Power To The Backfield

Follow@cimini The BCS Championship was supposed to be a matchup of the two best teams in college football when Notre Dame and Alabama took the field. All the hype of a possible Notre Dame upset over Alabama was pushed even higher by the Notre Dame fanfare. They had beaten Stanford and Oklahoma, so seemingly they stood a chance against Alabama. Eddie Lacy’s dictated running, spin moves, and shedding of tacklers put an end to that moot point. The bowl game turned from a championship into what looked like a week one college game. A game usually dedicated to conference powers tuning up for the season with a weak opponent. The demolition derby began early and was a three hour spectacle of Alabama’s coup de grace over Notre Dame. How Eddie Lacy performed in that game with ease, surely was thought to catapult him as a first round pick. Poor draft workouts and surgery nicked his stock a little bit, but not to the dismay of the Green Bay Packers. The carousel of backs since Ahman Green had a productive season has seen the likes of Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and even Cedric Benson a year ago. Voicing displeasure surely would of happened by other quarterbacks around the league, but Aaron Rodgers is an on the field performer and not a media guy. Having success with a rookie running back has fallen from the hey days of Robert Edwards and Fred Taylor years ago. Last year though it resurrected with top backs Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, and sixth round draft pick Albert Morris all having quality seasons. Significant impact years that retrained the eyes of fantasy owners and dynasty league drafts to pay attention to a rookie running back no matter if he is drafted in the first round or not. Like Merril Hoge says a factor back is a factor. Coming into the NFL it is never guaranteed for immediate success but chances are growing now that more teams are in need for bigger depth at the running back position. Aging of backs has also caused a somewhat of a make shift of longevity in running backs lessening the opportunities of rookie backs. With the surplus of backs and cut downs on carries per game, its aging backs better. A veteran that does not see the field too much as a second or third back is going to be considered by other teams, while before teams would just rebuild through the draft. Now teams know the legs are not burnt up from their first four to five years in the league, and can count on them for a second contract. It’s sort of similar to how the NBA handles second round draft picked rookies. Contracts are not guaranteed so they make those picks fight out a roster spot with an NBA/Overseas veteran that has just as much talent. The gap has closed in the backfield for elite prospects, so why over pay for a first round running back? Eddie Lacy is trying to buck the notion that he should of fell to the second round, instead of being a first round pick. Many would want to point out the fact that Mark Ingram from Alabama has not even surpassed Pierre Thomas on the Saints depth chart. That is true, but a situation can change all of everything, and Lacy has that chance in Green Bay. With Duane Harris just going down to a season ending injury the Packers have exactly what Lacy wants. Opportunity. He gets to step in a heavy workload situation where he can either fall out of favor with the Packers quickly, or supplant himself steadily in a role the Packers have been trying to fill for years. Green Bay still has running backs James Starks and Alex Green and may utilize them early in the season if Lacy struggles. But Green Bay knows what Starks and Green can offer them and want to build away from that, not onto it. Jonathan Franklin the other rookie drafted from UCLA appears to be behind in understanding the offense so his impact will be little if any until later in the season. This predicament with Lacy can leave fantasy drafters with endless questions. To draft Lacy as their second or third back, or let him stray to unchartered waters elsewhere, and not have to worry about him altogether. I believe Lacy is vastly undervalued right now, and even more with the season-ending injury to Harris who the Packers planned on involving heavily. Let’s put the past few semi-successful running backs in Green Bay in perspective. In a passing attack that ranks top five with the best quarterback in football, James Starks and Ryan Grant had solid seasons. Starks had more of an impact in the Green Bay Packers playoff Super Bowl run because he was coming off an injury. Grant’s heyday was more with Brett Favre but he still provided solid action and results for the Packers. If those two backs can do it why not Lacy? The primary issue with Green Bay Packers running backs in the past has been injuries. Lacy has already had a few that he has had to recover from, and will need to avoid the injury bug. Being ranked anymore from the high teens to mid 20’s is where Lacy is falling for running backs. Select Lacy as your third running back and stamp trade bait and the green arrow next to him for stock rising. For where he is ranked even if he only stays your backup running back you can’t complain. But like last year’s rookie crop, I doubt he’ll stay on the bench too long.

