Fantasy Football

Fantasy Injury Worthiness: Le’Veon Bell

Friday, 23 August, 2013

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The fact that Le’Veon Bell went down to injury is noteworthy. Now that it has been classified as a mild sprain, fantasy owners can prepare for the Steelers backfield over the course of the first four to six weeks of the regular season. It’s not like owners have not seen it before. This has occurred frequently in the Pittsburgh backfield since Rashard Mendenhall went down a few years ago, and never could overtake the position last year.

Offensive worries for the Steelers should be more focused on the offensive line and protecting Big Ben. Todd Haley’s offensive play calling will be in serious question if the Steelers continue to get over ran in the trenches on the offensive line. They need to perform better as a unit or it will not matter if Tim Tebow is in the backfield for crying out loud.

Let’s pick apart the current Steelers backfield of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and LaRod Stephens-Howling on who will be the main threats for fantasy points. I do believe all will pay a vital role, as Todd Haley coordinates the offense more around a tailored power game, until the offensive line shows more cohesiveness.

Biggest Threat:
LaRod Stephens-Howling is one of those scat backs that has developed over the years as a suitable guy out of the backfield in third down situations. When injury woes last year in Arizona to Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams occurred, Howling showed that he can do more than be a situational down athlete. He had two one hundred yard rushing games last year. On a poor Cardinals offense he was still under-utilized. The Steelers saw value in him and I believe they’ll tinker with using his skills more with Bell out. Quick screens to keep the defense honest is always a key play to have. That’s not a possible play to run with Dwyer or Redman

Best Option:
Jonathan Dwyer’s break away speed and burst through the hole may be dead last in the NFL, but Dwyer is a big body that defenses have a hard time bringing down. He averaged four yards a carry last year but never really grasped a hold of the tail back position like the Steelers would have liked. Based on his preseason thus far and compared to Redman, Dwyer looks like the guy the Steelers would lean on. He needs to find his way into the end zone more to be of fantasy significance, as putting up DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart rushing yards is not going to cut it. By the Steelers drafting Bell that should have been a wake up call for Dwyer. I think he’ll respond and exceed fantasy expectations the first month of the season.

DOG HOUSE FANTASY OPTION:
Fumbleitis does not go away in the minds of head coaches. Isaac Redman may be a contracted Steeler but neither Todd Haley or Steelers Head coach Mike Tomlin is going to lean on Redman after his three fumbles on just 110 carries last season. Quite frankly the Steelers would have leaned more heavily on Dwyer if he had the versatility as an all-around back. Now that Stephens-Howling is in the fold, and barring Howling’s health, I do not believe Redman will see the field nearly as much as fantasy owners are with Bell out.

PRONE TO TURN IT OVER

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

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A turnover in football is always unexpected and the vast majority of the time causes chaos on the field. Delayed reaction from coaches to challenge the play, turns into referees going to the monitor for an extended amount of minutes to see if the play was correct or not. Once the call is upheld or over turned that delay turns into an instantaneous move on your stat tracker. Minus two to such and such a player occurs, and can derail momentum for your fantasy player.
On the field that turnover produced by your fantasy player could mean a negative impact the rest of the game. Maybe he got hurt on the play, or his head coach may decide he needs to alter the runs or throws that player is doing. Occasionally that player may even be told to take a seat or he may see his carries reduced heavily the rest of the game.

Unfortunately in fantasy football your bench is non-existent when it comes to being interchangeable on game day. With all the advents in scoring and league changes, I would not be surprised to see leagues that allow roster moves live. There’d be kinks to it, but a move of a player could only happen with a player that is ahead on the game clock in terms of quarters to be allowed to be substituted for a player. Seemingly you would not be allowed to sub an athlete out that scored four points in three quarters for one that’s playing in the late game.

I’ve seen it all too often where an athlete has eight to ten fantasy points and then a turnover rattles them to the point they’re ineffective the rest of the way. You have to know who are the prone athletes to turning the football over. Here are fantasy worthy positional players that were at the top of the league in fumbling and interceptions last season. Quarterbacks I have showcased both interceptions and fumbles.

