragged on with Jake Locker a bit too long. Every characteristic that has been attributed to Tim Tebow can be categorized the same for Locker. In college he was boasted as a supreme athlete that could do-it-all and he did. The four year starter was predicted to be an easy lock as a top five or even the number one pick.

He did not declare as a junior, and therefore, so his stock overall decline as a senior. Locker was still expected to be a first round pick but no one believed he be a top five pick, in fact most had him as a mid to late first round pick. Draft day came and the Titans believed Locker was their guy to not pass on with the eighth selection.

Legs and an ability to produce on the run and broken down plays have cast a few years to many as starting quarterbacks in the league. Vince Young was able to do it successfully to as a Titan before Locker. Locker’s inefficiencies with his arm were there in college, and have haunted him in his young career thus far. In college Locker’s completion percentage was just around 54 percent. Guess what it has been in sixteen games in the NFL? ….55 percent

Locker is not dropping back and throwing it 40 to 50 times a game either. The only quarterbacks behind Locker in completion percentage a year ago were Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Andrew Luck, and Chad Henne. All but Luck, who was a rookie, will likely be demoted after this season (Henne is a backup). Stats do not lie and the Titans will be faced with a tough decision soon on the amount of money they’ve invested in Locker.

He can probably be a solid backup or situational quarterback, but too succeed in the NFL you need to have a consistent arm. Those extra five to eight completions can be all the difference in winning a game.

I believe the Titans made a mistake by letting Matt Hasselbeck sign as a free agent with the Indianapolis Colts, as they’ll definitely need a different signal caller under center when Locker struggles. Hey Titans fans, does the name Ryan Fitzpatrick ring a bell?

Fitzpatrick is a quarterback that just finds himself in opportune situations time and time again, even though his skillset is not that of a starter. He has been on the Rams, Bengals, and Bills. With every team he was brought in as a backup and ended up starting games either due to injuries or poor quarterback play. There is no doubt he will start games for the Titans, his fourth team that he will do so. Frankly, I believe he gives the Titans a better chance to win on the field. The burden of a huge contract that the Bills mistakenly gave him is off his shoulders now.

By mid-October expect Fitzpatrick on the field and to actually play decent as he has notoriously done when called off the bench.