Forty Million Dollars Later

Follow @cimini When Greg Paulus decided to re-open his recruitment to attain a last year of eligibility via a college’s graduate program, many believed Syracuse would be the school he chose. Doubts crept quickly though on how Paulus would play the position of quarterback after spending the last four years as a Duke point guard. The answer was easy. Find and throw to Mike Williams as much as you can. Paulus did just that and the two had a dynamic combination. Williams broke a Big East record with touchdowns in nine straight games and had the attention on NFL scouts. Attention that Syracuse had dropped the distinction of becoming possible for several years as a cellar team in the Big East. In a span of weeks Williams promising return from academic troubles to a productive junior season looked like it was washed away again. New head coach Doug Marrone had suspended Williams and other Syracuse player’s for violating conduct. Williams would not return to play another down at Syracuse. Tarnishing his draft stock was inevitable and did as he fell to the fourth round. Williams had a choice to make at that moment and throughout his first three seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers his name has remained out of the unwanted type of athlete news---Ticker Flash News Across ESPN. Instead he relished the opportunity to do what was correct and let his career as an NFL receiver be the only objective as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. As a rookie in 2010, Williams helped Josh Freeman to a career year with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Williams caught an astonishing eleven of Freeman’s 25 touchdowns. A new dynamic tandem had been branched together down in Florida. A tandem Florida likely has not seen from any of their teams in Jacksonville, Miami, or Tampa Bay since Mark Brunell to Jimmy Smith. That’s how bad the three franchises had been over the last five to six years between quarterbacks and wide receivers. 2011 did not fare well as a team for Tampa Bay and Williams did not play near as well with the added attention by defenses to him. It was a combination of things and Tampa Bay ultimately decided to let Raheem Morris go. Greg Schiano was brought in and anytime a new tenure is enforced changes on roster’s can happen at the drop of a dime. Vincent Jackson was signed to a mega-contract and that made Williams role even more unclear heading into the 2012 season. Playing on a rookie contract for a fourth round pick, Williams was once again faced with an opportunity to step up or have the walking papers handed to him. He rose to the occasion and put up stellar numbers as a likely WR4 or WR5 in most fantasy leagues. Fantasy playoffs are the time to shine for participants. More and more attention is being paid to athletes that can put forth a different type of season in that final stretch of the fantasy playoffs. Mike Wiliams did that and had four touchdowns in the last five games of the season. Tampa Bay did not hesitate to retain Williams as they see a bright future for him alongside Vinny Jackson. Quietly they re-signed Williams to a forty million dollar contract. Now it’s time for Williams to put the same type of work in he has throughout his years at Syracuse and Tampa Bay to prove that his contract is worthy. Vincent Jackson is a young thirty years old, so chances are high that this combination will be together for at least three to four seasons. Not too bad for an athlete that had twelve other receivers drafted ahead of him, including Arrelious Benn. A second rounder drafted by Tampa Bay who is no longer on the team, and trying to make the Philadelphia Eagles roster now.