QB INTS QB Fumbles RB Fumbles WR Fumbles TE Fumbles
Romo 19 Rivers 7 Chris Johnson 4 B. Brown 3 D. Thomas 3 Pettigrew 2
Brees 19 Vick 5 McGahee 4 Morris 3 Megatron 3
Luck 18 Luck 5 Redman 4 McCoy 3 Colston 2
Stafford 17 Cutler 4 Jackson 4 LeShoure 3 Amendola 2
Rivers 15 Rodgers 4 Spiller 3 E. Sanders 2
Ryan 14 Stafford 4 Charles 3

At quarterback you see two names linked to both interceptions and fumbles. If they’re not considered a tier one or two fantasy quarterback I left their names void on this list. We’re only considering starter stats that affect your results in fantasy scoring. Matt Stafford and Philip Rivers were both in the top six for fumbles and interceptions, and each drove their fantasy owners crazy a season ago. Stafford owners more than Rivers because of the notoriety that came with selecting Stafford as a high round draft pick. Linking Stafford to such non-illustrious fantasy weeks is easy now that we see the turnover issues. Not only was he forced to throw the football too many times, but defenses were able to unload with pressure because they knew the Lions were throwing the football. Even though Rivers is a downgraded fantasy player these days, you have to wonder if a revamped change in coaching may help protect Rivers a bit more.
Running backs main goal on the football field is to protect the football. A coach does not care if it’s for a one yard pile plunger, or an open field burst. The ball carrier is taught to protect the football, and it is harped on every day in practice. Punching the football out and gang tackling to produce a fumble is becoming more of a skill by defenders. All in all fumbles are going to happen but they need to be analyzed versus the amount of carries a back has received.
Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller combined had seven fumbles on the season in 2012. That’s not acceptable from a backfield that is supposed to try and aide their new rookie quarterback. When news broke out of Le’Veon Bell’s foot injury many would think Isaac Redman has a solid chance to reclaim a role like he had a year ago. He may get a few carries in the mean time but the Steelers will likely look elsewhere after Redman’s four fumbles on just 110 carries last season.

At wide receiver and tight end the fumbles are not as worrisome. One they’re handling the football on a much less of a ratio than a quarterback or running back. Secondly, if a fumble occurs with a receiver or tight end they are more than likely flying down the football field. If the ball pops out chances are they’re close to the sideline, or in the open field. Further away from the line of scrimmage increases the opportunity of a recovery by the offense because the defensive lineman and linebackers usually are not down the field.

The only player I’d be concerned about would be Marques Colston. His total fumbles were only two but four were forced on him. He is a taller body that never necessarily had speed coming into the league. Ball protection will be heightened for emphasis when it comes to Colston by his coaching staff.

Another Gear, Speed Kills

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

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When talent evaluation occurs for NFL prospects an area of focus tends to be an athlete’s forty yard dash speed. Al Davis was notorious for heightening the speed at combine’s and over reaching for athletes in the NFL draft. He wanted speed on the field and when a match occurs with talent, it’s deadly on the football field.

For us in the fantasy sports world there are scales of receivers that have speed, but are they worth drafting? Year after year the draft occurs and some of these names may have fallen off your rememberance track. Get them back in your fantasy view.

Tavon Austin- St. Louis
In college Austin was a mismatch seemingly as soon as he stepped onto the field. Years from now people may forget the link of Austin to quarterback Geno Smith, but Austin had a lot to do with Smith’s success. St. Louis and Sam Bradford are hoping the same will translate to the NFL. His size at just 5’8, and near 180 pounds could be a cause for alarm.

Calvin Johnson- Detroit
Yes Megatron is who he is, and will appear on almost every freak list, because he is just that. He possesses the strength, speed, and leaping ability to destroy secondaries with what ever weapon he chooses to.

Travis Benjamin- Cleveland-
The second year pro had a semi-decent rookie year with the Browns adjusting to a new quarterback and running back. By bringing in Norv Turner, Benjamin could see even more of a spike in production. He is primarily a speed threat, but Turner will figure out a way for Benjamin to have a niche in his offense.

DeSean Jackson- Philadelphia Eagles
One has to wonder if at this point in Jackson’s career if he would be better suited to be a wide receiver two in the NFL. With McNabb and Vick years ago, Jackson could get away with the deep route plays against almost any corner in the league. Nowadays it’s tougher for Jackson and that diminishes his value on the football field, and hurts the offense. From a fantasy perspective, Jackson has to be looked at as a WR3, due to his unreliability on a week to week basis.