Austin Gives Rams Two More Wins

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Diamonds in the rough for fantasy owners seeking gems on poor NFL teams may not be worth the risk. There are always a handful of teams that are not fantasy football friendly. Yardage and touchdowns are going to happen, but the pace and frequency they come by will vary to the extreme on some NFL teams. You should only have high questions on a mere one or two players that you draft. Upside is what you seek with your fantasy roster depth. For that to happen you’ll look for players that are third wide receivers on high potent offenses or maybe a rookie or two that could flourish in the second part of the season. Like Dennis Green said after blowing a fourth quarter lead on Monday Night Football , “They’re what we thought they were”. If you’re on a diet and still mixing in sweets, you fully know that you’re results are not going to be what you want. The same holds true in fantasy football. You know going into your drafts they’re certain teams to avoid. Here are teams that should be in your future fantasy football draft plans, like a planned vacation in a few years. New York Jets Yes the Jets crack this list once again. The same issues are at the forefront as last season, with question marks the size of 2009 Rex Ryan at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Santonio Holmes has played like an athlete far below where he was as a Steeler, and Stephen Hill looked like was drafted way too high for a second round pick. I can’t see the Jets having a receiver eclipse the 700 yard mark. There may be some hope at running back with Shonn Greene finally gone. Chris Ivory is just returning so will have to see how the time share works with Bilal Powell. Seattle Seahawks I can hear the die-hard Seahawks fans screaming at the fact that they’re team is listed on here. Fantasy football is about value at positions. Positionally speaking they have not been a team that has garnered value at wide receiver. Fans thought there was a chance when Nate Burelson was brought in and then Sidney Rice. Neither were successful. Then Percy Harvin was brought in but he is lost for the season. The fact is Seattle has a way of winning and it’s found that way without having a dominant receiver. Seattle has not had a receiver reach over 1,000 yards since Bobby Engram in 2007. Buffalo Bills Poor Douggie Marrone. Syracuse is looking quite nice right now isn’t it? Just two weeks ago Buffalo fans and the rest of the NFL were drawing back on their harsh criticisms of drafting EJ Manuel so high. Furthermore who some people wanted Marrone to draft, in his college quarterback, Ryan Nassib, has struggled horribly in preseason. In a quick snap Manuel went down and now Kevin Kolb. That’s forced Buffalo to potentially start an undrafted rookie in Jeff Tuel, and signing Matt Leinart. And you thought the Bills had it bad with the Trent Edwards to TO combination a few years back. Having Matt Leinart to serve as your veteran leader to provide feedback to Tuel and Manuel is a recipe for disaster. Oakland Raiders The tug of war struggles to take the first team snaps has plagued Matt Flynn again. Neither Pryor or Flynn have jumped out at me in preseason. Running the football for success like Pryor has happens when you’re down 20 plus points, like the Raideres were to the Bears. If you want to play from behind to have statistical success, than by all means, shoot for that goal. Oakland needs to address the quarterback situation by aiming for one through the draft. The carousel of rotating back and forth with Flynn and Pryor this season may be the ugliest of all quarterback situations. This may even trickle down and effect Darren McFadden more so than people may think. San Diego Chargers This team has some hope, but I need to see some early season indicator to take them off this list. Keenan Allen could be a prospect worth watching. A player of his caliber needs a solid veteran or two at receiver to help him prosper on the field. With Danario Alexander out, Robet Meachem non-existent, Eddie Royal battling issues, and Malcolm Floyd battling injuries, one has to wonder who Philip Rivers is going to throw the football too. There is a lot of names but no one truly to step in and fill the voids of three top caliber wide receivers. Antonio Gates isn’t a spry up and down quick maneuvering transformed basketball player to tight end anymore. He is slower version that relies more on his size and hands, which is a recipe for more interceptions from Rivers, as safeties and linebackers have more time to react. It’s not all horrible. Here are some teams that have been taken off the fantasy oasis of no value from 2012 to 2013. Arizona- All it took was a change over all around for the Cardinals to make a move at quarterback. As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy this should be a revitalized offense. Miami- They’ve upgraded at receiver and even though they took a blow with Dustin Keller going down, they have a solid young nucleus of talent. Kansas City- They’re barely off the bubble. But Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn put the stamp on worse offensive output possibilities last year, even over Arizona and the NY Jets. Alex Smith and the mind of Andy Reid should change things a bit. Jacksonville- Look for Jacksonville to do better than people think. Quarterback, Blaine Gabbert is just 23 years old. His mistake was likely leaving for the NFL a year early as far as for his progression on the field. It was smart in terms of dollars as he did not make the Matt Barkley mistake. Gabbert is younger than Russ Wilson (24) and Ryan Tannehill (25), and the same age as Andrew Luck and RG3 who were all drafted a year after Gabbert. Jacksonville went the old school way of building through youth and through the draft. They’ve taken a lot of down years for it, but they might have a structure ready to blossom finally.