Mike Wallace- Miami Dolphins
Wallace got his payday with Miami in the off-season. Watchful contract eyes will now be on Wallace. Will the payday cause a retreat in his performance on the field, or will he catapult the young Ryan Tannehill to another level? Wallace’s average yards per catch is sky-high and will not go away. As long as Wallace does not disappear in games and can catch around 70 to 80 balls, he will be a constant in the top twenty and likely shoot closer to the top ten/twelve fantasy wide receivers.

Others With Speed, but Not Fantasy Football Worthy
Jacoby Ford- Oakland Raiders
Trindon Holiday- Denver Broncos
Darrius Heyward-Bey- Indianapolis Colts

TIGHT END INJURY CONCERNS

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

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To start off the tight end position in fantasy football has never been deep. This off-season and extending into the preseason we are seeing an inordinate amount of first string tight ends take a seat due to injury. That brings up a new dilemma that fantasy owners are not use to. A tight end is supposed to be durable and typically we’ll see maybe one or two dot the injury list that has any fantasy relevance.

When injuries mount that leave the opportunity for someone to step in. Don’t look now but the tight end position continues to be filled with youth. Due to the brute nature of the position, some of these tight ends currently on the injury report might be limited once on the field. After all they’re non fantasy impact is to also block edge rushers in running formations, and pass protect if called upon too.

Here are some tight ends with injury bugs that you need to be on high alert of.

Age Concerns/Risks
Jason Witten- Witten is a bruiser for punishing would be tacklers in the open field. His sure hands and route running have been outstanding with quarterback Tony Romo. Often tight ends can play through injuries and keep their presence on the football field. Witten did that last year, but one has to wonder how the return year from those nagging injuries will affect him. He is 31 and a down year could be looming. The Cowboys drafted Terrence Williams out of Baylor and are loaded at wide receiver this season. Dallas also drafted Gavin Escobar with a high second round pick in this year’s past draft.

Antonio Gates- Fantasy owners now sort of expect what type of stats they’re going to get out of Gates nowadays. He is right there on the bottom part of the top ten fantasy tight ends, and is on the lower end of ten to twelve team leagues for a starter. The Chargers offensive woes have not helped, and they still have done little to surround Gates with viable receiver options.

Tony Gonzalez- His phenomenal season was out of the ordinary, as fantasy owners were waiting for the string of weeks of Gonzalez to come back to Earth to happen. They didn’t, and may not this year either with how explosive Julio Jones and Roddy White are opposite each other. Teams have to pick their poison, and right now it’s with Gonzalez.

Heath Miller- The injury woes of the Steelers have put their 2013 season in jeopardy before it even starts. Plagued by tailback, wide receiver, and tight end injuries, Big Ben, is going to have a heck of a time maintaining his own health. Miller’s return is unknown, but for now Matt Spaeth will be Big Ben’s primary target.

Dennis Pitta- Pitta’s injury was one of the first high profiled injuries of training camp and dealt a big blow for the Ravens offense. Anquan Boldin became a beneficiary of Joe Flacco as the season wore on, but if it were not for the zone Flacco was in, Boldin would have been near useless. A large majority of catches by Boldin were from precision passes from Flacco, while Pitta had the ability to get open and was Flacco’s main primary target during the entire season. Now the Ravens will look at Ed Dickson and newly signed Visanthe Shiancoe to fill Pitta’s shoes.

Fred Davis- The Redskins are one of the few teams that have an arsenal at their disposal and do not need an elite tight end. Davis has never lived up to his billing and now is more of a situational fantasy worthy tight end. Even though he is coming off injury, Washington’s offense is not going to garner him more attention. They’ll keep things the way they were running it last year. A lot of running plays and pistol formations for RG3.

Scott Chandler- Chandler was the Bills old quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick’s main threat besides Stevie Johnson. After Chandler returns from injury will have to see who either EJ Manuel or Kevin Kolb figures to target the most in the Bills offense and at tight end. Right now any Bills tight end should be on the waiver wire until further notice.

Rob Gronkowski- The Patriots are know that they have to position Gronk back slowly this go around, as another blow to his arm is going to be even harder to return from. The time table for his return has not been announced, which makes the drafting of him in high rounds risky. He should be back at some point in September, and his replacement Zach Sudfeld should be a representable fill-in minus the touchdowns for those weeks.