Second Year NFL Player’s With High Return Value

A rookie in the NFL is sometimes just shown the ropes. They may have the talent but the coaching staff believes too much of a burden on the rookie could hurt the team and progression of a player in his rookie season. It may be hard to believe but not all coaches want instant success by crazy statistics. Just helping the team out with a third down catch and not dropping the football might be what he is looking for. Impactful small plays such as blocking down field, and running the proper routes is something the coaches can see that growth is being made. Year two more opportunities present themselves and depending on the length of that player’s first contract, market value is going to want to be assessed. Grooming has been done and those player’s will now get a chance to flourish even more. I’ve profiled some players that are in their second season that should be of fantasy significance from statistics they put up last season. Qualifying factors can just be a better supporting cast, an expanded role, or just signs that they’re ready for a boost from your bench to potential fantasy starter. Quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill Miami is looking for Tannehill to scale forward a bit and show an added dimension. He showed flashes last season that he is capable of doing it. Were those flashes a result of timely called plays by the offensive coordinator, or Tannehill’s innate ability to read defenses? Most of the rookies shined last year and Tannehill was not one that disappointed. Miami did not add wide receiver weapons in Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson to not test Tannehill’s arm. Brady is aging in New England, and Tannehill may be the quarterback to take over the division of the AFC East. Running Backs Vick Ballard The Colts just recently traded away Delone Carter, and many are not sure what the health of Ahmad Bradshaw will be. For now Ballard will be given the chance to be the Colts full time back. I think he will garner a double digit carry type of output in the Colts offense. Indianapolis does not shy away from trying to score, and needs to with their defense being sporadic. If Ballard can showcase that he is the number one back, the touchdowns he will get will make him a solid RB3. He’ll have to fight off Donald Brown and Bradshaw though. Bryce Brown Brown put on a nice multiple week span for owners that were a little nervous without LeSean McCoy. As of now that’s all Brown’s value is. He is a high insurance handcuff for a first round draft pick in McCoy. Though in Chip Kelly’s high octane offense he may dot the fantasy top twenty five running backs a handful of times even as Philadelphia’s second running back. Ronnie Hillman Denver has a bit of a mess at running back, and will likely have one of those dreaded back fields from a fantasy perspective. Hillman is the guy the Broncos want to have the role, but he did not prove a year ago that he can handle full time duties. Montee Ball was brought in and will be the back the Broncos go to in short yardage situations. Hillman though might have a CJ Spiller type of value. Spiller also had some short comings early with Buffalo before supplanting Fred Jackson. Keep an eye on Hillman’s yards per carry, as he does possess great open field speed. Lamar Miller Miami decided to let Reggie Bush walk away and test out Miller’s worth. They’re all in on Miller and the rest of the NFL may soon figure that out as well. Durability may be a question with Miller. Look for Miami to protect Miller by off setting his carries with Daniel Thomas who has been a disappointment thus far. Miller is one of the few backs in the NFL that will have a solid ratio of carries higher than his backup running back. Daryl Richardson If backfields tell the story over time, than St. Louis management likely made the right move by letting Steven Jackson sign with the Falcons. Over the last ten years the Rams have had Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson as their running backs. Truth be told it was amazing how long Jackson lasted their with the high amount of carries and the way he carries the football. It’s Richardson’s backfield now and fantasy owners have to be impressed with the 4.8 yards per carry he had a year ago. David Wilson Crushing news to the Giants fans and organization is that of Andre Brown being out for the season with a broken leg. Wilson must now be a factor down back instead of just a home run threat. The Giants will find someone either on their roster or on waivers to fill the cushion carries role. Wilson has to be thrilled about his current opportunity as well as fantasy owners. While the rise of impact may be great on Wilson early, keep on eye and see how he handles the role in November and December when he surpasses 200/220 carries. Wide Receivers Justin Blackmon Herman Edwards preaches on air at ESPN for athletes to stay out of trouble. I’m sure Justin Blackmon was at the rookie symposium when he was warned of the lures outside of the football field, and how to act. The symposium didn’t matter as Blackmon had a DUI issue and will miss four games to start the season. No one can tell what is going on in a player’s head. His repeat issues have to be a cause for concern, but if he is able to sidestep those issues he showed last year that he can be a force. Ryan Broyles Detroit has never shied away from testing the arm of Matthew Stafford and won’t in 2013 either. Broyles will fill the slot receiver role and should get well over 60 catches in the Lions potent attack. If he can steal a few of Calvin Johnson’s touchdowns his value goes up even more. Chris Givens Many are down on St. Louis as they’re expecting their pattern of wins/losses to revert back to a major loss season in 2013. They’ve been back and forth on the pattern since the 2009 season. They’re an infused team with youth so the fine line of winning or losing will be a small margin. Givens impressed last season and is ahead of second round draft pick Brian Quick in terms of overall value. Reuben Randle Randle did a fine job as a rookie when injuries presented themselves. The Giants are going to continue to air out the football, and as long as you’re a top three wide receiver in the Giants offense you’re fantasy worthy. Randle is that and we know Hakeem Nicks injury-history. Victor Cruz’s foot issue in preseason that is carrying into the regular season boosts Randle’s value as well. Michael Floyd Throughout the first part of the 2012 season it looked like Floyd was lost, and losing ground quickly in his first year with the Cardinals. He shook off that notion and finished the season strong with a stable of quarterbacks that were down right putrid. Carson Palmer will adjust all of the Cardinals receivers statistics in an upward direction in 2013.