Dustin Keller- Keller’s blown out knee was a major blow to the Dolphins. In action in preseason, Ryan Tannehill had already hooked up with Keller on a nice touchdown pass a week prior. Someone is going to have to fill that void, and Miami may have to platoon the position until someone stands out. Charles Clay or last year’s third round pick, Michael Egnew, figure to try and snare a few passes in absence of Keller.

August 21st Tight End Rankings

Thursday, 22 August, 2013

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An ever-growing vital position is at tight end for fantasy football owners. The cream of the crop is a dandy with high caliber players that would even complement a wide receiver one statistically. After that it becomes a notorious crap shoot. Do you settle for a primary red-zone target or one that heeds yards but is non-existent in the red zone. It’s a gamble some take if they see higher value in a wide receiver two or key depth at other positions.

But if you look at the teams that succeed for fantasy playoffs it’s becoming more and more evident that they’re securing the twelve to sixteen lock points every week with a non roller-coaster tight end. Sure they’re paying the draft pick price for it. But when you scan a waiver wire for tight end value it’s just as pitiful at any point of the year.

The tight end position is invaluable, and here are updated tight end rankings after week two of the preseason.

1. Jimmy Graham
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Jason Witten
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Kyle Rudolph- Expect Rudolph to expound on last year’s statistics. He will assuredly be a top fantasy tight end surpassing the old veterans Witten and Gonzalez.
6. Vernon Davis
7. Owen Daniels
8. Antonio Gates
9. Jermaine Gresham- The wake up call has come for Gresham, and I think he will respond even with the drafting of Tyler Eifert. Before another tight end being brought it was a detractor for players currently on the roster. Teams are mixing it up more with two tight ends that are versatile. Gresham should continue to be fine and is still young enough to blossom into an even better fantasy tight end.
10. Greg Olsen
11. Jermichael Finley
12. Ed Dickson – Familiarity is often a quarterback’s best friend. Gone is Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta to injury. Insert Dickson who lacks the skillset of Pitta but has been and will be a viable option for Flacco once again.
13. Brandon Myers
14. Jordan Cameron- While the preseason hype is on Sudfeld, I believe it has more to do with the Patriots lore than anything else. Cameron has been the big surprise. The display and show he has put on is not going to end once the regular season comes. He’ll continue to do damage and be a safe keep as your TE2 or legitimate depth there as well.
15. Martellus Bennett – With the injuries plaguing and surround the tight end position, Bennett has climbed up the middle tier tight end position rankings. Now he needs to showcase that last season was not a one year wonder.
16. Brandon Pettigrew
17. Dwayne Allen
18. Zach Sudfeld
19. Jared Cook
20. Charles Clay
21. Marcedes Lewis
22. Rob Housler
23. Delanie Walker
24. Heath Miller
25. Scott Chandler
26. Fred Davis
27. Zach Miller
28. Jacob Tamme
29. Jeff Cumberland
30. Brent Celek
31. Tyler Eifert
32. Anthony Fasano
33. Zach Ertz
34. Jordan Reed
35. Tony Scheffler

Defense Rankings August 21st

Wednesday, 21 August, 2013

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Let’s just face it. Ranking defenses and special teams is growing harder and harder in fantasy football. Teams that you wouldn’t expect on a given week can jump off the board with a pick six or two, and propel a mediocre team to fantasy victory. It’s probably the one position you can get away with plugging in “any team” and getting rather lucky four to five times a year. I’m still under the belief that you want to accumulate the easy points as well and then hope for the better. Go after teams that will rank in the top ten in turnovers and sacks.

Here is a look at my new fantasy defensive rankings going into week three of the preseason. Be sure to check in during the fantasy football season for weekly fantasy football rankings.

1. Seattle
2. Cincinnati
3. Arizona
4. San Francisco
5. New England
6. Denver
7. Chicago
8. Cleveland
9. Houston
10. Pittsburgh
11. St. Louis
12. Green Bay
13. New York Giants
14. Philadelphia
15. Dallas
16. Buffalo
17. Atlanta
18. Baltimore
19. Miami
20. New York Jets
21. Tennessee
22. Washington
23. Detroit
24. Carolina
25. Tampa Bay
26. Oakland
27. Kansas City
28. Indianapolis
29. Minnesota
30. Jacksonville
31. San Diego
32. New Orleans