Fantasy football is all about having an inside edge, and finding a sneaky sleeper or a breakout player that no one else in your league can identify. Of course, this is easier said than done. With every site online, from your fantasy league host site to Rotowire offering sleeper candidates and late round pickup ideas, it’s hard to find something that your friends and opponents haven’t already picked up on. But, in the spirit of trying, here’s a look at 10 RB sleeper candidates outside of the obvious picks of Giovanni Bernard and Eddie Lacy.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
I know, I know… MJD can’t possibly be called a “sleeper.” But look me in the eye and tell me you were considering him 1st round. The bottom line is, this guy can play, and he’s healthy, and he’s in a contract year. Betfair lists him in the top 10 best odds to lead the league in rushing, a feat he’s accomplished before. MJD is an RB1.

2. Daryl Richardson
Lost in the Steven Jackson fantasy hype is the fact that his St. Louis replacement, Richardson, is primed for a big year. He’s not an RB1, but don’t overlook him.

3. Lamar Miller
Miller is being largely overlooked, but in replacing Reggie Bush as Miami’s main back, he’s in line for a significant production bump.

4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Uh, everybody? Green-Ellis is still the starter in Cincy. Gio Bernard is deserving of the hype, but don’t overlook a starting RB option!

5. Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley is perhaps a bit over-hyped this year, following his 2012 breakout. The Pats will likely lean on Vereen at times as well. Plus, he doesn’t have Danny Woodhead around to take touches from him anymore.

6. DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart is hurt, and D-Willy will finally get to be an RB by himself this season. Sure, Mike Tolbert will vulture some TDs, and Cam Newton is the Panthers’ best runner – but look for better fantasy numbers from Williams.

7. Jonathan Dwyer
The Steelers are remarkably unsolved in the backfield, but Dwyer figures to have a strong shot at ending up as “the guy.”

8. Vick Ballard
Keep an eye on Ballard as a bench option. He’ll be backing up Ahmad Bradshaw in Indy, but Bradshaw can be fragile, and Ballard is capable of being a #1 back.

9. Danny Woodhead
Looking for a fresh start in San Diego, Woodhead will likely get a chance to shine backing up the generally disappointing Ryan Matthews.

10. LaMichael James
If Frank Gore stumbles in San Francisco, LaMichael James has the pedigree to get a shot at stealing the RB1 job. It’s no guarantee, but he’s a great draft-and-stash candidate.